Monday's Frosty Mug
My apologies for being unable to write Friday. A lot has been said about the Hoffman deal since Thursday, so it's time to bust out the bullet points:
- Michael Street of Baseball Digest Daily says Hoffman will be good but not great, and likely won't stay long in Milwaukee.
- Eric Karabell of ESPN says Hoffman's run as a Brewer may not be pretty, and compares Hoffman to Todd Jones at the end of his career, but thinks he'll still accumulate around 30 saves.
- Bleacher Report thinks Hoffman will post a 2.09 ERA with 42 saves and the Brewers will win 94 games and the NL Central.
- Tyler Maas of Bugs and Cranks is welcoming Hoffman with open arms.
- Dave Cameron of FanGraphs projects Hoffman as a +1 win or less pitcher in 2009, and thinks the Brewers will be back in the market for a closer for 2010.
- Between the Green Pillars has a point/counterpoint on the move, but is generally in favor.
- In-Between Hops likes Trevor Hoffman in the closer's role much more than Jeff Suppan.
- Big League Stew has inducted Hoffman into the Hall of Familiar Players Wearing Unfamiliar Uniforms.
- It is about the money, stupid thinks the combination of John Smoltz, Andy Pettitte and Trevor Hoffman's offseasons may signify the end of sentimentality.
- The Grand National Championships says those who compare this deal to the Gagne deal have a case.
- Brew City Sports wonders if the Brewers are prepared for the extra equipment the Hoffman signing may require.
Let's talk projections for a moment:
- Bleacher Report lists Yovani Gallardo as a breakout candidate for 2009.
- Replacement Level Yankees Weblog projects the Brewers to win 83.4 games and finish third in the Central. They give the Brewers a roughly 24% shot at the postseason. (h/t BBTF)
- In the FanShots, reader jhmoore gives the Brewers a 59% chance of winning 85 or more games.
Two minor league notes today: First, as noted in this Fanshot, Lisa Winston of MILB.com recently interviewed Lorenzo Cain. There's nothing groundbreaking in there, but it gives you a feel for the personality of one of the faster-rising Brewer prospects. Also, as of this writing Omar Aguilar leads Brad Nelson by nine votes in balloting for Community Prospect #13. Balloting closes at noon today, and I'm hoping to open the voting for #14 sometime around noon.
On the hot stove:
Braves: Will reportedly sign Kenshin Kawakami.
Cubs: Are reportedly close to a deal with 40-year-old Japanese pitcher Ken Takahashi.
Dodgers: Signed Shawn Estes to a minor league deal.
Marlins: Have reportedly been talking to Pedro Martinez about coming to Miami.
Mets: Newsday is reporting the Mets will likely sign either Oliver Perez or Derek Lowe. They also signed Tim Redding.
Nationals: Have reportedly packed up shop and left the free agent market.
Orioles: Ken Rosenthal is reporting the team may be interested in signing Jim Edmonds to play first base.
Rangers: Michael Young has reportedly asked to be traded after being told he'll be moving to third base for 2009.
Rays: May be done signing position players but may have interest in Gabe Kapler if B.J. Upton won't be ready by Opening Day.
Red Sox: Have reportedly signed Takashi Saito and re-signed Mark Kotsay.
Royals: Signed Willie Bloomquist to a two year deal worth $3 million.
Tigers: Signed Taiwanese pitcher Fu-Te Ni to a minor league deal.
More on Willie Bloomquist: Just how little value does he have? Joe Posnanski estimates that a lineup of nine Willie Bloomquists would score more than 400 runs less than a lineup of nine Adam Dunns.
How do you define clutch? It appears the folks over at Fire Jim Bowden may need a new formula, because their calculations show Johnny Estrada was the clutchiest National in 2008.
Oh, and I don't know about you, but I would have been glued to my TV for the series premiere of Turnbow: Texas Ranger.
Drink up.
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Bleacher Report is on crack
Corey Hart batting over .300 for a season? 94 wins? WTF?
It is certainly impossible
The distance between Hart’s .268 average and .300 at 612 AB is 20 hits. Clearly a statistical hurdle that even a 6’6" guy couldn’t clear. What kind of maroon would say that a 27 YO corner outfield entering his fourth full season in the majors could increase his hit total by 20 hits?? That’s just crazy talk.
by Getting Yosted on Jan 12, 2009 11:16 AM CST up reply actions
20 hits?
more walks, more hits, it’s possible. i doubt he’ll implode like he did late last year…i would say that was more of an unlikely anomaly (the implosion) than his potential to hit .300. but i ain’t no GM or statistical surgeon…
by One-Flap Down on Jan 12, 2009 11:44 AM CST up reply actions
Even at his best he can't hit .300!
Ignore that he was hitting .290 as late as Aug 18th this year, he was 4th in the NL in doubles and 4th in triples. He’s the suckiest suck that ever sucked.
by Getting Yosted on Jan 12, 2009 12:01 PM CST up reply actions
What's even more important to note
Is how irrelevant that .300 BA would be if Corey still refuses to take a walk and posts a .325 OBP.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 12, 2009 12:48 PM CST up reply actions
In addition to Turnbow: Texas Ranger,
“The Front Office” features Gord Ash as Kevin and Prince Fielder as Daryl. Two and a Half Men stars CC and David Eckstein.
Re: Bloomquist; hahahaha, also, who would ever trade for Michael Young? They’re going to have to eat that entire contract if they want to trade him.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
Typical AL bias by Posnanski
Yeah, in a DH league the Willie Bloomquists are obviously less valuable than the Adam Dunns, but make the 9th Willie a pitcher and the utility infield squad just might have a better run differential than the squad saddled with pitcher Adam Dunn.
Or at least that’s what Marty Brennaman just told me.
Someone explain this to me
Jim Rice is in the Hall of Fame, after posting an average OPS+ of 128 over 16 seasons. Albert Belle is dropped from the ballot for not receiving enough votes after averaging an OPS+ of 148 over 12 seasons with his career cut short by an injury. Rice’s career was cut short by him being average to not very good. Rice was only able to top Belle’s average OPS+ 3 times, with a high of 157 in ‘78. Belle had three seasons higher than Rice’s top year, with his best year an amazing 193.
I mean other than once again sports is too complicated for sports writers to understand.
Belle compared favorably to Puckett
Each had an injury shortened career (12 years). Ironically the difference was that Puckett was such a saint, because Belle had better numbers.
The unsatisfying but accurate answer is:
Belle was an ass to reporters and most other people, he’s widely suspected to have been the beneficiary of PEDs, he threw a bat at a fan in stands, he frequently destroyed clubhouse property after losses AND wins, he got caught using a corked bat AND and participating in an attempt steal one of his corked bats after it was seized by umps. One teammate, when asked why the Indians didn’t replace Belle’s corked bat with one of his non-corked bats (instead of a smaller bat with a different player’s name on it) said “Because all of Albert’s bats were corked.”
Not saying Belle wasn’t great in his day. He was. But my lasting memory of him is of him standing on the dugout step, staring at the White Sox dugout after his bat was seized and pointing to his own bicep, enraged that his prowess with the bat had been questioned, all the while knowing that the bat they took was corked and that the White Sox complaint was perfectly justified. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen an MLB player’s public persona more accurately portrayed in a single moment than that one portrayed Albert Belle.
I remember Rice too. I see the criticism of the decision and the negative comparison with Belle’s numbers. Right or wrong, off the field stuff comes into play in the HOF votes, and Belle’s frequent verbal abuse of reporters combined with the rest of the above pretty much doomed his HOF candidacy before he even retired. To get in with all that baggage, your numbers have to be overwhelming, and even then that may not be enough if you’re stained with a PED problem (though I still wonder if that stigma will fade with time and guys like Bonds and Mac will get in), and Belle’s career numbers aren’t overwhelming. Rice’s aren’t either, but he was well regarded and well liked, and he put up most of his numbers in the large-park, pre-PED era (in perception, if not reality). In the end, in a thin year for the HOF that kept writers from splitting their votes as they had in the past, the guys who liked him apparently won the argument.
My favorite Belle quote, and one that demonstrates that he has some insight and reason, is one he gave when discussing the fact that he routinely refused to talk to the press and why that made him unpopular, is “Why does everyone want to hear me talk anyway?”
An excellent question.
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 13, 2009 6:47 PM CST up reply actions
Takahashi
He was linked to the Brewers earlier this offseason, but his manager didn’t sound too optimistic about his chances in MLB.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.























