Thursday's Frosty Mug

by KLSnow on Jan 29, 2009 8:02 AM CST Comment 17 comments

Some things to read while writing in the snow.

Today may be the slowest news day of the offseason, but that's ok because you may need the time to learn to play Rock Paper Scissors Lizard Spock.

So the Brewers reportedly asked Ben Sheets to accept an incentive laden contract similar to those given to John Smoltz and Brad Penny, and the two sides haven't spoken since he said no. Meanwhile, Sheets' age and injury history make him the perfect target for Mets GM Omar Minaya.

FakeTeams lists Sheets 16th among fantasy NL starting pitchers, which is interesting because they don't even know if he'll sign with an NL team. Yovani Gallardo makes the honorable mention on that list.

UmpBump is about as disappointed with this Brewer offseason as most of the rest of us are, grading it a D.

Meanwhile, despite hitting just .224/.289/.302 in 128 plate appearances, scouts are still raving about Alcides Escobar's defense in Venezuela. Escobar also led all shortstop prospects in range factor in 2008.

On the hot stove:

Cubs: Traded Garrett Olson and Ronny Cedeno to the Mariners for Aaron Heilman. They're also reportedly interested in Braden Looper and Randy Wolf if they can't trade for Jake Peavy.
Orioles: Are also interested in Braden Looper.
Twins: Have ended negotiations with Eric Gagne.

Want some insight into the things you learn while spending decades evaluating minor leaguers? John Sickels has you covered over at Minor League Ball.

Oh, and artist renderings of the new Marlins ballpark aren't as bad as some are making them out to be...but it does still look like a spaceship when the roof is closed. (h/t Rob Neyer)

Drink up.

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It seems all it takes to land Sheets right now is a two year deal. Pull the Kendall contract out of the files, some white-out and make it happen! Or a one year deal with a one year player option. If Benny is as healthy as he thinks he is, then next year he can go into FA again and get the deal he’s looking for. If not, he can suck another 10-12 million out of the club. It’s not like Melvin hasn’t wasted $10 mil on worse bets.

by Getting Yosted on Jan 29, 2009 8:55 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I still don't understand the comparison of contracts

Just because you’ve spent more money on Suppan and Gagne in the past, doesn’t make a contract OK.

How is it alright to justify a bad contract by saying, “Hey look, we’ve done bad contracts before.”

Now, I agree with everything else Getting Yosted said. I would love to sign Sheets to that deal. I’ve just seen that type of justification by comparison a bunch of times here on the good BCB, and I don’t understand it.

by tcyoung on Jan 29, 2009 9:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It's not about good/bad

It’s about the risk assumed at the start of the contract. The odds of Gagne being worth his $10 mil weren’t great, you had to ignore his recent performance and hope that he was being held back by injuries in those years. Even then, for a reliever to be worth $10 million he had to almost recover to his dominant LA days. The odds of that happening weren’t great, so the risk assumed at the beginning of the contract was quite large.

With Sheets, you can pencil him in for 120 innings as your #1 starting pitcher and at least another 20-30 innings of #4 production as he battles injury. But best case scenario is everything works great and he pitches 200+ innings as a #1. Sheets is incredibly frustrating, but a win in April counts the same towards making the playoffs as a win in September so even if he only pitches great thru July he still has incredible value. So long as the injury to Sheets is healed and he can start the season healthy with no ill-effects, the risk associated with a two year deal for Sheets at $10-12 mil per is much lower than the risk they took on the Cameron, Kendall, Suppan and Gagne deals. Especially when the team needs another starter and deals for replacement level organization depth on the FA market are going for $4-5 mil, making the marginal cost to pick up #1 starter with an injury history $5-6 mil per year.

by Getting Yosted on Jan 29, 2009 10:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Writing in the snow

Why didn’t the writer jump from letter to letter, instead of attaching them from walking?

Harumph.

/snow writing purist

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jan 29, 2009 10:50 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Because trudging through all that snow might just awake that infamous sleeping dog in St. Louis, be it only six months late.

by Lavender on Jan 29, 2009 1:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Sheets not a good teammate?

One of the posters on JSOnline Brewers blogs said this…

“Sheets was offended by his teammates in 07”

Can anyone explain that?

by TimQMills on Jan 29, 2009 10:52 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Maybe they didn't let him win in Fantasy Football

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jan 29, 2009 10:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Because it’s another JSOline blogger who is an utter pillock.

by Lavender on Jan 29, 2009 1:21 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Sheets is great, but does the Crew have the money?

I’d think a Sheets signing would increase everyone’s grade on the Brewers offseason dramatically, but do they have the cash for a multi-year deal? They’re strapped right now and all of their coveted position players and young starting pitchers will only be making more money next year. A 2-year deal with Sheets would, for all intents and purposes, lock the roster in place for the next two seasons. They wouldn’t even be able to afford mid-season acquisitions. I doubt the organization would be willing to give up that kind of flexibility.

If the Brewers season tanks due to an unfortunate series of injuries, Sheets and Cameron would be worth a very good prospect or two at the trade deadline, though. That would certainly open payroll for next year.

by ecocd on Jan 29, 2009 11:37 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Hmmmmmm

You know, next year we’ll have Cameron’s salary off the books. Plus, I can’t see us paying $4+ million for a catcher, and Gamel and Escobar will likely be on the team. As usual, some of those savings will be eaten by salary jumps and arbitration. Just the same, I could see a somewhat backloaded two-year deal for Sheets, especially if Moustache already has it in the back of his mind that Fielder’s 2-year deal was a preamble to a trade after the season.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jan 29, 2009 12:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure...

I think CV is arb eligible for the first time next season, which means he’ll probably get a $3MM raise. I think Mike Rivera is 1st time eligible as well, getting probably a $1.5MM raise. Coffey, McClung, Weeks, Hart, Hardy, Bush are all arb eligible. Estimating, that’s raises of: 250k, 1MM, 1.5MM, 1.5MM, 1.5MM, 1.5MM next season. So with CV’s, you’ve got a total (estimation) of $11.75MM in raises for arb.

Fielder’s contract goes up by $4MM, Hall by $1.6, Riske $250k, Braun $255k. Suppan’s is again $12.5MM. That’s a total of $6.105MM in contract raises.

So, approximately $17.85MM in raises for 2010.

I doubt that Lamb ($400k), Counsell ($1MM), Cameron ($10MM), Kendall ($4.6MM), Julio ($950k+), Hoffman ($6MM) will be back. That’s a total of almost $23MM coming off the books. Which leaves us at about -$5MM vs. 2009 payroll (which will probably be about $81.5MM with Weeks and Hart arb raises). If the Brewers could do a 2/20 contract like this:

2009: $7MM guaranteed, $5MM in possible bonuses based on starts, IP, AS, MVP, CY etc.
2010: $12MM guaranteed, $3MM in bonuses as above
2011(option): $14MM guaranteed; $1MM in bonuses as above, buyout $4MM by team $2MM by player; vests if 64 starts 09/10 combined or 410IP.

That would be $88.5MM (not including any bonuses and incentives for anyone) for 2009, $88.5MM in 2010, and the option that could only be reached if Sheets pitches one of 32 starts/season average or 205IP/ season average, otherwise would only be a $4MM liability on the books.

In any case, that’s only talking $7.9MM more than opening day payroll in 2008 (for both of the 09 and 10 numbers I discussed with Sheets), and for a club that had a $19.2MM EBIT, and sold 1MM tickets faster than ever coming off a 3MM butts-in-seats performance…well, I wouldn’t think it should be that far-fetched.

That ALL being said…I highly doubt anything will happen. Either due to Sheets’ unwillingness to take that much bonus money in 09 or the club’s unwillingness to spend that much.

Its nice to dream, though.

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 29, 2009 1:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Another thing

The nearly $81.5MM figure I stated above for payroll comes off of my figures I posted a week+ish ago. It includes everyone on the 40-man roster, and a $400k provisional for the 40th man (I’m guessing at this point just a minor leaguer). So, technically, that $400k can come off and Sheets’ goes on this year and next, so the numbers would actually be:

2009: $88.1MM
2010: $88.1MM

And here’s who replaces the guys on the roster we lose. Format: Guy Lost (Who’s Replacing):

Lamb (Gamel)
Counsell (Escobar)
Cameron (Cain)
Kendall (Salome)
Julio (Aguilar)
Hoffman (Bateman)

Gamel, Escobar, Salome, Aguilar are all already on the 40-man roster, so Cain and Bateman would need to be added, and the roster would be down to 35.

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 29, 2009 1:27 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

It could be just me

But I’d assume that we’re not giving a raise to the backup catcher, and maybe not to Coffey either.

At any rate, I think Sheets would be thrilled to be getting possibly $27 million over two years. In my improbable scenario, I was wondering about the feasibility of something we can afford in 2009 - say $6 million - with a player option that jumps up to maybe $12 million in 2010.

I guess, in any case, it depends on Moustache’s secret plan for Gamel. If he has a bat that can play on the major league level but a glove that doesn’t, then it’s hard to imagine him or Fielder NOT getting traded by this time next year, almost certainly Fielder. Removing Fielder’s salary gives you a lot of options.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Jan 29, 2009 5:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep, I didn't account for that

Simply to look at things ‘as they are.’

I, for one, think that this 2 year deal with Prince was done to significantly jump up his attractiveness in the market.

Again, whether The ’stache does it is up for grabs.

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 29, 2009 9:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

Those are the exact kinds of numbers I was wondering about. It still looks pretty tight, but there’s definitely room for #3-5 starter in 2010 if they’re willing to sign a long-term deal. Sheets would be a stretch given those figures, though.

by ecocd on Jan 29, 2009 2:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Brewers Classic on FSN

The 6/25/05 game is on where Weeks and Fielder hit their first home runs. Just saw Rickie go oppo down the line as well for a triple. Boy is it interesting to hear Sutton and Schroeder gush over the bat of Weeks and how great it’s going to be…I’m still holding out hope it will come around.

by MadJimiBrewha on Jan 29, 2009 8:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'm hoping it starts raining Skittles.

I think my dream is more likely.

I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 30, 2009 5:45 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	91	71	.561	0	Lost 6
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	83	78	.515	7.5	Lost 1
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	80	82	.493	11	Won 3
Cincinnati Red Reporter	78	84	.481	13	Won 2
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	74	88	.456	17	Lost 3
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	62	99	.385	28.5	Lost 2