Friday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 23, 2009 9:10 AM CST
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PrintSome things to read while not making decisions.
So, last night, roguejim (and likely others) got their mellow harshed by the sudden and somewhat unexpected news that the Brewers see themselves as being done spending for the offseason.
Here are the things I do understand: This year's Opening Day payroll projects at right around $80 million, which is where the Brewers also stood on Opening Day last year. And I also know the Brewers aren't in a market to out-spend the Yankees and Red Sox. But, with that said, in the last two weeks the Brewers have gone out of their way to mention both of the following:
On ticket sales:
"Typically, we do not reach the one million mark until group tickets are made available, but this year the pace has been extraordinary and we reached the milestone through selling multi-game packages alone," said Brewers vice president Rick Schlesinger.
"Fan enthusiasm was at an all-time high at the end of last season, and that has carried over to give us tremendous momentum in early 2009."
And on sponsorships:
"We are very sensitive to what's going on, and we're very careful in what we're looking at," said Rick Schlesinger, the Brewers' executive vice president for business operations. "But I will tell you that ticket sales, suite sales, sponsorship -- we're seeing growth in all areas."
I added the emphasis to the final paragraph. Growth in all areas...except the payroll. And the payroll isn't growing despite tickets selling at a record pace, and double-digit sponsorship growth. If the Brewers go into Opening Day without having added a pitcher to the rotation and having spent their last $6 million on a 41-year-old closer, I'm not sure how this offseason can possibly rate any higher than a two or three on an out-of-ten scale. I've added a new poll to the sidebar to get your opinion on it.
The timing of the "we're done" announcement is also puzzling at best, because this weekend is the Brewers On Deck event. You can still stop by, though, to pick up 2009 Timber Rattler tickets and merchandise.
But, Prince Fielder is signed to a two-year deal worth $18 million. The JS reports Fielder ranks sixth all time in AB/HR before age 25. On the flip side, Intersportswire has a quote suggesting Fielder might have the biggest waist in baseball uniform history.
EDIT: The details on Fielder's contract are in, via Tom H: Fielder received a $1 million signing bonus, and will be paid $6.5 million in 2009 and $10.5 million in 2010.
Rumor has it Craig Counsell may also be coming back. That would solve the "who is the backup shortstop?" dilemma.
Speaking of shortstops, be sure to stop by and offer your insight into the community projections at shortstop. Also, I forgot to mention it yesterday, but there's still some time this morning to add your thoughts to the third base projections.
Not bad for a first year outfielder: Of the Brewers three everyday outfielders from 2008, Ryan Braun is the only one who rated above average in The Hardball Times' 2008 Outfield Arms Rankings.
Yesterday I noted that Ryan Braun and Corey Hart both made FakeTeams' Top 10 NL Fantasy Outfielders. They expanded on the rankings today, and Mike Cameron is #18.
On the hot stove:
Dodgers: Are reportedly close to a deal with Randy Wolf.
Mets: Signed Freddy Garcia to a deal that could be worth as much as $9 million with incentives.
Phillies: Could be getting ready to sign Moises Alou, who could be getting ready to turn to dust.
Rockies: Along with the Dodgers, D-backs, Rangers, Padres, Indians and Cardinals, they will watch Kris Benson throw on Saturday.
So Keith Law revealed his top 100 prospects yesterday, although 26-100 are behind the Insider curtain at ESPN.com. This link would have made the top half of the post, but no Brewers made the top 25.
If you've enjoyed our pieces explaining the arbitration process, Rule 5 draft and others, then you may also find some value in this Houston Chronicle piece explaining the waiver system. (h/t Shysterball)
There wasn't a Winter League Update today because no Brewers played in games yesterday. In the Dominican Winter League Championship Series, no baseball was played at all as Cibao forfeited Game 3 of their best of nine series to protest a suspension stemming from a player/umpire incident in Game 2. The player, Cibao second baseman Felix Martinez, took the field to start Game 3 as if nothing were wrong, and the entire team left the field when informed he had been suspended.
If you're a young pitcher with a low pitch count, perhaps you should learn to pitch to contact: Tangotiger crunched the numbers and discovered that the average ball in play from 1993 to 2008 only took 3.29 pitches, but the average K took 4.82. (The average walk? 5.60.)
Nationals outfielder Elijah Dukes has found yet another way to get into trouble: he owes over $40,000 in child support, and will go to jail if it isn't paid today. All of this is compounded by the fact that Dukes has reportedly spent his entire 2008 salary (nearly $400k), and won't get paid again until Opening Day.
The torch has been passed and baseball now has a new oldest living player. Bill Werber, a former teammate of Babe Ruth, died yesterday at 100 years old. The new oldest living player appears to be Tony Malinosky, who spent one season with the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1937.
Oh, and forgetting Brian Clutterbuck may be the first sign old age is setting in.
Drink up.
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sigh
i guess i’m getting pretty old… remember those crazy old days when the brewer payroll was near the bottom of the league? kids these days don’t realize how good they have it.
Bring Back The Old Logo!
I do remember.
And I also remember really bad teams playing in empty stadiums. New ownership spent more money, and the fans responded by filling the park. Now, the Brewer front office is tripping all over themselves trying to show how much more money they’re making, but not showing a willingness to invest it in the team, or at least invest what they have wisely.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 23, 2009 9:50 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
they lost money last year
Despite all the positive things that occured… the TV revenue is not increasing, and that is where the Yankees make all there money, they might not break even this year, as it is a lot for Mark A in this economy just to keep taking losses. He has to be smart too, and I don’t blame him for going out and spending $100 million, which some people seem to be suggesting he needs to do. according to Doug we are near $85 million figuring in Abry raises… Sheets is going to be another $10 million despite reports the market is cold, and then get another starter for depth or another bullpen arm for $4-$5million and get another solid backup infielder Durham type and we are near that $100MM.
Unrealistic… Brewers are still double there payroll from just a few years ago
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
Don't think they lost money last year:
Attanasio also said that the franchise turned a slight profit this past season, although he did not disclose specifics. Getting two playoff games at Miller Park last season helped the bottom line, he said.
Plus when you account for the things that KL mentioned in the Mug, its not hard to see why people aren’t jumping for joy that they don’t have a $40 million payroll anymore.
you are correct
Just found that link before checking back to see if I could find proof he lost money, but he didnt
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
also
In the “brewers are out of money” thread in fanposts, you’ll see the current payroll figures that I’ve done up. With Prince’s new salary and signing bonus, the CURRENT payroll (without arb raises to Weeks and Hart, plus 2 empty roster spots) sits at $73.66MM.
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 23, 2009 10:51 AM CST up reply actions
that is a good point
There has been an entertaining jabs back and forth on the jsonline blog, where people were arguing what was the right number….what we have reported, or what he says, because they dont match
Also, I dont know if this is included, but all the salaries of the coaches, GM, trainers, groundscrew… but he is paying it…
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
i didn’t go to the ballpark more often because the payroll was higher, i went because the team was better. that’s an important distinction.
the brewers are arguably above where they should be in terms of payroll given the financial landscape.
“tripping all over themselves” is quite a stretch when you have to resort to bolding the phrase “growth in all areas” to make the point, yes? especially when that phrase comes from a talentless PR hack like rick schlesinger.
how many millions of dollars do you think that double-digit sponsorship growth represents? 0.6 million? less?
“not showing a willingness to invest it in the team” is kind of silly given what the brewer payroll is currently at, right? in the last 5 seasons has another payroll increased by a larger percentage than the brewers?
i say go ahead and complain that the brewers have not invested wisely, but a little perspective would make the conversation more interesting.
Surely I’m not the only one who is happy to see the brewers payroll capped at 85 million dollars, right? Who thinks it should be over $100 million? Anyone?
Bring Back The Old Logo!
Exactly
Plus Braun is only making $750,000 this year, Prince is making $6.5 this year, Hardy around $4MM, Yovanni our stud #1 $400,000 or so? Lucky to have this low a payroll, if these guys were paid what they were worth, forget about it.
Of our best players, they are only making a combined $12 million dollars, when Braun’s salary escalates, to put a great team around him will be difficult unless we continue to turn prospect into successful players.
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
nope
But I’d sure as hell like that $6MM back for Hoffman and the $10MM back for Cameron.
The fact that everyone knows that payroll likely won’t exceed $85MM on opening day aggravates the piss out of…well, a lot of folks. At this point, who’s going to get the ball to the six million dollar man in the 9th in August?
Also…I’d have been perfectly fine with an across the board ticket price hike. I’m the guy paying for them. I’m willing to pay more if ownership is willing to pay more.
And…Mark…how about you don’t pocket the revenue sharing and instead use it towards 2010 payroll. Please?
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 23, 2009 10:55 AM CST up reply actions
I don't understand why people think...
… that the revenue sharing doesn’t factor into the “slight profit” they made last year. I suspect that the check the Brewers got from the luxury tax pool is the only reason why they turned that profit, or even came close to breaking even, and I’m convinced it’s the only way they can maintain a payroll at 85 million. The assumption from some quarters always appears to be that the owners keep that cash and don’t count it when they talk about their profit/loss. Can you source your belief that Attanasio simply kept the cash the Brewers got from the luxury tax pool? Or are you just guessing?
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 23, 2009 12:37 PM CST up reply actions
Milwaukee Brewers, 2008:
That’s earnings before income taxes.
I guess if your team is worth $331MM, $19.2MM might be considered slight.
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 23, 2009 1:04 PM CST up reply actions
Your link is busted.
But that number is interesting.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
I felt I made the point that fans come out to see a better team. Spending money is a key point towards getting there, though.
They’ve issued two press releases in two weeks to highlight and tout the revenue they’re generating. I’m sorry if “tripping all over themselves” was too strong of a phrase. Certainly, they’re trying very hard to highlight it, though.
I don’t expect the team to invest $100 million or make an effort to go toe-to-toe with the Yankees. I said that in the post. BUT, when common opinion seems to be that they’re one pitcher away from being really good, I’d rather they didn’t slam on the brakes.
My argument, in simple form, is that they can’t have it both ways. If they’re going to spend all the time and effort they’ve spent to tell us how much more money they’re making, then a status-quo payroll shouldn’t be acceptable, when a few million more would greatly improve their playoff chances.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 23, 2009 11:30 AM CST up reply actions
I don’t think the brewers are “trying very hard to highlight” the revenue they are generating. what purpose does that serve? no, the brewers are engaging in simple corporate public relations. the purpose of these press releases is not to gloat, as you suggest, but to try and get stories placed, stories like the two you linked. These stories remind people to purchase season tickets, and companies to forge partnerships respectively. You can’t get news outlets to run advertisements for free, but you can dupe them into writing stories that act also as advertisements. PR 101.
If you agree with me that they are not gloating about revenue, can they then be allowed to set a salary cap? if not 85 or 100, what should it be?
Also, i disagree that the payroll is “status-quo”, and i disagree that a few million more dollars would greatly improve their playoff chances.
Bring Back The Old Logo!
I don't recall ever saying they were gloating...
I did use the word “touting,” which looks similar. And regardless of the reason, they’re out in the media distributing the information that they’re making more money than they did last year.
I don’t think they sat down in the board room and came up with a plan to publicly advertise making more money and spending the same amount. They just happen to have made press with both announcements. I’ve worked in PR, so I understand the concept of how press releases work.
I’d project the current Brewers at 82-84 wins. At that level, they’d be relatively unlikely, maybe at best a 10-20% shot, at the playoffs. Let’s say they can add Ben Sheets for $7-8 million each for two seasons, and he adds 3 wins to the expectation. That puts them at 85-87 wins, and perhaps a 40-50% chance at postseason play.
Furthermore, if this year’s team underachieves or gets riddled with injuries, they could be 10 games out in August, and if that’s the case their ticket revenue will dwindle, as fans will not buy walk-up tickets. If this year’s team+Ben Sheets underachieves, they still might only be five games out on September 1, and being in contention will boost ticket sales. So the money isn’t just thrown away, it’s invested.
It’s a matter of simple economics, really: Teams should continue to spend money until there’s not a reasonable hope of return. Signing a pitcher would make this team significantly better, and create a reasonable return.
What do you expect the Brewers to do with/without Sheets? Why don’t you think he’s a solid investment?
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
I think you're overestimating the potential boost in ticket sales...
or, rather, the equivalent late-season drop. The Brewers are among the teams with the lowest average ticket price, and while I forget what the most recent numbers are, a couple of years ago it was $16.something. And I suspect it’s even less than that for walk-ups. There’s absolutely no way that signing Sheets for $10 million or whatever to keep the team in “contention” for six more weeks (IF that’s the major reason for signing him) will actually be a net positive. Maybe if you assume and factor in significant spillover effects for next season’s ticket sales, but even on that I’d be doubtful.
During the Sabathia free agent period
In the comments of a post we tried to estimate what 1 butt-in-seat is worth to the Brewers, and I guessed, when you factor in a ticket, parking, food, and the occasional stop in the souvenir shops, one extra ticket sold is worth somewhere between $40-$50 to the team. So, the difference between 25,000 and 26,000 at one game in April is only $40,000-$50,000, but the difference between 15,000 in the stands watching a meaningless game and 40,000 in the stands watching 15 September home games is worth somewhere between $15 and $18.75 million.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
And based on that EBIT comparison
its possible the whole shebang was made from the playoff appearance.
Thus, getting to play meaningful baseball in September is economically beneficial for a team.
Also, spending a little more so that you can get there is a good thing. Payroll was pushed to $90MM with the mid-season acquisitions of Sabathia and Durham. And the team still had a $19.2MM EBIT. So…if the season starts at $90MM, is putshed to $100MM, and the team makes the playoffs, given the rate of current ticket sales, wouldn’t one assume either a similar EBIT or perhaps even an increase?
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 24, 2009 10:42 AM CST up reply actions
And hey, it's the NL.
I’m not sure any team other than the Padres and maybe the Pirates will be 10+ games out of the wild card in August…
I guess I'm getting old too...
I remember when Tony Malinosky was a much-hyped 5-tool prospect.
Don't try to do too much with it. Just take the ball the other way.
by shooty babitt on Jan 23, 2009 10:58 AM CST up reply actions
Isn't he the equipment guy who does Usinger's commercial with Ueck?
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
I'm almost done talking about it
though, apparently, not quite yet. :)
I guess it’s somewhat easy to compare this team to last year’s given the similar payrolls. We gain one good pitcher (Gallardo) while losing two (CC and Sheets). Otherwise, we swapped out our bullpen parts with new bullpen parts. I suppose, though, that if McClung can pitch like Sheets did last year, we might be OK. :)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Edited
BTW – to add the details on Fielder’s contract.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
Out Of Money Post
Gezzz.. that brought home just about how bad our rotation is. I’m starting to turn my irrational hatred eye at DM. The stasch better be working on something brilliant, otherwise I may have to register firedougmelvin.com and hand the keys to Marty.
Keith Law
Thanks to a friend with Insider access, his rankings on Brewer players:
45 – Escobar
49- Jeffress
71- Salome
86 – Gamel
Can I copy and paste the write ups or is that frowned upon?
I think last year they were fine when I posted insider things
I at one point offered to give my member name and password, and that was frowned upon…
But at some point last year, I think the writeups had to be paraphrased… or maybe I am confusing that with Brewerfan.net
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
I would rather you didn't.
I’m somewhat curious to see them, but I’d rather not be partially responsible for stealing it.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 23, 2009 11:25 AM CST up reply actions
It seems like it's becoming increasingly popular to believe that Gamel's 2008 was a mirage.
Doesn’t it?
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 23, 2009 12:39 PM CST up reply actions
If C.C.'s back
I think that eliminates any possibility of Escobar making the team out of spring training barring a trade of one of the other infielders.
Was there much chance of that anyway?
I can’t imagine the team having him skip AAA just so he can sit on the end of the bench and play SS one day a week.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 23, 2009 12:16 PM CST up reply actions
Seconded
Barring major injury to Hardy, no way Escobar makes the major league roster before call-ups.
Without signing Counsel is Bill Hall the back up at short?
Not saying there was much of a chance at all
Just saying there probably was a really small chance for whatever reason but C.C. eliminates that as well.
by MadJimiBrewha on Jan 23, 2009 6:26 PM CST up reply actions
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