BCB Projections: First Basemen
Today we project the first basemen. The ground rules are the same-- slash lines and playing time-- and here's the format for the projections:
.avg/.obp/.slg (PA) Fielder
.avg/.obp/.slg (PA) Backup
.300/.350/.400 (75) Starter last name
.270/.330/.400 (25) Backup last name
The player capsules will be the same for all of the players. The player's name links to his CHONE projection page. The first slash line is his career stats, second is 2008 performance or MLE, and the 5-row table is the player's 30th, 40th, 50th, 60th, and 70th percentile CHONE projections.
Use as many players as you need, and make sure the amount of plate appearances totals 100 percent. Again, we don't need percentage signs, just the whole number is fine.
We encourage everyone to participate, once again. If you haven't helped in our catcher projections yet, please go there and do so. The catcher projections story also contains the background for this whole project. If you personally dislike projecting catchers and want to help us with first basemen, jump on in here.
A few notes: Fielder received about 98% of the first basemen plate appearances last year, 694/707. Brad Nelson's CHONE projections are included, you can also project Mike Rivera for any playing time here; if you do this, just give the percentage of plate appearances he'll receive if you've already projected him in the catcher thread. Keep in mind that Nelson is out of minor league options.
Some trends our projectors might find relevant: Fielder's HR/FB ratio went down from 23% in 2007 to 18% in 2008. His overall amount of flyballs hit also went down. His line drives stayed quite constant, with an increase in ground balls taking away from the amount of fly balls.
Finally, I played around with some HTML scripting to format these horizontal rules and tables. If anything looks funny or strange, let me know in the comments so I can fix it. Firefox seems to align the tables to the left like I want them to be, and Explorer puts them in the center, though it still looks fine.
In tomorrow's post, I'll wrap up the catcher projections and open the second basemen projections. We'll allow two days for each one, so you can take your time if you want to think it through. Thanks for your participation.
Prince Fielder
Career: .278/.370/.533
2008: .276/.372/.507
| 30% | 0.273 | 0.370 | 0.517 |
| 40% | 0.280 | 0.379 | 0.536 |
| 50% | 0.286 | 0.388 | 0.555 |
| 60% | 0.294 | 0.397 | 0.575 |
| 70% | 0.302 | 0.407 | 0.590 |
Brad Nelson
Career (minors): .269/.347/.439
2008 (AAA MLE): .249/.345/.398
| 30% | 0.240 | 0.329 | 0.379 |
| 40% | 0.247 | 0.339 | 0.394 |
| 50% | 0.254 | 0.349 | 0.407 |
| 60% | 0.261 | 0.357 | 0.432 |
| 70% | 0.270 | 0.367 | 0.451 |
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.270/.370/.540 (90) Fielder
.260/.320/.380 (5) Lamb
.242/.295/.390 (5) Rivera
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
Same thing as last time
CHONE 30, 40, 50, 60, and 70th percentile projections. I’ll insert a little note in the post clearing that up.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
Let's say you simulate a player's season 100 times.
Then you rank all the seasons. The best season would be the 100th percentile. So the 50th percentile is the exact middle of the spectrum. The 60th is 10% more optimistic. 70th is 10% more optimistic than that.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 20, 2009 10:18 AM CST up reply actions
Fielder -.287/.376/.572 (99)
Trent Durrington .210/.190/.200 (1) and 17 stolen bases
by Trent Durrington on Jan 19, 2009 9:21 PM CST reply actions
lots of walks and homers for prince
.284/.398/.575 (90) Fielder
.251/.330/.395 (7) Nelson
.290/.358/.430 (3) Rivera

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