Thursday's Frosty Mug
by KLSnow on Aug 28, 2008 8:55 AM CDT
38 comments
I read 246 baseball blogs and websites this morning, and all I got was this lousy collection of links.
Win Expectancy Graph
BR Box Score
So apparently, for seven innings last night, the game wasn't big enough for the Cardinals. A home win and moving up in the Wild Card standings. Then Carlos Villanueva wiggled off the hook and got excited. Does anyone really believe that's what "woke up" the Cardinals? Tom H., Jim Powell and Big League Stew seem to think so. Defensive Indifference says the Brewers went 10-5 against the Cards this season because they waited until the final game to wake Pujols up.
Maybe before next season, we can all purchase t-shirts designed specifically for untucking so we can further perpetuate this inconceivable slight to all great things in the history of baseball and mankind. Or the people who complain about such things will get a life.
Moving on. Jon Heyman weighs in on how teams will handle players with options for next season. He predicts the Brewers will exercise their option on Mike Cameron. The fact that he's hitting .431/.491/.824 over his last 14 games has moved that option from a question mark to a lock.
Mat Gamel hit his first AAA home run yesterday, but amazingly enough, it wasn't the game's biggest story: Tony Gwynn Jr. hit a walk-off home run to win it.
The Brewers held steady at 7th in the most recent Bugs and Cranks power rankings.
Finally, Viva Cerveceros wrote a touching coming-of-age tale about friendship, sacrifice...and bobbleheads.
On injuries:
Mets IF Ramon Castro has been placed on the DL with a quad injury.
Josh Hamilton was scratched from Wednesday's lineup with an abscessed tooth that will require a root canal.
Today, once again, we have reason to rejoice in the fact that the Brewers didn't draft a Scott Boras client in the first round. Hyzdu Headquarters has a pretty good summary of the situation involving the Pirates and their first round pick, Pedro Alvarez, and his agent, (who else?) Scott Boras. Alvarez has yet to report to the Pirates, and Boras is claiming his contract was approved too late to be valid. Under baseball's rules, this should mean Alvarez didn't sign and sits out a year...but Boras is trying to wiggle into getting the Pirates to offer more money. Baseball Digest Daily has a message for Pedro Alvarez, but I think the broader message needs to be sent out to every prospective draftee for 2009: If you want to play baseball, find a different agent.
Four former Brewers are on the move, all covered within this link:
- The Braves signed Elmer Dessens.
- The Orioles activated Greg Aquino off the DL yesterday and designated him for assignment.
- The Mets recalled Robinson Cancel and Nelson Figueroa.
Oh, and the Rays won their 80th game last night, in front of a home crowd of 12,678.
Drink up.
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I didn't see the game last night
Did Villy point to the dugout before Pujols became irate? Or was Pujols just mad at Villy for pumping his fist? Either way, I don’t understand why every little thing offends the Cardinals. Even in a St. Louis beat writers blog he complains about the untucking of the shirts and how it truly offends the opposing teams.
by brewfan2 on Aug 28, 2008 9:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
No
I did not see Villy do anything more than pump his fist before Princess Albert got offended and started shouting profanities. If only the Brewers could be more professional like the Cardinals and throw their helmets on the ground, and bean players for doing the exact same type of showboating that they do on a nightly basis, then maybe the Cardinals wouldn’t have won last night.
What a bunch of whiny bastards – Cardinals and the Cardinals beat writers alike. If I was a Cardinals fan today, I would be more dissappointed that my team of girls was still 3.5 games out of the wild card, than excited by the fact that a second-tier reliever got excited about a strike out , which “caused” my team to get excited enough to win the game.
by tosabrewfan on Aug 28, 2008 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
If it takes an opposing player to “wake them up,” I guess there’s not much veteran leadership down in the Lou.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Aug 28, 2008 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
too bad it's over
I personally am kind of happy that we have this new rivalry with the Cardinals. They’re in the division, pretty close to us geographically and in the standings…I think it should be fun the next few years if both teams stay good.
And especially if we can go 10-5 against them every year.
YoGanna win with Gallardo on the mound.
by Griswald on Aug 28, 2008 9:49 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
So BP's postseason odds says that lost cost us less than 4% playoff chances
Linky. I mean it still was a big game because a loss by the cardinals and instead of picking up that ground they would have lost it but I’ll still take were the Crew is sitting at the moment.
by dixieflatline on Aug 28, 2008 10:15 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Which is odd. . .
. . . considering that Tuesday’s win gained us a little more than 6%.
by tosabrewfan on Aug 28, 2008 10:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not really odd
The Brewers have the same lead they did before the two games, and there are now less games to play.
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Aug 28, 2008 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's odd
I understand they have less games, but by your logic, if the Brewers and Cardinals both win on Friday, the Brewers playoff chances would improve by approximately 2%. I’m willing to place money on that not being the case.
by tosabrewfan on Aug 28, 2008 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe the first win
also negated the possibility of the Cards pulling even in the season series (which would have lead to additional tie-breakers favoring the Cards?)
but I don’t see anything wrong with a steady-in-the-standings changing the balance 2% (or 1.5% rounded up). There are fewer than 30 games left and it’s got to get to 100% for one team or the other somehow.
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 28, 2008 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Season series was 9-4 before these two games
I suspect the fact the Mets and Phillies split their past two games contributed to the Brewers’ chances going up as well.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Aug 28, 2008 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
also
it’s based on more than W-L. It takes a complicated version of Pythag into account. We split the series, but we “won,” 15 runs to 5.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 28, 2008 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty sure they use Patriot's Pythag.
Which is:
RSx/(RSx+RA^x)
Where x is (RS/G+RA/G)^.287
The complicated part is that they use Equivalent Runs instead of actual runs scored and runs allowed. EqR is basically a linear weights formula, and not a bad one. They also adjust EqR by quality of opponent.
by cwyers on Aug 28, 2008 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
they use something like that.
though I strongly doubt it’s Patriot’s. It might be very similar numbers, but derived by Davenport.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 28, 2008 6:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think by "Patriot's Pythag"...
cwyers meant that Davenport now uses that method as the basis for the BP calculations rather than his own, as indicated in the BP glossary.
by Zeyes on Aug 28, 2008 8:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right.
After further review, I (Clay) have come to the conclusion that the so-called Smyth/Patriot method, aka Pythagenpat, is a better fit. In that, X=((rs+ra)/g)^.285, although there is some wiggle room for disagreement in the exponent. Anyway, that equation is simpler, more elegant, and gets the better answer over a wider range of runs scored than Pythagenport, including the mandatory value of 1 at 1 rpg.
Davenport previously had his own Pythagorean variant, Pythagenport, which is no long in use. There were references to Pythagenport in the 2008 annual, I believe, but that was an error on the part of the editors.
by cwyers on Aug 28, 2008 10:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
They have editors?
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Aug 28, 2008 10:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you want to play baseball, find a different agent?
How many Scott Boras clients were there in the draft and how many of those guys aren’t playing now? Boras is annoying and this grievance sounds stupid, but I don’t get why top draft guys should pick a different agent because of one case and angry fan reaction.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Aug 28, 2008 10:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Right, but why risk being the one disaster?
Lost in the shuffle of all of this: Alvarez’s contract was submitted and approved before another Boras client, Eric Hosmer. If Boras successfully argues that Alvarez’s contract is invalid, he invalidates Hosmer’s too. The problems with Boras are hardly one case and angry fan reaction. There’s a guy like this, if not more, every year.
It’s not that Boras’ clients aren’t getting drafted, because someone is dumb enough to sign up for that headache every year. But they are holding out longer and settling their own development back. If Pedro Alvarez signed after the draft, maybe he loses a million, but he also starts his trek to the big leagues right away, and he’s one step closer to starting his arbitration clock, reaching free agency, etc. Instead, he’s sitting at home. And if he loses a year of development over this, his grand-scheme loss is going to be much greater than a million.
Hence my decision to call it "screwing around" as opposed to "in-depth study."
by KLSnow on Aug 28, 2008 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've heard Hosmer and the Royals got a deadline extension
Yes, there’s usually a Boras client holdout each year but those guys usually end up playing, don’t they? Sure, it’s possible a guy costs himself money by setting his development back and perhaps also moving his arbitration clock back, but if we’re going to project into the future, isn’t it just as possible that the same guy could blow out his knee in AA ball? Holdouts piss off fans, but if I’m a top draft pick, it’s still going to take me at least four and likely five healthy years anyway to make a seven-figure salary in baseball, so why wouldn’t I try and eke out more money at the cost of a couple months?
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Aug 28, 2008 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How the mighty have fallen
“Braves sign Elmer Dessens”
Wow if that is not a sign of hitting rock bottom right up there with waking up naked in an alley I do not know what is. ;)
If Loving CC is wrong I do not want to be right
by WSB Chris on Aug 28, 2008 11:10 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
from the subject of your comment
I thought you were talking about Aquino being DFA’d. It’s got to be all part of a day’s work for him by now.
by keephopealive on Aug 28, 2008 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That TGjr HR was a center field shot
Nashville’s CF is 400’. There were a 2 or 3 other HRs that game. Me thinks it was the proverbial meatball dinner.
by ol Pete on Aug 28, 2008 11:31 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
some nice photos from last night's game
For some reason Yahoo doesn’t have them yet, but I check here as well.
by ol Pete on Aug 28, 2008 11:38 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
can't help myself
Some perspicacious thoughts on untuckage:
Pulling out shirtails as a team is a collective show of showmanship- even if it has some meaning to the team doing it.
That was in the comments in the St. Louis paper that Tom H. linked to in his blog. Another funny comment was when a native called the author “Marrioti-esque.”
by ol Pete on Aug 28, 2008 12:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I wonder
Do St. Louis fans also consider a team scoring more runs than the Cardinals in Busch Stadium showing up the home team?
Did Villanueva ever actually point in the St. Louis dugout? I don’t remember that, but maybe if Albert Pujols says it enough times it becomes true.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Aug 28, 2008 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Full quote from the St. Louis beat writer
One more thing: I don’t understand the Brewers. I just don’t. Really, I admire that team and its talent. Doug Melvin is one of the best guys in the game and an excellent GM. There are so many good players on that roster. But why do the Brewers always have to pull stunts? Why do they have to go knucklehead on us so often? What’s up with yanking their shirts out of their pants on the field as soon as they win a game, which, despite what they claim, really is an insult to the other team? What’s up with some of the showboat HR trots? What’s up with a journeyman like Villanueva gesturing wildly and cursing in the direction of the STL dugout? I don’t understand why this talented team feels that it needs to act up like NBA bad boy Ron Artest, or something. I don’t understand why this Milwaukee team feels the need to be controversial. I don’t understand the arrogance, considering that the Brewers have won NOTHING since 1982. And I don’t understand how Yost continues to allow it to happen. The Brewers will probably make the playoffs. They are that good. But we must ask: can you fellas at least hold off on the showboating until you actually win something?
Dude, what about the part where Braun got drilled in the ribs and didn’t bitch about it, in addition to about the 10 other things the Cards did that we’ve covered already?
Tues: George (34, throw) Mon: George 3 E (33, throwing, throwing, throwing)
by Jordan M on Aug 28, 2008 3:14 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Also
he calls Villanueva a journeyman- give me a break- and then calls out the Brewers for showboat HR trots. Braun’s homer in this series he sprinted like a madman to first, and Pujols is on his team and it takes him a couple minutes to leave the batter’s box sometimes.
Tues: George (34, throw) Mon: George 3 E (33, throwing, throwing, throwing)
by Jordan M on Aug 28, 2008 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
this guy doesn't seem to care about accuracy or complete reporting
I doubt it would do any good to email him, but if anyone feels motivated, the address at the St. Louis Post Dispatch for letters to the editor is letters@post-dispatch.com
by ol Pete on Aug 28, 2008 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I e-mailed the guy this morning
Here is my response (Sorry it’s so long)
As a Brewer’s fan, I came to your website to read the Cardinals’ perspective on the game last night. I had no issues with your blog until I read the last paragraph. I think the “stunts” you refer to are a young ballclub that likes to have fun when they play. Occasionally it borders on showmanship and arrogance (Braun’s and Hall’s home run trots in the July series, though Pujols himself admitted that there is nothing wrong with that), but they are doing it because they enjoy the game. I think the Cardinals, team, fans and writers included, read too much into these “stunts.” Whatever the actual reason for untucking their jerseys after the game, it is not about showing up the other team, it is about celebrating a victory, a team unity thing, no different than a Mile High Salute or a Lambeau Leap.
On top of that, what about the stunts that the Cardinals pull – drilling Braun in the ribs, Glaus screaming at the ump, Molina talking to Braun when he struck out in the last inning. Personally I don’t have a problem with any of it. It’s part of the game and it makes it more fun. What I have a problem with is that the Cardinals and their fans acting as though every action is intended to slight them, and that they are the guardians of baseball sanctity. I agree, the Brewers have not won anything yet, but they are a young baseball team that continues to improve and they are enjoying it. As you said, the Cardinals are professionals, they don’t need a reason to get excited for a big game this time of year. So quit worrying about what the Brewers are doing and how it might be deemed offensive and have some fun over the last month of the season.
Here is his response:
Thanks. Enjoy the rest of the season.
Bernie
by PDUBS1216 on Aug 28, 2008 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Here's another guy who emailed him
Here’s what St. Louis’s beat writer, Bernie, said to him, no joke:
Congratulations on discovering that Milwaukee has a baseball team.
Good to see all the bandwagon Brewers fans remove their tongues from Brett Favre’s backside.
Good luck!
B
Tues: George (34, throw) Mon: George 3 E (33, throwing, throwing, throwing)
by Jordan M on Aug 28, 2008 6:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
um...Brett Favre?
what’s his sheltered ass have to do with any of this?
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 28, 2008 7:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You must be doing something right
If you can get that far under the skin of the teams you beat for, despite what they claim, pretty innocuous stuff.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Aug 28, 2008 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The undercurrent of all this seems to be...
that the Cardinals and its fans consider themselves a “professional team/fanbase”, as opposed to whatever they believe the Brewers are. As in many areas, “professional” comes across as “we don’t really like baseball (any longer)” to me. Oh well, it’s their loss.
by Zeyes on Aug 28, 2008 8:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jeffress Epic Fail
2/3 inning, 6 hits, 6 runs, 6 earned. Can’t get out of the first inning for H-Ville.
Tues: George (34, throw) Mon: George 3 E (33, throwing, throwing, throwing)
by Jordan M on Aug 28, 2008 7:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 11.21.2009 at 4:31 AM CST)
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