Brew Crew Ball: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: SB Nation NFL Power Rankings for Week 11

Probably misusing MLE: Where could the Brewers have done better?

Looking for some idle speculation on the first Brewer-free Sunday afternoon since February? Here's something to play with.

Because of Jeff's brilliant work over at Minor League Splits, we can take any Brewer above rookie ball's minor league stats and get their MLE (major league equivalent), a baseline estimate of how they would have performed in the major leagues this season.

So without further adieu, here's a look at how Brewer minor leaguers might have performed in the majors in 2009, and how it compares to the players the Brewers actually used in their place.

Catcher

Player Team (Level) Avg/OBP/SLG MLE A/O/S MLE OPS
Jonathan Lucroy Huntsville (AA) .267/.377/.416 .219/.307/.327 .634
Angel Salome Nashville (AAA) .288/.338/.420 .249/.285/.342 .627
J.R. Hopf Huntsville (AA) .249/.318/.363 .206/.258/.291 .549
Corey Kemp Wisconsin (A-) .269/.364/.379 .182/.239/.245 .484
Carlos Corporan Nashville (AAA) .217/.262/.285 .192/.230/.250 .480

 

Brewers used: Jason Kendall, who hit .241/.331/.305 (.636 OPS), and Mike Rivera, who hit .228/.326/.342 (.668 OPS)

This is likely the most obvious position where you can make a solid argument that one of the minor leaguers should have played over the guy the Brewers trotted out there. Kendall had a nice finish to 2009, batting .271/.370/.391 after August 7, but still only out OPS'ed the hypothetical performance of Jonathan Lucroy by two points, with Angel Salome not far behind him.

Beyond Lucroy and Salome, it's a long way down to the next level, though. Corey Kemp's 2009 performance was pretty impressive in Wisconsin, but he's easily the third best catcher in the system above rookie ball right now, and he's still a long way away.

Follow the jump for the other positions!

Star-divide

First Base

Player Team (Level) Avg/OBP/SLG MLE A/O/S MLE OPS
Joe Koshansky Nashville (AAA) .218/.319/.441 .189/.267/.358 .625
Erick Almonte Nashville (AAA) .295/.367/.365 .253/.307/.301 .608
Kevin Melillo Huntsville (AA) .249/.344/.392 .207/.280/.309 .589
Steffan Wilson Brevard Co. (A+) .272/.352/.420 .208/.266/.308 .574
Brock Kjeldgaard Wisconsin (A-) .248/.340/.454 .167/.221/.278 .499

 

Clearly, none of these guys are even comparable to Prince Fielder, who posted a 1.014 OPS this season.

In fact, the complete lack of a viable first baseman in the upper levels of the minors is a little startling. If something were to happen to Fielder, the best internal options to replace him would almost certainly be in the big leagues now: Mat Gamel and/or Casey McGehee.

With that said, Steffan Wilson's performance in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League is notable, and Brock Kjeldgaard had a decent offensive season overshadowed by the fact that he led his league in strikeouts for the second straight season.

Second Base

Player Team (Level) Avg/OBP/SLG MLE A/O/S MLE OPS
Hernan Iribarren Nashville (AAA) .307/.360/.396 .269/.310/.335 .645
Shane Justis Huntsville (AA) .271/.339/.376 .225/.278/.309 .587
Eric Farris Brevard Co. (A+) .302/.344/.388 .238/.270/.304 .574
Brett Lawrie Wisconsin (A-) .275/.342/.438 .192/.232/.282 .514

 

These are the only four players above rookie ball who played a full season with second base as their primary position. The Brewers used Rickie Weeks (.857 OPS) and Felipe Lopez (.810 OPS) primarily at second, and obviously there's no comparison.

The upside is pretty low among the upper level guys: Iribarren had a nice season in AAA, but likely projects as little more than a utility/backup type in the majors. 2009 was Justis' first season as a Brewer. He's 26 years old in AA.

With that said, there's a lot of upside in the lower levels. Eric Farris had a very good season for Brevard County, and added 70 steals in 76 attempts. With that said, he's been leapfrogged in the organization by Brett Lawrie, who continues his rapid ascent toward the big leagues.

Third Base

Player Team (Level) Avg/OBP/SLG MLE A/O/S MLE OPS
Adam Heether Nashville (AAA) .300/.398/.506 .256/.334/.409 .743
Mat Gamel Nashville (AAA) .281/.368/.479 .242/.309/.388 .697
Taylor Green Huntsville (AA) .267/.344/.372 .220/.276/.308 .584
Zelous Wheeler Brevard Co. (A+) .263/.365/.383 .199/.273/.283 .556
Juan Sanchez Wisconsin (A-) .249/.308/.318 .172/.207/.221 .428

 

The Brewers used Casey McGehee (.859 OPS), Craig Counsell (.766 OPS), Bill Hall (.606 OPS) and Mat Gamel (.760 OPS) at third.

Behold Adam Heether. While most of the talk about Brewer minor leaguers this season revolved around guys like Alcides Escobar, Gamel, Salome, Lucroy and Lawrie, Heether quietly outhit all of them. And while Craig Counsell had an incredible and unlikely bounce back season, Heether's MLE line is nearly comparable. He also played five positions this season to keep his bat in the lineup while Mat Gamel played third.

Behind him and Gamel, Taylor Green had a season to forget, and Zelous Wheeler's ability to get on base made him valuable in the Manatees' lineup. Sanchez was one of the last players drafted in the minor league phase of last year's Rule 5 draft, and played all over the diamond for Wisconsin and Brevard Co. despite never having played above the Gulf Coast League.

Shortstop

Player Team (Level) Avg/OBP/SLG MLE A/O/S MLE OPS
Alcides Escobar Nashville (AAA) .298/.351/.411 .259/.301/.345 .646
Sergio Miranda Brevard Co. (A+) .297/.355/.380 .229/.272/.292 .564
Yohannis Perez Huntsville (AA) .262/.314/.353 .221/.259/.287 .546
Michael Garciaparra Huntsville (AA) .216/.302/.261 .184/.249/.223 .472
Brent Brewer Brevard Co. (A+) .226/.290/.291 .176/.224/.231 .455

 

The Brewers used J.J. Hardy (.659 OPS) and Alcides Escobar (.701 OPS)

Alcides Escobar's AAA performance and J.J. Hardy's service time status combined to be just enough to get Escobar into the big leagues for good back in August, and we'll see what happens from there.

Meanwhile, there's not much in the system behind Escobar. The next viable shortstop prospect behind him may very well be 2009 draft pick Josh Prince, who hit .263/.373/.313 between Helena and Wisconsin this season and stole 38 bases in 50 attempts. The Brewers have to be close to running out of patience with Brent Brewer, who repeated Brevard Co. in 2009 and was actually significantly worse in his second attempt.

Outfielders

Player Team (Level) Avg/OBP/SLG MLE A/O/S MLE OPS
Brendan Katin Nashville (AAA) .244/.306/.506 .214/.262/.413 .675
Drew Anderson Huntsville (AA) .290/.368/.439 .241/.303/.350 .653
Logan Schafer Brevard Co. (A+) .312/.374/.441 .242/.288/.335 .623
Caleb Gindl Brevard Co. (A+) .284/.366/.469 .217/.277/.345 .622
Adam Stern Huntsville (AA) .280/.350/.374 .233/.288/.303 .591
John Raburn Huntsville (AA) .263/.370/.345 .218/.301/.267 .568
Chuck Caufield Huntsville (AA) .248/.312/.337 .210/.259/.280 .539
Lee Haydel Brevard Co. (A+) .278/.307/.343 .219/.241/.262 .503
Freddy Parejo Huntsville (AA) .239/.280/.314 .204/.237/.259 .496
Michael Vass Wisconsin (A-) .240/.307/.384 .164/.204/.249 .453

 

The Brewers used Ryan Braun (.938 OPS), Mike Cameron (.795), Corey Hart (.753), Frank Catalanotto (.728) and Jody Gerut (.672) in the outfield this season. And if they'd had to dig much farther into the organizational depth, it likely would have been a problem. Brendan Katin can mash a mistake, but his exceptionally low plate discipline (35 walks, 164 strikeouts, .305 OBP) will likely keep him from ever being a serious prospect.

Meanwhile, the top two outfielders in the Brewer system might both have played for Brevard County this season, as Logan Schafer won the FSL batting title and Caleb Gindl provided the power behind the Brewers' most successful affiliate this season. Among the top prospects, Schafer is also the only true center fielder: Adam Stern also played primarily in center this season, but was terrible defensively.

Lorenzo Cain, meanwhile, had a terrible 2009 season, and didn't even make the top ten to appear on this list. Before suffering a knee injury and after returning, Cain posted a .213/.287/.317 line between multiple levels this season, posting a .448 MLE OPS. Hopefully Cain reports to camp healthy next spring and prepared for a huge bounce back season.

0 recs  |  Comment 5 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Heether would be an interesting interview right now

I’d assume he’s gone if we re-sign Craig Counsell. If Counsell signs elsewhere, though…

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Oct 11, 2009 9:09 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I think it depends on whether or not Gamel/McGehee gets traded.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Oct 11, 2009 6:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think he might be the next Iribarren

Great AAA player, versatile, might be the first guy called up in case of an injury and 3-4 positions, but not quite highly viewed enough to ever stick somewhere above Nashville.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by KLSnow on Oct 11, 2009 7:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great compilation

I would’ve appreciated an overall summary of the Brewers anticipated minor league system next year. It doesn’t look like the Brewers had much past Gamel and Escobar, but I have almost no knowledge of “rating” minor league systems so many they’re still in okay shape.

Heether’s lines look good, but his BABIP in 2009 was up at .350. I’m assuming the minors has a higher BABIP, in general, though it’s still up from his 2008 .328 BABIP. Do we worry about him being 27 already? He could be a case of being held back at least a year by the guys in front of him, but even “giving back” that year, he’d be a 27-year old rookie next year.

That said, I’d love to have someone else to look forward to bringing up next year. His LHP/RHP splits are good and it’s nice to have someone that’s got enough power to be a threat, albeit not a likelihood, to go deep.

by ecocd on Oct 11, 2009 10:09 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Escobar & Gamel MLE vs Reality

I’m only vaguely familiar with MLEs so I have some questions. Both Gamel and Escobar outperformed their MLE OPS once they got to the Big Leagues. Is there anything to take from that? Is there a range +/- where most players would fall into the projected MLEs? And if so did Gamel and Escobar do that? Did each guy even have enough at bats at both the majors and minors to make it an effective comparison?

Blow Cubs Blow! Blow Cubs Blow! Hey Milwaukee, what do you say? The Cubs are going to lose today.

by RahRahBullCrap on Oct 11, 2009 11:28 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Brew Crew Ball is dedicated to providing a friendly atmosphere for intelligent Brewer conversation. Click here to view our Posting Guide and Community Guidelines.
Start posting about the Brewers »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Rumorville: John Halama?
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Rumorville: Todd Wellemeyer?
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Rumorville: Derek Lowe/Corey Hart
Nohuddleblueew9_small
Question regarding revenue sharing
Small
All in on Low Risk/High Reward Guys
Box_small
Question: Rule 5 Draft Protection
Newavatar_small
Speculationville: Edwin Jackson/Curtis Granderson
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Rumorville: Kelly Shoppach
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Rumorville: John Lackey
U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small
Braden Looper Watch (update 1)

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Featured Poll

Poll
Who won the J.J. Hardy/Carlos Gomez trade?

  525 votes | Results

79 - 82

11

Won 3

1

NL Central Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
St. Louis 91 71 .561 0 Lost 6
Chicago 83 78 .515 7.5 Lost 1
Milwaukee 80 82 .493 11 Won 3
Cincinnati 78 84 .481 13 Won 2
Houston 74 88 .456 17 Lost 3
Pittsburgh 62 99 .385 28.5 Lost 2

(updated 11.20.2009 at 4:30 PM CST)

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Infielder Adam Heether...returned home from the Venezuelan Winter League...
Anyone ever notice this? -- Did they make a corrected card? I am pretty sure there is a conspiracy behind this.
Authentic Jersey. I was wondering if it would be worth it to get a Fielder...
Brewers discussed Corey Hart for Derek Lowe
Mystery three-way trade team?
Keith Law's take on the Brewer's plans (he's not a fan)
Got this in the mail today from my Season Ticket Account Exec.

"Tim -
I wanted to thank you for renewing again this year.  Your continued support is very important & much appreciated.  Keep in touch and let me know if you need anything else.

Go Brewers!
Chris

P.S. If you know anybody else interested in a ticket plan, please let me know."
Washburn's Interested in the Brewers.
Milwaukees First All-Black Baseball Team
Autographs through the Mail: Jonathan Lucroy

Sent:11/5/09

Received:11/16/09

+ New FanShot All FanShots >


Moderators

U8xcikxxuei8lvi_small roguejim

Mordecai_brown_small Jeff Sackmann

Newavatar_small KLSnow

Box_small TheJay

Communist_party_small Jordan M

Contributors

Dsci0355_small kirbir

Picture_069_small tristarscoop

Dsc01174_small BrewHaHeather

Rubie_edited-1_small Rubie Q

Hikaru_50_small morineko

X1pxoywqu4sjf73f7drxq2lmqys7mzsyx7pa9necepiffk_ewcuwmuazb-o17ukmbriclcdkn4lk-4xposaawiq4j8hzdsccpjwatqpz2o2p-i0nnqjlyt7pmytaycsaknszvaktpshtcu9sjle1qchlw_1__small NoahJ

Hulk_buddy-icon_small Fatter than Joey