Would it be unreasonable to expect Fielder-like production from Lawrie? Not 50-HR Fielder, but maybe 2008 Fielder. Someone who could protect Braun in the line-up. Granted there are almost no stats or anything to go on so it’s not the easiest question to answer. I’m just wondering what people are expecting because of all the trade Fielder talk going on.

And another offshoot of what I’m talking about … some players you have to draft out of HS, because if you don’t, someone else will, but most good players have a six-year peak from 24-30 or 25-31. So somebody who debuts at 23 or 24 — think Pedroia, Braun, pretty much any high-profile college guy — is under team control for much of their peak. But somebody who debuts at 20 or 21 … they hit FA in their mid-20s. Extreme example is Felix Hernandez, who I just read will be FA-eligible at age 25. Obviously he has the chance to be great from age 23-25, but the M’s blew a cheap-Felix year on ’06 20y.o. Felix (ERA+ of 98), and maybe even ’07 21yo Felix (ERA+ of 110).

Not to say they should’ve or even could’ve held him back. Or that any team should, with a Gallardo or Justin Upton or the like. But it certainly sheds some light on why college players can be better values—to the team that drafts them—than HS players who may end up to be better but put up their big numbers only after they get expensive.