Word.

Trade Cameron for Melky and you save money… but on what does that go?
Sheets seems to want out. Then there are a lot of #5’s available.

I would rather Cameron + Capuano/Villy to Cabrera + Garland.

The trade scenario is more interesting but who you trade/get back is pretty much speculation at this point.

Does swapping Cameron for Melky and a Free Agent Pitcher make the team any better?
Does swapping Cameron for Melky and a Free Agent Pitcher make the team viable to make the playoffs?

but if it’s Braden Looper, I’d say it’s a wash. Cam and Looper are around 2-3 wins above replacement.

I’d be interested in what “others” means. Craig Counsell? Another relatively cheap free agent pitcher? It’d be interesting to go through everyone currently under contract and see what the total comes out to.

Cabrera is projected to improve to a one win player. (I am not signing on to that!)

Looper as a starter has never been worth more than 1.7
Garland about 3 wins…(until last year)
Wolf 2 wins

Maybe it’s a wash. But don’t forget that all of these guys will want more than one year. Think you hate Supp now, wait until you are paying Garland in 2011.

“Melky + FA pitcher: the upgrade from Melky to Mikey isn’t worth a frontline starter”

Of course the gap from M-M is worth a frontline starter. The response should read “the upgrade from Melky to Mikey isn’t worth John Garland.”

if we could sign sheets or looper or garland or wolf somebody i would feel a whole lot better

I just do not see the kind of depth that we had last Spring training at this point. The Crew will need find some quality pitcher soon, or thyet will be in a world of trouble.

I’m going to censor myself, but #5 is the point that stands out most from this off-season. My faith in the stache is completely shaken. He did not do what was necessary to make sure our team is competitive for the next season. And for that, I am extremely disappointed.

It has become obvious that there was no contingency plan after a predictably futile quest for CC. As a GM, you have to know a decent estimate of what your Arby players are going to run you, and then budget to fill the needs of your team. If you can’t get a #2 or #3 starter to back up your young ace, be honest with us and tell us that. You can’t dupe the fan base in to thinking we have a chance to be a competitive team, and then pull the rug out from under us 3 months later. It isn’t truthful or fair to the fan base.

My confidence has been shaken in his abilities, and a Melky or Cameron debate isn’t going to solve this team’s glaring weaknesses, including the lack of a 2nd reliable starter.

…Or we could get some of that bailout money.

Given Charlie Marlow’s numbers above, was this all but inevitable? I mean, without a trade of Fielder or Cameron (or Hall or Suppan, I guess), the money was gone when Cameron’s option was picked up. I never really thought they had to trade someone to get a starter, but it’s blatantly obvious now, isn’t it?

I voted Melky+pitcher.

Not that I’ve been hiding that preference. Or that I was for picking up Cameron’s option in the first place. Due to the fact we were inevitably going to lost both Sabathia and Sheets. And then we’re relying on a guy coming off of a major knee injury and less than 40IP last year, and a career high 188 in 2007 to be the ace pitcher. And a guy who threw 33 more innings than the year before (and though at 26 isn’t “technically” in YAE parameters, but still). And Jeff Suppan.

Ah well. The Cardinal’s staff surprised everyone last season, who knows.

Should we really have spent $6 million on a closer when we only have three starters (YoGa, Manny, Bush) who can regularly get us to closing situations?

I like Hoffman and all … but let’s say we save the $6M and try to do a close-by-committee with Coffey, Clung and Julio — far from ideal, but you’ve gotta skimp somewhere in this market.

Then we use that $6M plus two more on a Looper deal (not sure what he costs, so I’m just guessing here), or that $6M plus four more on a Sheets deal, and our payroll is still under that magic $85M number. I’d feel so much better about that situation.

OR — and this is what I’m praying is the secret scenario — we’re trying to send a message to agents for Looper/Sheets/etc, who think we have big $$$$ laying around after being dissed by CC, and want a big chunk of it. We’re still negotiating with them, but looking to regain the upper hand by saying we’re in a tight financial spot, and we can only give a limited amount. (God I hope this is true … even though I highly doubt it.)

It looks like, given revenue sharing, our TV/radio deals, etc., that we’re always going to be an $80-85 million payroll club, extending only to as much as, say, $90 million when doing so gets us playoff revenue.

If Melvin knows that going in, why in the name of all that is good and toasty would he offer a contract that gives Jeff Suppan about 1/7 of our whole annual salary for 2009 and 2010? Admittedly, Suppan has way way underperformed compared to his 4 previous seasons in St. Louis, but given his age, wasn’t it foolish to assume that Suppan would be living up to a $12.5 million salary right now? The signs were there, such as 4 straight seasons with an increasing WHIP. (Not to mention the fact that he never was a dominant pitcher, exactly: career numbers of a 4.63 ERA and 1.43 WHIP.) I was trying to see the best of it at the time, but the fact that his performance since joining the Brewers has been particularly underwhelming can’t have been totally out of the blue.

Also, surely Melvin knows we’re paying a lot more for the same talent as last season, be it due to increases from arbitration (e.g., Fielder) or increases from contract salary bumps (e.g., Hall, Suppan). We’ll be starting the same group of players as last year (the ones who didn’t leave, anyway), but paying an additional $20+ million for the privilege. Again, given our $85 million wall, if you can’t raise the payroll, then paying that extra money for the same results (and thus not being able to afford the pitching you had OR the pitching you need) sounds like a recipe for a bad, bad season. By our small market model, I think we’re reaching the point where we start trading players who are becoming too expensive for our payroll. Cameron and Fielder may both be values for their current salaries in the open market, but for the Brewers at this time - given how we’ve handcuffed ourselves with Hall and Suppan - I think we’re at that point where if you can start Gamel at first (or, if he’s not ready, use Nelson or a journeyman 1B until he is), you need to to remain competitive.

I guess…if in three weeks our team looks like it does now, that could be bad.

My faith in the Stache remains strong. They’re going to open the season with this team – of that I have no doubt. BUT and it’s a big one – along about the end of May or June, someone’s going to realize that their middle infielders suck and they’re going to want to talk to the Crew about Hall, or JJ or Rickie or a prospect. When that happens, the Crew will be in a position of strength. Right now they’re all willing to roll the dice with what they got – just like Stache – but the market will loosen up once the season plays out a little.

There’s always the possibility of a deadline deal if Mark A thinks we’re on the brink of contention again. He authorized an extra $7 mil last year in a similar situation. You can always overperform in the first half and then add a starting pitcher later.

Oh, and if they’re out of it by the deadline, a team will definitely want Cameron with a decent year. Hoffman will likely draw interest from teams, too. They might get better value later in the season than right now, anyway. Any other trade bait on the roster Melvin would be willing to part with?

Here’s a question. If the Brewers “found” another $15-20 MM right now, who would they spend it on? Is there anyone worth that much that would also be willing to play in Milwaukee? Would they be cornered into signing another Suppan deal just to get someone here?