Let's talk about GM's

by KLSnow on Sep 19, 2008 1:38 PM CDT Comment 28 comments

So there's some heat around the web directed towards Doug Melvin, for any of a variety of reasons. Here's a Fire Ned Yost post, for example.

At the same time, we have one of the hottest GM prospects in all of baseball in our own front office. Jack Zduriencik has led the most successful drafts in Brewer history, and as a result his name has already come up a couple of times in regards to GM vacancies, and with organizations like Seattle looking to fill a job during the offseason, it would not be at all surprising to see him land a job somewhere.

So, should we be proactive? Do you think Doug Melvin should be back as general manager next season? If the answer is no, should Jack Zduriencik be offered the job?

For what it's worth, a Z management team wouldn't get much criticism in the press, because Zduriencik is ultra hard to spell.

Poll

Who should be the Milwaukee Brewers GM in 2009?

Doug Melvin

42 votes

Jack Zduriencik

62 votes

Someone else

7 votes

111 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 28 comments

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Comments

Bring on Jack!

Writing is on the wall…when you sell a plan to your boss to give up 3 potential Major League starters for renting a pitcher to get you in the playoffs and you don’t, you bet your ass is grass. Look I’m just saying Fransico Cordero should be our closer. Frankly they knew going into this season that this was our last chance to make the playoffs and didn’t up their offer…dumb move.
That was THE move that ultimately cost him his job!

If you always do what you always did you'll get what you always got.

by scottyak on Sep 19, 2008 1:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I voted for Jack Z

I’m probably oversimplifying the inner workings of a baseball organization by giving Zduriencik full credit for our drafts and Melvin full credit for other signings, but if that is even remotely the case then I would move however possible to keep Jack Z in the organization.

The only good transactions I can think of under Melvin are the Sexson trade and the Sabathia signing. Maybe the trade for Carlos Lee, but that’s entirely outweighed by the fact that he traded him away again the next season. He also has an apparent complete inability to gauge pitchers ($10 million for Gagne, the Linebrink trade, to a lesser degree releasing Claudio Vargas, and that’s not even counting the series of questionable mid-level relievers like Riske and Mota). All of that being said, I’m largely neutral towards Melvin and would only pursue firing him if it meant replacing him with Jack Z or some other clearly better option.

On the other hand, since 1999 the Brewers have had maybe the best drafts of any team in the major leagues. Sheets, Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Hart, LaPorta, Gamel, Gallardo, etc. is a pretty impressive success rate. Whether that translates into being a good GM I’m not sure, but it does certainly seems like Jack Z has a better handle on analyzing players than Melvin.

PS – Interesting piece of trivia I just stumbled upon: Zduriencik was the Director of Scouting for Pittsburgh in 1992 when their first round pick was the one and only Jason Kendall.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Sep 19, 2008 2:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

You talk about Melvins lack of judgement on pitchers.

But how many pitchers has Zduriencik drafted that are for sure good picks? I count two so far in Gallardo and Parra. Sheets wasn’t a Jack Z pick. I wouldn’t count anyone from this years draft yet due to small sample size, and the only good prospect we have in our upper minor leagues is Jeremy Jeffress.

Whereas Melvin has signed/traded/claimed off waivers for several OK pitchers in McClung, Villanueva, Dan Kolb, Derrick Turnbow, Dave Bush, Chris Capuano, Salomon Torres, Brian Shouse, and Suppan. (I don’t include Sabathia because there wasn’t really a lot of evaluation there, we knew what we were getting.)

Anyway, Melvin has gotten some profitable pitchers, though some flamed out after a year or two. Sure e has had some busts in Gagne, arguable Mota, arguably Suppan, etc…, but Jack Z has plenty of busts when drafting pitchers, especially in the high rounds when it really hurts.

I have said before that I’m not sure if Jack Z’s drafting/evaluating skills would transfer over well to being a GM (as Marty also pointed out below), though I also do not think Melvin is a GM that can get a team over the hump. We obviously need some more high OBP, low strikeout guys, some good defensive players, maybe a little more speed, but our lineup has been built as primarily Big Power, Big K lineups. If I remember, that was how the Rangers team was built when Melvin was GM there.

Some of that blame can rest on Jack Z for drafting the high power, strikeout guys, but Melvin doesn’t try to balance it by adding someone filling what we need. For example, he signed Cameron in the offseason adding power and strikeouts, but not high OBP and walks, though we did get some defense out of it, too.

Next year is a reloading year for the Brewers, and I think I’m leaning toward Jack Z to see how he would perform and I would not go with an outside GM unless they are a certainty to be better than Melvin.

Bye Ned!

by NoahJ on Sep 19, 2008 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You have a point

But drafting pitchers may be the biggest gamble in baseball, and I feel that Jack Z has done a very good job. Considering how difficult and unpredictable pitching prospects can be, the fact that he has brought into the system even just Gallardo, Parra, Jeffress, Inman (off the top of my head) in addition to the wealth of elite position players has to be commended. There have been busts, yes, but that’s part of the draft game and if I recall correctly most of the high-round Brewers pitcher fizzle-outs were due to injury, which can’t really be predicted.

As for Melvin, I guess he has gotten some good value out of players like Kolb/Torres, but he still has a pretty mediocre resume in the pitching department. McClung has exceeded expectations, but by the same token so has Grant Balfour. Turnbow’s productive season was a bizarre anomaly, and most of the other pitchers you mentioned were part of larger trades that often sent equally valuable pitchers out of Milwaukee. As for Suppan, I’m not sure his signing is a career highlight, it might even be in the running for Melvin’s worst move yet.

I don’t know enough about the job of general manager to make the claim that Jack Z would be better than Doug Melvin, but purely from a fan perspective on who is better at evaluating players, I have to go with Zduriencik.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Sep 19, 2008 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand what you're saying

I just don’t think you could say Jack would be any better at evaluating and signing/trading for pitchers than Melvin has been. Jack has an excellent reputation for drafting position players (all be it, as I said before, with not very much balance as we have numerous power hitters, low OBP guys) though his pitcher-draft resume leaves much to be desired. He does have some good finds, and some of the busts have been due to injury, but I still think he is not as apt at finding pitchers.

Melvin has done a good job at finding pitchers off the scrap heap, part of the reason why we are as good as we are. However, well these scrap-heap pitchers are decent, they are not enough to get us to the series in my opinion, which is why I think I would want a new GM if the Brewers do not make the playoffs.

Whether or not Jack would make the OK finds Melvin would or not, I would like to see him be given a shot.

Like I said, next year will probably be a “reloading” year, trying to tweak the roster and wait for a couple pitchers to make it to the majors before being super-competitive again.

Bye Ned!

by NoahJ on Sep 19, 2008 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Those guys at FNY are pretty smart

And they’re having trouble staying grounded following the explosion of press with Ned’s firing.

I don’t know enough about Jack Z to know if I’d want him as GM. He’s a great evaluator of young talent, but who know how well that translates into the GM role, where you also have to be able to negotiate trades with other teams, and evaluate washed-up free agents that may have something left.

I have a secret (well, not any more) hope that Attanasio brings in a numbers guy. He’s got a financial background, and understands how mathematical models work. I don’t know who that guy might be. Maybe Sackmann.

by Marty McSuperFly on Sep 19, 2008 2:48 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

As much as DM has got this team over a huge losing hump...

I say bring on the man who effectively built this team from the ground up with his killer scouting intellect. The time has come to put Jack Z at the GM spot, before someone else takes him for an upper office spot.

by Lavender on Sep 19, 2008 3:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

"...and that"

Remember, it was Melvin who insisted upon keeping this manager for this long, it was Melvin who slipped this manager a two-year extension under everyone’s nose during this past off-season, it was Melvin who signed Eric Gagné for $10 million, it was Melvin who signed a CF who was suspended for the first 25 games of this season, it was Melvin who signed another suspendee from last season for his bullpen, it was Melvin who agreed to have a bench coach without any coaching experience, it was… well, you get the idea.

by GoCrew on Sep 19, 2008 4:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

it was Melvin

who didn’t trade Bill Hall two years, or even one year, ago. It was Melvin who signed Kendall to a 2-year deal after going out of his way to trade for Estrada the year before. It was Melvin who gave a pitcher who can’t strike anybody out an enormous 4-year contract that now looks predictably awful. It was Melvin who signed Riske (though I think that can still turn out well), and it was Melvin who told us Braun could play 3B when two more wins last season would have had us in the playoffs in a much easier division.

All that said, the culprits this year are Rickie Weeks, Jeff Suppan, and Bill Hall. They’ve killed this team. Anything consistently mediocre from these 3 and we’d be in the playoffs.

by James Stanley Cocanower on Sep 20, 2008 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm going to go ahead and represent Weeks

Not singling you out at all- tons of people are saying Weeks should be DFA’d, fed to the dogs, etc. The guy is ranked 11th among qualified second basemen in OPS. His OBP is over .340. I’ll agree with you on Hall and Suppan underperforming, but I don’t think Weeks has killed the team.

Sat: George 2 (37, missed catch, fielding) Fri: George (35, throw) Tues: George (34, throw)

by Jordan M on Sep 20, 2008 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

that Weeks’ BA belies his actual value to the team, and that he’s likely a victim of overly high expectations.

That said…to be ranked 11th in OPS out of 15 NL teams isn’t a good argument as to why he’s underrated. (Or are you including the AL as well?)

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Sep 21, 2008 8:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

jeez

I hate to question your baseball acumen, RJ, but which team have you arbitrarily removed from the NL? :)

by Marty McSuperFly on Sep 21, 2008 8:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ummmm

I’ll say the Pirates.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Sep 21, 2008 9:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Strange choice

I would have chosen the Cubs.

by Marty McSuperFly on Sep 21, 2008 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't feel like fighting trolls all day. :)

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Sep 21, 2008 9:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Too bad.

But it’s ok. They’re just trying to enlighten us and demonstrate what great people they are now that their team has won the division and there’s no longer any need for vitriol. Think of it as reparations, only more irritating.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 21, 2008 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually

That was 11th in the MLB among qualified second basemen. However, there are only 16 that are qualifiy for the batting title. I’d take the top 8 over Rickie, but that’s about it. Second base really isn’t a strong position anywhere. An considering Rickie is having a down OBP year by a lot..

I guess what I’m saying is it’s going to take a lot to upgrade 2B when there are other positions that would be easier to upgrade and cost less.

Sat: George 2 (37, missed catch, fielding) Fri: George (35, throw) Tues: George (34, throw)

by Jordan M on Sep 21, 2008 9:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, I agree

It’s hard to find offensive-minded middle infielders. I think we were spoiled by his “potential” - and maybe brought him up from the minors too soon.

My main qualm for Rickie is that the middle infielder trade-off usually is uninspiring offense for good defense. With Rickie, we don’t really get either, plus the recurring thumb injury to boot. Given the lack of internal options (i.e., Hardy, and that’s about it) and the other holes to fill on the team, though, I don’t think a quick upgrade is in the cards.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Sep 21, 2008 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Taylor Green is not the infamous PTBNL and Hardy is moves for Alcides

Green can play the position that Hardy doesn’t occupy when he makes it up. He’s a natural second basemen and doing well at third right now.

Bye Ned!

by NoahJ on Sep 21, 2008 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ha

I was going to write that, almost word for word. Another reason I’d give Rickie at least another year. At worst, you get league-average production from second and at best he finally has the .270/.400/.450 25 homer year we’ve all been waiting for. If they want to trade him or they think he’s not good enough, Taylor Green will be ready by 2010, probably. Green and Gamel had almost identical stat lines at Brevard, and they’re both lefties, and Green plays an above average second base and an average third base.

It would be teh awesome if they could get Hardy to move to third.

Sat: George 2 (37, missed catch, fielding) Fri: George (35, throw) Tues: George (34, throw)

by Jordan M on Sep 21, 2008 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cue roguejim's Brewers pipe dream

Low-walk pitchers who induce groundballs to a defensively solid infield. Forget strikeouts, I’d happily watch a game where most of the outs our pitchers get are ground outs and double plays. Even if a bunch of these groundballs do find holes…it’d still take three of them to score a run.

Ah well. I say this now, and then we’ll spend $15 million on Derek Lowe…

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Sep 21, 2008 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe we can trade Suppan to the Free Agent market for Lowe?

Bye Ned!

by NoahJ on Sep 21, 2008 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I heard the Nippon Ham Fighters could use a starting pitcher who's a gamer and has postseason experience

Sat: George 2 (37, missed catch, fielding) Fri: George (35, throw) Tues: George (34, throw)

by Jordan M on Sep 21, 2008 10:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully they already have the high scoring offense

for when the other team scores five runs in an inning.

Bye Ned!

by NoahJ on Sep 21, 2008 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

And that's a pretty good argument.

I agree that expectations (unrealistic as they were) are part of my dislike for Weeks. I’ve certainly seen players do less with more, but I’ve also seen plenty do more with less. I don’t mind having him around. I just don’t want to be told that he’ll ever be an above average player anymore, which you still hear occasionally. Even on this site.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 21, 2008 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

I will be pleasantly surprised if Weeks ever reaches expectations for him from early on but I don’t expect it. I can take him or leave him. As long as they aren’t married to the idea that he can only leadoff

Can't pitch Gagne in rain. He’s like the B-2 bomber of baseball.--TheJay

by verno329 on Sep 21, 2008 8:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Replace Rickie Weeks with Ned Yost and Jason Kendall and Corey Hart and you’re onto something.

by HRF on Sep 20, 2008 11:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Doug Melvin has done very well by the Brewers

He’s had two blind spots though. One, he stuck with Ned Yost for too long. Two, he doesn’t place enough value on defense and putting players in the right positions on the field. If it were my team I’d trade Fielder for desperately needed pitching help, move Braun to 1st base, move Weeks to the outfield, keep Hardy at shortstop and figure out what to do with Escobar (either play him at 2nd or trade him for what you need, which is a lot).

by MDBNIU on Sep 22, 2008 11:05 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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