Two Badass Starting Rotations
Since the break, since the CC acquisition, since anytime recently--the Brewers starting rotation has been fantastic. Lots of innings, not many runs, and best of all, little need for the bullpen. And even littler need for the less reliable members of that bullpen.
At a glance, the only NL rotation that looks better than Milwaukee's (we're talking whole season now) is that of the Cubs. Our rotation ERA is 3.90, while theirs is 3.78. Really, I'd take either one. I had high hopes for the rotation this year, but I never expected it would be this good--especially if you took Gallardo out of the mix. The same could be said of the Cubs, who expected to get solid work from Rich Hill, but had no right to expect Ryan Dempster to be a Cy Young contender.
In last night's post-game thread, grant76 asked if the Cubs rotation is really any better. It's a good question, and one that might get even more difficult to answer as CC represents a larger chunk of Milwaukee's starts and the Bush/Villanueva early-season disappointments shrink in comparison.
One obvious point for the Brewers is the sheer number of innings. Our starters have thrown 740 IP; second-best is Arizona at 717 2/3. The Cubs are 5th in the league at 704. 36 innings isn't much over the course of 120 games, but at the same time, those are innings that mean Ned can bury relievers (if only he buried the right guys!) and the guys we need are fresher when they have to pitch. There are very few teams in the history of modern baseball that wouldn't be better off if their starters went deeper into games, lessening the workload on the weakest members of the pen.
Three simple metrics to measure pitching effectiveness without getting into the muck of accounting for defense (and, in some cases, park) are homers, walks and strikeouts. Here's how the Cubs and Brewers compare:
- Homers: In 36 more innings, the Brewers starting five have given up one more home run. That gives them the edge as a rate stat: 1.03 per nine against 1.07.
- Walks: More innings, but fewer walks for our guys. Rates: 2.91 per nine for MIL, 3.32 for CHC. (It's even a little better than that: two more of the Brewers walks are intentional, and the Brewers also hit fewer guys.)
- Strikeouts: Clear edge for the Cubs, 7.26 per nine against 6.56.
Subtract intentional walks and add HBPs, and you have the components for FIP. Crunch the numbers and you get 4.31 for the Brewers, 4.39 for the Cubs. (Both are higher than actual ERAs thanks to good defense (!?) and parks that can inflate homers. I've seen home run factors for Wrigley that are all over the place, but that's a discussion for a different day.)
Long story short, we're looking at two great starting rotations. It's no surprise that these teams have the two best records in the National League, and are among the top five in baseball. Looking solely at simple peripherals, the Brewers guys may have the edge, and as I mentioned, another 8-10 starts from CC could tip the scales more conclusively.
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Harden
Wouldn’t more starts from Harden more or less offset the “tipping of the scales” (no pun intended of course) of Sabathia?
I would say that Harden makes the Cub rotation better than what they were earlier in the year, when Rich Hill was struggling.
by badgermaniac on Aug 13, 2008 12:46 PM CDT 0 recs
that's true.
I think Sabathia is likely to make more of a difference, both because he pitches deeper into games (Harden is averaging 6 IP per start in the NL) and he’s less likely to get hurt, even if we’re just talking about turn-skipping nagging injuries.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Aug 13, 2008 12:50 PM CDT
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over 40 games
Not really significant. If you figure each guy starts 8 games, we are talking about 8 innings and we all know that over that small of a sample size, anything can happen.
I think the bottom line in your comparison is that they are virtualy identical in terms of overall quality (rather than imply that the Crew will slowly eek ahead).
by badgermaniac on
Aug 13, 2008 2:51 PM CDT
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In honor of the Olympics and the fact that the title reminded me of this
“I see pride! I see power! I see a bad-ass mother who don’t take no crap off of nobody!”
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Aug 13, 2008 1:07 PM CDT 0 recs
Speaking of Ned burying guys...
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Aug 13, 2008 1:15 PM CDT 0 recs
I was really proud of that graphic.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Aug 13, 2008 1:31 PM CDT
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Great analysis Jeff
When the playoffs role around (and it sure looks like both teams will be in the playoffs) the Cubs will drop Marquis from their rotation who seems like the worst starter on either teams (today notwithstanding). It is very uncertain who the Brewers will drop and that increases the chances of a wrong decision. I think I would take the Cubs top four over our top four but again things are very close. If we had Gallardo at full strength that might change things though. I don’t see that too likely but don’t count it out.
by dixieflatline on Aug 13, 2008 1:18 PM CDT 0 recs
They've openly said that there's just not enough time for Gallardo to build his arm enough to start
I think it’s looking pretty good that he’ll be able to come out of the pen at least in the playoffs, though.
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on
Aug 13, 2008 1:38 PM CDT
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Report: Branyan on 15-day DL
with Nix taking his spot.
Looks like Counsell’s 3rd base gig is secure for now.
If Braun goes on the DL, look for Dillon to return.
40 man roster time is still a ways away…
by heybatterbatter on Aug 13, 2008 1:35 PM CDT 0 recs
The ERA are really close
The ERAs are close enough that its probably negligible, but our pitching overall has a been a bit better if you go back to May 20th when the Brewers were coming off a 5 game losing streak that left them at 20-24.
Since then the team ERA is 3.47. Which is really, really good. The Cubs are also good with 3.88 ERA over the same span.
Around that time, Carlos V was taken out of the starting lineup, Gagne stopped closing, Turnbow was sent to the minors. Bush, Parra, and Torres figured out what they were doing, McClung filled in and later CC arrived.
The two big question marks for me are Parra and Bush. If they continue to pitch as they have been, II like our chances.
Jeff is right that the it helps a lot if Mota only has to appear in 13 inning games. And Shouse doesn’t have to pitch to righties, just because the bullpen is overworked.
by grant76 on Aug 13, 2008 1:51 PM CDT 0 recs
And while the Cubs are 43-30 over that span, the Brewers are 49-27!
by grant76 on
Aug 13, 2008 1:52 PM CDT
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For as much crap as Yost takes from some fans...
You would be hard pressed to not give him some credit for how he has handled the staff this year. His decisions have been sound without being preprogrammed. He has taken some risks, but ultimately gotten the best guys into the best roles.
I was a critic of how he handled the pen last year, primarily Turnbow, but I think he deserves a solid A- grade in his staff managment this year.
by badgermaniac on
Aug 13, 2008 2:53 PM CDT
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Oh no you di-int!
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on
Aug 13, 2008 3:03 PM CDT
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Since Gagne and Mota’s best role is when a game is already decided, he hasn’t been using them in their best roles. With those two are crowding Riske and Villy out of pitching when a game is on the line, they aren’t being used in their best roles. Thankfully the Bush/McClung ‘platoon’ was a aborted before causing too much confusion, but that flaming bag of dog poo needs to be laid at Ned’s door if we are talking about rotation management.
Yost has been average, and only because he has been able to out perform in a small sample size environment.
by Getting Yosted on
Aug 13, 2008 3:18 PM CDT
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I totally disagree.
Riske’s peripherals are terrible and is no better than Gagne when it comes to ability to pitch in the late innings.
Gagne’s stuff is better than Riske’s (look at K rate. His HR/FB rate has been his big problem and some of that is just bad luck (his career % is 9%. this year, he is at 29%).
The bottom line is that when you take the guy that was signed to close and move him out of that role, that is a somewhat bold move. Moving him to mopup duty isn’t going to happen.
As for Mota, here are the games he has been pitching in:
L 0-5
W 9-0
L 2-7
L 1-7
W 6-4 (but pitched the 6th inning)
W 6-3 (pitched the 6th)
L 2-8
L 3-8
W 11-6
I don’t see a lot of high leverage situations in there.
As for McClung and Bush, it was a creative and valid way to try to accomodate a situation. I give him nothing but credit in trying it. Nobody was confused by it. He just choose to abandon it when the results weren’t there (and remember, correlation and causation are not the same thing).
EVERY manager can suffer from some hindsight management, but I will stick with my above average grade, as the positive decisions he has made greatly outweigh your minor points IMO.
by badgermaniac on
Aug 13, 2008 5:55 PM CDT
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I will say...
...that I would rather have seen them go with DiFelice or Stetter or whomever rather than spend the money on Mota in the first place (Jeff had a lot on this at the time), so I am certainly not saying he has been perfect in my mind.
by badgermaniac on
Aug 13, 2008 6:41 PM CDT
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A not-badass starting rotation
The Indians are putting Zach Jackson in their rotation. (h/t Brewerfan)
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Aug 13, 2008 7:47 PM CDT 0 recs
what are the numbers
if you take away the games against each other? I’d guess that the Cubs pitchers benefit from not having to face the Cubs more patient and superior lineup.
by James Stanley Cocanower on Aug 13, 2008 11:29 PM CDT 0 recs


















