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JJ Hardy's Trade Value

Speaking only for myself, I have a hard time determining what JJ Hardy is worth on the trade market.  His underwhelming performance last year and ultimate demotion to AAA has either helped or hurt his value on the open market, and teams now have to decide if 2009 was an aberration or a sign of things to come.

Fortunately, more astute baseball fans than I have mulled over this very question.  Let me throw out some of the names they've mentioned.

 

Star-divide

First, here's what MLBTR says about JJ the Love Machine:

J.J. Hardy, Brewers.  GM Doug Melvin admitted to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that it would be "very difficult" to keep both Hardy and Alcides Escobar on the roster.  Due to an August demotion, Hardy is under team control for two more years (he earned $4.65MM in '09).  He was very valuable in 2007-08, and the 27-year-old is easily the prize among all available shortstops (considering both trade targets and free agents).  Despite Hardy's off year, expect Melvin to demand a quality starting pitcher in return.

Here are some of the names being bandied about:

  • Kevin Slowey, Minnesota Twins: The 25-year-old Texan was also having an underwhelming 2009, until wrist surgery ended his season in July.  However, Slowey posted a 3.99 ERA and a sparkling 1.15 WHIP in 2008 covering 160 innings.
  • Michael Bowden, Red Socks: Bowden just turned 23, and his career ERA over 8 reflects his youth.  (No, Jeff Suppan, you have no excuse.)  Needless to say, his potential is belied by his numbers thusfar.
  • Brandon Morrow, Mariners: Morrow seems a lot like Bowden: young and righthanded, and without much success in the majors thusfar.
  • Francisco Liriano, Twins: It wasn't long ago when this guy was pretty much unhittable.  Funny how elbow surgery and 1+ years of rehab affects one's trade value.  Liriano followed up a decent 2008 season (76 IP, 3.99 ERA) with a forgettable 2009 (5.80 ERA, including being demoted to a reliever in September).

I don't know much about these four, except to say they play in the AL, and none of them is a sure thing.  Also, if Hardy is our top trading chip, we ought to try to get someone who can eat up the innings as well as get batters out.  What do you think would be a reasonable return for JJ?

0 recs  |  Comment 17 comments |

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Comments

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Suppan

At Bowden’s current age, Suppan had already appeared in 39 games (29 starts) in the majors. I just don’t think of him as the type to make the majors two years after being drafted out of high school.

Sign Corky Miller

by TheJay on Nov 1, 2009 10:32 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

A couple Twins names on that list, although Morrow is a Mariner.

Seriously, though, on that list the one that I personally would want least would be Liriano. He seems like a worse version of Ben Sheets; injured even more and not as effective when actually healthy. I think the best option for the Brewers right now would probably be Slowey as he seems like the most sure thing. Looking at his walk and strikeout numbers, he seems like he has very good control, and his BABIP against was a high .349. And, if I’m reading the stat right, it looks like he is a flyball pitcher which might not be a good thing in Miller Park. Either way, a trade for Slowey would look good to me.

by NoahJ on Nov 1, 2009 11:09 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Whoops!

Fixed.

The funny thing is, the names being bandied about are young. Although DM has acknowledged our lack of young frontline pitching, I’d be surprised if JJ nets us Yovani-lite. I’d more expect someone in the mold of Dave Bush: someone not quite so young, and not quite as good.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 2, 2009 7:12 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Bowden

I’m curious how Hardy would perform in Fenway. His line drive swing would have trouble putting the ball over the monster, but I think he would consistently knock doubles off the wall out there.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 2, 2009 8:22 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Bowden or.........

Bowden would be at the top of my list. Slowey if I could get comfortable he’s healthy.

Would you take Marc Rzepczynski from the Jays…maybe together with a bullpen arm? Young LH…seems to project to middle of the order…

by infield fly on Nov 2, 2009 10:28 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Is Bowden major league ready?

A young player like him would probably give the most value in the long run, but I’d prefer they deal Hardy for a lesser pitcher who can help the rotation in 2010 and 2011. Slowey wouldn’t be a bad pickup, as he is young with a lot of upside but can still contribute from the get go.

That said, once again this all depends on if Fielder will be on the team in 2012. I wish they would just offer him an extension already so it clears up whether or not the Brewers need to go all out to win in the next two years or not.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Nov 2, 2009 1:14 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Not sure that Morrow is likely to be an option

If the Mariners pick-up their option on Jack Wilson($8.4million) then they would have no need for a SS. Since they seem to be more aware of defensive value I think they will pick it up which is a pity because Morrow would be an interesting guy to get back.
They should be aiming for a pitcher who can pitch in the rotation this coming year rather than any prospects because the chances are that there is only 2 years left of the Braun/Fielder combo in the middle of the line-up so they have to try to win now.
The fact that they have already re-signed Hoffman is signal that is where the mindset of Melvin/Attanasio is.
I think that Slowey is about the right level to expect if trading JJ on his own. There is not alot of teams that need a SS that can give up pitching in return (If the Giants had not signed Renteria or the Nationals Guzman for biggish bucks then there would be more options)
If they can also sign one of the FA starters out there (Bedard,Washburn,Davis or similar) then we could have a rotation of Gallardo,FA,Slowey,Bush,Suppan with Parra as the 6th option – assuming we can’t find anybody wanting to take Suppan.
This would be an okay rotation but it would need to backed up by some good hitting and fielding to make it to the playoffs.
If they wanted to go for broke and package Gamel and JJ together then who knows what sort of SP they could net. (would be a good start to try to get Halliday for example).

by Saltire on Nov 2, 2009 6:19 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Why would anyone

pay Jack Wilson $8.4 million to play shortstop? It’s weird that Wilson could get more than Hoffman.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 2, 2009 6:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually when you take the in consider the buyout

it is “only” $7.8million. He is one of the best fielding SS in the major leagues and has averaged out at 2 WAR each season over the last 3 years(according to Fangraphs).and probably worth around what he is going to get paid next year.
Hoffman has averaged around 1 WAR over his last 3 seasons and is probably worth around 1/2 what he is going to make next year. (I appericate comparing SS to Closers is not exactly the same due to playing time but it shows how much closers are overpaid.)

by Saltire on Nov 2, 2009 6:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Didn't Jack Z also say something to the effect of

“Now we have our shortstop for the next couple years,” when they traded for Wilson?

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 2, 2009 7:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Wilson's UZR/150 is 5.8 over his career

Hardy’s is 10.2.

Plus, Wilson is going to be 32 before the start of next season and has zero to offer offensively. J.J. Hardy’s offensive 2009 is Jack Wilson’s average offensive year.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 2, 2009 7:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I am not saying that Wilson is better than JJ

But if you have a player who is pretty decent on you team it is harder to give up one of your better players to improve.
The UZR/150 for Wilson is a little strange though with 3 of the last 5 years at around 15 and the other 2 at below average.

by Saltire on Nov 2, 2009 7:48 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

2008 was also non-qualified for Wilson due to limited playing time.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 2, 2009 10:30 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The only way Jack Wilson is worth 8.4 million

is if we started paying in yen.

Over the past 3 years, Wilson is the majors’ 17th best shortstop in terms of WAR. His WAR is only 1.2 over that of Craig Counsell, for the love of Pete Vukovich.

(If you’re curious, Hardy is 6th, only a smidge behind Jose Reyes and Tulowitzki.)

That being said, Wilson is fine at short, if you have other players to provide the offense. At $8.4 million, though, he’s getting paid double what he’s worth.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 2, 2009 8:12 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Jack Wilson

The way to get the maximum value out of Jack Wilson, is to merchandise “Official Jack Wilson Yard Gnomes” — to scare off birds, rabbits and insects, while showing your team support

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Nov 3, 2009 7:24 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I would guess

that he’s worth a good fielding CF who can steal some bases with a few years service time remaining.

by backtocali on Nov 6, 2009 1:04 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Only if said CF has a career wOBA of .286

Then, its an awesome deal!

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 6, 2009 8:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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