Speculationville: JJ Hardy to the Rats

by roguejim on Oct 20, 2009 12:26 PM CDT Comment 33 comments

Granted, it's a moot point, as we've apparently already traded JJ Hardy to the Royals for Zach Grienke. Just the same, while we're waiting for the World Series to end so the trade can be consummated, it might be fun to think about where else JJ might have gone.

I think the Pirates might be a good fit, for a few reasons.

The biggest reason why I could see Hardy as a Buc-o is because, well, the Pirates seem to have no one to play the middle infield. They traded Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson, getting 2B/SS Ronnie Cedeno in return. How do Wilson and Cedeno stack up?

Wilson was a little better defensively, but Cedeno is much younger, less expensive and just as good with the bat.

I love this quote, if only because Jack Wilson was offensively offensive (career OPS .684), and Cedeno is even worse (career OPS .626). So, the Rats have gotten worse offensively and defensively. But much younger!

At second base, the straits are a little more dire, as the Rats are experimenting with rightfielder Delwyn Young (53 career games at 2nd) and third baseman Andy LaRoche (3 career games at second). At least each of them OPSed a smidge more than .700 last season, which is a step in the right direction. Together with Cedeno, this could be a disastrous middle infield.

In the two seasons before last season's mysterious breakdown, Hardy had averaged .800 OPS and 25 home runs, and is a better defender than even Jack Wilson. They could start Hardy at short and have a three-headed chimera of Cedeno, Delwyn, and LaRoche at second. I call it "LaDeleno."

And what would the Brewers get in return? If there's one thing the Rats always seem to have, it's good (though not great) starting pitching. Currently, they have three guys who would easily make our starting rotation: Ross Ohlendorf, Zach Duke, and Paul Maholm. Ohlendorf would likely be the top prize, as he posted an ERA under 4 last season and a WHIP of 1.23. (By comparison, of our starters, only YoGa had a WHIP under 1.47 last season, which is absolutely horrible.) This is his third team since being drafted in 2004, though it's hard to image a WHIP that low being a fluke. Zach Duke is only 26, and had the best season of his career last year, posting a 4.06 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He's a lefty, so maybe he's started putting things together. Paul Maholm was decidedly mediocre last season, but posted 3.71/1.28 numbers in 200+ innings in 2008.

There are lots of reasons why a trade like this wouldn't work, such as how valuable decent pitching is right now. Still, the Pirates just don't have much offense right now, and that seems to be a more pressing need than pitching. I think Hardy in Pittsburgh makes a lot of sense --- to me, it's only a question of what the return would be.

0 recs | Comment 33 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Why?

Do you think the Pirates would trade within then division, again? I know they did with the Cubs at the trade deadline, but still. Also, experts have been talking about Zach Duke’s potential, for about as long as they’ve been talking about Rickie Week’s potential.

At least Rickie showed flashes of brilliance last season before he became injured. I haven’t seen many flashes for Duke.

by abdgrfan on Oct 20, 2009 12:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Didn't Duke make the All-Star team this past year?

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Oct 20, 2009 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Named as a replacement.

So sort of.

by NoahJ on Oct 20, 2009 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pirates

Why would they want Hardy? They won’t be contending in 2010 or 2011. They won’t be able to keep him in free agency unless he keeps hitting like he did this year and then…why? I guess I don’t get why they would give up pitching (especially guys who would be around longer than Hardy) to score 650 runs rather than 600.

Sign Corky Miller

by TheJay on Oct 20, 2009 5:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

They might not

Then again, they traded away one of their few good players in Freddy Sanchez, and a fan favorite in Wilson. I’m sure they’d like SOME people to attend the games between now and 2012.

Besides, Maholm and Duke are FAs in 2012, per Cot’s.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Oct 20, 2009 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

interesting thought.

Pirates average about, what, 400 people at their games? JJ Hardy brings out about 3000 women to each game.

Pirate games will have very interesting ratios.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Oct 20, 2009 5:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hardy is a FA after 2011

So is Duke, incidentally (Cot’s hasn’t updated service time to include 2009 yet). I don’t think Hardy would make enough of an impact on the offense and team to make people decide to go to Pirates games. Maybe if acquiring him was part of some big run at 81 wins, but that doesn’t seem to be that front office’s style.

Sign Corky Miller

by TheJay on Oct 20, 2009 5:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

because he is dreamy.....

Why would they want Hardy? They won’t be contending in 2010 or 2011. They won’t be able to keep him in free agency unless he keeps hitting like he did this year and then…why

I could see the Pirates making a move for Hardy — They probably could buy low on him, and then flip him for better stuff later. I don’t think it is about W/L — but it could be more about generating some prospects down the road.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Oct 22, 2009 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Of course it would be great

to get one solid starter for Hardy, but who’s going to give up pitching for a big question mark? Maybe it boils down to who’s more desparate?

I see Hardy in a multi-player trade, with him and another “expendable” for one decent starter.

Mostly I see Hardy gone. He needs a fresh start.

"At times I'm emotional," --Ryan Braun, 7/7/09

by heybatterbatter on Oct 20, 2009 11:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Question mark for a question mark

Paul Maholm was decidedly mediocre last season, but posted 3.71/1.28 numbers in 200+ innings in 2008.

In the two seasons before last season’s mysterious breakdown, Hardy had averaged .800 OPS and 25 home runs,

Looks like a match to me.

by ecocd on Oct 21, 2009 9:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would throw them J.J. for Maholm in a second

He had a down year but who cares if he could be our ace next year

by Donald Driver on Oct 26, 2009 10:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

As a Pirates fan

I can’t say this enough: I would gladly trade you Ohlendorf for Hardy straight up. Honestly, before finding this thread I would have thought a Brewers’ fan would ridicule the suggestion.

by epoc on Oct 21, 2009 7:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Most would, actually

RJ likes to start rumors. Evaluation of Ohlendorf changes a lot when you look beyond his ERA.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Oct 21, 2009 8:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rumorville: Jordan is the screen name for the Happy Youngster

I don’t think “most” Brewer fans would ridicule it actually - not given the value of starting pitching right now, and our lack of it. How much is a good player coming off a down year worth? How about a pitcher who, out of nowhere, has a phenomenal year?

Only a few posts upstream, TheJay makes the point that the Rats wouldn’t be interested in Hardy in the first place, given how far they are from contending. Tough crowd!

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Oct 21, 2009 10:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No meanness intended

But the 4.72 FIP, High 4 range tERA, high 76% strand rate, and .265 BABIP allowed pretty much tell me to evaluate him as about a 4.75 ERA pitcher. I was just trying to point out to our visiting Pirates fan that we might not be in a total consensus about trading JJ for Ohlendorf.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Oct 22, 2009 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, no doubt

For one, there’s never total consensus around here on anything. For two, we’re also talking about someone who’s had one great year, totally out of the blue, so yeah, there’s plenty of reason to be suspicious.

Just the same, I’m a little more optimistic about him, if only for one reason: the walks. In reading the reports that Fangraphs accumulated on him, they all pretty much say the same thing: good “stuff,” including a 94 MPH fastball, but unimpressive strikeout/walk rates. True to form, before last season, he’s issued 33 walks in about 69 major-league IP, which is awfully high. He’s established a pattern of giving up more hits than IP, so yes, the fact that he had fewer hits/IP last season suggests that the low BABIP might be at work, even in front of a not-so-good Rat D. However, he also gave up only 53 walks in 176 IP last season, a BB/IP rate that, though not spectacular, beats that if our other starters, sometimes handily.

I don’t know if pitchers can “luck” into few walks over the course of a season. If he has good (if not great) stuff PLUS has figured out not to walk people, AND is cheap to boot, that would be pretty good return for Hardy. It’s hard to say, though, with players just getting used to playing in the majors if a season like last year was an outlier or a sign of things to come.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Oct 22, 2009 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait a minute...

there’s never total consensus around here on anything

That’s it. Which of you has been enjoying Jason Kendall in the Brewers line-up? Show your faces!

by NoahJ on Oct 22, 2009 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looking at it closer

I wonder if it was a “toning down the stuff” situation. In the past three years, his walk rate has gone down, but his strikeout rate has also gone down, and his average fastball went from 94 to 92 to 91.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Oct 22, 2009 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you were a TV commentator

you’d be contractually obliged to say that the decrease in strikeouts and improvement in overall numbers means he was “learning how to pitch.” :)

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Oct 22, 2009 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even if he maintains last year’s walk rate, he’s still terrible. His 4.72 FIP factors in the walk rate. Also, his average fastball was around 91, though he had a stretch late in the season where it jumped to 94 or so. He doesn’t have good stuff. He gets negative value from his fastball/changeup combo; his only plus pitch is the slider. I don’t know why I’m trying to talk you out of wanting to trade Hardy for him, though . . .

by epoc on Oct 22, 2009 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, luckily for me

I don’t really get to make personnel decisions.

So, to sum up: (1) despite their lack of offense in the middle infield, the Pirates would have no reason to trade for someone like Hardy, but (2) if they did, trading Ohlendorf (the Rats’ best starter from last season) for Hardy would be woefully inadequate. This is an interesting thread.

Even if I were a proponent of FIP (I’m not), a 4.70 FIP would be just about a #3 starter…under team control for several years, and for cheap. We’d likely do better, but that doesn’t sound so awful to me.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Oct 22, 2009 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd probably do Maholm for Hardy

with a few other parts. I think we can do better for Hardy though.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Oct 22, 2009 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I could see that

Then again, Maholm has had only one good year as well.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Oct 22, 2009 5:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

Even if you’re only looking at ERA, he’s thrown 200 innings the past two years with ERAs of 3.7 and 4.4. Both pretty solid. And looking at skill metrics I’d put him around a 4.2-4.3 true talent level. And he’s a lefty.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Oct 22, 2009 6:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm confused.

Once you establish what his true talent level is, what does it matter if he is a lefty? If one pitcher has a 4.2 true talent ERA and is right handed and another pitcher has a 4.2 true talent ERA and is left handed, why would the left handed pitcher be better?

by NoahJ on Oct 22, 2009 6:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No he wouldn't

That’s a throwaway line. Probably shouldn’t have even said it. Lefties do have an advantage, but that advantage helps them get that talent level.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Oct 22, 2009 7:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK, nevermind then.

I just wasn’t sure if I was missing something. Thanks for the clarification.

by NoahJ on Oct 22, 2009 7:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The average ERA in the NL last year was 4.2, so #3 starter or not, 4.7 would be pretty bad.

The Pirates would not trade Maholm for Hardy.

by epoc on Oct 22, 2009 6:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Obviously, for the Pirates, interest in Hardy would depend on who they’d have to give up. If they could get a 3.5-win, 27-year-old ss with two years of service time left for a .5 win, 27-year-old pitcher with five years of service time left, I think they’d do it. The chances of Ohlendorf contributing to a winning Pittsburgh team in the future are just about as good as the chances of Hardy contributing to a winning Pittsburgh team in the future.

by epoc on Oct 21, 2009 11:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Add me to the ridicule list

Can we please STOP trying to push JJ out of town? Does anyone here want to argue that he’s not one of the top 10 SS’s in MLB? Why do we want to sell low on him after 1 bad year?
I understand we need chits for trade. But let’s be open to whomever brings back the best return, JJ or Escobar. If Escobar and Gamel would return a Wade Davis/Jordan Zimmerman/Michael Bowden type of pitcher for Peterson to develop, by all means I’m for it.

by balldeagle on Oct 22, 2009 9:55 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Because the front office isn't crazy?

If we had a limitless budget, sure, you can make an argument for keeping JJ. But we don’t. Escobar is cheap and under team control for years, whereas JJ is getting paid 10 times as much and is a free agent in two years. More to the point, Escobar projects to be as valuable on the field (if not moreso) than JJ.

I think, regardless of if he had a good year last season or a bad one, JJ would be headed out of town this offseason anyway. It’s just unfortunate that his 2009 was so lousy. More to the point, in Escobar and Gamel/McGehee, we’ll have two solid infielders on the cheap for years. Our infield would be the envy of the NL.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Oct 22, 2009 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

let's wait on Zimmermann, of course.

he’s out next year for TJ surgery.

also, I keep having fantasies of playing JJ at 3B for a very nice left side defense. we’d probably have hella rangeruns above average, and JJ has the arm for the hot corner. if anyone expects him to hit 25 HRs again, i think a case should be made.

i understand the $4mil or so we’d save on JJ might help to beef up the rotation (so would luring David Wells out of retirement), but i think at this point that i have more faith in JJ bouncing back offensively and becoming an above average defensive 3B than i do in McGehee continuing to hit like he did in 2009 and field well.

i guess things get complicated when you consider trade bait and payroll going forward. i don’t know enough about how things actually work.

"I've had the time of my afterlife." --Patrick Swayze

by baumann on Oct 24, 2009 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think I saw somewhere

that JJ’s value drops like a lead balloon if you move him to third. Just the same, I’d love to spend $4-5 million for a Hardy/Escobar left side of the infield.

Though JJ has said he doesn’t want to switch positions.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Oct 24, 2009 11:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed

Search

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	91	71	.561	0	Lost 6
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	83	78	.515	7.5	Lost 1
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	80	82	.493	11	Won 3
Cincinnati Red Reporter	78	84	.481	13	Won 2
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	74	88	.456	17	Lost 3
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	62	99	.385	28.5	Lost 2