If Smoltz is healthy come May – June then that signing will be a steal. I love John Smoltz. His stuff is nasty and he is a consummate professional; one of the classiest players in MLB. Nice job by the Sox. $5 million base pay and another $5 million in possible incentives.

… to anything more than $4M plus team option for $6M next will be about this cool

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/37268769.html

The guy can still pitch, and his fastball is at 85 now— it’s not like it can get much lower, and he’s still been effective with it.

Eric Seidman of Fangraphs:

Hoffman, 41, is coming off of a relative down season. Sure, he is the leader in saves for a career, but one has to wonder how much left he has in the tank. His projection calls for 54 innings at around a 3.50 FIP. Plugging his projected runs allowed into the formula used to determine relievers value above replacement, Hoffman amounts to a .612 pitcher in a .451 league. Taking the difference, multiplying by innings pitched, and dividing by nine pegs Trevor as worth +0.97 wins next season. The leverage of these innings must be taken into account as well.

A closer will generally hover between LIs of 1.80 and 2.30, meaning Hoffman could be worth anywhere from +1.75 to +1.95 wins next season. At 41 years old, Hoffman could still command $8.5 to $9.5 mil at fair market value. Given his age and the performance decline in 2008 as well as the market favoring the buyers, I could see him signing a one-year deal in the $6 mil range, but nothing more. He might want another year to go out on top, but overvaluing him for career accomplishments would be a mistake.

Which is almost exactly how I feel about it. I’m fine with $6 mil. Hopefully the next season isn’t guaranteed, but I see no reason to hate on this deal too much, unless it stops Melvin from acquiring a starter. I don’t think that’s the case. $6 mil is 2 Aaron Mileses or 2 Craig Counsells.

$6 mil, possible +$1.5 in incentives, no second year. That’s fine with me. You’re valuing him at about 1.2-1.3 wins above replacement, and I think he’s a good bet to exceed that.

but if we end up signing Sheets to a 1 or 2 year deal, we’d have a pretty good pitching staff - probably better than what we had to start last season, considering the upgrade from Gagne to Hoffman.

The weird part is saying we need Sheets. I was kind of hoping we were done with his various aches and pains, but I’d feel a lot better about our chances if we had a #1 pitcher, with YoGa as #2.