Defense, Corey Hart, and Adam Dunn
by Jordan M on Jan 17, 2009 8:05 PM CST
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PrintWould it be worth trading Mike Cameron for Melky Cabrera, and then using the salary savings to sign Adam Dunn, as was rumored? I'd be willing to bet that most people would think so, but I'm not so sure.
I'm strictly using CHONE projections for this quick analysis. None of the players CHONEs are much different than a Marcel projection, and CHONE puts a defensive projection in the mix as well. Here's the data I'm working with:
Adam Dunn wOBA: .373
Corey Hart wOBA: .355
Mike Cameron wOBA: .339
Corey Hart corner OF: +2
Corey Hart CF: -8
Adam Dunn corner OF: -13
Mike Cameron CF: +3
Converting these wOBAs to runs above average now. I'm using the 2008 major league OBP of .333 here. The calculation is wOBA-.333, then /1.15, then *PA. I'm using 600 PA to compare them on the same scale.
Dunn: 21 RAA
Hart: 11 RAA
Mike Cameron 3 RAA
We can then add 20 runs to compare to replacement, because replacement level is 20 runs below average per 600 plate appearances. We're using league average defense as replacement. Both alignments are comparing to replacement level.
So would you prefer (position, player, offense RAR, defensive CHONE projection):
CF Corey Hart +31, -8
RF Adam Dunn +41, -13
Total runs: 51
Or just leave it this way:
CF Mike Cameron +23, +3
RF Corey Hart +31, +2
Total runs: 59
Just to note, I am neglecting positional adjustments here-- it wouldn't make any difference in determing the value of each alignment, only if we're determining a player's individual worth.
I realize that Hart would have to bounce back nicely from a .327 '08 wOBA to make this model accurate. I'll also point out that I think it's pretty conservative to estimate that Hart would only be -8 in center, I think he'd be worse than that.
Making the move of trading for Cabrera and signing Dunn wouldn't have been a disaster, but it could well have been a near 1-win downgrade in the short term.
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Simple solution
Weeks to CF, Dunn to 2B. :)
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
That's crazy
We’ve already penciled Fielder in at second base.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
And he's leading off, due to his high OBP.
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 18, 2009 10:37 AM CST up reply actions
And baserunning ability
No one goes first to third like him. No wonder he has two in-the-park home runs!
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
No one goes first to third like him
This is true, but not really for the reason you’re outlining here.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
I was thinking more like this
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jan 18, 2009 12:01 PM CST up reply actions
I still don't understand why the guy on first to start the play...
… wasn’t called out for leaving the baseline. Or does that call only come into play when you’re evading a tag?
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 18, 2009 4:43 PM CST up reply actions
I think...
you have to be within a certain distance (15 feet?) of the baseline … not sure if the rule is different than when you’re trying to evade the tag. So anybody who has practiced that play knows to take three aggressive steps then stop.
Might be that, when you do that, you aren’t leaving the straight-line baseline any more than someone who is “rounding” the bag …just in a different direction. Pretty obviously, the rule was written to allow for rounding, not for deking a charge to the mound!
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jan 18, 2009 6:21 PM CST up reply actions
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