BCB Projections: The Bullpen, Closing RF

Introduction, CA | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | SP

Corey Hart's projection has been packaged up and delivered.

BCB: .277/.333/.466

CHONE:.278/.335/.479

ZiPS: .282/.331/.491

That concludes our tour of the starting position players. I'll wrap up the whole lineup for tomorrow with our defense post.

Today we'll tackle the bullpen. I've struggled with how to set this up. First, we're going to disregard leverage for today, we'll wait a bit on that. Next, playing time is going to be tough to project-- if Morlan makes the opening day roster, he could throw 60 innings this year, but if he doesn't, he'll probably be sent back to the Rays.

So here's the plan, as of now. Project the main bullpen guys for their true talent ERA, FIP, tERA, whatever you would like to call it, and give them an innings estimate. For guys like Morlan, you can project quite a few innings and we'll adjust accordingly once we get to spring training. Think of it is projecting these guys individually, and not as a bullpen. CHONE projects 45 innings for Mark DeFelice, and Joe Bateman for 53, for example. Don't go that extreme, but you don't have to put a cap on your allotted innings here, we'll figure that all out later-- if you add up the CHONE projected innings, you get enough for about 3 teams.

To reiterate, you don't have to project everybody, and you don't have to give everyone 50 innings-- if you want to go 20 or so on a few guys, go for it. But for cases like Morlan if we don't know if he will make the team, just go optimistic on the innings pitched and we'll arrange the bullpen projections once we get through spring training. I would like some projections for McClung, too-- don't worry about the innings as much right now, just think about the true-talent ERA from the pen. Finally, factor in roles for the two lefties. It's fine to project Stetter and Swindle for the lowest ERAs because they will be used as LOOGYs.

Same format as yesterday for the pitchers. If you're pressed for time and just want to contribute some players, or just ERA talent estimates or just playing time, go right ahead-- I realize it's asking quite a bit to get people to actually go through all of this. If we don't get a great response on this one, we'll probably default to some CHONE/community mix on the ERA.

Pitcher
True talent ERA
IP if on the team

Here's the list of your options, don't feel forced to project all of them. Also, keep working on the starting pitchers, the link is in the top line and they'll be open all weekend. The more projections we get, the more accurate we are. Thanks.

Trevor Hoffman

Carlos Villanueva

David Riske

Mitch Stetter

R.J. Swindle

Jorge Julio

Tim Dillard

Mark DiFelice

Seth McClung

Eduardo Morlan

Omar Aguilar

Todd Coffey

[Note by jihad, 01/29/09 7:20 PM CST ] Edited, in case you've read it earlier.

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