Looking back at community projections: Third Basemen
by KLSnow on Nov 10, 2009 2:00 PM CST
in Statistical Analysis
7 comments
Sometimes a tornado blows through and leaves everything exactly how it was. That's kind of how third base went for the Brewers this season: Nothing went exactly how we projected, but the end result was about the same.
Projections:
Bill Hall
Projected: .262/.329/.454
Actual: .201/.265/.341
Mat Gamel
Projected: .274/.334/.442
Actual: .242/.338/.422
Craig Counsell
Projected: .231/.322/.332
Actual: .285/.357/.408
Before the season we were pretty optimistic about Bill Hall, with six of the nine projectors giving him an OPS of .780 or above. Instead, he played his way off the team and got to the point where the Brewers ate most of his salary and traded him to Seattle for a low level pitching prospect.
Worth noting: Mat Gamel's 2009 numbers don't really tell the whole story regarding his performance: Gamel hit .274/.340/.524 in 94 plate appearances as a third baseman, and went just 8-for-44 (.182) as a DH and pinch hitter.
Playing time:
| Player | Projected % | Actual % | Diff |
| Bill Hall | 41.6% | 30% | -11.6% |
| Mike Lamb | 32.3% | 0% | -32.3% |
| Mat Gamel | 24.5% | 13.4% | -11.1% |
| Craig Counsell | 1.6% | 19.1% | +17.5% |
| Casey McGehee | 0% | 37.4% | +37.4% |
Obviously, we completely whiffed on Casey McGehee. When we made the projections, many of us expected Mike Lamb to take his place on the roster: Instead, Lamb declined an assignment to the minors at the end of spring training and didn't appear in the majors this season.
Meanwhile, Craig Counsell had a very good season for him, but the fact that he received 50% more playing time than Mat Gamel is puzzling at best.
Overall:
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| Projected | .263 | .330 | .431 | .762 |
| Actual | .267 | .330 | .440 | .770 |
| Difference | +.004 | Even | +.009 | +.008 |
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Why is it puzzling that Gamel had 50% less playing time then Counsell?
"Cubs suck. I own them" -Doug Davis
by Metagen on Nov 10, 2009 2:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
wow, we were really spot on with the production here.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Nov 10, 2009 3:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I know this is not at all how real life works
but how do McGehee’s slash stats compare to what we projected for Lamb?
by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 10, 2009 3:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Can I finish your thought for you?
The fact that [Counsell] received 50% more playing time than Mat Gamel is puzzling at best.
At worst, it’s felonious.
by Rubie Q on Nov 10, 2009 4:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Counsell had a six-week head start on Gamel
Sign Corky Miller
by TheJay on Nov 10, 2009 6:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Do you think
Casey should be the brewers full time 3rd baseman?
by Drew C on Nov 10, 2009 7:40 PM CST via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Not as long as Mat Gamel is on the team
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Nov 10, 2009 10:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
St. Louis
|
91 | 71 | .561 | 0 | Lost 6 |
|
Chicago
|
83 | 78 | .515 | 7.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
80 | 82 | .493 | 11 | Won 3 |
|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 84 | .481 | 13 | Won 2 |
|
Houston
|
74 | 88 | .456 | 17 | Lost 3 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
62 | 99 | .385 | 28.5 | Lost 2 |
(updated 11.20.2009 at 4:30 PM CST)
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