The Mustache or Z?
Who would you rather have GMing the Brewers? I ask this because The Z has pulled off yet another smart move for the Mariners, trading Aaron Heilman to the Cubs for Ronny Cedeno and Garrett Olson. As if his history scouting with the Brewers isn't enough, what he's done this offseason just makes it that much more likely he'll be a damn good GM.
This isn't to say Melvin sucks or needs to go.
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28 comments
Comments
2:1 so far… for Z. I’m not shocked, given the general pessimism towards the offseason thus far.
by HRF on Jan 28, 2009 4:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
can you really blame us though?
I just sit back and root for the taser
by Hyatt on Jan 28, 2009 4:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not at all. Z’s a proven talent evaluator.
I voted for Z.
by HRF on Jan 28, 2009 5:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Qualifying my vote
I would have voted for DM if you asked back in October. We’re really looking back here. I wouldn’t take many guys over Melvin— only a couple, really— but based on what Jack Z has done so far, I think he’s a rare, rare mix of talent evaluation and willingness to change and understand new methods of player evaluation.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
by Jordan M on Jan 28, 2009 5:50 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Out of curiousity, what in the offseason has changed your mind? Z being that good or Melvin faltering?
by HRF on Jan 28, 2009 6:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Z being that good
I read four SBnation blogs regularly— here obviosly, Beyond the Boxscore, Draysbay, and Lookout Landing. It’s incredible to watch how much Z values defense, and the fact that he set up a sabermetric research department (Dept. of Baesball Research) with Blengino is just incredible to me. This is one of those things that’s tough to judge because we don’t really know the people or their philosophies. If I knew Z was going to exploit the market like he has so far, I would have taken him hands down.
Similarly, I just can’t pass judgement on Melvin until we’re done with the offseason or we know everything that happened. What do you really want DM to do? I’d love him to sign Sheets, sure— but what if Ben told DM that he wasn’t coming back under any circumstances (I do not endorse this opinion, personally)? I also hate it when people take quotes as gospel— a few weeks ago he didn’t want Hoffman, either. You have to let this stuff play out. Do you think he’s going to issue a release in November, saying “Here’s the plan. I want to sign these three guys. If I can’t, we’ll try to sign these ones.” He’s going to intentionally deceive through the media.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
by Jordan M on Jan 28, 2009 6:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes.
I realize I’m probably being harder on Doug than he deserves. The Hoffman signing when that money could have just as easily been used for SP depth (though admittedly, that probably would have required at least a two year commitment and thus more cash in the end) is really chapping my ass.
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 28, 2009 6:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Zd
Z has been absolutely fantastic, but I don’t think you can really start comparing him to other GMs before he’s even been a GM for, what, three months? However, he hasn’t done a single thing wrong in those three months. As a matter of fact, he’s gone above and beyond doing the right things by implementing great ideas and surrounding himself with great people. So far he’s aced the rebuilding process. It’ll be interesting to see if he can finish the job and build a winner.
by tcyoung on Jan 28, 2009 9:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
In fairness to Doug
I agree that Jack has done everything right so far. I also agree that Melvin has had a lackluster offseason, at best.
But… from the perspective of a “smart talent evaluator” type of GM, jobs don’t come much easier than Seattle right now, and jobs don’t come much harder than Milwaukee right now. Jack has a bigger payroll and lower expectations. Doug has a payroll constrained by players hitting arb years and higher expectations than ever.
If there is a fair comparison, it’s 2008-09 Jack to …oh, let’s say 03-04 Doug. Doug looked (and was) smart trading Sexson and picking up various bargain bin players… neither of which are things that would make the Brewers better, expect for maybe a bargain bin pickup for the bullpen.
You could make the argument that Doug is better at rebuilding than at running a perennial contender, and I don’t think we have the basis yet to disagree with that (or prove it, for that matter). But nothing Jack is doing makes the case that he would do any better faced with the dilemma that is the 08-09 Brewers offseason.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jan 29, 2009 12:39 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Right
That’s what I was thinking - The Brewers and Mariners are in totally different places right now, so it’s not really a fair comparison.
Part of the “problem,” such as it is, is that we don’t have anyone breaking down the door to make the major-league club. Gamel and Escobar are the closest, of course, though only if you’re fine in skipping AAA for those two. It would be easier to trade Fielder if we had Gamel OPS’ing .950 in AAA. The same with Lorenzo Cain: it’s hard to trade Cameron, who gives you great offense for a generally weak position, when your in-house option is lacking. (Of course, our in-house option could have been Melky Cabrera.)
In a related note, I was looking over the Brewers salary. We have only 5 players who make as much as $5 million on our roster right now. Of those making $5+ million, 3 of them are “good” (Cameron, Hoffman, Fielder), and 2 of them, not so much (Hall, Suppan). Barring a trade, Hall and Suppan can be expunged from our roster after 2010, but only if we pay them a combined $2.5 million to not play for us…which, upon thinking about it, might be a bargain.
Jason Kendall is our 6th highest paid player.
We have Ryan Braun for another 7 years. Seven!
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Jan 29, 2009 7:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Payroll
And Braun will only be making 3/4 of a Mil. this year. what a steal. Would he have hit arbitration this year without the 8 year deal?
by tcyoung on Jan 29, 2009 9:52 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think Braun would have reached arbitration until after this season or next season, but I’m a bit loose about the arbitration process myself. I think it’s around your first three years of playing time.
by Lavender on Jan 29, 2009 10:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Not after 2008, but he might've after 2009
If the number of other guys with close to but just under 3 years of major league service time is friendly to him (the actual, confusing definition here). If he “qualifies” for arbitration following 2009, his deal with the Brewers increases by $6 million over the next four years.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Jan 29, 2009 3:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
I hope that money is fair to him. He deserves the extra cash.
by tcyoung on Jan 30, 2009 7:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Someone should really try and figure out where he’ll fall among the class of 2 to 3 service years players to see how likely it is that those bonuses will kick in.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Jan 30, 2009 3:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
didn't we (you?) figure, when he broke in
that he was comfortably below the amount of first-year service time that resulted in super two status in previous years? I realize that first-year service time isn’t the end of the story, but I thought this was a more or less settled issue.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jan 30, 2009 4:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He probably is
He’ll finish next year with 2.129 years of service. It’s pretty unlikely the cutoff would be that low, but it’d be nice to know for sure.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on Jan 30, 2009 4:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously you guys, screw what's fair and what isn't.
This is fun.
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 29, 2009 5:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Jeff,
I’m always impressed by the clarity with which you put things into context. Thanks.
At the same time, “bargains” can be had that improve contenders or “on the cusp” clubs. Maybe this is a cliché example, but look at the way Theo Epstein & Co. filled out the 2004 Red Sox roster with guys like Dave Roberts, Minky, etc.
But, on a more curious note, what do you think potential contenders need to do to get over the hump with restricted payroll? Is there anything, or do we need to accept our fate?
"Nothing is working right now with a lot of the guys. We're trying to see pitches and see what we can do. ... I'm not going to sit there and walk, though. I'll eventually find it, and hopefully we'll still be in it." -Corey Hart
by baumann on Feb 2, 2009 11:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
thanks
No question that contending teams can make moves around the edges — and I would say Melvin did a decent job of that last year picking up high-upside guys like Kapler and Branyan.
I’ve been saying this off and on for a couple of years now, but I think the biggest problem with the Brewers as they are currently constructed is that we’ve got a lot of “average” or “above average” players — but the only superstar is Braun, and maybe Gallardo will come through at that level. And now that arb years are arriving, we’re paying for that average-level production. Reliable little birds tell me that the FO has made some effort to move Prince, and that’s the sort of thing that needs to happen — get the potential for superstar-level production at a few places, and find cheap solutions to give you average-or-close production at as many other places as possible.
For instance — I don’t have a problem with resigning Cameron, but…this year, we could probably come close to his production for less than $10MM. And while this was less clear two years ago, obviously we could be doing better than Suppan for a lot less money. The Mets are not usually a good role model, but consider that their 5th starter spot is now a competition between Freddy Garcia (rehabber with high upside), Tim Redding (solid pitcher for $2MM+), and Jon Niese (pre-arb internal solution).
I increasingly suspect that good teams with moderate payrolls should decide to punt on one offensive position — 1B, 3B, LF, and RF. We spent $6MM or whatever on Hall last year, only to get better production out of Branyan. This year, a lot of people would’ve been just as happy with Kapler/quad-A platoon mate as with Hart. You can get decent quad-A options there, but you can’t cheaply fill holes elsewhere, which is why we had to spend for Kendall and spend for Cameron.
Now I’m rambling … but the short answer is: Don’t go for average everywhere. Get as much as you possibly can out of some positions (especially if they are up the middle) and be creative with the rest. Incidentally, this gives somebody like Melvin a chance to use his bargain-hunting skills even if he’s building on a 90-win team.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 3, 2009 3:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
“I’ve been saying this off and on for a couple of years now, but I think the biggest problem with the Brewers as they are currently constructed is that we’ve got a lot of "average" or "above average" players — but the only superstar is Braun, and maybe Gallardo will come through at that level. And now that arb years are arriving, we’re paying for that average-level production. Reliable little birds tell me that the FO has made some effort to move Prince, and that’s the sort of thing that needs to happen — get the potential for superstar-level production at a few places, and find cheap solutions to give you average-or-close production at as many other places as possible.”
Bingo. Cameron’s a good example, but I think the best examples over the next few years will be Corey Hart and Rickie Weeks.
While I agree with your assertion, I’m curious if Prince would be regarded as a “superstar” is his 2008 offensive numbers would have approached his 2007. It’s hard to blame the FO for not moving him when he’s: obviously gaining weight, demonstrating less opposite field power in 2008 than in 2007, and when Adam Dunn is sitting out there on the FA market and is likely to sign for a fraction of what he’d hoped for.
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Feb 3, 2009 5:25 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
that's a good question
if he were a legitimate 400 OBP / 600 SLG guy every year, he’s a superstar. But I was thinking more in line with 08 and projections going forward — still damn good, but down in the ‘above average’ range when you consider fielding. So yeah, Dunn’s a good comp.
And yep, Hart and Weeks are the perfect examples…they are still cheap for what they provide, but they’ll create a payroll crunch starting next year.
When this glut of averageness becomes obvious is when you try to upgrade the team at the deadline — this is when I was harping on these points last season. Aside from SP, who could the Brewers have acquired that would’ve made a huge difference? Every position except for LF and maybe SS left something to be desired, but who do you bring in at 2B to represent a big increase on Weeks?
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 3, 2009 5:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
who do you bring in at 2B to represent a big increase on Weeks?
Depends on who you ask, unfortunately… some people, including our beat writer, were convinced that Ray Durham was this. I just googled to see if I could find a specific quote, and I noticed a late-season mailbag. Someone asked if the Brewers would offer Weeks arbitration or release him. Tom wasn’t sure and said the Brewers would have to evaluate the decision.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
by Jordan M on Feb 3, 2009 6:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
to clarify
I agree with the point entirely, I just thought that was funny.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
by Jordan M on Feb 3, 2009 6:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, that is weird.
that’s what you call a difference of opinion — Tom H wanted to bench Weeks in favor of Durham … I wondered if Steve Hammond was too much to give up for Durham.
Side note: Steve Hammond takes up more space in the overall minor league splits database than any other player. That’s what pitching for upper-level NL affiliates (so he has batting stats), plus switching teams a lot mid-season, does for you.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Feb 3, 2009 7:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not shocked Hardicourt said that. I mean, he had Fielder ahead of Pujols in MVP voting.
by HRF on Feb 4, 2009 2:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs


























