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Hyatt's Fantasy Baseball Guide: SP

I like grabbing 2 star pitchers early.  And when I say early, I mean I like to have 2 by round 6.  A lot of people wait for pitching, but for me, having 2 stud guys gives you an advantage that few others in your league will have due to the difference between the first two and 3rd tier guys.

1st tier (Rounds 2-3)

1. Johan Santana- I can remember at least 5 games the Mets bullpen blew for Santana last year.  I'm not sure anyone will benefit more from the improvements that his team did in the off-season that him.  With that, Johan gets the top pitcher spot.  He will be over 20 wins with a sub 3 ERA and 200+ Ks.

2. CC Sabathia- His overuse didn't hurt him last year, and it won't hurt him this year either.  With the Yankee lineup, you can guarantee that early season lack of run support won't hurt him this year.  20+ wins with a 3 ERA and 200+ Ks are to be expected.

3. Tim Lincecum- Ok, he's a freak of nature.  How he won 18 on that Giants team will never be explained to my satisfaction.  The only reason I have him ranked so low is I'm worried about the 61 extra innings he threw between the last 2 seasons.  He makes it through ok, and puts up similar numbers in a better Giants lineup this year, he's #1.

4. Brandon Webb- I'll be honest, he's the safest bet of the starters, and i would be just fine with him heading my staff.  He's improved his numbers every year of the past 4.

2nd Tier (Rounds 4-5)

5. Jake Peavy- San Diego's struggle to score runs hurts him in the W column, and he had issues staying healthy, but I see a solid bounce back season for him this year.  If he gets traded though, don't expect a sub 3 ERA, as he has a 2.56 ERA at Petco in his career.

6. Cole Hamels- His numbers were down last year, but he's still an ace I'd trust to lead a staff.  He's 25, and pitched 220 innings last year.  Health has been a concern in the past, but when healthy, he's elite.

7. Roy Halladay- When your downside is 15 wins, a 3.00 ERA, and a great WHIP, you are easily one of the best pitchers in fantasy.  His spike in K's may not stick, but he's almost as safe as Webb to be a great pick.

8. Dan Haren- Though he looks like the guy that lost the beard bet in Knocked Up, He's thrown 200 innings in 4 straight years, and with a little more run support, he'd be higher up.  One word of caution, he's had an ERA of higher than 4.14 after the break in 3 straight years.

3rd Tier (Round 6-9)

9. Francisco Liriano- There isn't a pitcher with more upside than Liriano.  In fact, I'd venture to say that the Twins cost themselves the division by sticking with Livian Hernandez instead of Liriano.

10.Josh Beckett - Injuries last year have Beckett falling later in the draft.  This is a huge advantage that you can take advantage of.

11. Scott Kazmir - His walk rate has been his big killer.  However, his huge K potential and an improved Rays team will carry him to a great fantasy season.

12. John Lackey - Assuming he's healthy, he's a Cy Young candidate.  He destroys every team outside his division, but has issues with the Rangers and Mariners, with a career 5.36 ERA.  Being that the Angels are still the class of the division, I'd expect a huge rebound this year.

13. Carlos Zambrano - Big Z always gets pushed down, he's hungry and he's nuts.  His K's will be back, and the Cub lineup will always give him decent support.

14. Roy Oswalt - Always a solid SP and good value if you can draft him later.  Yes the Astros aren't the best, but Oswalt will rebound even if they still have issues.

15. Jon Lester - A big season for the youngster, but with all the extra work, he may be an injury risk

4th Tier (Rounds 10-12)

16. Chad Billingsley - He's only going to get better, but he is not going to help you in the WHIP category.  He will be the Dodgers ace, and we'll see if he's ready.  Manny coming back would help a ton for his prospects.

17. Felix Hernandez -  The stuff is there but the team is not.  It's going to be fun to watch Felix mature some more this year, and he'll help you in the rate stats, but wins will be harder to come by.  But you never know, you may see a Lincecum season out of him.

18. Joba Chamberlain - Joba is ready to take on the #2 spot for the Yankees, but I'm not sure if they'll let him get 200+ innings.  He'll be a monster with K's and WHIP for you.

19 is your hopes and dreams.  Actually i made a change in the standings, and didn't feel like adjusting everyone else.

20. James Shields - A great WHIP candidate, 180+K potential on a very good Rays team.   He's a difference maker when it comes to championships, real or fantasy

21. Daisuke Matsuzaka - He'll help you in 3 categories, which is good, but his high walk rate will kill your WHIP.

22. Yovani Gallardo - If you are drafting with mostly people outside of Milwaukee, he's going to be a steal for you later on.  Otherwise, you may have to get him earlier.  Either way, he'll be good for 12+ wins, great WHIP, great ERA, and decent K's.

23. Cliff Lee - I don't expect a repeat.  In fact, if anyone is going to be the next Mike Hampton, it'll be Lee.  However, there's more of a chance for him to be just solid.

24. Edinson Volquez - 196 innings on his young arm is dangerous.  Expect the Dusty effect to occur, like it did with both Prior and Wood.  There is a small chance he could be the next Zambrano, but that chance is small.

25. A.J. Burnett - The Yankee lineup will keep him up in W's, but he won't repeat his last year.  He'll be a good sourse of K's

26. Matt Cain - The improved Giants lineup will help him, since he had some of the worst run support last year.  186 K's weren't lost on me though.  I expect him to become a decent mid round sleeper, and help a lot of people rise in the standings

27. David Price - The best prospect in baseball will have some growing pains, but he's a smart kid (most people that go to Vandy are) and will definitely be a solid contributor in the 2nd half.

28. Ervin Santana - Stepped in nicely for Kelvim Escobar last year, and with the Angels lineup, he'll be good again.

29. Justin Verlander - Well that was mostly unexpected.  I like him a lot for value this year.

Tier 5 (Rounds 13-18)
30. Aaron Harang - 200K potential makes him a well calculated risk.

31. Zack Greinke - It looks like he's finally putting it together.  There are 80 extra innings on that arm though.  Don't take him too high

32. Ben Sheets - He'll be very good wherever he lands... for 24 starts.

33. Erik Bedard - If he's ready for opening day, he'll be a decent late round risk.  That injury history scares me

34. Rich Harden - He's talented as hell, but I wouldn't touch him becuase of he's another that is a DL trip waiting to happen

35. Adam Wainwright - when healthy, he was fantastic.  He's the Cards ace, and if healthy, could be a 15 W 180 K guy with a sub 3.50 ERA

36. Brett Myers - Myers is the mistake I make every year.  I like him a ton, becuase of his 200+ inning/180 K potential, but he hurts me every year.

37. Chein-Ming Wang - Need wins? have K's?  Wang is your man.  heh... wang.

38. Chris R. Young -This guy is a mistake you don't want to make.  Every year, he tantalizes you with a decent 1st half, but has never been over 12 wins,  or 180 Ks.  He's going to give you a decent ERA, but he'll just piss you off in the end.

39. Matt Garza - The epitome of a solid #3.

40. John Smoltz - Going to Boston, but he's most likely not going to hold up.  However, when he comes back, he's got as much production as any of the tier 2 guys.

41. Ryan Dempster -There's no way he'll be as good as he was last year, but he'll be good for you in the 1st half.

42. Josh Johnson - I loved this guy before Girardi destroyed his elbow.  Now he's back, and he will be a solid contributor to your team.

45. Derek Lowe - A better real life player than fantasy guy.  But if you like bigger names on your team (like drafting Jeter), he'll help your team as you dwell in the bottom.

43. Ricky Nolasco - I'm not believing it.  Don't overdraft this guy.

44. Gavin Floyd - Still too much of a flyball pitcher in a hitters park for me

46. Max Scherzer - More hype than necessary, as usual with Boras guys, and still a year away from breaking out

47. Brandon Morrow -Want the next reliever turned good starter, Morrow is your man.  I like him a lot this year

49. Scott Baker - keeps improving every year, and will be a solid contributor

51. Kevin Slowey -could be better than baker, with 180 K potential

52. Jair Jurrjens - Nothing flashy about him, with the exception of his interesting name, just a solid contributor

48. Justin Ducscherer - injuries scare me, but a low ERA and WHIP contributor for you.

53. Fausto Carmona - His 07 gets him this high on his list, but I think he's closer to the 08 version as the reality of the situation.  I'm not going to waste a pick for a hope of a repeat.

54. Javier Vazquez - You can count on Ks, and in more of a pitchers park, I like the odds on a better year.  Another guy I just can't quit

50. John Maine - another guy that gets a lot of talk just because he plays in New York.  I don't believe the hype, and neither should you

55. Ubaldo Jimenez - A fantastic september makes him worth a shot

56. Oliver Perez - If he stays with the Mets he'll be as good as he was in 2008

57. Mike Pelfrey -see Maine, John.  Can't get much worse

58. Clayton Kershaw - Filthy stuff, but doesn't miss enough bats yet.  let someone else take him

59. Phil Hughes - see Pelfrey, Mike.

 

I do reserve the right to change these next month, which I will.  But for now, this will give you a decent idea of where to go.

0 recs  |  Comment 6 comments

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Edinson Volquez

2005-2008 IP totals: 140.0, 154.1, 178.2, 196.0 — that’s not a terrible workload and he only topped 120 pitches one time last season.

Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.

by TheJay on Jan 10, 2009 8:13 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Alright

point taken, and I knew if anyone was going to bust me on that, it would be you. However, he’s still young, and that’s 680.2 innings on his arm. That is a lot for a guy who’s just turning 26

I just sit back and root for the taser

by Hyatt on Jan 10, 2009 8:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Why I find it hard to think in terms of fantasy baseball

is stuff like this. Diasuke and Zambrano will be picked in any fantasy draft, and Buerhle will get picked in most drafts too. I just find it hard to evaluate pitchers by fantasty stats. As the DRB guys said in that thread, Diasuke is a statistical implosion waiting to happen. No he didn’t figure it out, he just got lucky last year.

Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.

by Jordan M on Jan 10, 2009 10:27 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

And that's why you wouldn't take Dice-K

But here’s the thing. Fantasy sports is a game upon itself. We all know games aren’t won by WHIP or Ave, or even OPS. Fantasy Baseball is a basic way of saying I can kick your ass with my knowledge as it applies to 10-20 different categories of baseball stats. It forces you to take a more holistic view of the game as it comes to personel, and allow you to find out about guys like Mike Aviles who will help your team win.

Now I’m not saying Diasuke will help the Red Sox win more games than Buerhle or Sonnanstine, but I will tell you that he helped more Fantasy teams win more than Buerhle or Sonnanstine. And pitchers aren’t meant to be evaluated on Fantasy statistics. But as they pertain to the game of fantasy baseball, this is how I see them ranking.

I just sit back and root for the taser

by Hyatt on Jan 11, 2009 12:19 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I can't see Joba Chamberlain taking the Yankees #2 rotation spot.

Especially with Sabathia, Burnett, and Wang all set to go ahead of him.

How far will this one fly?

by Rendezvous on Jan 11, 2009 12:56 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Different topic, different post.

The only problem Tim Lincecum has injury-wise would be pulling a hammy on that monster delivery. It takes so much pressure off the arm and shoulder.

How far will this one fly?

by Rendezvous on Jan 11, 2009 1:02 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

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