Rumorville: Prince Fielder and Matt Cain
From Jayson Stark via MLBTR:
During one of our recent chats, a reader proposed a fascinating trade for this winter -- Prince Fielder to the Giants for Matt Cain. The Brewers will need an ace to replace CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets. The Giants need power. It ain't crazy. So can it happen? Dubious, but possible.First off, according to an official of one club that has already felt out the Brewers on their tentative offseason game plan, Fielder is "definitely someone they'll listen on. They told us they're willing to listen on him, Bill Hall, [J.J.] Hardy and [Rickie] Weeks in the right [i.e., humongous] deal."
Second, it's clear the Giants have deployed their scouts all over baseball in the second half looking for power at the infield corners. And Fielder is one of the mashers believed to be high on their list.
OK, now here's the biggest hang-up: Giants GM Brian Sabean has told clubs repeatedly that he has no interest in busting up the best thing his team has going for it -- the power 1-2 combo of Cain and Tim Lincecum. But if it meant a realistic chance to deal for Prince Fielder, wouldn't he have to rewrite his script?
"Brian has been saying he won't trade one of those two pitchers for anyone," said one NL executive. "But if you're asking me, he ought to reconsider. If they want to get that kind of player, they're going to have to trade Matt Cain to get it."
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34 comments
Comments
I thought they were going to give us Jonathon Sanchez :)
Maybe that was about LaPorta though. Didn’t one guy say he wouldn’t even trade Brian Wilson for Fielder? That was awesome.
Anyway- still seems pretty far-fetched to me, but we’ll see.
Sat: George 2 (37, missed catch, fielding) Fri: George (35, throw) Tues: George (34, throw)
by Jordan M on Sep 4, 2008 10:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
After the last couple of weeks
do they still want Prince? (I know this is a small sample size against a lot of LH pitchers but I am in a bad mood)
by molitorfan on Sep 4, 2008 10:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Ditto
If Fielder continues to dog it down the stretch I don’t see his trade stock being too high(even if there’s a small sample of what he can and can’t do).
We’d almost have to toss another top 5 or 10 prospect with Prince to get a Cain though.
by Lavender on Sep 4, 2008 11:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I still remember when Steve Stone said
JJ Hardy was the PTBNL in the CC deal according to his inside sources.
by ol Pete on Sep 4, 2008 11:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Saaaaaay
What if Hardy IS the player to be named later, and Moustache worked out a clause that the Indians can get him only after the season? He is eligible for arbitration in 2009, and a free agent in 2011…
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Sep 5, 2008 5:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rostered players can't be PTBNL
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Sep 5, 2008 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Am I totally biased or something?
Guy forgets to hit 50 HR and suddenly he’s chopped liver! Cain is an excellent young pitcher but I don’t see how it’s a given that he nets Fielder in a trade. I’m not saying it’s unrealistic, if it somehow happened I wouldn’t be surprised, but if I’m the Brewers I’m asking for more (actually, if I’m the Brewers I’m not trading Fielder even if he sinks the entire payroll, but that seems to be just me).
(Plus, we don’t necessarily “need an ace” to replace Sheets/Sabathia, we already have a superior ace to Cain in Gallardo.)
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Sep 5, 2008 1:43 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Let's see
Cain’s stats vs. Gallardo’s stats.
It’s hard to say who’s better, because Gallardo has pitched far fewer innings. But they’re both righthanders who have a similar WHIP (1.26 vs. 1.27), K/9 (7.87 vs. 7.72), BAA (.248 vs .226), etc. As far as I can tell, Cain’s avoided the injury bug, which is no small thing. I guess if you would trade Fielder for someone like Gallardo, then you’d probably trade him for Cain.
Plus, there are other considerations:
- Our playoff window is fully open now, and slowly starting to close (i.e., players start to get too expensive to hold onto, and have to be replaced by those of unknown or unproven quality). We’ll see it after this season, when Sheets presumably becomes too expensive for us to retain.
- Cain is under team control through 2011, and relatively cheap (2009:$2.65M, 2010:$4.25M, 2011:$6.25M club option, though it’ll probably be closer to $8 million when it’s all said and done in 2011).
- Our pitching is going to be a real question mark if we lose our top 2 pitchers in CC and Sheets in the offseason, and another Gallardo injury away from a total disaster. Plus, if we make the playoffs this season, we’re supposed to be tough to play because we can throw two #1 pitchers in a short series. Gallardo-Cain-Parra is a lot more formidable than Gallardo-Parra-err, Suppan.
- Assuming he can’t handle the hot corner, we’ll need a place to put Gamel. (Unless we trade him too, in which case I’m stitching together a Doug Melvin voodoo doll and running it over with my car.) The only options are right field and 1st base. In 2009, right field only opens up if we don’t keep Cameron and slide Hart over (though if Gamel plays 2009 in AAA, then we can put him in right field in 2010). If Gamel is ready in 2009, though, and we use the option on Cameron (which I bet we do), then he either rides the bench or plays first.
- Fielder will probably make somewhere near $10 million in 2009. A Fielder/Cain trade will save us about $7 million. (Now that I think about it, I wonder if freeing up that salary would give us a shot at re-signing CC, given the departures of Sheets and Gagne. Imagine having CC, Cain, Gallardo, and Parra as your top 4 starters?)
A lot of this depends on how far along Gamel is, and how much we’re concerned about his late-season slump. If he’s ready now…I don’t have a problem with such a trade at all.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Sep 5, 2008 6:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
An odd fact
Despite being 19 games under .500, the Giants lead the NL in 1-run victories with 28.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Sep 5, 2008 6:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seeing as Gallardo has barely pitched a full major league season, their MLB stats can’t really equate their potential or skill. Prior to this season I’m sure almost anyone would have ranked Gallardo far above Cain, and the only thing that’s changed is that Cain has put together a decent season and Gallardo has been forgotten, but this is all just opinion and rather irrelevant to a theoretical Fielder/Cain trade anyways.
Trading Fielder would be cheaper, yes, but unless it’s impossible to afford him in the near future (like it is for Sabathia and probably Sheets) that doesn’t mean we should trade him. We aren’t in dire need of a top starter either. Maybe having both Sabathia and Sheets has made us greedy, because Gallardo-Parra-Suppan-Bush-McClung?-Villanueva? is a rotation most teams would love to have. Signing another SP makes sense, in case of injury, but it only needs to be a back of the rotation guy.
As for Gamel, he’s definitely not good enough in my opinion to be shopping Fielder for. We have room to move him around, Hart’s ability to play center gives us a future spot in the outfield (and lord knows 3B is free for the taking). If he is so incapable of playing defense that his only chance to the big leagues is blocked by Prince Fielder, then too bad. I don’t want to trade either, but I would trade Gamel long before I traded Fielder.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Sep 5, 2008 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Could be
It could be that I’m overestimating Gamel - admittedly, I have pretty high expectations for the lad.
Gallardo-Parra-Suppan-Bush-McClung?-Villanueva? is a rotation most teams would love to have.
There was a time where I might have agreed with you, and I guess I’d go so far as to call it above average in the National League. Maybe I have gotten greedy, but I don’t see a rotation like that winning a lot of playoff games. Off the top of my head, I’ll call them a marginal #1 starter, a #3, and the rest #4/#5 flotsam.
How do you know Gamel isn’t good enough to trade Fielder? What if I told you that Fielder has an Estrada-esque .700 OPS against left-handed pitching this season? Maybe the question shouldn’t be if we should trade Fielder for Cain, but if we should be platooning Prince in the first place.
I know you like Fielder, but if the choice is between Gamel + $10 million versus Fielder, I’d have to think about it, and take a hard look at where Gamel is at right now. If it’s Gamel + Cain + $7 million versus Fielder, I can’t see many would-be owners turning that down.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Sep 5, 2008 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you're being kind there...
I’ll give you Parra as a #3 (though i’m worried about his health next year). Gallardo certainly has the potential to be a #1, but given his youth he’s probably more of a #2 guy in 2009. The rest (Suppan, Bush and McClung) are just guys who will have as many 3 inning, 6 ER outings as they will quality starts. Their biggest value is that they’ll probably take the ball every 5 days without getting hurt. With that rotation you’d have to score a ton and do so consistently to be in the playoff chase come September.
FDR can suck it. - Jeff Sackmann
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 6, 2008 7:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Platoon Fielder? Seriously?
Seems like a massive overreaction — his OPS vs. LHP was around 828 for 2006 and 2007, based on a .287 average on balls in play, which is probably about right (neither lucky nor unlucky) for a festively plump slugger. This season it’s a 700 OPS, but that’s based on a .246 BABIP which almost certainly is just a bunch of bad luck — and remember, it’s only 204 PA, a sample size at which it’s not uncommon to see huge luck swings on BIP.
by Jay on Sep 6, 2008 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, not seriously
After all, the last two seasons, as you pointed out, his numbers against LHP was much better. (Unless you’re making the argument that LHP had figured out how to pitch to him, which…well, let’s not think about that.)
I was just making the point that the dropoff from Fielder to Gamel might not be as severe as SRB thinks - and that we’ll be paying for those 50 home runs last season when looking at arbitration this offseason.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Sep 6, 2008 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im going to sound like a cub fan but...
Prince is just getting too big. I used to hate when cub fans said this, but you look at pictures from his rookie year and even last year and he doesn’t even look like the same person as today. He looks a lot like his daddy. Somehow he lost his opposite field power and he just seems like he can’t cover the entire plate anymore. Maybe it’s because of his weight, but he also looks very unbalanced on a lot of swings.
I wouldn’t necessarily be happy if he was traded, but if it were for Cain I would be very pleased.
by brewfan2 on Sep 5, 2008 1:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
That about sums up my thoughts too.
Quick! Change your mind!
FDR can suck it. - Jeff Sackmann
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 6, 2008 7:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
$7million is actually not that much
There are a lot of holes to fill next year, especially with the pitching staff, and the money that we are saving from Gagne, Turnbow, Sheets, Counsell (assuming they don’t pick up his optionA) & Mota will actually be eaten up almost immediately by the raises due Prince, Corey, JJ, Rickie, Cameron, and Suppan (don’t forget we’re paying him $4mil more next year than we are this year). That leaves us with maybe a couple of million under this year’s payroll, and that’s to fill several bullpen spots, maybe a SP, and who knows what else.
Knowing that, saving $7mil on Prince based on one half season of great numbers at AA by Gamel seems not worth it. I mean, unless CC wants to sign with us for like $10mil per year, that money is just not going to make that much difference. Gamel’s not that young, he’s never played 1B, and you have to be concerned about his late season slump given that his first half #s at Huntsville were a bit above his previous averages (not to say a guy can’t take a step forward, just to say be careful).
I don’t think there is any way we can trade Prince before 2009 starts. Unless it’s for Tim Lincecum.
by baumann on Sep 5, 2008 3:58 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not disagreeing
And I’m not exactly calling for a trade, either, though I wouldn’t be too upset if it happened.
Still…looking solely at next season (and putting aside one’s feelings for Fielder, positive or negative), the argument for filling the holes for 2009 is a reason to trade Fielder this offseason instead of keeping him. In one trade, you obviate the need for another starting pitcher and gain $7 million in salary. On the flip side, if you keep Fielder, you’ll have to fork over his arbitration salary and STILL have pitching to worry about. I assume that’s what this baseball economic model is all about: milk the guys you have while they’re cheap, and when they get pricey, you trade them for your blue-chip prospects. Lather rinse repeat.
Given what we know of Prince already, the odds of him resigning with us after 2011 is (IMHO) next to zero. The question becomes when to trade them. If we can get Cain…well, maybe the time is now. Or do we hope for a better return next season?
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Sep 5, 2008 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you are right
i realized after i posted that that i was really making an argument to trade him. and that’s fine. i wouldn’t be heart broken to see him go, and i think Cain is a great pitcher, but i’d worry about Gamel a whole lot, actually. i’d feel a lot better if we had LaPorta instead of Gamel.
by baumann on Sep 6, 2008 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hear you.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Sep 6, 2008 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What if I told you that we could have both, AND put Seth McClung in the rotation
How awesome does that sound?!?!
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Sep 6, 2008 8:28 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Why is everyone assuming Parra is ahead of Bush?
by HRF on Sep 5, 2008 9:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hope?
Not to mention that Manny’s got a lower ERA, comparable IP and a higher K rate. Bush’s WHIP is lower this year and a by a significant margin, but I think the perception is that we’ve seen his best, which isn’t rhe case for Parra. A case can be made for Bush being in front of Parra in 2009, but I think the assumption is made because every time this team has hoped from something more out of Bush than being an acceptable 4th or 5th guy who’ll get close to 200 IP, they’ve been disappointed. So, when Brewerfans try to come up with a rotation they think can be competitive in 2009 based on the tools that are already in the box and the assumption that CC and Sheets are gone, hoping that Parra develops beyond where he is this year is the only way they can be hopeful that the 2009 rotation can be competitive.
Put another way, if Parra’s WHIP in 2009 where it is in 2008, it probably doesn’t make much difference where Bush and Parra are in the rotation because our SP is going suck.
FDR can suck it. - Jeff Sackmann
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 6, 2008 7:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
in addition to stuff, luck.
I love Dave Bush (probably the only person with that surname that I love), and I think he’s been unlucky for the last 2-3 seasons, but this year that’s not the case. He has a horribly low BABIP of .248 and a GB% of 42%. If he was Brandon Webb, I’d be less worried about the BABIP as being just lucky.
Parra, on the other hand, has probably been a bit unlucky, as good as he’s been. He has a GB% of 53% and a BABIP of .324, which is over the league average. I don’t think there’s any doubt who’s the better of the two. But Bush is a valuable pitcher, because he’s healthy, and can log 200 innings every year at about a league average clip. He’s what Jeff Suppan is supposed to be, only about $6million cheaper.
by baumann on Sep 6, 2008 5:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which Bushes do you hate?
Reggie? Sophia?
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Sep 6, 2008 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Burning.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Sep 6, 2008 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He thinks he's hot stuff.
FDR can suck it. - Jeff Sackmann
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Sep 6, 2008 8:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
En fuego, even!
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Sep 6, 2008 9:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Homer
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Sep 6, 2008 7:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I saw Sophia Bush at a bar in Wilmington
They carded her and she didn’t have it, so they wouldn’t let her in. It was awesome.
BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"
by battlekow on Sep 6, 2008 8:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

























