Wednesday's Frosty Mug

by KLSnow on Sep 24, 2008 9:22 AM CDT Comment 25 comments

I made a pumpkin pie from scratch yesterday. Started with a pumpkin and a frozen crust, and ended the day with a delicious pie. And the Brewers won. I'm going to need a lot more pumpkins.

Brewers 7, Pirates 5:
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score

Mets 6, Cubs 2:
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score

Braves 3, Phillies 2:
Win Probability Graph
BR Box Score

Tom H. says Prince Fielder is pressure-proof. I'm not quite ready to forget his long homerless drought in August and September, but he is hitting .419/.500/1.000 in the 50 plate appearances since it ended. Also, Pirates broadcaster John Wehner predicted his home run last night.

Looking ahead, CC Sabathia returns to the mound on short rest tonight to attempt to keep the season alive. Baseball Musings thinks the Brewers are hurting Sabathia's future by starting him on short rest again. CBS Sportsline's Scott Miller says starting Sabathia early gives the Brewers their best shot. The Junkball Blues does not appreciate Dale Sveum's bullpen usage or short-rest starts.

But, with Sabathia having been acquired by trading a first round pick, and Fielder, Braun, Weeks and Ben Sheets all having been #1's as well, the Brewers are getting more performance out of their first rounders than all but one team in playoff contention.

There mustn't have been much news to discuss at the Brewers/Timber Rattlers press conference yesterday, because this is the big scoop: Brett Lawrie, the Brewers 2008 first round pick, might play in Appleton next season. Just like every other prospect.

Yovani Gallardo was activated off the DL yesterday. All of a sudden, he's being mentioned as a possibility to start Thursday, even though he hasn't swung a bat or run the bases since May. If he's available to pitch, and McClung and Suppan would be as well, why not start one of them and have Gallardo ready in case they struggle early?

Jim Powell says the Brewers' season may hinge on the fans ability to support them at Miller Park this week. I tend to think the fans' ability to support them at Miller Park this week will hinge on the Brewers ability to play like a winning team. So we have a chicken and the egg problem.

Of course, there could always be worse outcomes: Futility Infielder takes a look at the Mets and Brewers and doesn't think either of them can win.

On injuries:

Pirates OF Brandon Moss has been advised to have season-ending knee surgery. He's seeking a second opinion.
Carlos Silva's season is over after he was scratched from his start Thursday with back problems.

That noise you heard all through the night was rejoicing coming from everywhere but New York: For the first time since 1993, baseball fans will get to enjoy a postseason without the New York Yankees. Columnists will write about other teams. ESPN will send reporters to chronicle every minute of someone else's pre-game meal...or they'll just all cover the Red Sox. Damn, maybe this isn't better after all.

Brewed Sports found a post on a Cubs board suggesting the Cubs should go out of their way this week to keep the Brewers out of the playoffs. The conspiracy level required to pull that off is a little higher than I can believe in.

The Reds recently finished their home season in front of just 2000 fans. I'm not an expert, but I'm going to guess if they had given away tickets to a game next year, as the Brewers will do on Thursday, they would have drawn better.

I've heard it suggested that if you want to work in baseball, the best way to get your foot in the door is to take any open job, anywhere, and work your way up. This job is the exception to that rule.

Drink up.

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Gallardo

I thought the reason he was in AZ was to practice running and fielding?

We've got uniforms and everything, it's really great!

by drezdn on Sep 24, 2008 10:02 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Baseball Musings

It seems like every time they are linked it is an article complaining about pitch counts.

by Supertramp on Sep 24, 2008 10:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Lately

Every time he mentions the Brewers, it is pitch counts.

David Pinto does a pretty nice job of summing up an awful lot of baseball news into one site and doing so quickly. He has recurring concern on Sabathia and overuse, so he talks about Sabathia a lot. Earlier in the year I linked to him on a wider variety of things. Plus, he’s almost always one of the sites linked in the injury reports.

Hence my decision to call it "screwing around" as opposed to "in-depth study."

by KLSnow on Sep 24, 2008 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sabathia may be breaking down

Sabathia finished the game on September 5th with 217 innings on the season. In the 3 additional games since then, he has:

1) a 3.66 ERA
2) given up 24 hits
3) given up a .732 OPS against
4) Pitched an additional 24 innings

While those numbers aren’t terrible, CC’s numbers with the Brewers from 7/8 to 9/5 were 1.42 ERA and .540 OPS against.

With a start today and a start on Sunday, there is a real possibility of Sabathia throwing over 250 innings in the regular season, and if the Brewers make the postseason, even more innings. So, it should be a real concern to any team that considers signing him. Also, it’s tough to see where someone could legitimately believe that the Brewers aren’t running him down, given the recent short-rest starts, and the declining production.

by Marty McSuperFly on Sep 24, 2008 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

3 days rest

Of the three starts you talk about, one was on 3 days rest and one was on the road against the NL’s best team. I think its resonable to expect his stats to falter a little bit and don’t know if its because he is run down. I would argue it is more likely because Sabathia faced tougher competition…and probably wasn’t going to keep his 1.42 ERA the entire second half regardless.

CC had 241 IP last year so its not like this production came out of nowhere.

Of course any team who is going to sign a pitcher long term is going to analyze everything but I am skeptical that the Brewer’s use of him the last month of the season is going to affect a veteran arm like CC long term.

by Supertramp on Sep 24, 2008 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess we'll see

His K rate was still over 8 per 9 IP for those 3 games, I think, so he is still effective. Obviously, he’ll need to pitch more games before we’d see a trend develop.

You had asked why Pinto is so focused on possible abuse of Sabathia, though, and I’m just laying out why those concerns are legitimate. He’s going to pitch more innings, and more of them on short rest, especially if the Brewers make the playoffs, and that’s going to raise some eyebrows.

by Marty McSuperFly on Sep 24, 2008 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree

I get why it should be questioned and agree that the effects probably won’t be seen until probably next year.

My original comment was more in reference to Baseball Musings the past couple months, not just this week. Off the top of my head I remember that he predicted doom and gloom after CC’s 130 pitch outing last month and Sheets throwing 110 pitches after he left the Mets start early (though I guess you could argue he had a point there).

I just generally kind of dislike the “he threw a lot of pitches, bad things are going to happen” knee-jerk reaction that a lot of writers have, and that was what my comment was about.

by Supertramp on Sep 24, 2008 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

To be fair

When you’ve got a manager who sends a guy out in the 9th to complete a game where he’s leading 9-2, and that takes the pitcher to 130 pitches, eyebrows are going to be raised. There’s simply no reason to do that.

by Marty McSuperFly on Sep 24, 2008 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh I didn't mind

That you linked him, I like the site.

I was just wondering why lately he is so concerned with pitch counts. Considering all the problems with the Brewers have right now it seems a little odd that he focuses so much energy on pitcher use, especially when most of his analysis is mostly just the “he threw a lot of pitches, that could hurt him down the road” variety.

by Supertramp on Sep 24, 2008 10:19 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Why start YoGa?

To find out if he can start in the playoffs. If he starts Thusday, puts forth a quality start and has no problems with pain on Friday/Saturday he’s your game 1 starter. If he struggles after 3 or 4 innings, you can still use him in a relief role in the playoffs and he is probably available Sunday if you need two innings. If you use him Thursday in a relief spot and he pitches 3 innings, you still have no idea what you have and the Crew need to find a healthy starting pitcher better than Dave Bush in the worst way.

by Getting Yosted on Sep 24, 2008 10:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Frozen crust

is not from scratch, buddy.

by Braunstalker on Sep 24, 2008 10:51 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Snap!

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Sep 24, 2008 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You win.

I hate making pie crust.

Hence my decision to call it "screwing around" as opposed to "in-depth study."

by KLSnow on Sep 24, 2008 10:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reds

I’m sure they were hampered by that being a makeup game. A fifth-place team hosting a Monday day game in late September that’s not on the original schedule? Two thousand sounds about right.

Did they give refunds to fans who bought tickets for the originally scheduled May 15 game?

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Sep 24, 2008 10:51 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

As a fantasy owner of Gallardo

Do you guys know whether Gallardo is expected to be ready to start? And perhaps more importantly, ready start well?

A good friend of mine used to say, "This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.

by DyingQuail on Sep 24, 2008 11:39 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

he has been stretched to 75 pitches

Supposedly there is concern over him starting because of the batting and running which makes no sense to me. Go up there and take. Will he pitch well? Who knows.

by ol Pete on Sep 24, 2008 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

the important question

when is CC Sabathia’s wife due to give birth?

Situational Signature (8th/9th inning only): pleasenotkendallpleasenotkendallpleasenotkendallpleasenotkendall
--NoahJ

by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 24, 2008 1:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I actually looked that up the other day after I brought it up

USA Today says October 15, so in the NLCS anyway.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Sep 24, 2008 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

not their first, right?

i think the first tends to be early

Situational Signature (8th/9th inning only): pleasenotkendallpleasenotkendallpleasenotkendallpleasenotkendall
--NoahJ

by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 24, 2008 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Their third

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Sep 24, 2008 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

a quote i found in the scott miller story

“It’s strange,” says Sveum, who arrived at the park at 9:30 a.m. Tuesday, roughly 90 minutes earlier than when he was one of the coaches. "First time I’ve ever been in that bathroom. Ned’s a good friend of mine, and it was strange to sit down in the manager’s
chair.

—
so…the “manager’s chair” is a toilet seat?

Situational Signature (8th/9th inning only): pleasenotkendallpleasenotkendallpleasenotkendallpleasenotkendall
--NoahJ

by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 24, 2008 1:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe the manager gets his own stall.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Sep 24, 2008 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe no one wanted to be in there when Yost was, so he got his own by default.

by Getting Yosted on Sep 24, 2008 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think its better for all involved that the guy who drinks 25 cups of coffee each day get his own bathroom.

by Supertramp on Sep 24, 2008 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Obviously today is a big day

Only five games left and Sabathia on the mound for us and Zambrano on the mound for the Cubs. Oliver Perez has been good this season but he is exactly the type of pitcher the Cubs have been destroying this year. Lefty who walks a good deal of hitters. It really would be nice to make up that game in the standings right here as chances like this are running out.

Visit my baseball blog ...or else!

by dixieflatline on Sep 24, 2008 1:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	44	38	.536	0	Won 3
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	42	38	.525	1	Lost 3
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	39	38	.506	2.5	Won 3
Cincinnati Red Reporter	39	39	.500	3	Lost 1
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	38	40	.487	4	Lost 1
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	37	43	.462	6	Won 1