Thursday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 22, 2009 8:52 AM CST
Email
PrintSo, rumor has it the Brewers are close to a two-year deal with Prince Fielder. The JS is reporting that a two-year deal is on the table. For 2009, though, FanGraphs says Fielder's value as a player in arbitration for the first time is much closer to $6 million than $8 million.
Meanwhile, Jim Powell is packing his things and moving on to Atlanta. I'm having a hard time imagining Brewer games on the radio without him. If nothing else, who else will know all of Uecker's recurring jokes? It's fitting that a blog called Pocket Doppler also has a post about Powell.
The Official Site talked to Yovani Gallardo yesterday about the possibility of playing in the WBC for Team Mexico. He seems serious about playing, and the Brewers don't seem to have any intention of trying to stop him.
Trevor Hoffman is 41 years old, and his ERA and FIP both took a significant jump last year, but it's not all bad news: Apparently the velocity on Hoffman's fastball was up last year, higher than it's been in any season since 2004. So there is that.
There hasn't really been any movement on this front in weeks, but I guess that doesn't mean there couldn't be: Tyler Maas of Bugs & Cranks thinks the Brewers should continue to pursue Braden Looper.
FakeTeams says Ryan Braun is the best NL outfielder in 2008 for your fantasy team. I guess that's not really a surprise. Scroll down the list a little farther, though, and you'll find Corey Hart at #8, and I think that might surprise some people.
On the other end of the spectrum, there are some Brewers on lists you don't want to be on: Jayson Stark has compiled lists of dubious achievements in the '00s, and Mike Cameron (third most strikeouts), Jeff Suppan (second most home runs allowed) and Jason Kendall (second most errors by a catcher) are alongside former Brewers Henry Blanco (lowest batting average w/ 2000+ PA), Russell Branyan (second lowest batting average w/ 2000+ PA) and Francisco Cordero (second most blown saves). (h/t IIATMS)
On the hot stove:
Dodgers: Jeff Kent is expected to announce his retirement today. They also signed Brad Ausmus.
Padres: Signed Henry Blanco to a one-year deal.
Think you could handle the hot stove better yourself? Then you might be interested in trying MLB Front Office Manager. I know I want a copy. (h/t Crawfish Boxes)
So Laynce Nix was never very impressive as a Brewer, but maybe he was just in the wrong league. Inexplicably, Laynce Nix owns Gil Meche. In 14 plate appearances against Meche, Nix has four times as many home runs (4) as he hit in his entire 61 plate appearance career in Milwaukee (1).
New Mariner David Aardsma has an interesting claim to fame: When he made his major league debut, he replaced Hank Aaron as the first player in major league baseball history, alphabetically. Lookout Landing takes a look at some other things that are first on lists.
Obviously, there's a market-size gap in baseball, but frequently the difference between a big payroll and a small one isn't market size, it's the difference between seeing a high payroll as an investment or an expense. Follow the link to see a post on why the Blue Jays are on the wrong side of that argument.
Oh, and the current economic situation means it's not a good time to be a minor league baseball player.
Drink up.
50 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Do we need a Looper?
I checked the schedule and it looks like a number 5 starter would only have to pitch 2 games in April. By May 1, Capuano could be healthy and Melvin seems to be really high on Capuano and his potential this year.
Now I’m not the biggest Capuano fan in the world, but would the additional salary of a Braden Looper be worth it if we get a legitimate starter out of Capuano May 1st? Especially considering they might be leaving some salary room for a mid-season acquisition if they can keep up with the Cubs through the trade deadline.
Anything the Brewers get from Capuano in 2009 is a bonus, IMO.
Capuano posted an ERA over 5 the last time he pitched (2007), hasn’t pitched a in year, may or may not be ready to pitch in April, or May, or June, and even if he is ready and effective, that still only leaves the Brewers with 6 big-league-caliber starters, one of whom is Jeff Suppan, who may or may not be a total loss.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
Probably
I don’t think we can count on Cappy contributing significant innings this season. If we did pencil him in as a starter, then 40% of our rotation missed most of last season due to injury - not a good indication that we’ll make it through 2009 injury-free.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
So are they writing off 2009?
Do we generally think they’re writing off 2009, then? The Cubs have only gotten better in the offseason so the postseason are a stretch, even with Looper. It doesn’t necessarily make financial sense to spend a few extra million dollars to go 80-82 instead of 76-86. Neither record gets your team to the playoffs and neither generates any positive buzz.
It’s pretty depressing not to have added any starters this offseason. Worst offseason, indeed.
Worst?
We are one good pitcher away from a good team. We couldn’t afford Sabathia vs. the Yankees. Sheets appears to be a late off season signing to someone (hopefully us). The bats should be plenty fine, we just need to solidify #5 and hope that spot starters/Cappy can hold the fort during times of injury.
We aren’t nearly as deep in pitching this year, but I’m not writing off 2009 yet. Injuries in the division is probably going to ultimately decide it. Hardens injury could knock down the Cubs, yet an injury for the Brewers could devastate the rotation and season. But remember, Nedly can’t hurt us anymore. So hopefully Macha actually makes sound managerial decisions. Look at how long the Red Birds lasted in the hunt last year, and they were pretty much written off at the start of the season by just about everyone.
I agree pretty much with you. I think the Macha factor could be significant. Taking away the green light on eye high fastballs, no pitching platoons, et cetera.
I should add that others have written off this year long ago. I tried to find out the reasoning and what the guy thought should be done, but never managed. Getting rid of Corey Hart was one step. Dumping Fielder was another.
The reasoning is simple:
Everyone else has gotten better.
The Brewers have gotten worse.
The Brewers only had an 86-76 Pythagorean Record.
There is no difference between winning 86 games and not making the playoffs versus winning 84 games and not making the playoffs. Or 82 games. Or 78 games.
It is a better use of a team’s resources to be spending money when the team has a better chance of contending.
And I don’t think anyone wants to dump Fielder. Unless “Dumping Fielder” to you means wanting to get a legit no. 1 or a no. 2 in return.
Pitching
The Brewers should have made at least 1 move on a risk-reward type guy like Smoltz, Penny, Prior, Mulder.
Doesn’t Hoffman qualify in that category? He doesn’t have the injury history those guys have, but his age alone makes the risk higher.
It's called "playing the percentages."
sure
and it would be remiss to ignore his fly ball rates and the fact that Miller Park is less pitcher friendly than Petco.
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 22, 2009 1:27 PM CST up reply actions
No
Because he is not a starting pitcher and has no history of injury. His WHIP was excellent last year, albeit in that canyon of a ball park. I wouldnt classify Hoffman as a risk-reward move. I classify him as a good closer who will do no worse than the Gagne/Torres combo.
eh...
he was injured in 2003 and had shoulder surgery, if I recall correctly.
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 22, 2009 1:39 PM CST up reply actions
Did they say that?
I really don’t know if they did but I don’t seem to recall reading anything about Melvin targeting any of these guys.
Prior is from San Diego and wanted to be home while he rehabed and attempted a comeback. I believe Penney made comments about wanting to play for Boston over other cities.
The Brewers could never afford to throw $5 million for a pitcher that might not even pitch next year….Boston can.
You’re all over the place other than ’09 is pretty much a no hope year and they can contend in ’10 although you refuse to reveal the advanced analysis that determines that.
Hopefully, Weeks can learn CF in a year, Hardy 3rd or 2nd or who knows, Escobar will be hitting major league pitching, Gamel will be ok in the outfield (I guess Braun may have to get used to right), Prince’s old player profile doesn’t continue, Salome is polished up defensively and is hitting major league pitching. Parra has to change radically and that might not be possible and who knows is in the rest of the rotation besides Gallardo and Manny.
Yeah, ’10 looks like a competitive year if only they punt on ’09 and make some smart moves.
You’re all over the place other than ’09 is pretty much a no hope year and they can contend in ’10 although you refuse to reveal the advanced analysis that determines that.
You think Pythagorean Records are advanced analysis?
Teams with higher or even Pythagorean Records in 2008:
Cubs 97-64
Phillies 92-70
Mets 89-73
Dodgers 86-76
Cardinals 86-76
Others close:
Marlins 81-81
Diamondbacks 81-81
Braves 78-84 (and that’s with punting the second half)
Gallardo replacing Sheets should hopefully be a wash. But there’s no replacing Sabathia. The bullpen isn’t improved. The lineup still has question marks.
Hopefully, Weeks can learn CF in a year
It’s worth the flier. The Brewers were an 86 win team that’s gotten worse. Unless you think 81 wins gets you into the playoffs this year—unlikely, not worth being counted on—or that the Offense has a huge outburst to counter the offseason loses—unlikely, can’t be counted on—the risk/reward for moving Weeks is clear. The comparable for Weeks isn’t Hall, it’s Upton.
Hardy 3rd or 2nd or who knows, Escobar will be hitting major league pitching,
By all scouting accounts, Escobar’s got the better glove and range. And—and we all know you hate this stat—he was +22 in the field last year in AA. Hardy is a great player, one I want to keep just as long as Braun. But Escobar’s glove is going to be what earns him his paycheck, and his glove is more valuable at SS than it is at 2B. Hardy’s bat will play at third. Hardy’s bat will more than play at second and he’ll play elite defense at either of those positions. It maximizes the value of the team moving Hardy and putting Escobar at short. Either they have great defense up the middle if Hardy goes to second, or they have one of the best fielding left sides of the infield—if not the best—in baseball.
Gamel will be ok in the outfield (I guess Braun may have to get used to right),
Gamel’s not ok at third. Fielder’s blocking him at first. There’s only a marginally over replacement player blocking him in the outfield. Braun has the athleticism for right, shift him over, let Gamel play left.
Prince’s old player profile doesn’t continue,
I said he has “old man skills”. Young players that already have old man skills tend to not have the long careers. He’s still a good player and I’ve never, ever said differently. It’s just likely that he won’t be a good player for a long time.
Saying a player has “old man skills” is not saying he’s a bad player. It’s being a realist.
Salome is polished up defensively and is hitting major league pitching.
He cannot be worse than Kendall. Kendall’s done in a year here anyways. I’d open 2009 with Salome in the minors, then if he’s even close to what he did in AA last year, call him up around June or July. If they’re not going to be contending, get him—and Escobar, and Gamel—the major league, everyday at bats.
Parra has to change radically and that might not be possible
I love how you continue to get out of shape over the sad fact that Parra has a high WHIP. I never said he has to change radically, I said he needs to stop walking people. This is a valid criticism. If you consider “has to change radically” being “stop walking people”, then, well, you need help.
and who knows is in the rest of the rotation besides Gallardo and Manny.
It looks like Bush, Suppan and….. blank. Even an eternal optimist can’t find great solace in that.
Yeah, ’10 looks like a competitive year if only they punt on ’09 and make some smart moves.
And ‘09 doesn’t look competitive. So, do they chase down the unlikely this year, or punt and be better prepared for the future?
Sorry
I can’t get past the fabricated statement/insult that I don’t believe in Pythagorean analysis. I don’t see the ’10 starting pitching lineup either.
I didn’t say you don’t believe in it. I questioned how Pythagorean records are in any way, shape or form advanced.
But if you want to use that as an excuse as to not respond to the rest, more power to you.
And now, a picture of a fat man throwing a hot pocket.
I'm not sure why you keep posting that video
There’s not much to respond to and the single simple question I asked you didn’t respond to.
By all means explain why you would ask whether Pythagorean records are advanced.
I had forgotten the Yosting factor
There is hope this season!
I guess I just assume there will be injuries to the starting rotation. No team goes without them.
That should be a front page poll
I’ll say…Jason Kendall. Without Nedly giving him tips, he’ll forget how to throw out baserunners, making his .650 OPS less tolerable.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
I agree on the poll
I’d actually be interested to see what the results are.
I’d probably go with Kendall as well.
Wish granted!
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 22, 2009 10:41 AM CST up reply actions
Weeks
irrationally hate
Given his overall numbers and the fact that he is ‘average’, a strong argument can be made to despise Ricky every time he bounces a throw in the dirt on a gimme 6-4-3 for a fair amount of irrationally hate
by Saberilliterate on Jan 22, 2009 10:32 AM CST up reply actions
Pfft
Where’s the challenge in guessing Weeks? I bet when you fill out your NCAA Tournament Bracket, you pick all #1 seeds in your final four. :)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Mike Lamb
For taking Mat Gamel’s roster spot.
by Getting Yosted on Jan 22, 2009 10:34 AM CST up reply actions
Francisco Cordero
Cordero is first on at least one (insignificant) list: first inductee (along with Robert Fick and Brandon Inge) into the West Michigan Whitecaps Hall of Fame.
Yeah, I know. Nobody cares.
It's called "playing the percentages."
John Garland
Just curious, I know he stinks and his numbers are declining, but at this point would you take Garland on a 1 year deal?
Sometime after
Ben Sheets, Oliver Perez, Braden Looper and Randy Wolf are all gone.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 22, 2009 12:23 PM CST up reply actions
How about....
Curt Schilling, who missed all of last season because of shoulder problems, began working out about three weeks ago to determine if he will pitch again in 2009 or retire.
"I’m giving it six to eight weeks, see how it comes along and then going from there most likely," said Schilling, in an e-mail message.
If he says he can pitch and will take less than $10 million, do you take a shot with him?
I think Mark Mulder is a similar (or lesser) risk, and will be cheaper.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
NO
He’s been out over a year. See above re Mark Mulder. At least guys like Mulder and Prior are under 40.
As I keep saying, you can pay Mark DiFelice $400K a year for the same result.
(and a team can get Paul Byrd or Tom Glavine mid-season as well, if they want more old dudes who are probably toast)
KL
Is it possible to communicate with you without sending email? How about in some old thread and then you can nuke it or something?
Email would be preferred
Most old threads have comments closed after a month.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 22, 2009 12:56 PM CST up reply actions
I’d say he comes up and probably becomes the preferred platooneer(eh, is that a word?) with Hall. But, long-term, 31 E in 1 season is not sustainable at 3B.
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 22, 2009 2:30 PM CST up reply actions
If he can OPS 1.000+
I think we’ll learn to live with it.
by Getting Yosted on Jan 22, 2009 3:04 PM CST up reply actions
Aardsma
I believe some people booed when he made his debut, knowing he was supplanting Aaron at the beginning of all the player registers.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
His quote afterwards was my favorite part.
A reporter asked him about it and he said, “I couldn’t have done it without my parents.”
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.13.2012 at 7:02 PM CST)
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Five tips for Showtime’s second season of ‘The Franchise,’ featuring the Miami Marlins
- The 10 best things about being a Detroit Tigers fan
- Surprise! A’s finally end the Yoenis Cespedes derby with $36 million deal for Cuban star
- The time Whitney Houston sang to Jim Bowden
- Pitchers and catchers! Mariners get early start in Arizona
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
