Playoff Odds Report - please explain

by redtiger on Sep 2, 2008 11:42 AM CDT Comment 9 comments

I noticed today that the playoff odds report from Accuscore puts the Brewers at a 94.2% chance of making the playoffs. The Cubs are at 99.3%. Similarly, the Cubs take the division at about 80% and the Brewers at 19%, leaving a few percentage points for the Cardinals, and I suppose Astros.

Can someone please explain the significance of the playoff odds report to me? It doesn't seem intuitive to me to suggest that there is only an approximately 6 percent chance that, say, the Phillies finish 16-8 and the Brewers finish 10-15. Not that I think that would be likely - truly a collapse by the Brewers. Similarly, the Brewers could tie the division by going 16-9, if the Cubs stumbled to 11-13.

But would it be a collapse of the epic proportions that the playoff odds report is suggesting?

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your scenario

phils 16-8 and brewers 10-15 doesn’t necessarily keep the brewers out of the playoffs — for that to happen, the mets ALSO have to be better than the Brewers — one more thing that is plausible in itself, but now we’ve got three things that are unlikely-though-plausible:
- reasonably strong finish from mets
- very strong finish from phils
- weak finish from brewers

Basically, a 6% chance of ALL of those things happening is equivalent to a 40% chance that each individual thing happens (0.4 cubed = 0.064) … and I definitely buy the fact that the odds of any of those individual outcomes is 40% or less.

Not only that, the Mets and Phils have another series coming up, so since only one of the teams can win those games, it makes it that much less likely that both teams have .650+ months.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Sep 2, 2008 12:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The reverse effect can be seen...

when teams (or their fans) delude themselves about being wildcard contenders because they’re only, say, 5 games behind, disregarding that there’s a half-dozen other teams in similar or better positions. Of course, there are last year’s Rockies…

by Zeyes on Sep 2, 2008 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or they can be the Astros

and be convinced that they’re still in the Wildcard chase, at .16 percent.

Sat: George 2 (37, missed catch, fielding) Fri: George (35, throw) Tues: George (34, throw)

by Jordan M on Sep 2, 2008 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's Hope

Let’s hope they help their chances slightly over the next few days.

Coffee is for closers

by drezdn on Sep 2, 2008 7:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Crazy

The Astros are 25-10 in their last 35 games.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Sep 2, 2008 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Coooop

by molitorfan on Sep 2, 2008 7:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You picked a heck of a day to look into BP's playoff reports.

Because they’re chock full of nuts today – the 7D and 1D change percents are missing, the PECOTA odds report is an utter mess (although it’s good to know that if the Cubs and Brewers were both sub-.500 teams all of a sudden they’re both almost certain to make the playoffs.)

I has a blog. | Ask a sabermagician!

by cwyers on Sep 3, 2008 2:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Clay had an unfiltered post about it

He’s having a really bad week.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Sep 3, 2008 3:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

plus, 6% is about 1 out of 15 seasons

it’s very unlikely, but not Rockies of 2007 unlikely.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 4, 2008 8:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	45	39	.535	0	Won 1
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	43	38	.530	0.5	Lost 1
Cincinnati Red Reporter	40	40	.500	3	Lost 1
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	39	39	.500	3	Won 1
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	39	41	.487	4	Won 1
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	37	45	.451	7	Lost 2