Brew Crew Ball: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Sean Keeley's Week 12 College Football Buffet

The Truth About Space Coast

The conventional wisdom about Space Coast Stadium--the home of the Brevard County Manatees--is that it's a pitcher's park.  More specifically, it's "death to right-handed power."

The first assertion--that it's a pitcher's park--is easy to test.  Dan Szymborski's minor league park multipliers list Brevard with a run multiplier of 0.96, which translates to a run factor of 0.92 -- quite pitcher-friendly, but not historically so.  Surprisingly, Szym's HR multiplier is 1.04, indicating that hitters are more likely to go deep at Space Coast than elsewhere in the FSL.

Now, these factors are relative to the rest of the Florida State League, which is itself pitcher-friendly.  For hitters, the FSL and the California League--though both are Advanced A--are completely different levels.  The FSL is nearly as difficult as Double-A; the Cal league is barely more challenging than low A.  The Carolina league, also Advanced A, is in between, though much closer to the FSL.

Long story short: in the three year period 2005-07, Space Coast was  pitcher-friendly for an FSL park; it's quite pitcher-friendly compared to, say, an average Cal league park.

According to some numbers I just ran, it's quite a bit worse this year.  The run factor is about the same, at 0.94 -- 6% fewer runs are scored at Space Coast than in a neutral FSL park.  All extra-base hits, though, are off by about 15%.

Considering Handedness

As far as I know, no one has ever looked at righty/lefty specific park factors in the minor leagues.  It's important, as some minor league parks are quirkier than major league parks, both in dimensions and the immediate environment.  (Wind patterns make the difference in Brevard.)

I delved into the play-by-play that drives Minor League Splits to find the answer.

Looking only at 2008 results for the moment, the difference between righty batters at Space Coast and lefty batters at Space Coast is dramatic:

  • RHB: 0.83 run factor, 0.81 2B/3B factor, 0.69 HR factor
  • LHB: 1.19 run factor, 0.98 2B/3B factor, 1.21 HR factor

Since single-year handedness samples are even smaller than single-year overall samples, it's important that we use additional years of data.  Weighting the last three years 5/3/2 (with 2008 weighted 5), here are the equivalent results:

  • RHB: 0.88 run factor, 0.84 2B/3B factor, 0.77 HR factor
  • LHB: 1.05 run factor, 0.89 2B/3B factor, 1.00 HR factor

Not nearly as dramatic, but it continues to drive home the point about right-handed power.  The conventional wisdom is right on the money.  The FSL is a pitcher's league, and for righties, hitting at Space Coast is worse than MLBers have it at Petco.

The prospects this most strongly affects right now are Jonathan Lucroy, Brent Brewer, and Charlie FermaintTaylor Green and Stephen Chapman are the other hitters to watch on the Manatees, and both are lefties.

4 recs  |  Comment 6 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

For the curious...

The handedness of the pitcher doesn’t make much difference. Lefties do marginally better, probably because they face more right-handed batters, who aren’t going to hit for power. But the difference is rather slight.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 8, 2008 1:38 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Good stuff Jeff

We should convince Cleveland that Green is only playing well because of the park.
By the way, Snooty approves of this analysis (and he has the same daily diet as Prince).

http://www.baynews9.com/content/36/2008/7/18/366430.html

by molitorfan on Aug 8, 2008 2:01 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Great work again Jeff

So does this mean that you can quickly produce numbers for all parks in the minors? Will you be adding it to MLS park factors?

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Aug 8, 2008 2:06 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

numbers for all teams...

yes. I’m not sure what I’ll do with them, though. Almost certainly nothing until the end of the season…maybe an additional park adjustment button after that.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Aug 8, 2008 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Brew Crew Ball is dedicated to providing a friendly atmosphere for intelligent Brewer conversation. Click here to view our Posting Guide and Community Guidelines.
Start posting about the Brewers »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Rumorville: John Halama?
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Rumorville: Todd Wellemeyer?
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Rumorville: Derek Lowe/Corey Hart
Nohuddleblueew9_small
Question regarding revenue sharing
Small
All in on Low Risk/High Reward Guys
Box_small
Question: Rule 5 Draft Protection
Newavatar_small
Speculationville: Edwin Jackson/Curtis Granderson
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Rumorville: Kelly Shoppach
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Rumorville: John Lackey
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Braden Looper Watch (update 1)

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Featured Poll

Poll
Who won the J.J. Hardy/Carlos Gomez trade?

  532 votes | Results

79 - 82

11

Won 3

1

NL Central Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
St. Louis 91 71 .561 0 Lost 6
Chicago 83 78 .515 7.5 Lost 1
Milwaukee 80 82 .493 11 Won 3
Cincinnati 78 84 .481 13 Won 2
Houston 74 88 .456 17 Lost 3
Pittsburgh 62 99 .385 28.5 Lost 2

(updated 11.21.2009 at 10:31 AM CST)

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Infielder Adam Heether...returned home from the Venezuelan Winter League...
Anyone ever notice this? -- Did they make a corrected card? I am pretty sure there is a conspiracy behind this.
Authentic Jersey. I was wondering if it would be worth it to get a Fielder...
Brewers discussed Corey Hart for Derek Lowe
Mystery three-way trade team?
Keith Law's take on the Brewer's plans (he's not a fan)
Got this in the mail today from my Season Ticket Account Exec.

"Tim -
I wanted to thank you for renewing again this year.  Your continued support is very important & much appreciated.  Keep in touch and let me know if you need anything else.

Go Brewers!
Chris

P.S. If you know anybody else interested in a ticket plan, please let me know."
Washburn's Interested in the Brewers.
Milwaukees First All-Black Baseball Team
Autographs through the Mail: Jonathan Lucroy

Sent:11/5/09

Received:11/16/09

+ New FanShot All FanShots >


Moderators

U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small roguejim

Mordecai_brown_small Jeff Sackmann

Newavatar_small KLSnow

Box_small TheJay

Communist_party_small Jordan M

Contributors

Dsci0355_small kirbir

Picture_069_small tristarscoop

Dsc01174_small BrewHaHeather

Rubie_edited-1_small Rubie Q

Hikaru_50_small morineko

X1pxoywqu4sjf73f7drxq2lmqys7mzsyx7pa9necepiffk_ewcuwmuazb-o17ukmbriclcdkn4lk-4xposaawiq4j8hzdsccpjwatqpz2o2p-i0nnqjlyt7pmytaycsaknszvaktpshtcu9sjle1qchlw_1__small NoahJ

Hulk_buddy-icon_small Fatter than Joey