Rickie Weeks Future

by marty22 on Jan 20, 2009 4:58 PM CST Comment 25 comments

This arbitration talk and the 2nd base projections have got me thinking about Rickie Weeks more and more. I guess I didn't really realize that he is already in his 2nd arbitration year, and will be a FA after next.

I got to thinking about his future with the Brewers and came to the conclusion that I think I'd really be in favor of signing Rickie to a 4 year or so deal. I just see a possibility of tremendous value in such a deal. His struggles have been well-chronicled, but the more advanced metrics show that he is, at worst, around league average. We all have seen his flashes of brilliance, and the underlying potential that may or may not ever show itself, but I think if we could lock him up at league average price, there is fairly low risk involved, especially with his age still below the magical 27 (I think).

Below are a few fangraph stats:

Weeks 6th in WPA for 2B in 2008

.334 wOBA, with .333 about average (I believe) for all positions

Sorry if these are cherry-picked, I don't yet have the stat-savvy experience of KLSnow, Sackmann, jihad, or the likes....

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It's actually his first arbitration

He had a relatively large contract last year because there’s a limit to how much you can reduce a (non-free agent) player’s salary from year to year. Weeks got a pretty good major league deal right after being drafted, so that forced the Brewers to pay him a little over $1 million last year even without going to arbitration. Since he’s currently at 3 years, 131 days of major league service, Rickie won’t be a free agent until after 2011.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jan 20, 2009 5:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Ah thanks

That makes more sense, I thought i read it was his second arb year somewhere and that didn’t make sense. Still would like the extension though

by marty22 on Jan 20, 2009 6:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't dispute that he has value...

… and more than I’ve been willing to attribute to him. But it seems to me we can get a “league average” 2b for a lot less than RIckie would cost in a 4 year contract. But I see you working with the idea that he’ll still blossom at some point and that his current struggles have given us the opportunity to lock him up longer than we would have otherwise. I don’t really agree with it, but I see the point.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 20, 2009 6:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

You make a good point in that we may not be able to get a league average price on Rickie. It somewhat boils down to the stance of him and his agent; if they truly believe he’ll stay healthy and break out, he’ll go year to year, whereas if he is unsure about his potential and wants some insurance from injury, he may sign. Kind of a catch22, in that if he is unsure about his potential and would be amicable to a long term deal, he may not have the motivation/makeup to blossom, but that’s something we’ll never know.

by marty22 on Jan 20, 2009 6:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

well...

let’s stick dollar figures on this.

If we figure Rickie settles at the midpoint, that $2.4MM. That’s probably about right for his current level of health and production — IOW, we’re not paying him $2.4MM because he was a super-awesome #2 overall pick, we’re paying him $2.4MM because that’s what players with track records like his get in arb1.

Typical pattern for arb contracts is 40/60/80 percent of FA value — so if 2.4MM is 40%, then ‘10 would be 3.6MM, ’11 would be 4.8MM, then FA1 (2012) would be $6MM. Adjust those for typical salary inflation and you’ve probably got something more like $2.4 / $4 / $5.5 / $7.

That would be a friggin’ steal. The problem is, Rickie and his agent know what Rickie’s ceiling is, and they are probably more optimistic about Rickie reaching it than the Brewers are. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Brewers offered a deal like the one I described, so 4 yrs for $19MM, maybe a 2013 option for $10MM or something. (remember, that’s more like $8.5MM in ‘09 salary dollars) And if Rickie were … oh, I don’t know, more like Bill Hall at the same age—similar skills without the hype—he’d probably take it.

But…Rickie knows that if he puts up one big year in ‘10 or ’11, esp. if he convinces the world he’s not a liability at second base, he’s going to be in line for a mega-contract at age 28. If he doesn’t, he’ll still get similar money in ’10 and ’11.

The problem is the same as measuring his trade value — even if the FO has decided we’re seeing what Rickie can do right now, there’s enough five-tool prospect pixie dust still floating around that Melvin wouldn’t want to pull the trigger on a trade unless he’s being compensated in some way for the potential upside.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Jan 20, 2009 8:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That would be a steal...

Considering he was worth 5 wins over the last two seasons and CHONE, Marcel and BJ all have him as a breakout guy this year @ 3~3.5 Wins. That alone is worth almost $19M.

by Braun Holio on Jan 20, 2009 9:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Rickie Weeks...breakout guy

Sun rising…east, etc.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jan 20, 2009 9:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Some interesting stats

Like has been said already, Weeks’ low avg. and strikeouts have been well chronicled and are concerning. However he did have the second most runs scored in the NL last season, and to think of what that number could jump to if he can raise his AVG and OBP some points is mind-blowing.

Also, when I saw Melvin speak yesterday he mentioned an interesting stat (the numbers might not be right on but are very close – my memory isn’t very good)

-On singles with Weeks on second base, he scored a league leading 23 out of 24 times. For some comparison, Johnny Damon scored just 9 of 22 times.

by ajoconnor on Jan 20, 2009 10:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

HE KNOWS HOW TO SCORE RUNS

by HRF on Jan 20, 2009 10:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

hahaha

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 21, 2009 9:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Wishful Thinking?

My thought is the Crew should trade him (coupled with someone if necessary) for Roberts of the Orioles. Here’s why, Roberts is a lefty who could bat lead off. The Orioles are positioning themselves for the future. Robert’s name was hot in trade rumors last year so I assume he’s available for the right offer. Rickie is never going to be a good lead off guy because of his strikeouts, but his potential is there to be a solid second baseman at a good price for the next few year’s and there’s the possibility that he could reach his potential and be great #2 or #5 hitter in a lineup. The Crew has lots of options at second for the future if Roberts is looking to leave via free agency after a year or so.

by Cushdog on Jan 21, 2009 9:36 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Roberts would be a good fit

Roberts is exactly the type of player the brewers could use in the leadoff spot – high OBP, steals bases, and has some pop. Compared to Weeks’ past few seasons, Roberts has done much better.

However, you are right that we would have to give up more than just Weeks to get Roberts, who is a two time all-star second baseman. I’m guessing that what we would have to give up in addition to Weeks was too much for one year of Roberts. Also, we would need to pay him much more than what we would get Weeks for, even before Roberts becomes a free agent. Roberts made over 6 mil last season and I expect he is making more for 2009.

by ajoconnor on Jan 21, 2009 11:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

"Rickie is never going to be a good lead off guy because of his strikeouts"

You’re just baiting KL now, aren’t you?

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 21, 2009 12:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I just don't understand that leadoff man=no strikeouts concept

Leadoff men have the fewest batters on base, so strikeouts hurt less because there aren’t as many runners to advance. They also prevent double plays. Strikeouts are almost entirely irrelevant for a leadoff hitter. Now, obviously line drives or in most cases balls in play are preferable to a strikeout, but if you’re comparing groundout to strikeout, there is extremely little difference. For the same reason, walks are just as good as hits for a leadoff man usually. So Rickie is almost the perfect type of hitter to bat first.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Jan 21, 2009 2:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't agree - balls in play are waaay better then strikeouts

Rickie’s fast and therefore is less susceptible to double plays – he’ll cause errors because infielder’s are rushing the throw – but all that is beside the point. If we had more lefties in the lineup I could live with him –he’d be better further down in the lineup (7 in front of Kendall). Ideally we’d have a lefty center fielder that would hit lead off – so Rickie could bring what Cameron brings at a hugely reduced cost.

by Cushdog on Jan 21, 2009 2:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I AM NOT ARGUING THAT BALLS IN PLAY ARE WORSE THAN STRIKEOUTS

I am arguing that outs on balls in play are pretty much equal to strikeouts. Some outs on balls in play advance runners, some turn into double plays. Therefore, they are roughly equal. In general, balls in play are better than strikeouts, yes, by a lot, because they could be hits.

Ideally, we would have Albert Pujols, Adrian Beltre, and Carlos Voltron, but we don’t. We have Rickie Weeks.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Jan 21, 2009 3:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Are you kidding?

Do you know how much the Cardinal fans would bitch about Albert if he wasn’t a Cardinal. That much whining would really suck. It is much better to have Weeks and just listen to them complain about shirts being untucked.

by Getting Yosted on Jan 21, 2009 3:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Ideally we would have 9 Laportas.

Eric Gagne DL time: May 23-June 29 Brewers record in that span: 20-9

by NoahJ on Jan 21, 2009 7:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

This may not be the case with Cushdog...

… but it certainly appears that the common perception is that a guy with a lot of k’s has a bad OBP, which isn’t the case with our man Weeks. Even Melvin thought Weeks’ numbers were strange last year, so I guess it’s not really surprising that the k’s lead to the perception that Weeks is a bad fit for the leadoff spot among the great unwashed (and I include myself in that group.)

I’ve come around to the notion that Weeks is as good in the leadoff spot as anyone we have and that it’s probably the best place to hit him as long as his OBP remains high. But I can appreciate where Cushdog is coming from. It IS exasperating to see someone with Weeks’ speed routinely fail to make contact on swings (or hit the inevitable 2+ pop flies per game) when he’d have a better shot than most of running out anything on the ground. As long as he continues to draw walks the way he has, then it doesn’t much matter how he makes outs when he makes them, but that doesn’t make him any less frustrating to watch.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 21, 2009 5:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Ks are viewed as a matchup with the pitcher that the batter loses. Hitting the ball solidly is viewed as a victory although it doesn’t always equal a hit.

I came across yet another stat and it had Rickie rated pretty high. I couldn’t find it when I looked for it again, but I think if he just bumps up his average a bit and gets the same number of walks or a few more, the perception of him will be much better.

I guess for me the frustrating Ks for both Cam and Rickie are the ones where the ball is on the outer half of the plate and they seem like they’re hoping for a call from the ump rather than fouling it off or going the other way. That could be a lot of my imagination though.

by ol Pete on Jan 21, 2009 6:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Right

I think that’s the same thing with batting average: although it’s not nearly as useful as OBP, it seems to be a more visceral stat (i.e., a .240 hitter isn’t very good, no matter how many walks he has).

The thinking would be something like:

strikeout: pitcher wins
ball in play: roll of the dice
walk: tie, and the pitcher tips his cap to the baserunner as he jogs up the first base line
hit: batter wins

I mean, on a very basic level, this is largely true. Still, it overemphazies the importance of the strikeout and doesn’t give taking a walk enough credit.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jan 22, 2009 5:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well Shoot! If a high OBP is good, and Ks don’t matter, we should have Adam Dunn leading off!

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 21, 2009 9:25 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Not a terrible idea

Speed helps though, and Dunn’s slugging ability can be better leveraged in the middle of the order. I get the impression you’re not being serious, though.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Jan 21, 2009 9:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Nope, just foolin'

I don’t know that I’ve ever seen Dunn do anything more than ‘lumbering’. It would still be hilarious seeing him try to beat out in infield bunt.

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 21, 2009 9:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

IIRC

Dunn lead off for the Reds for a little while last year or two years ago

It is what it is.

by coolig on Jan 22, 2009 11:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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