Taking a look at some early projections

by KLSnow on Oct 28, 2009 1:35 PM CDT in Statistical Analysis Comment 20 comments

Can Rickie Weeks bounce back and have a strong 2010?

Earlier this week, ACTA Sports sent me a preview of the hitter projections from 2010's Bill James Handbook. Obviously, it's still really early, but I found some of the projections interesting, so I thought I'd pass them along to you.

Let's start with your likely leadoff hitter for the 2010 Brewers:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Rickie Weeks	425	.259	.357	.449	80	48	23	5	16	56	100

It's probably worth noting that even Bill James, who tends to be relatively optimistic, doesn't project Weeks to play a full season in 2009 (he has him at 114 games). Even so, these numbers are probably a little optimistic. The .259 average is a slight drop from 2009, but the .357 OBP is actually 17 points higher. Weeks was off to a hot start slugging in 2009, posting a .517 slugging percentage, but this .449 projection would be easily the second highest of his career.

Other potential second basemen:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Felipe Lopez	565	.281	.352	.400	79	58	31	3	10	60	104
Craig Counsell	342	.246	.337	.327	45	25	15	2	3	42	51

While James has Lopez playing a full season, he projects to be less productive, losing 55 OPS points to Weeks. This line for Counsell looks fair, although the Brewers are likely in trouble if they actually need him for 342 ABs.

Follow the jump for lots more projections!

Both because he could feasibly bat #2 and because he's possibly the most interesting projection:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Alcides Escobar	504	.288	.326	.377	75	48	22	4	5	28	77

If Escobar can put up this kind of season and still play the level of defense we've come to expect from him, I'll be overjoyed. James also projects him to steal 42 bases in 54 attempts, adding roughly 18 bases to his value. The walk total may look low, but it's actually a bit optimistic: Escobar only averaged 23.3 walks per season over six years in the minors. Escobar's primary source of value will almost certainly always be his glove, but if he can put up a .700 OPS in the majors then he'll be a significantly above average contributor at short.

The other option, of course, is J.J. Hardy:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
J.J. Hardy	528	.254	.320	.422	70	68	28	2	19	50	92

This isn't as strong of a bounce back as I was expecting to see. Certainly, Hardy adds a little bit of power over Escobar, but his OBP is actually a little lower, and his base-stealing ability is completely negligible (James projects Hardy to go 1-for-1 stealing bases). These numbers are roughly the midpoint between Hardy's very good 2008 season and extremely disappointing 2009.

Moving on, I think it's pretty safe to assume Ryan Braun will be batting third and playing left field on Opening Day, unless Anthony Witrado is promoted to GM:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Ryan Braun	615	.315	.378	.593	112	119	42	6	39	53	112

Those are MVP-quality numbers if ever I've seen them. Braun projects to be an elite player again next season, and if the award doesn't go to Albert Pujols (projected to go .333/.443/.642 with 44 home runs), Braun might have to be considered the frontrunner. These numbers would set new career highs in slugging, RBI, doubles and home runs, while tying a career low in strikeouts.

And, unless something changes before spring, Prince Fielder will likely be hitting behind Braun:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Prince Fielder	601	.286	.393	.574	103	124	37	2	44	96	135

With these numbers, Fielder would still be one of the National League's premier hitters, but his production would actually decline a bit from 2009's numbers in all three slash stats, RBI, home runs and walks. Fielder won't turn 26 until May, so it seems strange to project him to decline, even slightly. With that said, he'll still be one of the NL's elite hitters.

The way things stack up at present, the leading candidate to bat fifth and play third base is likely Casey McGehee:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Casey McGehee	492	.272	.328	.429	63	76	30	1	15	41	86

Like many of us, James expects McGehee to come back down to Earth a little, but these projections still have him as a solid-to-slightly above average third baseman. All three slash lines are significant steps down from the .301/.360/.499 numbers he put up in 2009.

The other option, of course, is some guy the Brewers have on the end of the bench:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Mat Gamel	455	.277	.354	.464	65	73	28	3	17	53	142

These projections, especially the OBP, seem a little high, but Gamel projects to outperform McGehee in nearly every way en route to a .818 OPS. This is yet another piece of evidence to be used in the argument that the Brewers should sell high on McGehee to make room for Gamel in the lineup.

(I know at least a few of you would probably like to see a projection for Adam Heether here, but he doesn't appear in James' projections. Sorry.)

Until told otherwise, I'm going to continue to assume Mike Cameron will return to play center field and bat sixth:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Mike Cameron	561	.237	,328	.428	79	74	32	3	23	71	171

These numbers aren't the best argument for opening the checkbook to keep him around. Clearly, James is expecting age to catch up with Cameron, who would lose 13 points in average, 14 in OBP, 24 in slugging, and strike out over 170 times for just the second time in his 16 year career. These numbers still aren't terrible, and combined with good defense Cameron is still likely an above average center fielder. But, with that said, paying anything like his $10 million 2009 salary for performance at this level is a questionable decision.

Dropping all the way to the seventh spot in the lineup in right field, here's Corey Hart:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Corey Hart	533	.272	.332	.467	78	76	37	5	19	43	110

This would actually be a pretty nice bounce-back season for Hart, with his highest batting average, slugging percentage and run total since 2007. Entering his age 28 season, it's possible Hart will never be the player we all thought he might be after hitting .295/.353/.539 three years ago, but these numbers would be acceptable for a corner outfielder.

While we're on the subject, here are the projections for some other outfielders on the Brewer roster:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Frank Catalanotto	110	.273	.360	.418	14	12	8	1	2	10	14
Jody Gerut	162	.259	.326	.420	23	20	9	1	5	14	25

I'm not sure either of these stat lines suggest either of these guys should play everyday, but they project to be solid fourth and fifth outfielders next season, and if it won't cost too much to do so, I'd be fine with bringing both back. Thankfully, there's no projection for Corey Patterson.

I'm preparing myself for disappointment by operating under the assumption that Jason Kendall will continue to catch and tie up the eighth spot in the batting order again next season.

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Jason Kendall	409	.254	.338	.320	43	35	19	1	2	37	44

I'm not sure what James is smoking here, because even this lackluster projection seems a little too high. In two seasons as a Brewer, Kendall has hit ..244/.329/.315, and I'm not sure he can even repeat that at age 36, much less improve upon all three numbers. Kendall is likely getting the benefit of the doubt based on an extensive major league career, but recent evidence would suggest he's sliding downhill, not mounting a comeback. I'm not sure where one finds the data to support even a small offensive resurgence from a weak-hitting 36 year old catcher.

Interestingly enough, James' projections don't have Mike Rivera, but they do have Angel Salome:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Angel Salome	240	.296	.345	.442	30	39	15	1	6	18	45

This is much higher than I would have projected Salome, who I think might be the third best of the three internal options to replace Kendall next season (Sadly, Jonathan Lucroy is also not projected). With that said, Salome is projected to out-OPS Kendall by 129 points. Remember what it was like when the Brewers had a catcher that wasn't an offensive black hole? Me either. I'd love to see what that's like.

So, what do you think of these projections?

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Comments

Has anyone ever checked

to see how accurate Bill James’ projections turned out to be?

It’s hard to imaging Hart, Rickie, and Gamel all OPSing .800+ in 2010. Also, if you could guarantee a .750 OPS from Gerut, I’d have no qualms letting Cameron go.

This really gives me a new appreciation for Hardy’s offensive numbers. The pitcher and catcher spots in the lineup will almost always be underwhelming offensively. If you don’t also have to hide, say, a .700 OPSing shortstop as well, that’s a big plus. (Especially if Cameron is gone and Rickie has his annual season-ending injury - that’d be a lot of holes in the lineup.)

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Oct 28, 2009 1:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

every year they are way high

I don’t have links to cite, but every year somebody compares the preseason projection systems, and James’s are never close to the best.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Oct 28, 2009 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I remember how last year Chone was the most accurate

from a post you had said. I wonder how things turned out this year. All in all, I’m not renewing my BP subscription since Chone is free, and I only read Goldstein anymore.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Oct 28, 2009 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I haven't been able to look at all the Brewers yet ...

but, according to FanGraphs, for 2009 Chone projected Prince at: .286/.388/.555, with 36 homers and 100 RBI; and Braun at .294/.351/.556, with 32 homers and 94 driven in (also: 15 SB).

by Rubie Q on Oct 28, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

used to be Nate would compare the systems

don’t know if he does anymore.

At some point in the offseason, I’m sure Tango or someone else at The Book blog will do the comparison.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Oct 28, 2009 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey now, it's still October.

Let me be optimistic. There will be plenty of time for harsh reality next summer.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by KLSnow on Oct 28, 2009 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

They didn't take Macha into account

I see no way Escobar steals that many bases with Macha at the helm.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Oct 28, 2009 2:17 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Is Macha really anti-stealing?

I thought the Brewers were anti-stealing because we’re, well, fleet-of-foot-challenged.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Oct 28, 2009 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is from the May 31 Journal Sentinel

(though Witrado wrote it, so take it with how ever many grains of salt you wish):

Brewers manager Ken Macha doesn’t need reassurance to justify the way he manages a team, but it puts a grin on his face to make sure other people have that justification.

He analyzed some statistics Sunday morning and came up with a few tidbits that support why he doesn’t let players steal more bases, and why he doesn’t sacrifice bunt as much.

by Rubie Q on Oct 28, 2009 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, he is

Escobar only had 6 SB attempts in 44 times on base. Most of those singles or walks. There was a sharp decrease in all our SB stats from 2008-2009. I know Weeks accounted for some of that, but not much. Hart, Cameron and Escobar are all decent at stealing bases. Hart only had 17 attempts and Cameron 10. Macha looks like he either lets everybody steal or nobody and most of the time it is nobody. Overall he seems to want to control when guys go and when they don’t instead of just telling some guys that they have the green light if they think they can make it.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Oct 28, 2009 10:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would be ecstatic if Hart put up those kind of numbers.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Oct 28, 2009 2:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

So where's the justification in keeping Felipe Lopez again?

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 28, 2009 2:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Gamel

His OBP in the majors this year was .338 while his average was on the wrong side of .250. Granted, he looked really tentative so maybe a fresh start gets him taking fewer pitches, but if he improves his average 30 points, I don’t think it’s too far out there to expect his OBP to improve 20.

Sign Corky Miller

by TheJay on Oct 28, 2009 3:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Playing time projections

Any system but PECOTA is just averaging out the past years of playing time. So a playing time projection isn’t really how much Bill James thinks he’ll play, just an average. So the “optimism” wouldn’t really apply to a playing time projection.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Oct 28, 2009 3:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

It must be weighted somehow, right?

Rickie’s played in 96 – 95 – 129 – 118 – 37 games in his five big league seasons. If you take the last three years, the last four years, or the last five years, it always averages out to about 95 games.

by Rubie Q on Oct 28, 2009 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah there's a weighting to it

At least there is in CHONE. I remember reading Sean Smith’s post on it on his blog some time back. I forget how he does it, though, and I’m feeling too lazy to search for it at the moment :)

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 28, 2009 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm guessing the last three seasons are weighted

with a progressively higher weight, to create a ‘trend’

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Oct 28, 2009 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't say that's wrong

but I don’t remember if its exactly right, either. And, still lazy.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 28, 2009 6:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't call it lazy

unless it’s the main component.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Oct 29, 2009 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Don't Understand the Cam Remark

If you think Cam is above average, why do you say he won’t be paid “anything like his $10 million 2009 salary”? An average player signed through free agency gets around $9 mil on average, afterall. Unless he’s willing to take a below market offer, someone will be paying Cameron $9+ mil, I would guess.

by rluzinski on Nov 3, 2009 10:01 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

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