Results from the 2009 Over/Under Contest
by KLSnow on Oct 13, 2009 1:00 PM CDT
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22 comments
Back in March, I asked you a series of questions related to your expectations for the 2009 Brewers, and collected the results. Today, after spending a few hours gathering, sorting and re-sorting the spreadsheet, I'm prepared to announce the winner. Bear in mind, all scores are out of 30:
| Predictor | Score |
| Dionysus0 | 22 |
| Saltire | 21 |
| Heckman8 | 21 |
| BrewCityBub | 21 |
| BacktoCali | 20 |
And, embarassed as I am to post them, here's the bottom of the standings:
| Predictor | Score |
| KLSnow | 8 |
| Braun Holio | 9 |
| stork02 | 10 |
| 5 others tied | 12 |
I'm actually pretty impressed that I managed to do this poorly. In a contest where a flipped coin would have (on average) scored about 15, I only managed to get slightly more than half of that, and at least 4 questions less than 50 of the 52 other entries.
The consensus pick was the correct pick in 15 of the 30 questions, but the average score was slightly better than 50%, at 15.98.
So, congratulations to our winner, and to literally everyone else who played for beating me. Follow the jump for a question by question look at the results. Some of the races turned out much closer than any of us likely expected.
HITTERS
Ryan Braun's OPS: .945
Consensus answer: Under, 63%
Correct answer: Under. Braun was over .945 as late as August 29, but a rough start to September dropped it all the way to .915 on September 25, and his late charge only lifted it back to .937.
Prince Fielder HR: 39.5
Consensus answer: Over, 56%
Correct answer: Over. Fielder hit his 40th home run on September 20, and proceeded to hit six more in the Crew's final 13 games to finish with 46, the second highest total in franchise history.
Rickie Weeks' batting average: .245
Consensus answer: Over, 81%
Correct answer: Over. Weeks played his final game of the season on May 17, and his 0-for-1 that day dropped his average to .272.
Jason Kendall starts: 134.5
Consensus answer: Under, 81%
Correct answer: Under, but just barely. Kendall appeared in 134 games this season, although a couple of them weren't starts.
Mike Rivera ABs: 119.5
Consensus answer: Over, 77%
Correct answer: Under. Rivera finished the season with 114 at bats, slightly below the mark. He's now picked up just 331 at bats in four seasons as a Brewer. This is the first time the consensus opinion has been wrong.
J.J. Hardy slugging: .470
Consensus answer: Over, 69%
Correct answer: Under, and it wasn't even close. Hardy's .357 slugging percentage was the lowest by any Brewer regular not named Jason Kendall. He would have needed to hit 12 more home runs to bring it up to .470, which would have more than doubled his season total.
Bill Hall games: 119.5
Consensus answer: Under, 52%
Correct answer: Under. Hall played in 76 games before being designated for assignment, and appeared in 34 more as a Mariner for a season total of 110.
Mat Gamel games: 24.5
Consensus answer: Under, 62%
Correct answer: Over. While Gamel played sparingly, his early callup and long stretch on the roster this season meant he appeared in his 25th game on June 11, and finished the season with 61 appearances.
Mike Cameron OPS: .800
Consensus answer: Under, 54%
Correct answer: Under. By batting .200 over the last 17 games of the season, Cameron lowered his OPS from .801 to .795, finishing just short. He was at .800 as late as game #161, but went 0-for-4 on the season's final day.
Corey Hart walks: 31.5
Consensus answer: Over, 77%
Correct answer: Over. Hart walked 13 times in April en route to a career high 43.
Brewers with 30+ HR: 2.5
Consensus answer: Under, 56%
Correct answer: Under. Braun and Fielder each surpassed 30, but Cameron was the next closest with 24.
Brewer batters with 100+ strikeouts: 5.5
Consensus answer: Over, 52%
Correct answer: Under. Cameron, Fielder and Braun all passed 100, but they were the only three. Full seasons from Corey Hart (92 in 417 ABs), Rickie Weeks (39 in 147 ABs) and Bill Hall (72 in 214 ABs) almost certainly would have done it.
PITCHERS
Seth McClung starts: 14.5
Consensus answer: Under, 71%
Correct answer: Under. Many of us expected McClung to be the first man added to the rotation, but he only ended up making two starts.
Chris Capuano starts: 1.5
Consensus answer: Under, 54%
Correct answer: Under. Capuano didn't actually pitch in a game at any level until August, and never pitched above Helena this season.
Brewer pitchers to start a game: 8.5
Consensus answer: Over, 83%
Correct answer: Over, but just barely. Chris Narveson's starts in September made him the ninth Brewer pitcher to start a game.
Among the group of Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra and Braden Looper, pitchers who will pitch 160 or more innings: 3.5
Consensus answer: Under, 52%
Correct answer: Under. Gallardo, Looper and Suppan all did it, but Parra finished 20 innings short.
Manny Parra ERA: 4.20
Consensus answer: Under, 52%
Correct answer: Over. Not only did more than half of us get it wrong, more than half of us got it wrong by over 2 full runs. By allowing five earned runs in 2.2 innings in his last start, Parra pushed his 2009 ERA up to 6.36.
Jeff Suppan ERA: 4.90
Consensus answer: Under, 71%
Correct answer: Over. Jeff Suppan posted a 5.29 ERA, making 2009 the fourth straight season it's gone up. He's on pace for a 5.73 ERA next season.
Trevor Hoffman saves: 29.5
Consensus answer: Under, 52%
Correct answer: Over. Finally, some good news. Hoffman significantly outperformed most of our expectations en route to 37 saves.
Mitch Stetter innings: 49.5
Consensus answer: Over, 67%
Correct answer: Under. Stetter made 71 appearances but pitched just 45 innings.
David Riske innings: 49.5
Consensus answer: Over, 52%
Correct answer: Under. Riske pitched just one inning before being shut down and eventually having Tommy John surgery.
Pitchers to appear in a game: 19.5
Consensus answer: Over, 88%
Correct answer: Over. David Weathers became the 20th pitcher to appear in a game when he was acquired, the Brewers used 23 overall.
Brewer leader in wins: 14.5
Consensus answer: Over, 71%
Correct answer: Under, but Braden Looper made it close with 14.
Brewer leader in losses: 12.5
Consensus answer: Over, 63%
Correct answer: Under, but Yovani Gallardo and Jeff Suppan each finished with 12.
TEAM
Team wins: 84.5
Consensus answer: Over, 63%
Correct answer: Under, of course.
Finish in NL Central: 2.5
Consensus answer: Under, 71%
Correct answer: Over.
Playoff appearances: .5
Consensus answer: Under, 73%
Correct answer: Under.
Brewer All Stars: 2.5
Consensus answer: Under, 52%
Correct answer: Over. Braun, Fielder and Hoffman
Runs scored: 800
Consensus answer: Over, 75%
Correct answer: Under. The Brewers scored 785 runs, which was still the third most in the NL, but not as many as we expected.
Runs allowed: 750
Consensus answer: Over, 79%
Correct answer: Over. The Brewers allowed 818 runs, second most in the NL.
0 recs |
22 comments
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wow KL
you are a horrible prognosticator
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
by Hyatt on Oct 13, 2009 1:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
No kidding.
As Anthony Witrado would say: “Ur real dumb LOL.”
by Rubie Q on Oct 13, 2009 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
3 wrong on hitters, 6 wrong on pitchers, 1 wrong on team
so…10 wrong; or 20 right out of 30
I guess you have to not include me because I posted about a third of the way into the first game of a season that was 162 games long, or 0.2% into the season (insert rolling of eyes emoticon here).
At least Saltire has company in a regular that did well equal or better than backtocali (Dionysus is around a fair amount too).
by PagsBrewCrew on Oct 13, 2009 1:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I woud like to say that I gave this some thought
but I think I took about 5mins to fill it out going usually instinct.
I agree with Zeyes below though I think I only got 20 right.
KL did a good job setting the lines alot of times it looks like we split almost 50/50.
by Saltire on Oct 14, 2009 5:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
I’m showing backtocali at 19 correct and Saltire at 20…
15 for me; no surprise there, I’m always decidedly mediocre in these things.
by Zeyes on Oct 13, 2009 1:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I counted last week
And thought I had 20, I didnt keep track of which ones….
by backtocali on Oct 13, 2009 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The finish in the division is wrong above
I had under (finish below 2nd) and KL has it listed above as over.
by backtocali on Oct 13, 2009 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"(under means second place or better)"
by Mykenk on Oct 13, 2009 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hate it when people challenge me to argue something and then don't respond to my argument.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Oct 13, 2009 8:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sometimes
even if they are making a decent point, its mature to walk away from an argument with a child.
by backtocali on Oct 13, 2009 9:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Congratulations.
Now you’re not just wrong, you’re condescending and cowardly.
Personally, I don't give a crap about Brett Favre.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 14, 2009 7:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aaaand goodbye for now
I had such a nice streak of never having to moderate anyone going…
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Oct 14, 2009 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
dont sell yourself too short KL
you made good over/under settings if the average was about 50%. I’m assuming you didn’t get these all from a betting site, as many wouldn’t be readily available
by marty22 on Oct 13, 2009 1:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
I think I did pretty well predicting outcomes to produce interesting questions. I nearly pegged questions like Cameron’s OPS, Kendall and Rivera’s playing time, etc. I just guessed wrong when given the coin flip regarding whether they’d go over or under my predictions.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by KLSnow on Oct 13, 2009 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I got 16
So that makes me perfectly average. Disappointing. I was 2nd overall in the HalosHeaven contest this year. Guess I need to stop watching the Angels and follow the Brewers more closely. Maybe after the playoffs end….
by Brew Angel on Oct 13, 2009 4:47 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Braun Holio rules!
I don’t have time to come here for 3 months and I come back to this.
by Braun Holio on Oct 14, 2009 6:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice work
Good job KLSnow…you made the vast majority of these questions incredibly close. I don’t think I participated but I’m gonna have to try it out next season. Challenging stuff.
by Tick on Oct 14, 2009 7:45 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 2.10.2010 at 4:46 AM CST)
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