Would you rather have Boston's entire draft or Eric Gagne?

Not only did Boston's entire draft cost approximately as much as Eric Gagne's 2008 salary, it was the most expensive draft by any team, ever.

I bring this up for two reasons (and this is really worthy of a full article, but I'm running out the door): one, teams bitch way too much about signing bonuses for their draftees. Aaron Crow went unsigned by the Nationals over a difference of a few hundred thousand dollars. Check out this article by Joe Sheehan for more perspective.

The second, related, point is whether it's ever wise to spend so much money on a gamble like that in the bullpen, where sample sizes are so small that proper evaluation is difficult. Throw in Gagne's checkered injury history and you have to wonder whether the team wasn't better off using a Dillard/DiFelice/Stetter sort of arm to fill out the pen and spending the $10M on something else--like the draft.

about 1 year ago battlekow 6 comments 0 recs |

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$10 million

Did the team pass on some guys because of signability concerns? That’s the only way having an extra $10 million to spend on the draft would make sense, wouldn’t it? After all, just because a team has more money available to sign draft picks doesn’t mean they necessarily get more high-value picks. Sure, you might not forfeit your remaining picks so early, but you’re not going to get to keep picking beyond round 50 anyway and the guys after round 40 aren’t all that expensive, right? I know the first 26 picks or whatever it was won’t sign every single season, but this year in particular, an extra $10 million would have meant those picks got some more money for signing anyway.

Speaking generally about all MLB teams, you’re probably right, but the 2008 Brewers aren’t a great example, I don’t think. Maybe asking why a rebuilding team is willing to spend $5M this year and next on a 34-year-old who has issues staying healthy at a position where you already have a health-challenged player over singing draft picks.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Aug 16, 2008 1:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

After all, just because a team has more money available to sign draft picks doesn’t mean they necessarily get more high-value picks

No, but it does mean you have the option of taking more high-ceiling picks. Tons of teams passed on Rick Porcello last year because of his price tag, and he’s looking like the best high school arm from the draft. Maybe the highest-ceiling player in the entire draft.

This year, for example, Tim Melville fell to the fifth round. If you accept the general assumption that he was at least 2nd round talent, every team passed on him three times. The Royals took him, and essentially got an extra 1st or supp-1st round pick b/c they were willing to spend the $1MM to sign him.

Maybe the Brewers didn’t like Melville for some reason, and you’re right, they aren’t the best example of this for this year, but the fact they signed their first 26 picks doesn’t at all mean that they took the best possible player in all of those spots. They took the best player who they thought would sign for the money they had budgeted, which probably, most of the time, was the same as the best player available. But I’m certain that it’s not always the same, and that where the difference between a $5MM draft budget and a $10MM draft budget can make a huge difference.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 16, 2008 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

the entire draft and bullpens

I’m just wary of expending that much money on first-round draft picks. Speaking of free agents to whom the Brewers paid too much money, David Riske was a 56th-round draft pick. (Gabe Kapler was a 57th-round pick.)

Red Sox first round picks—if you’re just looking at the ones they’ve had since the new ownership team and Theo Epstein took over in 2003, 6 have made the the major leagues. Murphy got traded for…draft picks, really. Hansen got rushed, didn’t pan out, and ended up getting traded for Jason Bay this year. Murton was part of the giant Nomar trade in 2004. It’s too early to tell if Ellsbury and Buchholz got rushed, but it’s looking that way. Jed Lowrie is being adequate—for now—but he’s not exactly a superstar. You can’t tell how these first-rounders are going to pan out. The impact players for the Sox have been coming from the lower rounds—Pedroia, Papelbon, etc.

Look at the Rays’ 1999 draft, what with Hamilton in the 1st and Crawford in the 2nd (and Waechter and McClung in the 4th and 5th)—you can’t predict human behavior, or injuries (that much) and now Carl Crawford is really the face of the franchise.

(sorry for the disjointedness, I keep getting interrupted by small child)

by morineko on Aug 16, 2008 5:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The Nationals are idiots

If they missed signing their pick over a couple hundred thousand they are incompetent, because it is going to cost them more than they balked at this year to sign their comp pick next year, and they will have missed out on a year of development for the honor. These are the reasons why the same franchises keep on fielding the same crap teams.

by Getting Yosted on Aug 16, 2008 10:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

They're not the only idiots in the deal

Aaron Crow is going to have little leverage next year in what is supposed to be a much better class for pitching. He almost certainly won’t get as much money as he was offered by the Nats this year ($3.5M). Read the details of the negotiations according to Jim Bowden.

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Aug 16, 2008 11:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes

we discussed how dumb the Nats are in the Friday night game thread. I still can’t believe they did that.

by molitorfan on Aug 17, 2008 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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