Wednesday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Oct 7, 2009 9:07 AM CDT
in Milwaukee Brewers News
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PrintIt's a light news day, so the biggest story is probably the unveiling of 2010 ticket prices, which I'm having a hard time getting developing an opinion about either way. Prices are going up slightly, but not enough to really get upset about. (FanShot)
That might have been the most lackluster opening paragraph in a Mug all year. Maybe I need to check into Casa de Machado's starting lineup from yesterday.
Casey McGehee was named NL Rookie of the Month for September, a pretty fitting cap on a surprising season for a guy who quickly became a great story (FanShot).
Speaking of rookies, Alcides Escobar will technically still count as a rookie next season, as he narrowly avoided the 130 AB cutoff. Mat Gamel, on the other hand, spent more than the maximum 45 days on a major league roster this season, so he's not eligible.
Speaking of Escobar, Chris Mehring of Rattler Radio received the latest copy of Baseball America and noted that Escobar was the first team shortstop on their all levels all star team this season. Brett Lawrie was also the second team second baseman, and Eric Farris and Evan Anundsen made the all Advanced-A team.
Speaking of shortstops, Adam Guttridge of The Hardball Times took a first look at attempts to project J.J. Hardy's performance for next season, and thinks the team that eventually acquires him from the Brewers is going to get a great deal.
With the regular season officially over, it's time for Plunk Everyone to look back at the season that was. Jason Kendall, Dave Bush, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Felipe Lopez all make an appearance in their NL awards.
Fielder and Braun also show up on this somewhat more prestigious list: The top ten batters in the majors, ranked by OPS+. Fielder finished third, behind Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer, and Braun finished tied with Ben Zobrist for tenth place.
These probably don't go together, but I'm lumping them together anyway as "Power Rankings and whatnot:"
- WhatifSports ranked the Brewers #16 in their final power rankings of 2009.
- The Dugout Doctors ranked Bernie Brewer as baseball's fifth best mascot.
- The Brewers can almost certainly be considered the early favorite to sign Doug Davis, especially considering he's not expected to return to the D-Backs.
- The Padres may be looking to sign a center fielder this offseason, and Mike Cameron's name has come up.
- The Astros exercised their half of a mutual option on pitcher Brian Moehler. If Moehler accepts (and it's pretty likely he will), he'll make $3.5 million next season. He'll be 38 before spring training and posted a 5.47 ERA in 154.2 innings this season. Don't be surprised if this is mentioned as justification for bringing back Braden Looper: If Moehler, who is older, posted a higher ERA and pitched fewer innings than Looper, is actually worth $3.5 million, then $6.5 million for Looper can be spun as a decent deal.
White Sox: Exercised 2010 options on pitchers Freddy Garcia and Matt Thornton.
There was only one major league game yesterday, but it was a classic. If you missed it, you can relive it through the FanGraphs Win Expectancy Graph. Coming into the weekend, I didn't really have a strong rooting interest in the Twins-Tigers race, aside from a slight inclination to see the Twins win so we'd keep getting baseball analysis from Aaron Gleeman's mom.
With that said, the Tigers (and Major League Baseball's) handling of the Miguel Cabrera situation made me a whole-hearted Twins fan for the day yesterday. After the game, Cabrera seemed to understand the gravity of the situation, but that doesn't change the fact that he shouldn't have been allowed to play. Furthermore, Jim Leyland's decision to brush off questions about a domestic assault investigation by calling it "gossip" is absolutely deplorable.
On a lighter note, yesterday's game did give us a preview of the upcoming TBS playoff coverage, and the early reviews aren't very good. I've probably seen a dozen or more complaints about Chip Caray this morning, but he was only the second worst part of yesterday's broadcast to me, behind the incessant airing of the same commercial for George Lopez's new show. By the end of the divisional round, even Frank Caliendo is going to be sick of it.
It's a rough week for anyone who works in the front office of a baseball team, as firing season has clearly opened. Paul DePodesta, the Padres' Assistant GM who's been fired as a GM once himself, has an inside view of what it's like to work in a business where friends can come and go so quickly.
Need a mental warmup today? Try naming the career home run leaders by last initial. (Hint: There are two former Brewers.) I got 13, but also got frustrated and gave up with over four minutes left.
Once your brain is warmed up, turn it on to this task: The Eastern League team formerly known as the Connecticut Defenders is moving to Richmond, and they need a new name. Their existing options universally suck, so CNBC's Darren Rovell is asking for your help to generate some new ones.
Happy birthday today to Tim Unroe, who appeared in 48 games as a Brewer between 1995 and 1997 and turns 39 today, and to West Bend native Ryan Rohlinger, who turns 26.
Drink up.
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Comments
Doug Davis
Ugh.
If he signs with the Brewers this offseason, I dont think there is a lot of promise for 2010.
And double Ugh, watching the guy pitch is worse than watching the grass grow.
I'd rather have Davis than Looper
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Oct 7, 2009 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Still
That’s like saying “Stalin was a worse dictator than Hitler”.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
No way
Hitler was much worse than Stalin. Hitler killed jewish people because of self loathing, Stalin killed people who wouldnt fall in line with his beliefs.
But from estimates I have seen
Stalin killed ~20 million people and Hitler killed ~11 Million people. At that point, I really don’t care about reasons unless it is proven that all those people are from satans army.
a little bit
of sarcasm there…
since this is a message board and “not agreeing” sometimes is a killing type of offense…ie people here might be able to identify a little better with Stalin.
yeah, not if you're suppan!
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Rookie of the year
I know it’s kind of a lame thing, subjective, popularity etc.. but it kind of makes me mad that Gamel rotted on the bench so long he won’t get a shot at ROTY on whatever club he’s on next year.
Agreed
And I hope its the Brewers, if he isnt starting 3B by June next year, more evidence that things arent looking too good for 2010.
What if McGehee doesn't regress
and earns the everyday 3B job? That would look pretty good for 2010.
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Oct 7, 2009 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions
Big If
History is not on the side of 26 year olds making their debut, going on to successful careers. Exceptions are Negro League Players like Elston Howard, or Josh Hamilton and Alexie Ramirez (Cuban defector) or Miller Huggins (but this is only good if he goes on to become a manager).
The biggest star, in history, of a guy with that type of history is Dan Uggla.
There is a reason guys are 26 year old rookies.
A couple thoughts...
- Even if McGehee regresses, he will most likely still be better than what we have had at 3B the past few years (and excepting Ryan Braun).
- I don’t think Ken Macha will allow Mat Gamel to hit against lefties, every. Clearly the kid needs consistent ABs, but Macha is not the manager to give them to him. At best, I think Macha will platoon them if there’s an issue. Which may bode well for Gamel considering the bevy of RHP in the Majors.
- I totally agree with the 26 year old rookie statement. And I have a feeling McGehee will regress a pretty decent amount. Its unfortunate that no one will buy high on him, since he’s never done anything like this.
- I’d prefer not to part ways with Gamel, but if McGehee is going to be the guy, no matter what, then the team may as well try to throw some bandaids on the pitching gunshot wound.
- I want Gamel to be the everyday 3B and McGehee to fill a utility IF role. I know that won’t happen. Just sayin’.
- What about maxing out on Fielder now and just stashing Gamel at 1B? Sure you lose a ton of offensive production, but hopefully with consistent ABs Gamel will produce around a .300 AVG and drive in 70 with 25HR. I know this has been tossed around before. Just thinking out loud. Eh or writing. Whatever.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree with everything
except point 6. Gamel’s future is probably 1B, but I’d prefer to hold off on that for at least another year.
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Oct 7, 2009 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Has he done anything to suggest he can't play 3B in the majors?
Watching Gamel and McGehee this year, and comparing numbers, I’d say Gamel might even be the better defender. I realize McGehee was slowed by the injury, but he played to a -12 UZR/150. His defensive sample is maybe the equivalent to 150 PAs, but still.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I think Gamel can play a decent 3B in the majors
But will he get the chance? The FO seems to be pretty high on McGehee. He will have to perform his way out of the starting 3B job next year before Gamel gets a chance.
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Oct 7, 2009 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions
That's the point, I'm afraid
I want Gamel to be the starting 3B. But that’s not going to happen, I think.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 3:50 PM CDT up reply actions
That's not what I said
And you know it. I think The Mustache should learn from his poor analysis of his 2009 SP group. 2009 is a big ol’ statistical outlier for McGehee. Assuming equivalent output for 2010 is lunacy.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, but at the same time, there's no good reason to hand Gamel the job.
I’m all for letting them fight it out for the position.
Right, me too
I never wanted to hand anyone a spot. Baseball is all about ‘the more you can do things well for longer, the more we believe in you’. So…McGehee will have a leg up, because there’s this caveat that ‘minor league numbers aren’t very comparable to MLB numbers’. So, unless you admit you’re out of it early (The Brewers did not) and get some young guys a large amount of ABs, then you are either going to do what you always did, or bite your nails when you ‘gamble’. The Mustache is not a gambler. And the team’s hand was forced with injuries this season, and so McGehee was pressed into 2B duty. When it was evident he could hit MLB pitching, and Hall (for some reason all of his years since 2006 didn’t count against him) proved he couldn’t, he was conveniently slotted in. Sort of the Tiki Barber syndrome.
In any case, if it was Gamel that had made the club out of ST as a bench guy, perhaps things would be different.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Not like I would expect Macha to check MLS
Though there is no excuse for not knowing things like that
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
If it's too much to ask for for him to know how hard his relievers throw in the spring...
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
"There is a reason guys are 26 year old rookies."
Josh Willingham
Ryan Church
Matt Diaz
Travis Hafner
Marco Scutaro
Jamey Carroll
Scott Podsednik
David Eckstein
Pedro Feliz
Brady Clark
Casey Blake
Melvin Mora
Corey Koskie
Kevin Millar
Jason Varitek
Joe Randa
Scott Hatteberg
Marty Cordova
…since 1995. Granted, not much star power, but some pretty darn successful careers in there. I think this will prove to be McGehee’s career year, but him being a 26-year-old rookie doesn’t mean his career won’t be successful.
You know me Al.
by TheJay on Oct 7, 2009 7:09 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
TBS
I kind of liked that Dag Hammarskjold was mentioned during a baseball broadcast.
You know me Al.
Bernie as 5th best mascot?
I don’t see it. As far as mascots go, a big white guy with a moustache is pretty lame. (Though as GMs, they’re not so bad, arguably.)
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Few years back
ESPN made reference to a white guy in lederhosen standing above the K’s (there were 3 strikeouts at the time)….
It wasnt a very positive image…after that they moved the “K’s” to the scoreboard on the other side of the field.
I miss the "tradional K" display.
I don’t like the light up lights. It may even appease the Cardinals.
But the Brewers (presented by Potawatomi Bingo and Casino)
need more sponsors! We need someone to sponsor every strikeout!
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Oct 7, 2009 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions
haha!
that’s kinda funny.
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Oct 7, 2009 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions
awesome
but I prefer the traditional K display
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Oct 7, 2009 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Why, exactly, shouldn't Miguel Cabrera have been allowed to play yesterday?
The incident with his wife is under investigation. Why should he have to sit out while that investigation takes place?
Because IIRC, on Friday he got into trouble at a bar he was under strict orders never to return to, because he started trouble the previous time. He supposedly told a large gentleman that he needed to work out more, then started picking a fight with another guy.
Miguel Cabrera telling someone they need to work out more?
Hmmmm…..
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Are we talking 'fat'-large, or 'Professional-Wrestler'-Large?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Or both, if your discussing Mike Holmgren.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 7, 2009 9:29 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd go with Andy Reid.
That dude is orca fat.
by Rubie Q on Oct 7, 2009 10:12 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Agree with Rubie
It is under investigation and no charges filed, I’m not sure what you expected to have happen.
Meh
We don’t know specifically what he was guilty of, but we know he was arrested in the middle of the night with a .26 BAC after a 911 call from his wife, alleging assault.
I know he hasn’t been convicted of anything (yet), but he’s certainly done enough that it should have drawn someone’s notice.
This also isn’t a minor allegation we’re talking about.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
I was referring to the Commisioner, yes.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
OK, got it.
I think the standard operating procedure, though, is to wait for the justice system to run its course. Here, that process is just starting — and, who knows, the thing might not ever get off the ground.
That may be how it's always been done in baseball
But it’s not how it’s done in the NFL, which I think is a valid comparison.
I’m not saying he should have been banned for life or suspended until it was resolved (which is what would have happened to many of us if something similar had happened in the real world), but I didn’t think it was right for him to continue to play as if nothing were wrong.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
The most recent example I can think of in the NFL is Stallworth.
And Stallworth wasn’t suspended by the League until after his criminal case resolved.
But that was during the offseason, so there was no rush.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
The better example might turn about to be Braylon Edwards...
…. who’s being investigated for beating a man in Cleveland about a week ago. No charges yet, but the league is already rattling its saber about a poor conduct suspension, though nothing has happened yet, and Edwards was just traded to the Jets yesterday.
The thing about Cabrera’s incident is that it sounds like a domestic incident, and they are notoriously difficult to prove when the victims change their mind and become uncooperative. I don’t know if that will happen here, but it’s not uncommon.
Incidentally, did you see the pictures of Cabrera’s face? There was a large, long scratch running from his temple down to his mouth. When asked what happened by a reporter he said his dog did it. The reporter apparently thought Cabrera might have gotten into it with a teammate for showing up to work hung over (or worse) during a pennant race. A day or so later the reports of his arrest broke.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 8, 2009 6:43 AM CDT up reply actions
I've always wondered what they mean when they say:
“The NFL is investigating the incident.”
I have a hard time believing that the NFL is going to send out a P.I. (or a retired cop or somebody from NFL security) to take witness statements, speak to the player, etc. I can’t image the real police would be very happy if the League was collecting evidence while the law enforcement investigation is ongoing.
Actually the NFL (and some of the teams)...
… has long had a practice of hiring ex-FBI agents, but my guess is when they say the NFL is investigating they probably just mean they’re trying to obtain copies of the police reports and talking to team security about what they might have seen or heard.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 8, 2009 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions
If it's a red phone
then you could be the Batman!
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
What?!?!?!?!?!
We’ve got no time to find out what happened! We’ve got torches and pitchforks to ready. Who cares that there were injuries to the face of both man and woman, clearly the man must go to jail and be shunned while the poor wife is allowed to be a victim and her role in the violence is never to be questioned. Are you new to this?
by Getting Yosted on Oct 7, 2009 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
I think its worth noting here (maybe i'll put up a fanshot, too)
Jim Breen has an excellent post up over at Bernie’s Crew about overpaying for closers. I happen to agree completely with his analysis.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
Hmm.
That seems to imply that, in terms of salary:
every day players > Starting Pitchers > Middle Relievers > 1 Inning Relievers.
I’m pretty sure the first inequality isn’t true, and I know the last one isn’t. I’m not sure if it’s the save stat necessarily, but it probably did have something to do with it.
Is there a study out there that does salary by some leverage ratio/WPA statistic? I’d think the results would be somewhat intuitive, but I think the fact that closers are routinely in higher leverage situations than middle relievers justifies a slightly higher contract. To what degree, I’m not sure.
WPA/LI
Clutch is also a good indicator, in my opinion.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Doubt it
That would depend too much on a manager’s tendencies, I would think.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions
But you have to keep in mind
A closer is almost ALWAYS guaranteed to have a higher average leverage index than any other reliever, since they only put them in at the end of the game. If you run someone with a better clutch rating out in the same situation, they will (theoretically) perform better.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Didn't he score the winning run
In Game 5 of the WS last year? I know he was involved somehow, at some point
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
Phillies and Rockies
Go Rockies!
Brewers presser at 2pm on 1250. May have to stop listening to the playoffs at that time.
BA is sooooo much better than Chip Caray
And whomever the color guy was last night. I wanted to scratch my eyes out with a rock. Not Rock. A rock.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
lack of gambling.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Lots of stuff
One thing he said.. and we can now begin to speculate.
Goal is two starting pitchers from FA/Trades. Looks to maybe sac offense for better pitching. Pitching coach will have some say.. but most improtantly they players they are looking at are not in the playoffs right now.
Need to win more ballgames,
Losing CC and Sheets “a huge task”, 48 starts. A lot of things had to go “right”.
Evaluation of starting PC didn’t go well, takes some responsiblity.
Macha Was asked to keep staff members.
not alot of players to give fulltime play too in September. (Seriously?)
Pitching needs to improve. Duh. Unmeasured things need to be improved.
Quotes patience. See JDLR. Says he’s now pitching in the playoffs. He’s hurt now sorry doug unless they make it to the next round..
Ash: Didn’t give up games at the end.
McGehee good waiver claim. Hoof was done to atract FA SP. Points to knowing back end is locked up. Interviewing someone on asuper
secret pitching trip.
Has no idea on FA dates.
Claims to be ontop of things more this year.
Says sacraficing offense for pitching.
Pure focus on Pitching…
People like playing here.
Ben Sheets: No longer in team care, but desireable. Been once in awhile conversation with agent nothing of substance.
Balance budget and playing. (CODE FOR SMALL MARKET)
Compeition for next season. Industry problem with pitching.
2 starting pitchers. No one in the playoffs we are talking too.
Weeks is the 2nd basemen.
Knee why kc sucked at d.
Commited to giving up some position players for pitching.
Narvason maybe BP not a starter.
Points to strength in pitching lower levels. Needs to go outside org for big league level players next year.
Nothing too earth-shattering
I just wish he would have explicilty said that Suppan in the rotation next year is not a guarantee
It is what it is.
Didn't commit to that
But indicated more competition for starter spot.
Lots of small market QQing in this thing…
In regards to quick-fix FA signings,
yeah being a small market team hurts. But not when it comes to being able to draft and develop pitching.
It is what it is.
Just talked about KC
Said that his Defensive woes are caused by his knee. I’m going to call this.. Gamel is gone.
Not once or twice a week. It's been said, the guy needs regular at bats. 8-10 a week isn't regular.
I said they shouldn’t have bothered calling him up in september, it was clear there wasn’t playing time for him in the philosophy that the coaches had subscribed to (that I agreed with). If they wanted to develop him, they should have played him 4-5 days a week, similar use as Escobar. unfortunately for Gamel, there wasn’t available playing time, so he got nothing.
Would have been totally okay with him not getting called up.
Even if he wouldn't have "developed"
a few starts here and there could have prevented the feeling that the orginization had little to no confidence in him
It is what it is.
People tend to think that range and reliability cancel each other out
They do not. Range is a lot more important. If McGehee gets to 90 balls and throws out 89, that’s worse than Gamel getting 100 and throwing out 90.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Assuming none of those throws go into the dugout, of course...
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Oh, so by "throws out" ...
you meant “throws the runner out,” not “throws the ball out of the field of play.” I’m with you now. :-)
I don't really know what that's supposed to mean...
but the point is the point. It’s just an example.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I see your point...
You’re saying that Gamel has better range than McGehee, which means that he’ll get to more balls.
What if your example was 90/89 for McGehee and 100/80 for Gamel… which is worse? That’s what I was trying to say.
you're saying you can make up a hypothetical example to say anything!?
what if gamel was in a freak accident that gave him super powers!?
I think he's already got Super Power
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Then McGehee is better, yes
I don’t know actual numbers. I do know that UZRs from this year, Gamel is about +8 per 150 and McGehee was about 12 per 150. Neither played enough to conclude much. But this is just like the Durham vs. Weeks defense argument- range and surehandedness do not always balance each other out. Range is more important than accuracy, within reason of course.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Yeah, it was a bit hard to read.
Anyway, I wasn’t trying to prove your point wrong. I didn’t think my example was ridiculously unreasonable.
Looking at Gamel’s fielding stats in the minors seems to indicate that even though he might have better range than even a healthy McGehee, his fielding might be along the lines of Braun at 3B… or worse.
His totalzone numbers-- pretty much a measure of his range-- were fine.
He did have a lot of errors. But I’m not convinced that range was ever really the problem.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Totalzone
Gamel was about average in TZ at Hunstville in ‘08, and about 5 in his time in Nashville this year. TZ does not include the penalty for throwing a ball away- it’s either out or safe, if that makes sense. So you could lower Gamel’s numbers a bit. McGehee’s are pretty close to average, too.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I think Hart is gone
and Gamel is in RF next year
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Oct 7, 2009 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Question:
Which outfield would be worse, defensively — a Cubs outfield of Soriano – Fukudome – Bradley, or a Brewers outfield of Braun – Gerut – Gamel?
the latter
but Gamel is cheaper than Hart, and we need money for pitching. Besides, Corey Hart isn’t that good in RF anyway.
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Oct 7, 2009 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions
Just out of curiosity
What do you think Hart will net in a trade? Two or three bats?
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions
depends on who he's packaged with
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Oct 7, 2009 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Let me preface this by saying I hate Corey Hart
Not just because he cries and talks trash about the home fans, or because he refused to change his approach last season.
But mostly because, at this point, he’s had 1.5 good seasons and 1.5+ bad seasons in the majors. He is a below average defender in RF, who doesn’t utilize speed in the OF or on the base paths.
And he’ll be making…what? $4M+ this season? So…if he gets traded, I’ll view it more as a salary relief move.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Maybe because he's so fast it doesn't seem like he's utilizing his speed in the OF ;)
And no one is allowed to utilize their speed on the basepaths under Macha.
"my goodness"
by BrewHaHeather on Oct 7, 2009 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed w/Macha comment
But I remember a game when McCalvy tweeted something about Hart looking slow in the OF, which was unusual because he’s a good defender or something like that. I responded that he always does, but seems hesitant to go after balls (it was the game where Lopez kicked him in the neck). Then I got to thinking…most games I remember watching him in the OF, he looks like he’s half running after he blows a cutoff.
And then I hate him more.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Where does he need to get to quickly after blowing a cutoff?
;)
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Hart/Hardy/McGehee package pleasssseeee
Heck they could go Braves and get a pitching prospect and OF, such as Schaefer perhaps…
I don't know that
At all.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't like it either
but I’d bet anyone $5 that if anyone gets traded between McGehee and Gamel it’s Gamel that goes.
I'm not going to dispute that
But I do not think a package involving 2 MLB players and 1 prospect who is probably MLB ready is going to be put together for anyone.
That’s outrageous.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions
And that's not even taking into consideration
That J.J. Hardy’s 2009 campaign is likely to be looked at as the anomaly in his career, with ‘07 and ’08 more likely the norm years. One GM said something along the lines of only needing to fix Hardy’s hands and how far they are away from his body (think I saw on MLBTR, can’t recall exactly).
Additionally, while I don’t drink Hart Koolaid, he was an All-Star in 2008.
And Mat Gamel is the team’s #1 prospect (don’t count Esky, he’s an MLB’er now).
What do you want for all of that? Roy Halladay? Teams have proven that if they’re trading away an ace level talent, they want young pitching back. So who do you throw in then? Eric Arnett? Rob Wooten? Amaury Rivas? Smokey Jeffress?
So its not just a problem of giving away a HUGE amount, its also that…well…its not really what teams have proven to be looking for in trading a #1 pitcher. And, to me, anything less than a #1 for even just those 3 would be a bad trade.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Just dont see it
I have never been a big fan of Hardy, have felt that he has overperformed in those 07 and 08 years. But dont think he is as bad as this year.
I think he nets out at about 8 million in surplus value, add another 8 for Hart, plus the $10 or so you could get for Gamel (in your situation) you can get a pretty nice pitcher. This still leaves a hole in RF though and probably dont get a mlb ready OF in the deal if a big name pitcher comes over.
Too early to guage what kind of value an Arnet has, and I dont think any of those pitchers you mention have a ton of value in a trade apart from throw ins or add ons.
The biggest problem with using any kind of WAR values for players when evaluating possible trades
Is that it isn’t necessarily done like that in MLB. Teams have shown they generally want good young pitching for top level MLB ready SPs. The Sabathia trade was something of an exception, although the Brewers only got 3.5 months out of him for their best prospect, another top 10 guy, and two pitchers.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions
RE: Hardy
Hardy is a top 5 defensive SS in all of MLB at a premium defensive position. Between 07 and 08 only one other SS hit more HR. And Ramirez is a bad defender.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Arnett is not going to be traded
Melvin drafted him for a reason. The reason being he doesn’t have any big pitching prospects, and hasn’t for the last few years. He knows how tough it is to bring in pitching via free agency, and is trying to develop his own via the farm.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Also, he would have to be a PTBNL.
Since (I think) players can’t be traded until a year after they are drafted.
Oh, sorry.
I didn’t necessarily mean that I thought all three would be part of one package, just that all three would be traded.
Ah gotcha
I was freaking out, man.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions
2 new SP leads me to believe that Looper's option will not be picked up
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Unless they think they can package him with Hardy and/or (insert rookie 3b of your choice)...
… to get a pitcher they like better.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 7, 2009 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions
This Rockies - Phillies game seems familiar ...
Visitors are getting handcuffed by a Phillies southpaw, Phils scratching out a few runs … all it needs is a narrowly-averted Lidge meltdown to be a replica of Brewers – Phillies from last year.
haha
I actually laughed, I didn’t just type an onomatopoeia.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions
whether you actually laughed or not
you still typed an onomatopoeia
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
heh
about a month ago, I decided to buy microwave popcorn for the first time in about 10 years, so I looked at the directions. It was like 4 minutes, stop if pops are separated by 2 seconds or longer. Well..the problem was I incorrectly evaluated what that meant. As it would go 3-4 seconds between BURSTS of pops, and the math side of my brain took over and said “well..that’s only 1-2 seconds per kernel, so I’m still good” and left it in. By the time the full 4 minutes was up, I had a smoking blackened bag. My microwave still smells of burnt popcorn and has a orangish varnish on the interior that I can’t get rid of just by scrubbing (and I’m hesitant to dump something like comet in the microwave). The embarrassing thing is, I did just about the same thing 2 days later with bag #2. I stopped that one after about 2.5 minutes, but it was still burnt.
This is fun: Rambling Al doesn't understand WAR... or math!
I’m not sure bragging that a stat is “only” 6 wins or 83% accurate is a very good way of proving its worth. OXS predicts runs scored at a 97% clip, and it’s just simple math.
Why bother with something so complex as that when OXS and OXSA is oodles better and simpler? Remember “win shares” a few years ago? What a piece of crap, and I’d say WAR is closer to that than a keeper.
r=.83 is not the same thing as 83% accurate. WAR is not trying to predict runs. It is not more complicated than OXS—- you have to compare OXS to wOBA.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Correlation is a high-school sophomore level math concept
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
The decimal screwed him up
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions
yeah that thing that looks like someone accidentally dropped their fine tip pen straight down on the paper, clearly not purposely done.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 7, 2009 4:13 PM CDT up reply actions
C'mon guys
Al will issue a retraction shortly, after he notices his mistake, it isn’t as if Al is some sort of stuffy know-it-all.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Oct 7, 2009 5:33 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
Some of us aren't so good at the Maths, regardless of when we graduated from high school.
I take my cues from you Maths people about which stats I should look at. That’s the best I can do.
I hate math, to be honest.
Liberal Arts. I get my precalc and I’m taking as few math classes as possible next year.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
You might hate it, but at least you know what you're talking about.
Some — cough AL cough — don’t appear to understand it, but will talk about it anyway. I, m’self, fall into a third camp, based on the old: “Better to remain quiet and be thought a fool than to open one’s mouth and remove all doubt” maxim.
Sounds familiar.
I hated Math too. I took enough of it that I could test out of the math requirement for my BA, then avoided it like the plague in college.
I would advise against letting the skills you’ve acquired atrophy, however. Because if you do, about 20 years from now a bunch of smart guys will invent new statistics that do a better job of analyzing player performance than the stats you used to memorize when you were a kid, and you’ll feel like a complete dumbass.
Or so I’ve heard. :)
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 7, 2009 8:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Good advice
Maybe baseball statistics will advance a lot more. And I don’t plan on stopping following player evaluation. At this point, everything I have learned about baseball is actually pretty basic math once you get your head around what is happening and why. And baseball analysis isn’t really about numbers. It’s easy to find the numbers, you just have to know what they mean.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
You're right.
I should have used the word quantifying rather than analyzing.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 7, 2009 9:52 PM CDT up reply actions
As a new College freshman:
Take Calc as a senior if you can! I satisfied my requirement (pre-calc) to graduate from HS junior year and took a year off from math my senior year. I then tested into a low-level math class in college and regret not having taken math as a senior because I did let my math “skills” atrophy. Problem is, is so many majors require at least calculus. Or, at the least, the higher the math you go, the better it will look/help.
Not Communications!
Is phony major!
(Note: that’s a line from The Simpsons. Some of my best friends were comm majors.)
by Rubie Q on Oct 7, 2009 10:20 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I took Calc as a Junior.
I took a year off my senior year, so when I got to college, my advisors told me to retake Calc I. because so many people let their skills atrophy and fail Calc II.
SOoooooo glad I didn’t. I probably saved myself a semester of college.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Too late on calc senior year
I am currently in precalc. So at least I will have had a math class senior year instead of taking a year off.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Math 2?
Talk about a generic name. BTW, are you going to be getting your minor in stats?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
In other news
I just read this little bit in McCalvy’s latest article, which contains both good and bad news (depending on who you are)
Melvin hinted that the focus on pitching could make it difficult for the team to re-sign its key free agents, including center fielder Mike Cameron and catcher Jason Kendall.
I’d like to keep Cameron (depending on the price), but I would love to see Kendall go.
"my goodness"
If we don't have the money to sign Kendall,
then that talk of signing Molina (or someone similar) is out the window. Mike Rivera, come on down.
What are the chances Doug Melvin signs his old Rangers catcher for cheap
And actually manages to downgrade the position offensively?
You know me Al.
If the Yankees and the Cards both win a playoff game on the same day I'll lose my happy disposition.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 7, 2009 8:57 PM CDT up reply actions
And with the that, the Dodgers have the lead.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 7, 2009 8:58 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not sure how one throws the ball that wildly.
That was, what, 20 feet over the second baseman’s head? most impressive.
by Rubie Q on Oct 7, 2009 10:17 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Neither am I.
It’s like he thought they moved 2nd base to right field.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 7, 2009 10:26 PM CDT up reply actions
because he learned it from his time with the Cubs.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Nice fail bunt pierre
Watch Lopez.
by SgtClueLs on Oct 7, 2009 10:47 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
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