As the graph says, probabilities of the Brewers winning X amount of games. The first 99.99% mark...

As the graph says, probabilities of the Brewers winning X amount of games. The first 99.99% mark is 52 games, then it goes to 60 and then increments by 5. This is using a binomial distribution based on my WAR projections, which give a win% of .538

Larger version here: http://img.imgcake.com/brewerprobabilities.jpg

5 months ago jhmoore Comment 10 comments 0 recs |

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Soooo

Marcel Marceau is miming that we’ll have an 88-win season. (Was the graph made post-Hoffman?) Given that we’re still not likely to be done rebuilding our pitching staff, that’s not so bad.

It also says we have NO CHANCE at winning 125 games. Them’s fighting words!

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jan 10, 2009 7:04 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

this is post hoffman

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Juuuust a bit outside!!
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by jhmoore on Jan 10, 2009 12:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Awesome

That seem pretty optimistic, actually, with a 50% chance of being in the high 80s.

And by the way, you can put a link in the text part of the fanshot for the larger version. Just click the little chain links on the edit screen and insert the URL, or you can use the [ a href=“http://url” ] link [/a] code if you know how to use any html. There’s an edit button on fanshots, too, if you’re up to changing that.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Jan 10, 2009 11:18 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

One other thing

Based on the WAR spreadsheet, pitching-wise, this assumes we have Gallardo, Parra, Suppan, and Bush for about 160 innings but also projects Capuano for 160 innings and a 4.5 ERA. Though i like his chances of pitching in the majors this year at some point, I think that’s too optimistic. However, the addition of a Looper-type pitcher that can give us 160 and 4.5ish ERA makes this team have about a 50% chance at 88-89 wins. No reason to “give up” on the season right now.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Jan 10, 2009 12:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

This is what I’m talking about, for those following along

I’d expect Parra to beat his Marcel, based on improvement and luck, and that projection is just last year+ a few 07 innings regressed to average. I’d also expect Bush to be higher. That would balance out pretty closely, so not a big deal.

One thing I would be curious to see is how much Sheets would improve the team’s expected wins at 160-170 innings from 87.31. Could you replace Capuano with Sheets if you get a chance, just to see what it would do? Dang, he might kick it up to around 90 expected wins. Get on teh phone Doug!

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Jan 10, 2009 12:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

160 innings of Sheets is worth 3.8 WAR

Or, 1.2 wins above Capuano, which I guess is what we should be thinking about.

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Juuuust a bit outside!!
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by jhmoore on Jan 10, 2009 1:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

actually

1.06 WAR in the 45 innings you have going to a replacement starter, then .86 wins over Cappy in the remaining 115 Sheets innings. So a 2 win improvement assuming that level of health from everybody, which is probably optimistic.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jan 10, 2009 1:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, and you could argue that I'm not giving enough innings to SPs - this is assuming an average start of 5 1/3 IP

Another thing – Marcel’s projections for McClung and Villanueva include their time as SPs – if they’re in a straight reliever role, their ERA/FIP will likely be a bit lower.

---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by jhmoore on Jan 10, 2009 1:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Right, I was wondering about that

Last year, the breakdown was 983.1 / 472.1, so nearly 100 more starter innings than you project. Losing both Sheets and Sabathia, it seems likely that the overall number will go down, though probably not by that much — Gallardo will be good for 6+/start, Suppan was close last year, and Bush was above 6/start. (I would hope Parra will be good for that too, though he wasn’t last year.)

It may be that your two notes here cancel each other out — there will be more starter innings, but some of those come from Villy or McC, so the only problem is that you’ve got some starter innings listed under relievers.

Unless we sign Sheets :).

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jan 10, 2009 3:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, if we sign another SP I'll definitely bump up the total SP innings.

But as is, I think any difference is negligible.

---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by jhmoore on Jan 10, 2009 7:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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