Jonathan Lucroy: You know, maybe...

by roguejim on Nov 11, 2009 8:37 AM CST Comment 42 comments

I clicked on this link because its corresponding tweet suggested that Jason Kendall might not be a 2010 Brewer after all. Unfortunately, there's no new information that suggests he won't be back, though it sounds like DM is committed to not paying $5 million for a catcher this season. However, the link also talks a little about Jonathan Lucroy's game offensively, and now I'm wondering if a good spring training for Lucroy might be enough to give him the job.

First, I have to admit, I don't know much about either of the Brewers' top two catchers in the system: my impression was that Angel Salome had a promising bat but was not there defensively, whereas Lucroy's defense was about major-league ready but his hitting was not. I still don't know much about Salome, other than Doug talked to him last week and Angel is still something of a work-in-progress.

We know a little more about Lucroy, though. The biggest revelation is that he is an on-base machine: in AA, he hit a modest .267, but he has an OBP of .380. He had walked more times (78) than he had struck out (66). Adam M. says he profiles to be in the mold of Terry Steinbach (Steinbach's stats here), who over his career was...pretty OK, offensively, as a catcher.

Of course, his biggest attribute is that he would be cheap cheap cheap. If he is a plus defender at catcher (and DM seems to think that's the case), even a moderate offensive showing might be enough for him to win the starting job, or at least to split time on the major league club. This is especially true given the FA choices available at catcher: we could bring in a FA catcher for $2-3 million, but not get much of an upgrade, offensively or defensively, over what Lucroy could provide. At the very least, Lucroy could mean we only need to find a part-time FA catcher, playing for $1 million or less.

Finally, the caveat: a lot of this recent Lucroy support is stemming from his play in the Arizona Fall League right now, where he's OPSing .949 over a small sample of 41 ABs (with, notably, 1 walk compared to 6 strikeouts). Lucroy might not even be in the conversation if he were OPSing .798, as he did in AA. Moreover, although Lucroy could give us a solid defense up the middle with Escobar and CarGo, it's possible that none of the three would OPS .700 in the majors next season, which, when you include the pitcher, makes for a lot of outs in the lineup. Just the same, I think (perhaps inaccurately) that OBP translates pretty well from the minors to the majors: if Lucroy can hit .235 but get a lot of walks, he might actually be a better option than your typical FA catcher, especially if you're throwing every last dollar you can get your hands on at pitching.

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I think

you make a good case. I’d be down for this, especially if it means not bringing Kendall back. I’m also for giving Mike Rivera more consistent playing time. He’d be cheap, and he’s gone on some offensive tears in the past. He’s one of those guys that I would like to see what he could do with more PAs. A 65%/35% split with Lucroy (Lucroy getting the heavy end) would be nice to see.

Thinking about this make me dislike the CarGo trade even more. Resigning Cam for $8-9mil would have cost, well, $8-9mil, but it would give us a stable force in CF and in the lineup so that we could give a guy like Lucroy a shot, someone who has been in our future plans for a while and clearly has more upside than someone like Gomez. In that scenario, we would still save >$4mil by not bringing Kendall back, and we could have saved Hardy’s $5 in a trade for a pre-arb or Arb1 pitcher, or something like that.

We don’t know what Doug Melvin knows, that’s for sure. I just hope that he knows everything that we do, too.

"I've had the time of my afterlife." --Patrick Swayze

by baumann on Nov 11, 2009 9:17 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Not blaming you...

…but there are too many CarGos in baseball.

I suggest that one of them, preferably ours, changes his name to “Franklin Gutierrez.”

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 11, 2009 9:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

speaking of which

how did Guitierrez miss out on a Gold Glove? he was the best OF in the game hands down

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."

by Hyatt on Nov 11, 2009 10:11 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

While Adam Jones and his negative 2009 UZR did win..

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 11, 2009 10:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Does the fact that Hunter won bode well for a guy like Cameron?

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 11, 2009 10:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The Gold Glove voting is incredibly idiotic and meaningless?

That’s my reason, anyway.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Nov 11, 2009 3:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Or Matt LaPorta

We should have an extra uni lying around somewhere.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 11, 2009 10:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't even like that abbreviation.

I don’t know why I used it.

I’m going to start calling him Poofy McPuffball.

"I've had the time of my afterlife." --Patrick Swayze

by baumann on Nov 11, 2009 11:19 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I like the name, "Goomz"

not sure why, though.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 11, 2009 3:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

After he wins a gold glove next year, we can probably call him Goldez

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 11, 2009 3:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Lucroy has more upside than Gomez?

Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Secretly, I am Carlos Gomez*

by SRB on Nov 11, 2009 1:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

"I've had the time of my afterlife." --Patrick Swayze

by baumann on Nov 11, 2009 3:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

In my mind...

The question is whether his overall offense is better than Kendall. To which I think the answer is a definite Yes.

I still like the idea of Bringing Cam back to replace Hart in RF. That defense would be awesome. Offensively replacing Hardy, Hart, Kendall (2009 production) with Escobar, Lucroy & Gomez may even be close to a wash.

by Saberilliterate on Nov 11, 2009 9:22 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

The way I’ve been thinking about it is that Lucroy’s offense can’t be much worse than Kendall’s, so why not give him a shot? Especially if his defense is ML ready.

"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC

by BrewHaHeather on Nov 11, 2009 9:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm on board, RJ.

Especially because of this line:

Moreover, although Lucroy could give us a solid defense up the middle with Escobar and CarGo, it’s possible that none of the three would OPS .700 in the majors next season, which, when you include the pitcher, makes for a lot of outs in the lineup.

On the other hand, if Kendall is re-signed, it’s a virtual lock that he won’t OPS .700. That being the case, save some money and give the kid a shot.

by Rubie Q on Nov 11, 2009 9:40 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

It depends

Kendall OPSed .636 and .651 the last two seasons. If Lucroy can jump over that bar, which is about 6 inches off the ground, then sure, replacing Kendall with Lucroy is a no-brainer.

However, if Lucroy is going to OPS, let’s say, .650, is it better spending $2-3 million for a guy who can OPS .700? (Or even more for Olivo? His OPS’s have been all over the map, but did manage .781 last season, IIRC.)

I guess, my ideal would be to pair Lucroy with someone like (wait for it) Damian Miller, assuming Miller can still play the role of light-hitting catcher a third of the time. OK, so maybe not Miller. But someone who can tutor the kid for a season while getting 150-200 ABs for himself. I’d prefer that “someone” not be Kendall, but you know, we could do worse. (We could get Estrada back. Maybe Jamie can get another Christmas jersey.)

If that fails, then I wouldn’t mind spending a little to get someone like Olivo, who can make up some of the dropoff between Cameron and Gomez.

If THAT fails, and the best FA we can get is someone like Kendall, then, by all means, bring on the Lucroy/Rivera platoon.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 11, 2009 10:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

How about another Miller?

Sign Corky Miller

by TheJay on Nov 11, 2009 10:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Estrada and tutor should never be used in the same paragraph

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 11, 2009 11:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Estrada and taters, on the other hand...

What begins in fear usually ends in folly.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 11, 2009 7:47 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs

well played.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 11, 2009 10:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Cost/marginal value?

Here’s my best assessment, rudimentary as it is:

Lucroy would cost $400k. If Olivo would cost $3mil to replace Lucroy on the roster, he would have to provide only 0.6 marginal wins (assuming $4.5mil per marginal win, as per FanGraphs and WAR) to be “worth” the “upgrade”.

That said, Olivo’s defense has a rep for being below average, and Lucroy’s D is “MLB-ready” and presumably getting better. Also, using the only projection that’s out there already (Bill James’), we might assume something like a .695 OPS from Olivo next year. Lucroy would certainly have a shot at that, and then some, but probably could post at least a .650, which might be enough to erase the defensive advantage that he has, but not enough to bother with Olivio (or other similar players).

It’s just not worth it. Kendall is even less worth it, as he has essentially no shot at OPSing .700 next year.

Inviting a guy like Javier Valentin to spring training and/or giving him a minor league deal might not be a bad idea—essentially no cost. He’s got just as good a chance to top a .700 OPS as Olivo, IMO, and we’d still have that $3mil to put towards a pitcher (or Mike Cameron).

"I've had the time of my afterlife." --Patrick Swayze

by baumann on Nov 11, 2009 11:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, right

Olivo is only worth it if he can hit near .800, OPS-wise. If they’re really expecting a 100-point OPS drop, then he’s not worth the extra cash.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 11, 2009 11:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

value of marginal wins

if a win means you make the playoffs and a loss means you’re out, that win is worth several million bucks. If, on the other hand you’re going from a 95 loss team to a 94 loss team, you may as well save your dollars.

In other words, such value assesments should be highly situationally dependent.

by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 11, 2009 12:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

I think that the “Value” numbers on places like FanGraphs are calculated by starting with 48 Wins (supposedly what a team of all replacement-level players would win on average) and building up from there. That’s what I meant by “marginal win” (I’m basing this largely on this article by Dave Cameron). In short, the value of the Average Marginal Win—to which I have been referring—is what teams are willing to spend in a given year to get the wins that are available on the open market in the form of WAR.

Clearly, if you are a team that projects to win 89 games, you will be willing to bid much higher on the open market to improve by 4-5 wins, because 93 wins usually guarantees a playoff spot. So yes, marginal win value changes based on context, but I’m not sure what position the Brewers are in right now, so I don’t know how to adjust the value according. What I do know is the Brewers have a long way to go to 90 wins and not that much cash to get there. I don’t think there’s any reason to spend that money on a guy like Olivo that we can replace for free. That seems to be what a lot of people are saying here, too, so I’m just preaching to the choir, really.

"I've had the time of my afterlife." --Patrick Swayze

by baumann on Nov 11, 2009 4:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What the hell

I’m not expecting much in 2010, might as well put a rookie behind the plate as well.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 11, 2009 10:30 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Bing on Lucroy!

I like the Terry Steinbach comparison, but I think Lucroy will be a much more solid .350+ OBP with plus power for position player. (Maybe not next year, but certainly his defense makes him better than Olivio even if he OPSs .650)

by Braunstalker on Nov 11, 2009 12:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Lucroy/Salome!

Not that Bill James’ projections are the gospel (and of course he’s usually overly optimistic) but he projects Salome to hit .296/.345/.442/.787 with a .346 wOBA. As a comparison, an expensive free agent like Torrealba is projected to have a .299 wOBA

I think starting Lucroy with Salome as a back-up/pinch-hitter would be a best case scenario if possible.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Secretly, I am Carlos Gomez*

by SRB on Nov 11, 2009 2:03 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I was thinking...

that someday, those two would be splitting time eventually.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 11, 2009 2:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

And cause a rift in the space-time continuum?

by Zeyes on Nov 12, 2009 8:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Kind of good news

Brewers told Arn Tellem, agent for C Jason Kendall, that they can’t pay $5 M for Kendall to return. Kendall probably will look around – Per Hardritwitter

Look around doesn’t mean he won’t be back. At least there a possibility.

by SgtClueLs on Nov 11, 2009 3:55 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

it's called THwitter

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 11, 2009 4:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

All Three

We still have Mike Rivera under team control right?

I’d like to see a platoon with Rivera and either Salome or Lucroy. Go with whoever comes out of spring training hot. Ride the hot hand anad the better defense and with the other just a phone call away in Nashville we can switch back and forth between Salome and Lucroy as needed all season long.

We need all the money we can get on for starters. I think we gott trust our youth, thats how we got where we are now!

by JayzTazay on Nov 11, 2009 4:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Platooning young players

would only stunt their offensive growth. I am not in favor of platooning young players. Besides, Rivera, Lucroy and Salome are all righties.

"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC

by BrewHaHeather on Nov 11, 2009 7:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Basically all catchers are right handed.

At least in handedness. There are some switch-hitters out there, though.

by NoahJ on Nov 11, 2009 8:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i'm right handed

I’m right handed in helicality, right down to my genes.

by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 11, 2009 11:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Salome

I like how Salome had a disappointing season, hitting .286/whatever/whatever while limited to 82 games because of injuries. Meanwhile, the last time Mike Rivera played anywhere near full-time, he didn’t even OBP .286 in Nashville. I wonder if Salome will have a torrid 60 at bats in the majors next year that will get him back into the team’s good graces.

Sign Corky Miller

by TheJay on Nov 11, 2009 5:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

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