Rumorville: Trevor Hoffman [updated]
by roguejim on Jan 7, 2009 5:11 PM CST
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PrintHey, it looks like Trevor Hoffman would be OK in Milwaukee after all:
...Hoffman has "mutual interest" in the Brewers, who have targeted the all-time saves leader as their top choice to fill their vacant closer's role.
Thurman and Hoffman apparently have been doing their due diligence on the Brewers, talking to folks in the organization to gauge the atmosphere, plans for 2009, etc. Hoffman went as far as talking to new manager Ken Macha.
Hoffman's stats are here. As usual, there are caveats: his ERA last season of 3.77 was a full run higher than his career average, and his highest since 1995. Plus, his numbers are no doubt helped by pitching in San Diego for so long. Then again, there's nothing wrong with his road numbers either. Plus, his WHIP and BAA were down from last season, when he posted a 2.98 ERA.
I have to say, I'd be pretty pleased to have Hoffman as our closer, even if he is a Type A closer.
UPDATE: It seemed like both the Dodgers and Brewers made offers to Hoffman, both one-year deals in excess of $4 million. The thinking is that if the offers are close, Hoffman, a California native, will sign with LA. However, an hour ago, the Brewers were reported to be "going hard after Hoffman" (I assume by upping their offer), making a "stronger move" to secure his services. Hoffman is expected to decide by the end of the week.
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Give me sheets and hoffman
and it will be a positive off season for me.
I just sit back and root for the taser
Peripherally..
Hoffman is heading downhill:
His HR/9 rocketed to the highest mark in his career last season, 1.59.
His FIP went up to 3.99 last season, 4th highest ever in his career.
His BABIP was .268, tied for fifth lowest in his career.
His HR/FB% was 13.8, second highest in his career.
His WPA last season was -0.51 the worst it has ever been, and only the second time he’s had a negative win probability added.
His GB was the highest its ever been in his career, which is a terrible idea when you’ve got butchers like Dick Weeks and Prince Fielder on the right side of the infield.
But, as long as we can get him for about $5MM this season with a vesting option for…say…$8MM-$9MM in ‘10, I wouldn’t be hugely opposed. The problem is The Mustache will sign him for 2/20 or some craziness. And then I’ll have heartburn for the next 9 months.
You're neglecting the most important peripherals
His K/9 was around 10 and his BB/9 was around 2. I’ll take that from a reliever any day.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
Sure
And 7/9 HR he gave up were at home. How far up do you think that goes at Miller Park? 15/19?
Who cares if he strikes out two every appearance if he gives up a bomb?
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 6, 2009 4:05 PM CST up reply actions
I’m just going to go ahead and guess it’s a random fluctuation.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
Sort of why Doug Melvin signed Eric Gagne last season?
Or Jorge Julio this season? Let’s hope it fluctuates down this year.
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 6, 2009 6:58 PM CST up reply actions
Really?
You’re really going to try and compare Gagne to Hoffman?
"You have no honor!" - McClung to Fukudome
yep
47% FB…I hope Miller Park extends those outfield walls!
I hope I eat my words. Otherwise it will be another long season.
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 8, 2009 2:52 AM CST up reply actions
I don't think Hoffman is going to make the difference between a good season or a bad one...
… if the rotation is what it appears likely to be.
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 8, 2009 8:40 AM CST up reply actions
But I agree with you.
The fact is, however, that he’s on a downturn. Miller Park is about 200 feet shorter at all parts of the field than is Petco. And the biggest issue I have? I have a gut feeling that Doug Melvin is going to overpay for Hoffman.
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 6, 2009 4:10 PM CST up reply actions
I would take him for $6MM in 09
And $8MM in ’10 with certain criteria met, such as innings pitched or certain number of appearances. Is two year deal going to be needed to get it done, because 1 year would be preferred with an old veteran.
Getting creative, could we require him to be atleast a type A player in order to vest in 2010? Considering the reason he is a Type A currently is his performance in 07, he probably would have to improve in 09 to make him a Type A again, and we probably would want him back if he does play well, if he doesn’t, then he is gone, and it is estentially a one year deal if he isn’t good.
Overall, I prefer the Brewer’s strategy of the past, find a hard thrower for cheap, have him rack up a lot of saves, and give it to someone else next year after he throws his arm off ala Turnbow, Kolb, to a lesser extent Cordero and Torres…. a closer is the most overrated position in baseball, so please don’t spend too much on him, especially with big raises coming for our arby guys.
The designated hitter rule is like letting someone else take Wilt Chamberlain's free throws.
Amen.
The fact that I agree with you should make you reexamine your logic.
Could Doug condition compensation on what Elias thinks of Hoffman within weeks of saying that Elias had their head up their collective ass on Sabathia vs. Texiera? I think he could.
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 6, 2009 4:06 PM CST up reply actions
Is two year deal going to be needed to get it done, because 1 year would be preferred with an old veteran.
That’s the rumor.
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 6, 2009 4:09 PM CST up reply actions
options and incentives
can’t be based on performance. I forget the exact language, but it’s OK to base incentives on “appearances” — like PA, or games finished, or starts — but not on things like ERA, RBI, or OBP.
That’s why “games finished” is used so frequently — it’s really a proxy for saves, since you’re not going to finish many games unless you get and keep the closer’s job — but it is technically.
I read about this recently, maybe at TheJay’s site?
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Jan 6, 2009 4:39 PM CST up reply actions
Would that exclude FA rankings?
incentives are allowed for things like MVP, Cy Young, All Star, you’d think Elias rankings would be along the same lines.
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 6, 2009 4:56 PM CST up reply actions
Perhaps
Major League Rule 3(b)(5) says: “No Major League Uniform Player’s Contract or Minor League Uniform Player Contract shall be approved if it contains a bonus for playing, pitching or batting skill or if it provides for the payment of a bonus contingent on the standing of the signing Club at the end of the championship season.”
It’s an attempt to prevent contract incentives becoming more important than team success. I’m not sure why trying to get more saves or drive in more runs would be a bad thing, but there are some situations where it sort of makes sense (going for a strikeout instead of trying to induce a double play, working a walk to increase OBP when putting the ball in play is more important, stealing bases when down 4 in the 9th, and so on.). Basing incentives on appearances prevents players from hurting the team in those specific situations. By the same token, it allows the team to control when guys trigger bonuses. A cheapskate team might choose not to give a reliever a chance to appear in his 70th game, etc. If the same reliever got a bonus for 100 K’s, he might go and cost the team money by striking out the other team’s best hitter. No one wants that. :)
Any opposition to including the Elias Rankings as an award-type incentive might include the fact that the Elias rankings are solely derived from statistics while other awards also include some sort of character (grit, hustle, scrappiness) requirements.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
Incentives can't be based on performance?
Then why the hell do they call them incentives? Why not, Incidental or Random Events That Will Cause Us To Give You More Money?
Like I needed further proof that MLB’s CBA is a train wreck.
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jan 6, 2009 9:07 PM CST up reply actions
the fake Hot Stove show on MLB network
which is little more than PR for MLB, even criticized Hoffman’s current ability. Seriously, I don’t think I’ve heard a single negative thing about anything at any time on any show on MLB/NY/Red Sox tv – well except for people who criticize Yankee spending, yet they talk about Hoffman’s declining skills and where he can go and whether he should pitch the friggin’ 8th inning.
The articles are coming steadily about Hoffman and the Brewers… two years is a requirement. I’m scared Hoffman will only be half as bad as Gagne for twice as long.
I saw that too.
And you’re not alone.
I’m not a fan of this.
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 6, 2009 7:02 PM CST up reply actions
Hmmmm.
Hoffman for 4M+
or
Gagne for 10M.
Thats a tough one. How did this happen?
How far will this one fly?
Rosenthal's latest says we're the frontrunner
Citing unnamed major league sources.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
Oh yeah forgot this
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9044754/Sources:-Hoffman-appears-headed-to-Milwaukee
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
prediction
6MM ’09, vesting option for ’10 for 8MM.
Sucktastic
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 8, 2009 2:54 AM CST up reply actions
Fangraphs
has this to say.
Hoffman, 41, is coming off of a relative down season. Sure, he is the leader in saves for a career, but one has to wonder how much left he has in the tank. His projection calls for 54 innings at around a 3.50 FIP. Plugging his projected runs allowed into the formula used to determine relievers value above replacement, Hoffman amounts to a .612 pitcher in a .451 league. Taking the difference, multiplying by innings pitched, and dividing by nine pegs Trevor as worth +0.97 wins next season. The leverage of these innings must be taken into account as well.
A closer will generally hover between LIs of 1.80 and 2.30, meaning Hoffman could be worth anywhere from +1.75 to +1.95 wins next season. At 41 years old, Hoffman could still command $8.5 to $9.5 mil at fair market value. Given his age and the performance decline in 2008 as well as the market favoring the buyers, I could see him signing a one-year deal in the $6 mil range, but nothing more. He might want another year to go out on top, but overvaluing him for career accomplishments would be a mistake.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
“… overvaluing him for career accomplishments would be a mistake.”
Overvaluing is the key word. Seems like I hear all the time about statistical evaluation on the Brewers. Dave whats-his-name has his own department filled with “whiz kids” for one. Surely, the Brewers wouldn’t “overvalue” someone. Or is all that stuff out the window when DM is fond of a player?
I wonder what happens if he isn’t effective. It sure seemed like the team was determined to get value from Gagne because they spent 10 million on him. What if Coffey or Morlan or whoever is better?
On the flip side, he seems like he will be fit and have something to prove.
The problem with that is that I see nowhere where he has a 3.50 FIP projection.
In fact, just check his fangraphs page. He’s projected for an even 4.00 FIP by Marcel, and Chone has him for a 4.17 ERA. Bill James can be disregarded because it’s optimistic on everybody.
---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
All those estimates are crap shoots. For the limited number of innings he pitches, 3.5 and 4 aren’t even that far apart.
Let's take a look.
50 IP, 3.50 FIP => (50/9) * 3.50 = 19.44 runs allowed
50 IP, 4.00 FIP => (50/9) * 4.00 = 22.22 runs allowed
Sure, it’s 3 runs. But anybody who follows the Brewers knows how important 3 runs can be when it comes to closers. Given leverage, these 2.78 runs are more like 5.3 runs, which is .53 wins, which is somewhere around 2.4 million dollars.
Now, I wouldn’t be making a quibble if I had seen projections ranging as high as 3.50 for an ERA or a FIP. But I’ve seen nothing better than 3.70 for Hoffman.
---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
Or it could be 2 runs and that is well within the error range of all those systems.
And multiplying times leverage, estimating what that would be, estimating how many wins that would be and then estimating the dollar value… c’mon. We’re riding this car, its headed downhill and there is no reverse. Cue the Deep Purple music. Hopefully Highway Star and not Lazy.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.16.2012 at 7:03 AM CST)
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