The Sheets Ceiling

by MooseHaas on Aug 26, 2008 10:30 AM CDT Comment 16 comments

Following Sheeter's incredible 2004 (237 IP, 162 ERA+), he averaged 134 2/3 innings pitched over the next three seasons, none of which really came close to recapturing that '05 magic.

Since it seems like Sheets has hit a wall of late (aside from the shutout of the Triple-A Nats on Aug. 9) I was curious to find out what his 2008 stats were up to 134 2/3 IP, and after that mark. Just to make this easier, I'm splitting this up as the first 135 innings, and the second 33.

First 135 IP in 2008

10-3, 2.87 ERA, .239 BA against, .667 OPS against, 1.13 WHIP, 58 Avg. Game Score

Second 33 IP in 2008

1-4, 4.36 ERA, .259 BA against, .678 OPS against, 1.18 WHIP, 52 Avg. Game Score

Obviously the second chunk is a small small sample, but who knows, maybe Sheets' ceiling isn't 12 wins, even though announcers love to point out that he's never won more than 12 games in his career. Maybe it's 135 innings. Although for the sake of our Wild Card bid, I really hope not.

(Do you guys think this bad stretch is an aberration, or a real problem? And how much is this affecting his impending free agency? Seems like Houston is still ready to unload the Brinks truck, but it has to at least be taking a few mil out his pockets.)

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It's an interesting issue

But just look at the peripheral numbers in the first set and second set- there’s almost no difference in them except the ERA and W-L record. Also, we’ve pointed out before that in Sheets starts number 3-8 this year, he had an ERA of 4.50 but was 3-1 because of good run support, so no one really noticed.

I’m not concerned at all, I think it’s kinda good to have a guy primed to get “hot” again as CC can’t keep up the production throughout the rest of the regular season.

Oh, and minor correction: Sheets dominant year was 2004, not 2005. ’05 was the year of the Ohka.

3 E (33, throwing, throwing, throwing)

by Jordan M on Aug 26, 2008 10:39 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

fixed the '05 to '04.

Thanks. You’re right, his WHIP really isn’t all that different, but people are batting 20 points higher against him, and although I can’t confirm it statistically, those hits seem to be less scattered than they were early on. Lately he hasn’t been bearing down in big situations, and his ERA reflects it.

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by MooseHaas on Aug 26, 2008 10:56 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think Sheets will be fine

He’s had down stretches before and even this one hasn’t been awful: he’s not walking many batters (7 BB in 33 IP) and they’re not hitting him out of the park (1 HR). It’s just those extra hits falling in and the OPS against you list shows it’s mostly singles. Also, for whatever reason he’s always had trouble in August in his career. He’ll be fine.

Manny Parra’s the guy I’d be worried about hitting the wall. He’s thrown more innings this year than any other season in his professional career and he’s been hit-or-miss since the All-Star break.

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by TheJay on Aug 26, 2008 11:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd be happy with moving Parra to the pen for a couple weeks and giving McClung and/or Villanueva some spot starts

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Aug 26, 2008 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's why I hoped they would limit his starts back in May and June

I’d agree, at least skip his spot a few times. Even if it’s only one start for Clung, it would help.

Tues: George (34, throw) Mon: George 3 E (33, throwing, throwing, throwing)

by Jordan M on Aug 26, 2008 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Parra is also the guy I'm worried about

Part of me thinks they should swap him and McClung for the next couple starts. It would give McClung a chance to get some consistent work in, and also give Parra some time off in the bullpen.

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on Aug 26, 2008 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe Sheets is fine

Maybe not.

There definitely were a couple of games recently where he didn’t have his regular fastball. It appears to be back but something to pay attention to. Sheets at 94 MPH >> Sheets at 90 MPH.

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by dixieflatline on Aug 26, 2008 11:27 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs

It's been awhile since I saw one of these

It took me a minute to remember how to read it. Looking at the stats thejay linked for Sheets career numbers and this chart, I get the feeling Sheets gets into the dog days of the season and for whatever reason becomes less effective for a handful of starts before picking it back up again to finish the season. I’m hoping the return of the fastball is a sign hat he is again coming out of that lull to finish strong.

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on Aug 26, 2008 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love those

Can you post CC’s?

Also, do you have CC’s from last year through the playoffs? It would be interesting to see if he really was fatigued during the playoffs, or if his struggles were just one of those things.

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Aug 26, 2008 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

To follow up and make sure I'm reading it correctly

We can conclude that in those two starts (three and four starts ago) where his FB velocity was down, he wasn’t dropping his arm angle, because the horizontal movement didn’t increase markedly, right? It’s interesting that two starts ago, when he got his velocity back, both his horizontal and vertical movement decreased sharply, though everything appears to have been back to normal for his last start. Maybe that portends a strong finish for him, who knows.

What’s Harden looked like since joining the Cubs?

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Aug 26, 2008 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Correct it doesn't look like his arm angle was changing in those games

Though the game after that his fastball didn’t have much rise to it.

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by dixieflatline on Aug 26, 2008 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe he's bored.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Aug 26, 2008 11:43 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

CC

That doesn’t look so good. His last start is not on this graph.

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by dixieflatline on Aug 26, 2008 12:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Scary drop in velocity…although if I’m reading this correct it corresponds almost exactly with his first Brewers start, correct? I’m curious if that means the coaching staff told him to dial it down a bit or what exactly that is about.

"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."

by MadJimiBrewha on Aug 26, 2008 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That is actually maybe what has happened

Now that you mention it. Maybe we have asked him to dial it down and throw more strikes.

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by dixieflatline on Aug 26, 2008 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here is harden

Looks like his velocity is down a bit with the cubs too. Maybe they are trying the same thing?

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by dixieflatline on Aug 26, 2008 12:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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St. Louis Viva El Birdos	91	71	.561	0	Lost 6
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