Hoffman Deal Done
by Scooter82
on Jan 8, 2009 10:56 AM CST
84 comments
MILWAUKEE -- The Brewers have agreed to terms with free-agent closer Trevor Hoffman, acquiring the former Padres right-hander who's the all-time leader with 554 saves, his agent, Rick Thurman told MLB.com in a text message on Thursday morning.
Posted on Brewers.com as of 10:43am, much like KLSnow I'm happy the Brewers have done something about our ninth inning but am still much more concerned about improving our starting rotation. Although I'm looking forward to hearing "For whom the bell tolls" on Opening Day
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Terms of the deal, for those who don't like clicking links or reading
FoxSports.com was the first to report that Hoffman will earn a $6 million base salary in 2009 with up to $1.5 million in incentives. A separate report from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel confirmed that the Brewers hold an option for 2010.
by Scooter82 on
Jan 8, 2009 11:00 AM CST
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It's still reading
until you record yourself reciting it and post the soundbyte.
If you don’t like clicking links or reading… how did you get here?
by tcyoung on
Jan 8, 2009 12:03 PM CST
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Seriously...?
Ichiro, on facing Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first time: "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul."
by DaleCoop14 on
Jan 8, 2009 2:32 PM CST
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I understand that this isn't a slam-dunk deal
but for those of you who aren’t happy about it, remember that the Reds are paying Coco Cordero $12MM this year.
And next year.
And the year after that.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Jan 8, 2009 11:25 AM CST
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Don't remind me about Cordero's deal
As a Reds fan, it makes me sick.
And as Brewers fans, you shouldn’t like this at all. $6M (at least) for a pretty old guy who is close to washed up. I feel pretty confident an in-house option could have been developed that could do the job just as well as Hoffman and for a fraction of the prices.
Paying for “closers” just doesn’t make sense at all.
You went full retard. No one ever comes back from that. - Sgt. Osiris
by cesarhernandez on
Jan 8, 2009 11:29 AM CST
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I think if there were a likely in-house option
we would’ve gone with that. Some people here like Villanueva or McClung, but there are reasons to question both, partly because both may be more valuable in different roles (longer middle relief, starting rotation), and partly because they haven’t shown elite levels of consistency in their previous bullpen roles, like a Scot Shields type who is begging to be turned into a closer.
Keep in mind Doug Melvin has a strong track record of doing just what you propose, with guys like Dan Kolb, Turnbow, and even attempting with Mike Adams.
When Jeremy Affeldt gets 8MM for two years, I have no problem giving Hoffman $6 for 1.
Nice pic and sig line, by the way. I love that movie.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Jan 8, 2009 11:33 AM CST
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Fangraphs is skeptical
Me too.
by Charlie Marlow on
Jan 8, 2009 12:12 PM CST
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I'm ok with it at 6 millions plus incentives.
I’m not throwing a party or anything, but I’m ok with it.
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on
Jan 8, 2009 12:14 PM CST
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im pretty pscyhed about it!
this means mcclung should get a shot in the rotation. sweet!
by Jamie in LA on
Jan 8, 2009 12:25 PM CST
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Hmmm
I bet Son of Clung still starts the year in the pen.
It would be fun to use McClung to set up a change-up artist as closer…
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on
Jan 8, 2009 12:34 PM CST
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I'd throw a party
but it’s hard to depict a wicked change-up on a birthday cake.
“See those bits of blue frosting there? Those are his fingers as he’s gripping the ball like so…”
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on
Jan 8, 2009 12:33 PM CST
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Its much better that there's no option
I still think with the state of the SP, he’ll only get a shot at converting 30 or so OPPs.
Maybe that’s overly pessimistic, but how can you be optimistic with the current starting 5?
by Charlie Marlow on
Jan 8, 2009 12:52 PM CST
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Ask Doug.
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on
Jan 8, 2009 2:33 PM CST
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You have a weakness for washed-up Padres
I think maybe you’d like the Brewers to sign Greg Maddux to complete the trifecta. Or Brian Giles may be available.
by Marty McSuperFly on
Jan 8, 2009 12:40 PM CST
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I don't understand the McClung love
He strikes me as pretty ‘meh.’ And I remember Melvin creating those closers, so this signing puzzles me. The Brewers must be really desperate for help, or maybe Melvin wanted to bring in a big name as a PR move, I dunno.
Oh, and TT was tremendous. Although I thought it would have been even better if they had a real action hero type (like Van Damm or Stallone) in the Ben Stiller role.
You went full retard. No one ever comes back from that. - Sgt. Osiris
by cesarhernandez on
Jan 8, 2009 12:43 PM CST
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Heck
We paid Gagne $10 last season. This is a better pitcher for less money.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on
Jan 8, 2009 12:30 PM CST
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So Gagne is the standard by which bullpen acquisitions are measured now?
“Hey, this deal could suck, but at least it won’t suck as bas as the last one” is pretty hard to put on a t-shirt.
I’m also reminded of the following exchange, for reasons I can’t quite explain:
“Could be worse.”
“How?”
“Could be raining.”
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on
Jan 8, 2009 2:36 PM CST
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Actually,
It’s ’Hell’s Bells’ not For Whom the Bell Tolls.
As for the signing it self, I’m a fan of it, but as is the consensus here, I’d rather attack our major issue first here, which is starting pitching. That all down the road, I do like 30/34 saves out of a guy regardless the age. I think Gagne blew 4 saves in 4 weeks.
by Lavender on
Jan 8, 2009 12:04 PM CST
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seriously
I was going to flag this post if someone didn’t correct that!
September 15: Not a bad little Monday
by molitorfan on
Jan 8, 2009 6:47 PM CST
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Aww hell they both start with bells
who listens to the rest of the song?
by Scooter82 on
Jan 8, 2009 8:19 PM CST
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That would be great
if, as Hoffman is throwing a strikeout pitch, he yells at the batter “It tolls for THEE!”
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on
Jan 8, 2009 8:26 PM CST
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have you no shame?
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on
Jan 10, 2009 6:52 AM CST
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Career saves leader
So, this will now be the second time that the Brewers will have had the reigning career saves leader on their roster. Not that it’s anything to brag about really, but it strikes me as, well, recondite.
It's called "playing the percentages."
by hilbelink on
Jan 8, 2009 12:04 PM CST
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Ned Yost would approve.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on
Jan 8, 2009 12:36 PM CST
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New poll on the main page, btw.
I’m curious to hear what people think about the move.
I don't specifically articulate my motives, because that wouldn't travel as well as a boo does.
by KLSnow on
Jan 8, 2009 12:49 PM CST
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The poll needs a "like it" choice.
It’s not really that much money considering what others are paying for closers and what the Brewers have to spend. Hoffman is a good pitcher. I think he’ll do the job adequately to well. But he’s just a closer. This isn’t really earth shattering. I don’t “love it,” but I’m a notch above “meh.”
Don't try to do too much with it. Just take the ball the other way.
by shooty babitt on
Jan 8, 2009 1:48 PM CST
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i voted i love it...
cause we needed a closer; and there wasnt much else out there. and we need mcclung either in the rotation or as a late inning guy.
6 mil seems pretty reasonable to me.
by Jamie in LA on
Jan 8, 2009 6:47 PM CST
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ok, This bumps us up to a 5 on the off-season grading
that’s from a 3. 5 is still failing though. I expect the team to come back to Arizona ready to compete, and in order to do that, we need one of the remaining high quality starters out there (either Lowe or Sheets). So as Mike Holmgren repeated in the locker room over and over during the Packers’ ‘96 season, "… but we’re not done, yet."
I just sit back and root for the taser
by Hyatt on
Jan 8, 2009 12:53 PM CST
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Per Tom H
There is no option for 2010 - it’s just a straight one-year deal, which is fine with me.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on
Jan 8, 2009 1:05 PM CST
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So 30 saves and a 3.7 ERA in 2009 nets a Class A rating a two picks in 2010...
… but only if you’ve got enough stones to offer arbitration to a 42 year old closer…
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on
Jan 8, 2009 2:38 PM CST
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actually
if he pitches that well, probably should offer arbitration.
the likely outcome is a similar deal the following year. while signing a 40-something player is hardly risk-free, the real problems come from giving multi year deals to such players. If he looks as good next year as he looks right now, I’d be happy risking another one-year deal.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on
Jan 8, 2009 5:13 PM CST
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Better than Gagne, I guess, though:
2008 Trevor Hoffman – 101 ERA+
2008 Guillermo Mota – 105 ERA+
I realize they can’t be directly compared like that, but…just sayin’.
This isn’t an awful deal, but I kind of wish the Brewers would finally sign a competent closer before he’s well past his prime.
I also am having nightmare visions of Hoffman collapsing mid-season but being left in the “9th Inning Role™” for about two months later than he should be, though perhaps I should be optimistic that Macha will be marginally better than Yost in that regard.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on
Jan 8, 2009 1:42 PM CST
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Competent closers in their prime cost more than 6mil/year
I gotta think this is better than paying more than twice as much per year for probably three times longer for a guy like FUentes.
It is what it is.
by coolig on
Jan 8, 2009 2:40 PM CST
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Old closers with roughly league-average skills cost less than 6mil/year
I’m not a big Fuentes fan either, but for the record I think he only makes $8.5mil next year and $9mil after. I just meant that, in general, the Brewers franchise has seemed especially incompetent at signing relievers in recent years.
There weren’t really any good closers for the Brewers to sign this offseason, only accentuating the fact that we should have shored up the bullpen with good value pitchers and gone with someone like McClung in the closer’s role, instead of overpaying for a “proven” closer who was good a decade ago.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on
Jan 8, 2009 3:14 PM CST
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1. League average closers cost about $6 million per year on the free agent market.
2. Hoffman does not have league average skills.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
by Jordan M on
Jan 8, 2009 3:26 PM CST
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to clarify that
His skills are quite a bit better than league average.
I guess I’m really surprised about the negativity about this. It’s $6 mil. Hoffman has been worth between 1 and 2 wins above replacement as a closer the past few years, and unless you think he’s going to suddenly collapse or get injured, there’s no reason to think he won’t be again, and that’s market value or even better. Plus, it’s one year, no commitment.
My view is that this is just a move, not the move. If you work with the assumption that this means they won’t be pursuing a starting pitcher, I could see why this would be seen as a poor move, but I don’t think that’s the case.
Also, this allows a better pitcher like Villanueva to be used in high-leverage situations in the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings. Like what we hoped to have with Gagne and Riske last year, except it didn’t work out.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
by Jordan M on
Jan 8, 2009 3:29 PM CST
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Well said
I find myself getting much more worked up about this move than I should simply because the Brewers haven’t made many moves this offseason.
by Supertramp on
Jan 8, 2009 3:39 PM CST
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He’s 41 years old and has been steadily declining in effectiveness for years now, if he keeps his ERA+ above 100 I will be pleased but if he doesn’t I certainly won’t be surprised.
I know he’s not a bad pitcher, but let’s face it, he got $6 million because he’s had a good career and management thinks he “has what it takes” to be a closer, which is foolish in my opinion.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on
Jan 8, 2009 3:50 PM CST
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Jihad’s posts on Hoffman demonstrate no discernible pattern of steady decline in possibly the most important measures of a RP’s success: K/BB and WHIP. In fact, Hoffman’s K/BB and K/9 IP are much better than replacement level. Yes, the ERA+ declined and the HR rate increased last season, but the former is dependent on some important variables independent of the pitcher’s talent and his HR rate has appeared to fluctuate throughout his career.
For the price and length of the contract as well as the flexibility for Villa and McClung, the signing seems like a prudent, efficient move.
Lastly, Gagne cannot be considered analogous to Hoffman. Gagne’s injuries, partial seasons, and absolute blow-up in Boston that preceded his brief tenure in Milwaukee are much different than Hoffman’s health, full seasons, and poor-first half 2008 ERA. And $10 million is more than $6 million.
I have too much time to get anything done
by mschroeder on
Jan 8, 2009 4:32 PM CST
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I share your puzzlement over the dislike of the deal. It’s, simply, a great move.
by HRF on
Jan 8, 2009 5:18 PM CST
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...
I would say that “great” is a stretch. Hoffman is by no means a bad pitcher but it’s obvious he’s being overpaid because of the number of saves next to his name.
To be fair Hendry did the same thing by trading for Kevin Gregg.
I like baseball.
by morgane on
Jan 8, 2009 5:24 PM CST
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Even if he’s “overpaid”, it’s not like the dollars were going to be spent elsewhere, their payroll is still lower than last seasons and no money is tied up in 2010 and beyond when The Brewers will be viable for the NL Central championship without having to overachieve.
Hoffman is as good of a stop gap as they come. And if the Brewers do overachieve and contend with your Cubs or the devil birds in St. Louis, it’s even better.
by HRF on
Jan 8, 2009 6:02 PM CST
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i agree.
and you have to think if the star power. the brewers marketing guys are gonna love having him.
its pretty cool to go see a hall of famer pitch, even if he is past his prime.
i saw trevor set a save last year against the crew at petco (despite giving up a homerun to cammy that hit right over where i was sitting); and that was pretty cool. and, the walk in music is totally cheesy; but kind of cool. maybe they can change it to “wild thing.”
by Jamie in LA on
Jan 8, 2009 6:55 PM CST
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Excellent point, Jihad
I rec’d that.
That pretty much sums up my thoughts on the move. If this is the final move we make, and Melvin has a “Done & Done” attitude toward the rest of this offseason, I’m really not in favor of the move. In that case it looks like spending $6MM for the sake of spending it.
However, if this deal allows them to still pursue another SP, then it’s fine and there’s really no reason not to like it. Just for a hoot, pretend that we are able to sign Sheets to some contract like 2Y/$12.5 Per with a 3rd year option. We’d still have a managable payroll, if that happens, and I think overall the depth on the entire staff would be great.
(Sign Sheets, please.)
It is dangerous for an athlete to believe his own publicity, good or bad - Bob Uecker, 1982.
by Adam P on
Jan 9, 2009 9:02 AM CST
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Here's to him getting career save #600 in Milwaukee
Hard to get excited or upset over a one-year deal, even if it’s $6 million.
Obscure baseball records and more at my blog, Recondite Baseball.
by TheJay on
Jan 8, 2009 4:01 PM CST
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Thank you
from all Cubs fans.
I like baseball.
by morgane on
Jan 8, 2009 4:54 PM CST
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…did you really think The Brewers were a threat to you before this move?
by HRF on
Jan 8, 2009 5:22 PM CST
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Yes I did, and they still are.
The Brewers remained competitive with an injured Gallardo, a make-shift bullpen, and 150 games with Ned Yost.
I like baseball.
by morgane on
Jan 8, 2009 5:28 PM CST
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shhhhhhhh… let the prognosticators declare that the Brewers are going to finish in the cellar with the Pirates… bad defense, horrible starting pitching, a terrible bullpen and streaky HR dependent hitting… and a retread manager who pales beside the wizard Piniella… there is no hope…
by ol Pete on
Jan 8, 2009 5:37 PM CST
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If you thought they were a threat to you before this deal, I find it laughable that you now don’t consider them a bigger threat.
by HRF on
Jan 8, 2009 5:59 PM CST
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That’s not meant to be hostile, it’s just… Hoffman = good. Signing him isn’t stopping the Brewers from making other splashes.
by HRF on
Jan 8, 2009 6:04 PM CST
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No offense taken
I just think the save is a laughable statistic, and it cost the Crew a few million dollars. Since age obviously isn’t scaring Melvin off, I would have rather threw a couple mill at Russ Springer but there’s a reason I’m not a baseball GM.
I like baseball.
by morgane on
Jan 8, 2009 6:18 PM CST
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How is it laughable?
2009 CHONE for Hoffman:
http://www.baseballprojection.com/hoffmtr3745.htm
He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher so that 4.17 ERA will be inflated by Miller not to mention the other homer-happy parks he’ll see a few more times this year (GABP comes to mind).
Marcel is kinder to him, projecting a non-park neutral 3.74 ERA.
I know ERA isn’t the best indicator of performance for an RP or anyone for that matter but one thing you can count on is that he’s gonna give up some long-balls.
I like baseball.
by morgane on
Jan 8, 2009 6:14 PM CST
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Just for reference
7 of the 8 homers he gave up last year were at Petco Park
5 of the last 6 seasons his road ERA has been better than his home ERA, including last year
I don’t put much any stock in 20-30 inning samples of home/road ERA and home runs for relief pitchers, but I really think the risk has been overstated. Good pitchers are good pitchers. Sure his ERA will be a bit higher, but I don’t htink it’s too big of a deal.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
by Jordan M on
Jan 8, 2009 6:32 PM CST
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Allowing home runs at Petco isn’t exactly a good thing, but point taken.
Marcel uses data from the previous three seasons, so more than just 20-30 inning sample sizes. For the record, I know that all projection systems are inherently fallible regardless of their complexity but it’s better than nothing.
I like baseball.
by morgane on
Jan 8, 2009 8:50 PM CST
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I'm with you
A career 45.5% FB pitcher moving from Petco (30th in PF) to MP (22nd in PF), while not a huge jump, is somewhat concerning, particularly in light of his poor home performance.
by Charlie Marlow on
Jan 8, 2009 8:56 PM CST
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Don't forget his infeld fly rate is around 10%
when talking about home runs, you absolutely have to separate OF flies and IF flies.
---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
by jhmoore on
Jan 9, 2009 3:46 PM CST
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So we should expect him to pitch more poorly at home, then, right?
If that trend holds up, anyway.
by Charlie Marlow on
Jan 8, 2009 8:54 PM CST
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Absolutely not
I’d assume it’s irrelevant and not a product of skill, unless, there’s a voodoo reason to believe that he is “more comfortable” at home or something. In showing this trend, I’m trying to explain my points, which are:
1. Hoffman is a good pitcher, and his important peripherals haven’t shown signs of decline
2. Hoffman lacks velocity, but he has for several years and has been able to produce good results despite this
3. Hoffman is an extreme flyball pitcher. Last year, he gave up 47% flyballs, since 2002 his average is 45. in 2007 it was 51. Last year’s home run spike was not a result of more flyballs hit against him, just less luck.
Detractors to this signing seem to note that he is a flyball pitcher, which is true, and that moving from Petco to Miller Park will be devastating to his effectiveness. I’m just noting that last year he gave up 7/8 homers at Petco and that ERA stat to show that it’s not like Petco has been propping him up the last few years. I expect some regression, and that’s fine. They’re paying him as about a 1.2 WAR player, and I think he’s a pretty safe bet to achieve that. Not a bargain signing by any means, but not a terrible one some are making it out to be.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
by Jordan M on
Jan 8, 2009 9:49 PM CST
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I thought it was terrible
When I thought there was an option that would likely vest.
Just 1/6MM isn’t all that bad. I simply think the fervid Brewers fans who are merely salivating at signing a ‘biggish name’ free agent should temper that excitement a bit.
by Charlie Marlow on
Jan 8, 2009 10:34 PM CST
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Nonsense
We needed a closer. Melvin brings in a guy who (1) has saved 30 or more games in every non-injury-shortened season since 1994, and (2) had a sparkling 1.04 WHIP (my favorite “mainstream” stat for evaluating closers) last season and a career WHIP of 1.05. Moreover, we got him for a very reasonable $6 million. ($7.5 million if he hits his incentives, though if he hits his incentives, he’ll likely have earned it.) And it’s for one year: if he stinks, we’re only on the hook for 2009, and if he puts up a typical Hoffman season, he might actually net us draft picks,
Yes, he’s old - though he was old last season, and he seemed to do fine. Yes, he’s no longer pitching in Petco - though his road numbers last season (2.87 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) and in his career (3.09 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) seem to suggest that he does fine outside of San Diego. Yes, he’s not pitching in the pitcher-friendly parks in the NL West - though his numbers in NL Central parks, both last season and in his career, are very solid, including a 1.59 ERA at Miller Park. (As an added bonus, he has a career 2.66 ERA/0.93 WHIP against the Cubs.)
I mean, I’m sure his FIPPERTY/FAPPERTY ratio has shown a decline over the past seven years, and I imagine his SHLOOPY-DOOPY percentages are off the charts, indicating certain doom to any team that signs him, likely due to locust infestation.
I guess…I don’t understand how a Brewer fan could be unhappy with this signing. Sure. maybe he’ll regress some, and show his age, and get bitten by a rabid locust. Maybe he’ll only be mediocre. But you know, someone has to close, and we just signed the all-time saves leader who had a 1.04 WHIP last season to a reasonably priced, one year contract - one that presumably allows us enough cash to sign the starting pitcher we need. What more could you want? You’d rather spend $26.5 million for three seasons of Brian FUentes? Or a closing platoon of Jorge Julio and Todd Coffey?
This sort of pessimism in January boggles the mind.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on
Jan 8, 2009 11:55 PM CST
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Speaking of pessimism, the only fans I know unhappy with it are the ones who believe the Brewers are contenders to win the NL next year and think an extra home run or three from him will mean the difference between a pennant and nothing.
by HRF on
Jan 9, 2009 12:29 AM CST
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Good or bad
This is the kind of offseason we’ve come to expect from Melvin. Sign an old guy who may have a little something left, make a few runs at top players to make the fans think he’s trying, and then settle into “small market/we can only do so much” defensive posture for the rest of of the offseason.
I’m personally getting tired of the conflicting types of articles being run by the JS. On the one hand, the Brewers are doing great, having sold more season tickets than ever, and negotiating new deals with several sponsors, and of course the new retail store is teh awesome. On the other hand, the economy is bad, so we won’t be signing any top free agents, and we aren’t going to fix the scoreboard, either. It gives me the sense that Attanassio is in cash-grab mode, since his investment business is probably in need of all the capital it can lay its hands on.
Oh, I’m sorry, but we were talking about Hoffman. Yeah, he’s a better bet to close than Jorge Julio, but that comparison really just ignores that the Brewers had no interest in paying a guy like Brian Fuentes, which we’re all supposed to have forgotten by now.
Fuentes gets $8.5 million next season and $9 million in 2010. There’s a club option for $9 million in 2011.
Yeah, but Hoffman was a great choice.
by Marty McSuperFly on
Jan 9, 2009 6:01 AM CST
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Unfortunately, FUentes didn't want to come here, apparently
I’d have been all for it if he could’ve been had for that contract. I think it would’ve taken substantially more to get him to come to Milwaukee.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
by Jordan M on
Jan 9, 2009 9:38 AM CST
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Neither did Hoffman, apparently
The team, the media and the agents all blow smoke at us during their bargaining.
by Marty McSuperFly on
Jan 9, 2009 12:57 PM CST
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Rec'd for the Melvin/Hoffman comments.
But not for the Attanasio stuff which looks like a pretty baseless accusation to me. If he was in cash grab mode they wouldn’t have bothered to sign Hoffman at all and Fielder probably would have been shipped out by now.
I have an unreasonable dislike of Bill Hall.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on
Jan 9, 2009 6:20 PM CST
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I don't entirely agree
He HAS been showing signs of decline. Before last year…
His K rate has gone from 11 to 8.73 to 8.43 to 7.14 to 6.91.
His K/BB rate has gone from 6.63 to 4.50 to 3.85 to 2.92.
His FIP has gone from 2.04 to 3.03 to 2.74 to 2.50 to 3.46 to 2.94 to 3.99.
It isn’t across the board, but the signs are there (as expected for someone his age).
Now, the big question is what the hell happened last year? His FIP was way up but his K rate jumped way back up while his BB rate went down. Why?
It is just a puzzling line…did he make one last adjustment that the league has not adjusted to?
We do know this…
1. Batters were swinging at a lot more pitches out of the strike zone.
2. They were making better contact on pitches outside the zone.
3. They made less contact at pitches IN the strike zone.
I just can’t wrap my mind around all of the conflicting variables. Were guys just swinging at more pitches because they wanted to fatten up on his diminished stuff? Did he come up with something that added more movement? I just don’t know.
However, there is enough there to worry IMO.
by badgermaniac on
Jan 8, 2009 11:30 PM CST
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Now, the big question is what the hell happened last year? His FIP was way up but his K rate jumped way back up while his BB rate went down. Why?
His FIP was up because of 8 home runs. His expected FIP was 3.5 given usual home run rates, and his tERA was a little lower than that.
In addition, there just isn’t much to conclude from a sample of 50 innings. Random stuff can happen. You go with the bigger sample and assume he’s going to pitch like he always has, and penalize for age.
Scored three times and detonated an indisputable in four visits to the batting box.
by Jordan M on
Jan 9, 2009 9:41 AM CST
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Random luck (ie. home runs) does not explain the K rate that came out of nowhere after a very steady decline. Many of his metrics were just all over the place, as noted.
by badgermaniac on
Jan 9, 2009 7:57 PM CST
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Just FWIW,
Signing Hoffman is still infinitely better than giving away DeRosa and signing Milton Bradley as a National League team…
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on
Jan 8, 2009 11:09 PM CST
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I’m hoping we see a lot of Sean Marshall in that 5 spot in the rotation.
by ol Pete on
Jan 8, 2009 11:29 PM CST
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I like the deal. One year, doesn’t tie anything up for 2010 and beyond and is an effective stop gap. For a negligible cost the Brewers are a little bit better and the future isn’t hemorrhaged a cent.
by HRF on
Jan 8, 2009 5:17 PM CST
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2010???
Are the Brewers going to make a run at LeBron James?
"You are only a success at the moment that you do a successful act"
-Tex Winter
by stork02 on
Jan 9, 2009 12:38 PM CST
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D-wade will be available
I just sit back and root for the taser
by Hyatt on
Jan 9, 2009 12:49 PM CST
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Hell's Bells
No matter what you think of the deal, it will be pretty cool to hear/see this at Miller Park this season:
by oconnobe on
Jan 8, 2009 5:34 PM CST
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good stuff
now they just need to sign Greg Vaughn so we can hear “Nutin’ But a G Thang” too.
September 15: Not a bad little Monday
by molitorfan on
Jan 8, 2009 6:49 PM CST
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Bill James says 41 saves.
I just can’t see that happening.
How far will this one fly?
by Rendezvous on
Jan 8, 2009 6:16 PM CST
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I love this move..
$6M paying for 1.2~1.5 wins. He should reach that easy enough.
Really Classy guy,
Always 1,000 free tickets if it all goes pear-shaped.
by Braun Holio on
Jan 9, 2009 12:39 AM CST
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
43 | 38 | .530 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
42 | 38 | .525 | 0.5 | Lost 3 |
|
Chicago
|
39 | 38 | .506 | 2 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
39 | 38 | .506 | 2 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
38 | 39 | .493 | 3 | Won 2 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
36 | 43 | .455 | 6 | Lost 2 |
(updated 7.3.2009 at 4:31 PM CDT)
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