Brew Crew Ball: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: World Soccer Digest for Soccer Fans!

First pitch fastballs to Brewers hitters

Over at THT I wrote an article on first pitch fastballs and I wanted to share all the info on the Brewers hitters here.  If any of the variables aren't clear you can check that article for all the details.

 

 

First Last Team AB FB FB% SD Strike% SD Swing% SD SwingStrike% SD SwingBall% SD AVE SD SLG SD
Russell Branyan Brewers 136.0 85.0 62.5 -0.7 42.4 -1.3 50.6 1.2 97.2 2.2 16.3 -0.2 0.667 3.2 1.000 2.3
Ryan Braun Brewers 617.0 386.0 62.6 -0.7 48.2 -0.2 37.0 -0.1 58.6 0.0 17.0 -0.1 0.326 0.0 0.609 0.4
Mike Cameron Brewers 476.0 317.0 66.6 -0.1 51.4 0.4 31.2 -0.6 49.7 -0.5 11.7 -0.7 0.433 1.0 1.033 2.4
Craig Counsell Brewers 286.0 211.0 73.8 1.0 51.2 0.4 26.5 -1.0 39.8 -1.1 12.6 -0.6 0.211 -1.1 0.316 -0.9
Ray Durham Brewers 400.0 286.0 71.5 0.6 42.7 -1.3 33.2 -0.4 52.5 -0.4 18.9 0.2 0.345 0.2 0.690 0.8
Prince Fielder Brewers 629.0 387.0 61.5 -0.8 35.4 -2.7 40.8 0.3 83.2 1.4 17.6 0.0 0.298 -0.3 0.579 0.3
Bill Hall Brewers 430.0 256.0 59.5 -1.1 52.3 0.6 36.7 -0.1 52.2 -0.4 19.7 0.2 0.393 0.6 0.571 0.2
J.J. Hardy Brewers 589.0 403.0 68.4 0.2 50.4 0.2 14.6 -2.1 23.6 -2.0 5.5 -1.4 0.292 -0.3 0.500 -0.1
Corey Hart Brewers 616.0 334.0 54.2 -1.9 56.6 1.4 57.2 1.8 77.8 1.1 30.3 1.5 0.338 0.1 0.554 0.2
Gabe Kapler Brewers 237.0 161.0 67.9 0.1 46.6 -0.5 23.6 -1.3 38.7 -1.2 10.5 -0.9 0.182 -1.4 0.182 -1.6
Jason Kendall Brewers 543.0 431.0 79.4 1.8 58.2 1.8 31.1 -0.6 43.8 -0.9 13.3 -0.5 0.283 -0.4 0.396 -0.6
Mike Lamb Brewers 249.0 176.0 70.7 0.5 46.6 -0.5 47.7 0.9 72.0 0.8 26.6 1.1 0.294 -0.3 0.412 -0.5
Rickie Weeks Brewers 518.0 298.0 57.5 -1.4 51.3 0.4 23.5 -1.3 39.2 -1.1 6.9 -1.3 0.087 -2.3 0.217 -1.4

Ok so a few words on each hitter. 

Branyan saw less and less fastballs as the season went on but the ones he got he hammered.  Basically every fastball in the zone he swung at and he wasn't horrible swinging at pitches outside the zone.  It will be interesting to see how well he can keep this up next year with the M's.

Braun has been chided for not working the count but he really wan't flailing at too many fastballs out of the zone.  In fact he even didn't swing all that much on fastballs in the zone.  Pitchers were somewhat careful not throwing too many first pitch fastballs to Braun but when they did they threw more in the zone that I would have expected knowing his swinging ways.

For a guy who strikes out as much as Cameron does he sure doesn't swing too much at first pitch fastballs.  For someone with Cameron's power he really isn't swinging much early.  Pitchers appear to be aware of this throwing him almost league average fastballs and more for strikes than league average.

Counsell is exactly what you would expect for a middle infielder who lives by taking some walks.  He doesn't swing often on first pitch fastballs and pitchers know this and are happy to throw him fastballs to start the at bat.

Durham too saw a lot of first pitch fastballs but far less than league average strike percentage.  It appears that pitchers were expecting him to swing a lot at the balls but he was around league average.  If that continues Durham will continue to get into decent hitting counts and that might prolong his career.

A lot of the talk about Fielder mid season was about how pitchers were working him differently compared to his 50 homer season the year before.  One of the big differences was first pitch fastballs.  Fielder saw less first pitch fastballs and way less fastballs for a strike than league average.  Fielder did respond being at league average at not swinging at balls and swinging more than league average at the strikes.  If Fielder can lay off some more of those first pitches out of the zone he is going to be even more dangerous.

Bill Hall is a very well known fastball hitter and got many few first pitch fastballs than league average.  When pitchers did throw the fastball they were more likely to throw it in the zone and when they did do that Hall responded by hitting the ball well.  Depending how much playing time Hall gets next year it will be interesting to see if he can lay off some of those first pitches out of the zone and keep hammering the ones in the zone.

J.J. Hardy produced some of the most shocking results of any player I looked at.  Hardy who I certainly think of as a fastball hitter laid off first pitch fastballs especially the ones in the strike zone.  Pitchers didn't seem to take advantage of this however throwing him almost exactly the league average number of first pitch fastballs.  For a hitter that doesn't walk as much as Hardy I was surprised at how few times he would swing.  He must want to see a few pitches and then pick one out he likes.

Hart was one of the most disappointing players I looked at.  For a guy who spent a lot of time hitting behind Fielder and Braun he was way too willing to swing especially at pitches outside the zone.  Swinging at 30% of fastballs outside the zone just isn't going to work.  He needs to stop swinging at those and maybe he will get a few more hittable ones.  I know Hart simply isn't going to ever walk enough but he has to stop swinging at balls out of the zone.

Kapler was one of the surprise stories for the Brewers last year and he really controlled the zone on the first pitch.  While not having much success when he did swing just not swinging at balls is a huge step in the right direction.  It should be interesting to see if he sees more fastballs with the Rays with him swinging so infrequently.

Kendall is the classic light hitting catcher seeing a huge number of first pitch fastballs and many of those for strikes.  Kendall still swung less often than average and when he did make contact he didn't really do much with it not surprisingly.  At least he drives the opposing pitcher's pitch count up.

I don't really have much to say about Lamb.  He is on the list because he ended the year as a Brewer.  He too swung way too much at fastballs out of the zone and I think his results speak for himself.

Rickie Weeks had just a dreadful season and it all started with the first pitch.  Weeks saw very few fastballs and those that he did see he couldn't handle.  The best thing I can say is he wasn't expanding the zone on the first pitch and pitchers threw him very few fastballs in the zone.  That said, he needs to do much much better on hitting the fastballs he swings at.  Rickie might not ever hit too breaking balls too much but if he can't hit the fastball he isn't ever going to make it.

 

0 recs  |  Comment 5 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

appreciate the analysis

It seemed like near the end of the year, pitchers figured out that Corey Hart is Sorrano from Major League, throwing him a breaking pitch and he can’t hit it… only 54% FB throw and swung at a lot out of the zone

The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.

by Kyguy922 on Jan 27, 2009 3:08 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yep

31.7% of pitches outside of the strikezone, Hick Trap was swinging at.

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 27, 2009 10:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hardy, Kendall, and Weeks

They were at or near the top of the league at not swinging at the first pitch, regardless of pitch type.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jan 27, 2009 4:24 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Excellent work Josh

I was pretty surprised to see Hardy in all of the patience leaderboards in the THT article. I always remember announcers talking about how Hardy loves fastballs and feasts on fastballs, whatever.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Jan 27, 2009 9:45 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Fantastic work

This is fantastic work. I love it when someone can go through and definitively quantify some baseball folklore like being a “first pitch fastball hitter.”

It’s amazing how few first pitch fastballs Fielder sees. Is this more of a matter of fear of his ability to hit fastballs or his inability to hitting breaking balls? I haven’t the faintest clue.

by ecocd on Jan 28, 2009 4:34 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Brew Crew Ball is dedicated to providing a friendly atmosphere for intelligent Brewer conversation. Click here to view our Posting Guide and Community Guidelines.
Start posting about the Brewers »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Rumorville: John Halama?
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Rumorville: Todd Wellemeyer?
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Rumorville: Derek Lowe/Corey Hart
Nohuddleblueew9_small
Question regarding revenue sharing
Small
All in on Low Risk/High Reward Guys
Box_small
Question: Rule 5 Draft Protection
Newavatar_small
Speculationville: Edwin Jackson/Curtis Granderson
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Rumorville: Kelly Shoppach
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Rumorville: John Lackey
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Braden Looper Watch (update 1)

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Featured Poll

Poll
Who won the J.J. Hardy/Carlos Gomez trade?
The Brewers
107 votes
The Twins
285 votes
It's a tie.
142 votes

534 votes | Poll has closed

79 - 82

11

Won 3

1

NL Central Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
St. Louis 91 71 .561 0 Lost 6
Chicago 83 78 .515 7.5 Lost 1
Milwaukee 80 82 .493 11 Won 3
Cincinnati 78 84 .481 13 Won 2
Houston 74 88 .456 17 Lost 3
Pittsburgh 62 99 .385 28.5 Lost 2

(updated 11.21.2009 at 4:31 PM CST)

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Infielder Adam Heether...returned home from the Venezuelan Winter League...
Anyone ever notice this? -- Did they make a corrected card? I am pretty sure there is a conspiracy behind this.
Authentic Jersey. I was wondering if it would be worth it to get a Fielder...
Brewers discussed Corey Hart for Derek Lowe
Mystery three-way trade team?
Keith Law's take on the Brewer's plans (he's not a fan)
Got this in the mail today from my Season Ticket Account Exec.

"Tim -
I wanted to thank you for renewing again this year.  Your continued support is very important & much appreciated.  Keep in touch and let me know if you need anything else.

Go Brewers!
Chris

P.S. If you know anybody else interested in a ticket plan, please let me know."
Washburn's Interested in the Brewers.
Milwaukees First All-Black Baseball Team
Autographs through the Mail: Jonathan Lucroy

Sent:11/5/09

Received:11/16/09

+ New FanShot All FanShots >


Moderators

U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small roguejim

Mordecai_brown_small Jeff Sackmann

Newavatar_small KLSnow

Box_small TheJay

Communist_party_small Jordan M

Contributors

Dsci0355_small kirbir

Picture_069_small tristarscoop

Dsc01174_small BrewHaHeather

Rubie_edited-1_small Rubie Q

Hikaru_50_small morineko

X1pxoywqu4sjf73f7drxq2lmqys7mzsyx7pa9necepiffk_ewcuwmuazb-o17ukmbriclcdkn4lk-4xposaawiq4j8hzdsccpjwatqpz2o2p-i0nnqjlyt7pmytaycsaknszvaktpshtcu9sjle1qchlw_1__small NoahJ

Hulk_buddy-icon_small Fatter than Joey