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Monday's Frosty Mug

Some things to read while the tables are turned.

View From Bernie's Chalet has the transcript of a recent chat with Keith Law over at ESPN where he touched on several Brewer-related topics, but the most notable was probably Trevor Hoffman. He thinks the Brewers made a mistake bringing Hoffman back at the price they're paying, and that it will handicap their efforts to improve the team elsewhere.

Admittedly, $8 million is a lot to pay a reliever, but it's possible there's a perception benefit from having an elite closer. When the Brewers announced the Hoffman signing, Doug Melvin suggested free agent pitchers may be more likely to sign with a club with an established closer. I have no idea if it's true, but I suppose it's possible. And if Hoffman pitches a full, effective season as a Brewer and notches his 600th save, it's possible he'll pay for himself in publicity and marketing.

Elsewhere on the pitching front, rumors continue to swirl around the possibility that the Brewers could have interest in Mark Mulder. Mulder probably can't be depended upon for significant innings, but bringing a pitcher of his caliber into the fold on a cheap deal to see what he can do is almost always a good idea.

Mulder, of course, pitched under Rick Peterson in Oakland. Mets Merized recently conducted an interview with Peterson, and has audio clips of some of Peterson's thoughts on developing prospects and pitch counts. (h/t Rob Neyer)

Although unlikely, it's still possible Peterson could spend 2010 helping Ben Sheets return to form. Sheets, who had his high school number retired this weekend, is throwing off flat ground and expects to pitch in the majors next season. Jorge Says No! wonders what he'll get on the open market.

If Jeff Suppan was on the market this offseason, he likely wouldn't command much at all. Suppan was the winner of Brew City Sports' Hendy Award, which will look great on his mantle next to a photocopy of the $12.5 million paycheck he'll take home next season.

Hopefully this will be the only career parallel between Suppan and Ryan Braun: Braun is opening a restaurant in Lake Geneva. Braun is also giving away autographed baseballs to the first 100 fans to spend at least $150 on Remetee clothing at Solis in Las Vegas. If you stop by in January, there might still be some left.

We won't know the actual results until sometime after the World Series, but Baseball Digest Daily had Prince Fielder third in their balloting for NL MVP, and Braun fifth.

The JS has a note on Jonathan Lucroy's early performance in the AFL, which has been pretty impressive. He's only racked up 19 at bats, though, so it's probably a little early to get too excited. Tom H. also mentions "poor starts" from both Lorenzo Cain and Taylor Green. Both are hitting under .250 but have OBPs of .364 and .400, respectively (in 50 combined ABs). We have more on all three prospects and the rest of the Brewer winter leaguers in today's Fall/Winter League Update.

Around baseball:

Cubs: Removed utilityman Bobby Scales from their 40-man roster.
Indians: Hired Manny Acta as their new manager.
Mets: Removed catcher Robinson Cancel, shortstops Wilson Valdez and Argenis Reyes and pitcher Carlos Muniz from their 40-man roster.
Padres: Are expected to name former Red Sox Assistant GM Jed Hoyer as their new GM.

After two searches and interviews involving over a dozen candidates, the Indians and Astros both settled on Acta as the best candidate to manage their teams next season. The Indians, however, were willing to offer a three-year deal with an option for a fourth, and the Astros were only willing to offer two years. Houston is reportedly considering Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills and former Astros and Brewers manager Phil Garner.

So, the World Series matchup is set. I guess I'll be rooting for the Phillies out of sheer anti-Yankee bias and some form of vague NL pride. Rob Neyer notes that it'd be nice if the games started earlier, so they won't drag on past midnight, but that seems unlikely. Meanwhile, the new Yankee Stadium didn't even make it through its first season without some structural concerns: cracks in pedestrian ramps have already started to appear. The concrete was poured by a local firm that had previously been banned from doing city work because of suspected ties to organized crime.

The ALCS wasn't actually decided until late last night, but apparently the result was already known, as MLB.com started selling AL Champion Yankees gear well before the final out was recorded. This has drawn a lot of backlash but maybe we're looking at it the wrong way: Maybe MLB should start selling World Series gear for every team in Spring Training.

The Florida Winter Baseball League opens play this week with teams in four cities, composed mainly of low-level minor leaguers. I haven't checked the rosters for Brewers yet, but a successful, competitive winter league based in Florida could be a huge development for American minor leaguers who want to play winter ball but either don't speak Spanish or simply don't want to spend the winter in Latin America.

If you'd like to read more about life in the Arizona Fall League but your attention span is really short, then you're the perfect candidate to follow Scottsdale Scorpions Clubhouse Manager Chad Chiffin on Twitter.

While some minor leaguers head off to winter ball, one major leaguer will spend the offseason in Washington: Pirates pitcher Ross Ohlendorf is spending the offseason on an internship with the Department of Agriculture.

Last week I mentioned the continuing debate on John Lannan, who has posted effective ERAs for two seasons without many of the peripheral stats one would expect from a successful pitcher. Nick Steiner of The Hardball Times has Part 2 of his look at Lannan, looking primarily at pitch sequencing. Steiner concludes that luck is the most likely option.

I'm going to be late for Gorman's vet appointment if I don't wrap this up asap, so here's what I have left: Happy birthday today to Rafael Novoa, who pitched 56 innings for the 1993 Brewers and turns 42 today, and to Mark Sweeney, who appeared in 119 games for the 2000-2001 Brewers and turns 40.

Also, a posthumous happy birthday to Gus Polidor, who would have turned 48 today.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you want to see a Jose Valentin autograph or win one from Miguel Tejada.

And if you'd like to win something autographed by Seth McClung, don't forget to enter the Bring Back Seth McClung contest.

Drink up.

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Florida Winter Bastball League

I’m not sure what to really make of that league. I skimmed the rosters a bit and it seems like there are a lot of independent league players on the rosters.

I may have missed someone, but I don’t think there are any current Brewer minor leaguers on the rosters. There are plenty of former players though including Jimmy Mojica, Derrick McPhearson (who was just released), Andrew Bouchie and John Alonso.

by Infield Fly Rule on Oct 26, 2009 10:36 AM CDT reply actions  

I have two thoughts on it, really

1) If they prove to be successful, there’s an instant niche for them: MLB didn’t renew its affiliation with Hawaii Winter Baseball this year, and many teams are looking for a similar place to send minor leaguers who aren’t quite ready for the AFL. Just like HWB, this league is operating with four teams.

2) If this league is successful and pays competitively to other winter leagues, it could be a game changer for other winter leagues. If a guy like Adam Heether or Brendan Katin has the option to go spend the winter in Venezuela or Florida and all else is equal, I can’t imagine most of the guys will leave. A league in Florida would be closer to home and easier to scout, and could quickly fill up with relatively high level American prospects.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Oct 26, 2009 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions  

I've got a fanshot up of a tweet quote that KLaw responded with

I tend to agree with him. Well, less tend, more fully.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2009 10:55 AM CDT reply actions  

Yeah, it's also linked in the Mug, I believe

And I promoted it to the front page this morning. Would have done it sooner, but I was gone all weekend.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Oct 26, 2009 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Cool, must have missed the link

I like the quote. It really sums up nicely that signing, in my eyes.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2009 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think closers get overvalued in pure contribution terms

But they make up for it in psychological value.

I know the numbers say a contribution is a contribution is a contribution, but blowing leads late in games, especially consistently is demoralizing for a fan base and maybe an entire organization.

If Hoffman pitched in the seventh inning, there’s no way he’d be worth $8 million for the limited number of innings he racks up. But when you combine his solid performance in limited innings with the leverage and psychological value of those innings, plus the marketability of having The All Time Saves Leader as he approaches his 600th save, I think you can make a case for paying him that much.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Oct 26, 2009 12:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

I know I'm curb stomping the horse, here

but he was 5th worst out of relievers on the team in clutch rating, but had the highest average leverage index…

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2009 1:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm not familiar with clutch rating

But if a stat ranks Hoffman as the fifth best reliever on the Brewers after a season where he posted a sub-2 ERA, I’m going to question its validity.

Who are the four ahead of him? I’m assuming Coffey is one.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Oct 26, 2009 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

Misread, I think

He was 5th worst in clutch rating. Here’s who was ahead of him:

Dillard
Coffey
DiFelice
Colome
Butler
Bush
Narveson
Riske(ha)
Smith
Weathers
McClung
Axford
Vargas
Stetter

Behind him were only these 4:

Swindle
Julio
Burns
Villanueva (-2.03!)

Now…the fact that he was 5th worst in the ‘pen in high leverage vs. context neutral situations, but had the highest average leverage would indicate to me that the job could have been accomplished for less money. The fact that he’ll regress due to a ridiculously low BABIP, a E-F or -.80, and, as Keith Law says a ‘fluky HR/FB rate’ makes the $8M signing for next season an absolutely colossally idiotic move. Remember, folks who are proponents love to point to Hoffman’s WHIP and ERA. But…as low as they were, he still blew 4 saves. Imagine what it’ll look like with regression.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2009 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

Not to mention...

and I don’t think I ever have to actually point it out, but since ERA is an extrapolation over 9 innings, its pretty ridiculous to use it to assess the value of a 1 inning reliever.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2009 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

Your stat suggests that Tim Dillard, David Riske, Josh Butler and John Axford were better pitchers than Trevor Hoffman, and you're still going to cite it?

I’m calling BS.

Does the stat take inherited runners into account? Because if it does, I can see where Hoffman, who only enters without runners on, would be down the scale.

But on the whole, you’re making an argument against this stat, not Hoffman.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Oct 26, 2009 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

The stat simply ranks how well someone performs in a high leverage vs. context neutral situation

And, as with all stats, should be taken in conjunction with other stats in order to look for analysis.

I’m not arguing AGAINST Hoffman. I’m saying someone could have done his exact job for substantially less money.

Here’s a link to Tom Tango’s leverage, which is what’s used in Leverage Indexes. Inherited runners ARE taken into consideration.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2009 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

Also see this

article Tango wrote at THT. Its the underlier for win expectancy.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2009 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

using Clutch rating as an indicator

Braden Looper should be the Brewers closer.

He had the highest clutch rating of all MLB pitchers

by CheezeconQueso on Oct 26, 2009 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

Oh boy

you’re purposely being facetious. Good work.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2009 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

Good thing we got rid of Sabathia. Apparently he was the third least clutch pitcher on the team last year. Suppan, of course, was the most clutch starter.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Oct 26, 2009 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sorry, I forget sometimes that win totals and ERA are what's important for pitching

Although you could just try and use all of the available metrics you can to analyze a player. Possibly outside the realm for you, however.

Did you want to stick SP in with relievers? Because that would be a horrible lapse in your judgement, although you and your buddy above seem to think its a good idea.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2009 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

I have to say that this particular argument is kinda bizarre

Sorry, I forget sometimes that win totals and ERA are what’s important for pitching

There’s a complete difference between doing that and doing what I’m going to do right now: he had an 8: 2.3 K:BB ratio, a 2.63 FIP, and a tERA of about 2 exactly. He had an amazing year. The clutch stat is confusing to me even and I don’t really know what it tells us about a relief pitcher. Based on the definition you’ve been giving, maybe he had a good outings in low leverage? I have no idea. But if you want to factor in the idea of clutchness and impact on wins, just use WPA. He was slightly over 2 positive wins for the Brewers.

Even if you think he was unclutch last season, do you agree he was still a really good pitcher? Because clutch can’t really be projected from year to year. You project context-neutral stuff because that’s what repeats.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Oct 26, 2009 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'll never say he was bad

But is it ever really enough to just say “its stupid to pay $8M for a closer?”

Like anyone here would accept just that.

I’ll bet someone internally could have given the Brewers 37/41 saves. Maybe they wouldn’t have had a 2.63 FIP, but they could get those saves that are so coveted.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2009 7:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

fluky HR/FB rate

He posted a HR/FB rate of 2.9%. It was actually the 4th time in his career that he posted a HR/FB rate of 3.0% or less. While it will probably rise, it shouldn’t rise by much, as long as he continues to keep the ball on the ground as he has for his entire career.

His BABIP was .231, but this is a guy who has always had low BABIPs. It’s not like it came out of nowhere. Once again, as long as he can keep his GB% up, his BABIP will stay down. I wouldn’t say his low BABIP was very much attributed to luck.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Oct 26, 2009 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

The discrepancy in ERA and FIP says it was luck

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think we'll see something similar to is 2004 season

He put up a BABIP of .262 and a HR/FB% of 6.5% (Both are roughly his career averages).

He saved 41/45 games that year.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Oct 26, 2009 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yes, because FIP assumes all pitchers should get roughly a .300 BABIP

But the whole point is that in 1042 IP, Hoffman has a .278 BABIP. Maybe that is just luck, but FIP makes no effort to adjust for the possibility that a reliever can sustain a below average BABIP.

Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?

by Lefti on Oct 26, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sure

And this year he was substantially under his career BABIP line. Thus, regression.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2009 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

Okay, but

Not a ridiculous amount of regression; certainly not enough to say the deal was terrible.

I mean, I’m not going to argue that the $8 million deal doesn’t overpay him; it does. I’m just going to, a, take issue with the idea that it’s a gross overpayment, because I think it’s justifiable, and b, more importantly, take issue with the idea that Law seemed to state pretty explicitly that Hoffman isn’t a good reliever, and this season was basically just a flukey home run rate. The numbers seem to indicate that the home run rate wasn’t that flukey, the BABIP wasn’t that flukey, and while he probably won’t put up an $8 million season, he should put up at least a $5-6 million season

Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?

by Lefti on Oct 26, 2009 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

You don't think spending 10% of a small market club's payroll on about 50 innings is irresponsible?

That’s really what’s up for debate. Hoffman’s WAR and value will be inflated by the fact that he is in late situations in games which, by definition, are higher leverage. Look at the salaries of the 10 highest WAR relievers this past season. First, you’ll notice that 4 of the top 10 aren’t closers. Second, you’ll notice that of the remaining 6 that actually are closers, 4 of them have salaries under $2M for 2009. Only Mariano Rivera and Rafael Soriano exceeded that mark for salary dollars in ’09, and Soriano split closing duties with Mike Gonzalez.

If you’re going to sit here and say “no those numbers aren’t fluky”, but I’m going to sit here and say “those numbers look fluky to me” then I guess we’ll just agree to disagree on that aspect.

The main issue is, however, that spending that percentage of your payroll on a 1 inning reliever is stupid.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2009 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

so who do you propose fills the void

and how much should we pay them, what will their ERA be, and how many leads will they surrender

The reason he’s getting paid that much is partially that’s because that’s where the market value is. We tell someone else (ie Coffey) that he’ll be the closer next year, and he might demand more salary for the role, or will at least use his role to leverage a higher salary the next time around.

Also, if we’re sticking someone cheaper in that role, wouldn’t they also be a pretty affordable 7th or 8th inning reliever, or another high-leverage situation reliever?

by PagsBrewCrew on Oct 26, 2009 8:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

How about Soloman Torres?

Wait, except he retired.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 27, 2009 8:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

yeah

i would have kept him…assuming he was still on the cheap.

by PagsBrewCrew on Oct 28, 2009 6:16 AM CDT up reply actions  

I know this isn't what you're getting at

But that kind of seems like saying stats showing, say, Juan Pierre is not the fifth-best hitter on his team when he hits .300 should be questioned.

Sign Corky Miller

by TheJay on Oct 26, 2009 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

No its not

I definitely got sidetracked. It would be interesting to see what Todd Coffey’s season would have looked like with Hoffman’s pLI.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2009 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

FWIW

That was a reply to KL’s comment about the validity of that clutch stat needing to be questioned.

Sign Corky Miller

by TheJay on Oct 26, 2009 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah I figured either way it would be a valid comment

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2009 7:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm all for

criticizing clubs for overpaying for closers, but I don’t think this was really that egregious as an example of that.

Fangraphs has Hoffman as being worth $6.7 million last year. He probably won’t be quite as awesome going forward, but his numbers really weren’t that far out of his career norms. As noted, his HR/FB rate was 3.1%, which is a number he’s hit multiple times in his career, and isn’t vastly different from his career 5.8% HR/FB. Furthermore, he had a tRA last year of 2.37, which normalizes for HR/FB, and normalizes BABIP to some extent.

And the clutch rating/leverage index thing is kind of a red herring, for two reasons. First of all, the clutch rating is not supposed to represent a repeatable skill. Second of all, having a higher leverage index in many ways suggests that it would be relatively easy to have a low clutch rating. If most of your appearances are high leverage, all you have to do is perform above your usual standard in the small sample of low leverage appearances you get, and then you’ll have a negative clutch rating by performing your usual standard in high leverage situations, even if your usual standard is very good.

The bottom line is while I do agree that Hoffman probably won’t be worth $8 million in WAR next year, he should be worth at least $5 million, and has a chance to be worth $6-7 million. You can argue that $3 million is an overpayment, but I think it’s not a gross overpayment, and I think the arguments about the psychological benefit, plus the marketing benefit of getting save #600, can potentially overcome that.

Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?

by Lefti on Oct 26, 2009 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

yankee stadium cracks

they’ll probably discover more redsox merchandise in the concrete (which they discovered before the stadium was opened). or perhaps a red sox fan.

by PagsBrewCrew on Oct 26, 2009 11:47 AM CDT reply actions  

Maybe they'll discover Dustin Pedroia with a chisel. Someone so small and so fast can be hard to miss.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Oct 26, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

easy to miss*

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Oct 26, 2009 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sheets salary

There was a suggestion of an incentive-laden contract, but I can’t see that ever flying with Sheets’ agent. He would have hit most rational incentives in 2008, but 2005-2007 were bad news:

Year / GS / IP
2005 / 22 / 156.2
2006 / 17 / 106.0
2007 / 24 / 141.1
2008 / 31 / 198.1

Sure, the teams signing him would want heavy incentives in his contract, but his agent would be dopey to negotiate any contract that’s largely incentive based.

With the free agent starter market as poor as it is and the huge potential upside, isn’t there going to be at least one team willing to give him 2 or 3 years at a good base salary plus some mild incentives?

If nothing else, we all know that even half a season of quality Ben Sheets starts is worth some coin.

by ecocd on Oct 26, 2009 2:02 PM CDT reply actions  

I don't know...

The Red Sox gave Smoltz $5M plus incentives. I’m sure Sheets wouldn’t mind that, and would still pull down a decent paycheck.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2009 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

Exactly

If the base salary is high enough, $3-5MM, I think he’ll do it. Especially if the IP incentives begin relatively low. $1MM for every 40 innings?

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Oct 26, 2009 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

I just don't see it being more than 1 year

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2009 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm thinking an option for 2011 will be thrown in there somewhere.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Oct 26, 2009 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

Or, if Doug Melvin does the deal

It will be 2 years guaranteed with a player option for a 3rd at $15M

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2009 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

Given what we know about Sheets

And the likelihood that he’ll complete a season, would it make sense for a team to wait to sign him and do what the Phillies did with Pedro? Sign in mid-May, send him to a couple weeks of EXST, then pitch one time at each level, debut around the All Star Break and let him go all out without concern for wearing down?

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Oct 26, 2009 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

Why would he want to do that?

I’m sure he can get a guaranteed major league contract if he is able to pitch in April. It might make a little sense for a team but not for Sheets.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Oct 26, 2009 3:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm guessing there's a floor in Sheets' willingness to play.

And, based on past money he’s made, I’m guessing it might be as high as $5 million. If no team is willing to guarantee him that, he might sit home until May, at which point he’ll take a pro-rated version of that to pitch for a contender.

I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that no one is willing to guarantee him $5 million, based on the fact that he’s been somewhat fragile and hasn’t pitched since September 2008. $5 million is a fair amount of money to a lot of teams right now, with budgets being tight.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Oct 26, 2009 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

I didn't think of the budget part

I was living in the past on salary considerations. Isn’t a win in April worth the same as a win in September? I don’t necessarily know why you’d hold him out unless you think that building him up slowly will ultimately give you more innings out of him. You’d have to structure that into his incentives somehow.

That said, how many teams wouldn’t sign him for $3 million + incentives? Even the Marlins would have to consider that. If, say, 25 teams would sign him for $3, how many at $3.5? “Hey Bennie! Nationals giving you $3.5? Then we’ll go $4.” I still wouldn’t be surprised to see $5 million over 1 year.

It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall of his agent negotiating salary, incentives and years between all the teams calling.

by ecocd on Oct 26, 2009 7:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

Isn’t a win in April worth the same as a win in September?

Yes, but in April a team may not be as desperate for his services.

In my scenario, Sheets would sit home because he’s unwilling to accept $3 million and incentives. Then, in May, injuries start to pile up or a team starts to feel like they’re one pitcher away, and someone calls on him to fill in that gap.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Oct 27, 2009 6:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

It's true.

Early entrants could include Roger Clemens, Paul Byrd and Pedro Martinez.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Oct 27, 2009 7:35 AM CDT up reply actions  

he'd get injured in the majors

i’d rather have him pitching fire in the majors until he flames out.

by PagsBrewCrew on Oct 26, 2009 8:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

And I think you're treating Sheets a little too fragile

He’s thrown 200 innings several times in his career. I don’t think he’s on the tier of chronically injured pitchers yet, and he’s not old enough to think he couldn’t throw 200 again… maybe not this year, but at some point.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Oct 26, 2009 9:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

Well, he's averaged 23.5 starts over his last four seasons (not counting 2009)

He hasn’t thrown 200 innings in a season since 2004 (although he did come close in 2008), and he’s coming off an entire year off.

If he comes back in 2010, how many innings are you projecting for him? Because when you combine his recent trends and the fact that he threw 0 last year, I think 120 would be a fair over/under.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Oct 27, 2009 6:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

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