Hyatt's Fantasy Baseball Preview: OF
This one will take awhile. For OF, i like to make sure that I'm getting a total of 50 HR+SB out of my guys. 20/20 is no longer an anomoly. In fact, it is now the standard for Fantasy. what you get outside of that will determine how good your team will finish.
Tier 1 (Rounds 1-3, due to the sheer number of guys out there)
1. Grady Sizemore- The only thing keeping him from being a top 5 pick is his K's which keep his average below .300. Other than that, you can expect 30/30 with 100 runs, and if he gets placed a little farther down the lineup, 100 RBIs as well.
1a. Matt Holiday- A lot of people are afraid of his away from Coors splits, which will not be beneficial in Oakland. I still like him for a .315+ average, 30+ homers, 25 SBs, and 100 RBIs and 80 Runs.
3. Josh Hamilton- There's a reason they call him the Natural. You saw it last year at the Home Run Derby, but he's truly a freak of nature. Playing right will help keep him healthy all year long and help prevent a late season swoon. The only thing that may hurt his numbers is that he will have to rely on Chris Davis as opposed to Milton Bradley for protection. 40 homers, 130+ RBIs, .320 ave, 90 runs, and 10 SB are not too much to ask.
4. Ryan Braun- He got screwed out of the Jewish Faith MVP if you ask me. He'll have about 10 more steals than Hamilton, but 20-30 fewer RBIs. Other than that, expect the same.
5. Manny Ramirez- Yeah, he's not done. It's just a matter of where he lands. He won't hit 40, or drive in 120 any more, but 30 and 100+ RBIs, with a .310 average is expected.
6. Carlos Lee- He was on his way to one of his best years until his broken pinky cost him August and September. His sneaky ability to steal 10 bases is gone, but you will get at least 30 homers, 100+ RBIs, and a .300 average, plus 100 runs.
7. Alfonso Soriano- Being a leadoff hitter keeps him from being higher in the rankings. However, if he stays healthy, he will hit 35+ homers with 25+ steals. The runs will be there as well, it's just the average and the RBI opportunities keep him out of the 1st round.
8.Jason Bay- Just wait until you see what he can do in a full year in Boston. That supporting cast will love Bay, as will you. He's past his knee problems, and expecting 30 HR, 100 RBI,100 runs,15 SB, with .290 average is fine.
9. Carlos Beltran- He's no longer a 40/40 threat, but he still has a shot at 30/30. I'm not sure he'll score as many runs though since I don't think you'll get the same production out of Delgado this year. But he's got Reyes and Wright ahead of him to make sure he's driving in a bunch.
10. Carlos Quentin- He's got a breakout season under his belt, but I am not trusting the power from a guy who never hit more than 21 in a year before in his pro career. I do like the 100+ Runs and Rbis though that keep him up in the draft. I'll take 30+ homers from him again, and he'll steal 10 bases for you. Just shows you that the Cell is still one of the best hitters parks out there.
Tier 2 (rounds 4-6)
11. Matt Kemp- He keeps improving, and his power development is eerily similar to Carlos Beltran's career path. He's my breakout candidate this year to get in to the top of the outfield market. That means I think he'll go 30/30 with a .300+ average.
12. Nick Markakis- Another emerging star. He'll hit 30+ homers, hit over .300, and be 90+ in both Runs and RBIs. He's not much of a speedster though, with only 10 steals last year.
13. Shane Victorino- He's the definition of the speedy guy I like. He's going to hit .290, hit 15 homers, and steal 35, scoring over 100 runs. If only Phily could figure out where to bat him.
14. Vlad Guererro- He's not going to drive in over 120 anymore, but he's still good for 30-100-.300 this year. his speed is gone, and he won't score over 90.
15. Magglio Ordonez- Yes, he didn't repeat his '07, but he's still a solid producer. 25 homers with 110 RBIs, and a .310 average are expected.
16. BJ Upton- Not much power in the regular season, but he did have 7 jacks in the playoffs. He has 30/30 potential, but I don't see it this year. 20/30 will be just fine, but he won't score 95 or drive in 85 this year.
17. Ichiro- Despite all that went wrong in Seattle last year, there's always Ichiro. Pencil him in for 30 steals, 100 runs, and a .310 average. He can't help the lineup around him, so don't expect much in the way of RBIs.
18. Carl Crawford- The power never materialized for this 20/40 threat. He was disappointing across the board last year, which makes him such a great pick this year. I like him for 15 homers, 40 steals, a .290 average, 85 RBIs, and 100 runs.
19. Jacoby Ellsbury- Here's the white Carl Crawford. Look at the numbers above, and take away the risk.
20. Ryan Ludwick- I'd call him an emerging star, but he's 30. I wouldn't have him in a keeper league, but he's solid for 30+ homers, and 100 RBIs. i don't trust the .300+ average, but he'll be solid for another season or 2.
21. Nate McClouth- one of those decent 20/20 guys that have emerged out there. I wouldn't expect more than that, but 100 runs are in the mix, along with 80 RBIs.
22. Adam Dunn- 40 homers and 100 RBIs. His runs are average, and you won't help you in SB. We all know about his low average, but if you can take the hit, he'll give you homers.
23. Curtis Granderson- He's reduced his Ks a ton, making him a great option... if he didn't stop running. Still, 25/15 with 110 Runs are worthy of a #2 outfield spot.
Third Tier (Round 6-9)
24. Alex Rios- Time for the 20/20 parade. Rios is a big guy, but still hasn't translated all his frame into power, but for fantasy, he could go 15/30 or 30/15. Either way, he's a solid contributor, and edges out the others due to more combined Runs and Rbi and a .290 average.
25. Corey Hart- OBP doesn't count in fantasy, though it would help his runs if he got on more. Still, he's 20/20 with a .280+ average.
26. Torii Hunter- Another 20/20 guy. He didn't drive in as many runs as you'd think he would in LA, but he scores 80, and is not going to kill your average.
27. Raul Ibanez- a power boost is expected just by moving from Safeco to Citizens Bank. His lack of speed hurts his value in my book, but a repeat of '06 is what I see,
28. Hunter Pence- Imagine Corey Hart with a terrible SB%. Hitting 6th in the lineup doesn't help either. But he still has 25 HR power, and if he can be more selective in when he goes, he'll be up the list a bit more.
29. Jermaine Dye- I don't like him as much, depite the Cell helping his power totals. I see him having a year similar to '07. He's a solid option if he goes yard 30, scores 90, and drives in 90, but I don't see him doing it.
30. Bobby Abreu- He won't be in the lefty haven of Yankee Stadium that truly helped his power, but he'll give you 15 homers and 20 steals this season, wherever he lands. Throw in 90 runs and Rbi, and you got a solid fantasy contributor
31. Vernon Wells- When he wasn't hurt, he was on his way for a solid bounceback season. I see him completing that bounceback and being a great buy low candidate if he runs a bit more. 30/10 is what I see coming.
32. Jason Werth- Going 20/20 as a platoon guy isn't the worst thing in the world, going full time will bring down his average. The downside is that he's still considered a platoon guy. Give him a full year of PAs, and start dreaming. Interestingly, he was slightly better on the road than he was at Citizen's Bank.
33. Andre Ethier- When he was coming up, the comparisons to Milton Bradley were prevalent. I don't see him hitting .300/.400/.500 like Bradley, but I do see 25 homers, and 90+ Runs and RBI with a .290 average.
34. Brad Hawpe- He hits .300, drives in 90, scores 80, and hits 30 Homers. Call it a day with that.
35. Xavier Nady- The addition of Nick Swisher crowds that Yankee outfield, But he stays healthy, and hitting in a better lineup will Increase his production. He'll be Brad Hawpe with 5 fewer homers.
36. Chris Young- 25/25 with 90 R and 80 RBI. If only that average was... well average, he'd be a 2nd tier guy. I still love him.
Tier 4 (rounds 9-12)
37. Milton Bradley- He's good for a .300/.400/.500 line every year. what that translates to is all up to how many plate appearances he gets. Let's call it at 400 PAs, whcih basically translates to 17 homers, 60 RBIs, 60 Runs.
38. Randy Winn- Another .300 hitter, with 15-20 potential in both Homers and Steals. Depending on SF's lineup improvements, he'll be anywhere from 60-80 in Runs and RBI.
39. Pat Burrell- He was better on the road, but can only hit lefties, despite the vast majority of his homers coming against righties. you can expect 25 homers, and no steals, but we're looking at only average Runs and RBI.
40. Jay Bruce- Here's the issue with Bruce. No one ahead of him gets on base. so while his homer and average will be good, his RBIs will suffer. 80 runs aren't out of the question.
41. Hideki Matsui- Being a lefty at Yankee Stadium keeps his numbers up, but he's now an injury concern. I like him for a repeat of 07 if he stays healthy, but I don't like his chances of staying healthy, and the Yanks like Melky Cabrera for some reason, which will eat into his playing time.
42. Johnny Damon- Another member of the crowded Yankee outfield, but he'll score 100 runs just by leading off ahead of Teixeira and A-rod. He won't drive in 75, but he will go for 15 homers and 20 steals.
43. JD Drew- The knock on Drew will always apply until he plays more than 130 games, but in those 130, he will produce. 20 homers, 70 RBI, 70 Runs is what you should expect.
44. Eric Byrnes- Injuries killed him last year. Don't expect anywhere close to his 50 steals from 2 years ago. He'll give you .270 with 20 homers, 70 RBI, 70 Runs, and 15 steals.
45. Delmon Young- He's only 23, He's developed extreme ground ball tendancies. 15-20 homers, with a .290 average, 15 steals, 75 RBI and Runs being expected.
The Rest (Round 12 on)
These are just guys I like to be had in later rounds:
Lasting Millage and Elijah "YOU DEAD DAWG" Dukes- Both are capable of 20/20 if they keep their heads on straight.
Mike Cameron- another 20/20 guy, this time with a bad average.
Nelson Cruz- He gets his chance as the penciled in RF with the Rangers. He hit a ridiculous 37 homers in 102 AAA games last year. If he can translate 60% of that to the majors, he'll be a solid contributor all year long.
Shin-Soo Choo- His power outburst last year was unexpected, but if he can earn regular time in a crowded Cleveland outfield, he'll be a 20 homer hitter with 80 Runs and 80 RBI.
Matt LaPorta- the best OF bat in the Minors, but he's got to earn his spot in spring. Whenever he comes up, snatch him up.
Josh Anderson, Wily Tavarez, Juan Pierre, Michael Bourne- Here are your steals one trick ponies. Don't count on them for anything else. I'd put Bourne and Tavarez up higher since they'll be at the top of their idiotic lineups, thus contributing some more runs.
Jack Cust- He's like Adam Dunn, except he won't drive in 100, and only hit 30+ homers.
Travis Snider- If he beats out Adam Lind in spring, look at the next Jay Bruce.
Colby Rasmus- If he stays healthy, he's got 20/20 potential.
AL and NL top 20
AL Top 20
1. Grady Sizemore
2. Matt Holiday
3. Josh Hamilton
4. Jason Bay
5. Carlos Quentin
6. Nick Markakis
7. Vlad Guererro
8. Magglio Ordonez
9. BJ Upton
10. Ichiro
11. Carl Crawford
12. Jacoby Ellsbury
13. Curtis Granderson
14. Alex Rios
15. Torii Hunter
16. Jermaine Dye
17. Vernon Wells
18. Xavier Nady
19. Hideki Matsui
20. Jonny Damon
NL Top 20
1. Ryan Braun
2. Manny Ramirez
3. Carlos Lee
4. Alfonso Soriano
5. Carlos Beltran
6. Matt Kemp
7. Shane Victorino
8. Ryan Ludwick
9. Nate McClouth
10. Adam Dunn
11. Corey Hart
12. Raul Ibanez
13. Bobby Abreu (assuming NL, otherwise he's 17th in AL)
14. Jason Werth
15. Andre Ethier
16. Brad Hawpe
17. Chris Young
18 Milton Bradley (again, assuming NL, otherwise 19th AL)
19. Randy Winn
20. Jay Bruce.
Again, comments are encouraged
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