J.J. Hardy
by Medford5 on Aug 6, 2008 2:32 PM CDT
45 comments
I have a question for Brewers Fans. I'm a Red Sox fan who is interested in knowing what the general consensus about J.J. Hardy is. Is he someone that would or could be considered for a trade this offseason? Is he worth trading for if you were a team in need of a shortstop? I know the Brewers have Alcides Escobar coming up through the system and I have heard Hardy could be then moved to third. I know with the Brewers being a small market team that cost effectivness is a priority and Prince Fielder signing and young pitching I would guess be more of a need long term than Hardy. Would you as a fan base think the Brewers would be willing to move Hardy for a young pitcher say a Justin Masterson and 2b/3b Jed Lowrie? With Sheets and Sabathia most likely moving on a good young pitcher in Masterson and good young 2b/3b in Lowrie, who would be under the teams control for 5+ years, would seem logical for Hardy who only has 3 more years of arbitration left. Does this type of trade make sense for the Brewers in your opinion? Do you think Hardy is even worth it? Please comment and let me know.
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My only comment is that while yeah, they’re not a large market team, they’re certainly not the Marlins any more with a $90+ mil team. They wouldn’t be moving Hardy to save money.
by warwick5s on Aug 6, 2008 2:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Plus I think he's been playing well enough this season that they won't want to get rid of him anytime soon
"Brett Favre looks like a man in a parking lot playing with boys." - John Madden
"Pujols just unloaded." - Bob Uecker
by kirbir on Aug 6, 2008 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes I can see Hardy being traded.
I think that he has a great glove and a average bat. I would expect nothing short of a quality young SP in return. I don’t know what his ‘value’ is on the trade market, but I am sure that Doug Melvin will find out in the December meetings. I don’t think that he will be our SS next year with Escobar coming up. He will either be at either 2B/3B or he will be playing for another team.
Like warwick said though, he won’t be traded just to avoid his salary. If he is traded, it will be because Melvin got a very good return on investment.
by Saberilliterate on Aug 6, 2008 2:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I could see him being traded, though I think it would make a lot of fans sad. Count me as one of them after seeing him bust his ass on the defensive end during the Cubs series that saw plenty of guys choking with the glove. But then again, I always like some quality SP.
"I think this decision could go either way," Baseball Tonight legal analyst John Kruk said.
by ZTK Always on Vacation on Aug 6, 2008 2:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Some more analysis
JJ’s defense is very good but not great. He’s going to make all of the plays right at him and his throws are very strong and almost always perfect. With that being said, he won’t make many spectacular plays and you’ll rarely see him make a diving stop.
As for his bat, when JJ is hot, he is unstoppable and carries the team. He not only turns into one of the best hitters at shortstop, but one of the best in the league. However, when he’s not seeing the ball well, his slumps are pretty tough to watch. He hits a lot of weak ground balls to short and third. His season numbers are typically carried by the one or two hot streaks that he has in the year.
I think he is trade-able and he could be very good at Fenway. A good young pitcher is definitely worthy of a JJ Hardy. My guess is that the pitcher would have to be a 3 or 4 type of pitcher. If a trade happened, many Brewer fans would be really upset, but that’s baseball.
by brewfan2 on Aug 6, 2008 2:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
To answer the Red Sox fan’s question, I think Hardy is generally viewed positively amongst Brewer fans and he’s defintely a fan favorite. He’s great defensively and can carry a team when he is hot . We don’t have any more Gallardos or Parras is the system (or at least any that are close to being in the big leagues) so a trade would make sense, I just don’t think it would be this off-season
If everything goes right Escobar will be the SS of the futrue, there’s no question about it, but I think we will probaby have to wait until 2010 to see it. The other players they sign will play a big role in whether or not they move Hardy. If they can’t get Fielder (which I don’t think they can) I could see Gamel moving over to 1B because we all know he has some problems defenisvely at 3B. Then I can see Hardy taking over at 3B. I don’t see Hall being here too much longer
Weeks had a good day today but he just hasn’t produced like he was supposed to. He’s a gamble defenisvely and he isn’t a good hitter. I don’t want to see him signed and I don’t think it will happen either. There also aren’t a lot of great second base prospects in the system so if they don’t sign Weeks I can see Hardy at 2B.
Escobar is supposed to be like some kind of god at SS, but I think Hardy is definately worth it to move him to a new position.
Hardy has been one of my favorite player since I became a die-hard fan a few years ago and I would definately be disappointed to see him go and so would a lot of fans, but I can see him being traded. But the Red Sox are my second favorite team so if he was traded, I wouldn’t mind seeing him go there.
I don’t know much about Justin Masterson or Jed Lowrie, could someone enlighten me?
by brewersbitch on Aug 6, 2008 4:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Masterson and Lowrie
Since the Red Sox are your second favorite team this is a great site … http://www.soxprospects.com/
by Medford5 on Aug 7, 2008 8:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be honest ...
... I think JJ is our hottest trade asset right now. He’s having a solid season - after being an All-Star last year - and if even if you’re a medium-market team, you have to make your best effort to sell high when you have the opportunity.
People always talk about Prince being on the chopping block, but why not hold him for another year and hope he hits 50 dongs again, rather than trade him after a season in which he might not even hit 40? With Escobar waiting in the wings, I think JJ is our best option to go. Plenty of people would like to ditch Rickie Weeks, but unless you find a moronic GM, you’re not going to get a lot of value out of that.
We’re going to need to address the pitching situation next year if we want to even consider making another playoff run. Gallardo-Parra-Suppan is not gonna get us there. CC will go to the Angels, Sheets to the Astros, and we’ll have to get something in a trade.
Proudly rock your Tararrel in public.
by MooseHaas on Aug 6, 2008 4:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree with Talking Moose
(Time to get a new hat!)
I think Hardy’s perceived value (both offensively and defensively) is actually higher than his actual value, especially when we have his replacement already waiting. Plus, if Escobar needs another year or so, there is someone on the team whose natural position is shortstop, lest we forget.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Aug 7, 2008 12:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
One thing I didn't consider, though
is the revenue the Brewers would lose from women who purchase Hardy shirt from the team store. It’s possible that JJ’s entire salary is paid from t-shirt sales.
Proudly rock your Tararrel in public.
by MooseHaas on Aug 6, 2008 4:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Au contraire, mon frere
I’d argue that the women who would warm up with JJ anytime have already purchased their Hardy jerseys. They’re waiting for the next cute Brewer baseball player to come along, so they can shelve their JJ jerseys next to their Scotty Po jerseys.
The longer JJ stays on the team, the longer we have to wait for that revenue to be realized. :)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Aug 7, 2008 12:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
So why don't all of the scouting reports on BCB
include a hotness rating for our prospects, in regards to their potential for apparel sales to females? All the crap I’ve read from these Huntsville and WV dispatches is about baseball skills. Let’s get more comprehensive, people!
Proudly rock your Tararrel in public.
by MooseHaas on Aug 7, 2008 12:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds like a job for Battlekow
during his prospect interviews. (BCB: How hot are you? Hotsy-totsy, or hotsy-notsy?)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Aug 7, 2008 1:22 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hardy probably is the hottest trade asset right now...
but any guesses as to what we could get for Billy Hall? He’s decent defensively and he’s got power.
by brewersbitch on Aug 6, 2008 4:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
think about the number of teams that could use a quality SS
There are a lot. In essence the Red Sox would be bidding along with the other teams.
Also, Escobar is young. He would benefit from another year in the minors.
by ol Pete on Aug 6, 2008 4:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Incidentally
Hardy doesn’t have three more arb years left; he’s going to be a FA after the 2010 season.
by Zeyes on Aug 6, 2008 5:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The Brewers are getting a 121 sOPS+ from SS
Craig Counsell has about 12 starts there, and he drags it down. JJ is 4th among MLB shortstops in OPS, and he’s above average with the glove- not great range but a really good arm. He’s a valuable trading chip.
I see the match here, certainly. Masterson would be a nice guy for the Brewers to add. I don’t think Melvin would be interested in Lowrie- there Brewers have enough depth at third with Mat Gamel and Weeks isn’t going anywhere soon. If you could sub in another pitcher for Lowrie, I’d like the deal better.
And neck size to baby eating ratio.
by Jordan M on Aug 6, 2008 5:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Mat Gamel is a “third baseman”, not a third basemen.
by HRF on Aug 6, 2008 9:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The point is that it would be silly to waste part of Hardy's value
on a guy like Lowrie who would block Gamel at third. Lowrie could probably hit enough for second, we have plenty of shortstops, and Gamel’s at third. So I would be advocating getting another pitcher if we dealt Hardy to Boston.
I know what you mean on Gamel though. I’d like to see them have him try it for as long as possible, however, because I don’t think he’d hit enough to be an above-average first basemen and there might not be a spot for him in the outfield. Maybe some time at AAA next year could fix his yips.
And neck size to baby eating ratio.
by Jordan M on Aug 6, 2008 9:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that I’d rather get another starting pitcher out of the deal instead of Lowrie. With that said, I don’t see the trade blocking Gamel as as much as I would love it I don’t see him sticking at third.
If I’m trading any of our young players, I’m trading Hart to make way for Gamel in the OF.
by HRF on Aug 6, 2008 10:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trade Hart?!
No. He’s a five-tool player! Other than the slump he was recently in he’s been the most consistent player all year and he’s still their best player with RISP.
by brewersbitch on Aug 6, 2008 10:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Corey Hart by month:
APRIL: .295/.358/.421/.780
MAY: .306/.342/.519/.861
JUNE: .265/.292/.588/.881
JULY: .265/.301/.439/.740
Given the option of trading Hart, Hardy or Prince this offseason… I’m all about trading Hart. He’s 26, has shown a steadfast refusal to walk and is way off the pace of his last season, which was better than his career minor league line. Normally one doesn’t see batters all of a sudden getting to the Majors and hitting better against MLB pitchers than they do against Minor league pitchers.
I’d prefer waiting until after next season to see if he can be that close to .880 OPS guy he was last year who walked a fair bit and, for all intents and purposes, raked. But if it’s a repeat performance of this year… his OBP is a liability with a lineup that already has a corner outfielder with an OBP dependent upon his BA.
But back to the consistent part, 100 point swings aren’t exactly the most consistent thing in the world. But, anyways, all MLB players are subject to distribution of hits in an inconsistent manner. Enough that one might be called ‘streaky’ or ‘consistent’. That’s just how things are with probability. It’s also why RISP is a relatively useless stat: it’s a small sample size coupled with the almost arbitrary selection of that size all while being still a slave to probability distribution.
Look at the Cubs. They’re ‘consistent’ because top to bottom they all get on base. If it’s not Ramirez getting on it’s Lee or De Rosa or whoever. Everyone in that lineup gets their chances at bringing runs from 1 through 9. Where you contrast them with the Brewers, you see a team reliant on the longball to punctuate scoring opportunities because they just don’t have the OBP skills to chain together rallies. They have to hope that the distribution of hits that night or day or week or month all fall in the same area more so than a team like the Cubs because they get on base so fewer they have to maximize their opportunity each and every time up which has been proven is not a repeatable skill or anything that can be routinely counted upon.
by HRF on Aug 6, 2008 11:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
they have the option of trading anyone they want
I’d say its far likelier that they trade JJ or Prince than Hart. He is a high value, well rounded low cost player. My guess is they don’t trade any of them.
I can’t follow you when you move through Corey’s month by month stat line which you declare as a liability. Then something about streaky and consistent into something about probability theory. Then RISP is a relatively useless consideration. And something about probability theory again.
by ol Pete on Aug 7, 2008 12:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not declaring it a liability. I was just showing the data to illustrate that he hasn’t been consistent. The rest was a ramble on how useless RISP is for gauging the worth of one player.
by HRF on Aug 7, 2008 12:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
J.J. Hardy's major league line is better than his career minor league line
So is Bill Hall’s, and Ryan Braun’s, and Hanley Ramirez’s, and Dan Uggla’s, and James Loney’s, and Geovany Soto’s, and Robinson Cano’s, and (for a curveball) Jorge Cantu’s, etc. Not all of those players are great, but it does happen that some guys hit better in the majors than they did in a number of years in the minors mashed together.
Over his career, Hart’s major league line is actually a little worse than his minor league line. He hit very well in AAA in ‘05 and ‘06, so I don’t know where the idea he’s better in the majors than he was in the minors comes from. I’m also not sure why you’d want to use what he did in AA ball five years ago against him (since it’s in his career minor league line) anyway, but whatever. It’d be nice if he drew a few more walks and could hit the same month-to-month (like an elite hitter), but he’s a pretty darn good player anyway.
If Hardy is traded, they have a guy who can step in and play short. If Hart’s traded, they’ve got to replace him through free agency, moving players to new positions, or other trades.
Either way, I guess it’s a good “problem” to have.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Aug 7, 2008 1:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hart’s career Majors line: .284/.333/.501/.834
Career Minors line: .299/.356/.499/.855
I had a long reply typed up after this but I just erased it as I’m rethinking my stance.
Where Escobar won’t be Hardy on offense he’ll make up for it on defense. Allegedly. So whatever they turn Hardy for is free production. I guess my hold up has been Hart’s unwillingness to walk when we already have a corner outfielder of the same predisposition. But he still has a .281 EQA.
...I think I got too hung up on Hardy being the better player instead of thinking about which trade could help the team more. I guess I’ll close with, yes, you’re right, Hardy should probably be moved before Hart as it’s a guaranteed improvement as he’ll fetch more than Hart would. But I’d also like to say if the trade on the table is the same as for Hart as it would be for Hardy I’d shat a brick if Hardy goes before him.
Good talk.
by HRF on Aug 7, 2008 2:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Career minors line
Again, why does it really matter what Hart did in rookie, A, and AA ball five years or more ago? I don’t get why treating his stats as an 18-year-old in rookie ball exactly the same as his stats as a 23- and 24-year-old in AAA is a good idea.
You can trot out the cumulative numbers that show he’s hit better in the majors than in the minors, but that doesn’t change the fact he’s not the only active young player like that (I gave a list of them). Also, I hope you don’t mind me asking where this consistency Hart lacks exists in J.J. Hardy. Hardy’s been just as inconsistent or worse.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Aug 7, 2008 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ask any girl fan you know.
JJ is definitaly the “hottest” trade asset we have.
by NoahJ on Aug 6, 2008 7:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
My wife prefers Braun.
But then she married me so her judgment is obviously off…
FDR can suck it. - Jeff Sackmann
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 6, 2008 8:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought of that.
But, alas, most do not consider Braun a trade prospect.
Thankfully.
by NoahJ on Aug 6, 2008 8:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
True.
FDR can suck it. - Jeff Sackmann
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 6, 2008 9:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hypothetical
I wonder what Braun would fetch if he were to be traded. With his contract, age, and stats I would assume he would be worth multiple top level prospects.
"He's been very, very impressive," Yost said. "I mean really impressive. I mean really, really impressive."
by MadJimiBrewha on Aug 6, 2008 9:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
given the contract
it would take a nearly unprecedented package to get him. Probably literally unprecedented—players as good as Braun were probably traded at some point in the past, but long enough ago that there’s no good parallel for his cost-certainty in today’s baseball economics.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 6, 2008 10:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Rays...
...are probably the only team that could put a package together.
I wonder if they’d give up Price.
If not… Desmond Jennings, Reid Brignac, Wade Davis… maybe more.
by HRF on Aug 6, 2008 10:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Honestly, that's not nearly enough
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Aug 7, 2008 1:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hypothetically speaking I would riot if he was traded to the Rays and David Price was not coming back.
by HRF on Aug 7, 2008 1:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
is it a riot if only one person goes nuts?
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 7, 2008 7:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Aug 7, 2008 8:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or in prison.
Especially if a burning matress or flying excrement is involved.
FDR can suck it. - Jeff Sackmann
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 7, 2008 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not so much
I have wonderful judgement :)
"Brett Favre looks like a man in a parking lot playing with boys." - John Madden
"Pujols just unloaded." - Bob Uecker
by kirbir on Aug 6, 2008 11:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Masterson and Lowrie for Hardy?
Done in two seconds. That’s an overwhelming offer of Major League Ready, four star prospects. Three service years of Hardy for Ten of Lowrie and Masterson? No brainer.
In 97 ML at bats Lowrie is going .289/.342/.423. Minors this year: .268/.359/.434, minors last year over AAA and AA: .298/.393/.503.
Masterson this year in MLB: 62 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 47 SO 29 BB. A sinkerballer. Three seasons in the minors: 233.1 IP 193 SO 59 BB 1.17 WHIP.
Sorry JJ.
by HRF on Aug 6, 2008 9:59 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd almost do that deal for Masterson alone...
though, can always have more pitching prospects. Lowrie wouldn’t be bad, but doubt the Red Sox would be THAT desperate for a SS to ship a top notch pitcher like Masterson with Lowrie, who could just as easily be JJ in Boston.
Gotta say though, Masterson is a guy like Grienke I’d love to watch at Miller Park :]
by Lavender on Aug 7, 2008 7:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
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83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
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