Friday's Frosty Mug
Yes, this morning's Mug is late again - my apologies. Here's a quick microcosm of what this week has been like for me: At one point while gathering links this morning, I woke up at my desk, holding the dog. I have no idea how long I was asleep. I don't remember picking up the dog. Let's see what I found to write about:
Apparently the list of people who stopped by for a Molson while Doug Melvin was at the GM meetings also includes Steve Hilliard, who represents John Lackey. It's hard to tell if it was a serious conversation or just an effort to "check in," but one can safely say the Brewers have expressed interest.
Here's a stat that's not very encouraging: Fungoes has a graph ranking free agent pitchers by the difference between their FIP and ERA, which is largely attributed to their team's defensive ability and/or luck. Randy Wolf, Doug Davis, Jon Garland and John Lackey were among the six luckiest. You know what else they all have in common? The Brewers are rumored to have shown interest in them.
Technically, we're still in the "exclusive negotiation period" of free agency, where teams are not allowed to negotiate contracts with other teams' free agents. With that said, the OC Register has a deeper look at those rules, and they're pretty loose. For example, a conversation like this one, reconstructed in yesterday's Mug comments by TheJay, TSSC and Yar Nivek, could probably happen:
I don't think you can offer specific amounts, but you can say, "Hey, it just so happens we need someone at your position [wink wink]" and hear back, "I don’t want to play for Mudville [glare glare]."The Brewers have until sometime tomorrow to make a decision on Braden Looper for next season. They can either agree to pay him $6.5 million to return, or pay him $1 million to leave. After having conversation with the agents of at least four free agent pitchers, Doug Melvin probably has a pretty good idea of what the market will look like this offseason, and I wouldn't be surprised if a decision is announced today.
"You know, the other day, I was so hungry I thought I could eat 20 MILLION HAMBURGERS an HOUR for 4 HOURS. That's 80 MILLION HAMBURGERS."
"I’m looking for my friend BILL. Have you seen any BILLS around here?"
Jonathan Lucroy continues to draw positive reviews in the Arizona Fall League (FanShot), but another possibility has popped up for next season's catching vacancy, as Indians catcher Kelly Shoppach showed up in Rumorville yesterday. I've got a big post on catchers scheduled for later today: stop by around noon to check it out.
Here's a rather odd situation: Ben Sheets, who presumably has some interest in marketing himself to teams this offseason, is nowhere to be found, and at least one pundit is wondering if he may not come back after all. No one has heard from Sheets since his agent said he was throwing off flat ground several weeks ago. Jack Moore of FanGraphs says not to forget about him, though.
If you're feeling nostalgic and don't have anything else going on tomorrow, MLB Network is replaying Sheets' classic 2004 performance, when he struck out eighteen Braves in arguably the best outing of his career.
Larry Stone of The Seattle Times has the full list of arbitration eligible major leaguers for this offseason, so we can once and for all confirm that Carlos Gomez is on it. He qualifies as a Super Two this offseason by two days.
Beyond the Box Score has several visual aids ranking the free agent second basemen this offseason, and of the three graphs, Felipe Lopez leads two (WAR and wOBA), and Craig Counsell leads the other (UZR). Baseball Beat ranked Lopez as the fourth best free agent second baseman. They also rank Mike Cameron as the best center fielder, and Counsell as the fourth best shortstop.
Ryan Braun became just the third Brewer ever and the first since Paul Molitor in the 80s to take home back-to-back Silver Slugger Awards. Prince Fielder and Braun have combined to win the award three times in the last three seasons: Before that, the Brewers had only won one (Carlos Lee in 2005) since 1990.
There's a bunch of stuff in the minors today:
- As Dan Walsh mentioned in yesterday's Mug comments, there's a rumor floating around that disappointing prospect Brent Brewer is considering quitting baseball to play college football. Brewer is reportedly planning a recruiting visit to Oklahoma State in the near future. Joshua Kusnick, who represents Brewer, said the report is just a rumor.
- Brewer ranked fourth in Wisconsin Sports Tap's look at shortstop prospects in the organization. A 2006 draft pick, Brewer was ranked behind Josh Prince and Scooter Gennett. Both are 2009 draft picks, and Gennett has yet to make his pro debut.
- Speaking of shortstops, Alcides Escobar was the shortstop on Topps' AAA All Star Team.
- As the AFL season winds down, the Brewer who has gained the most in Arizona is almost certainly Zach Braddock, who has an ERA below 1 and hasn't allowed a hit in his last five innings of work. Braddock also shows up among the leaders in a couple of PitchF/x categories: getting called strikes and getting batters to swing and miss.
- The Timber Rattlers have moved on to second base in the voting for their 15th Anniversary Team. Click here to read more about the nominees, including 2009 Rattler Brett Lawrie.
- Baseball Intellect gave me a sneak peek behind their pay wall this week so I could take a look at some video and a nice scouting report on the delivery of Eric Arnett. They have a few paragraphs with some notes on Arnett's mechanics and velocity, along with a condensed video showing dozens of pitches from one of Arnett's recent outings. They also have a similar report on Jake Odorizzi. They're brief scouting reports and videos, but if you'd like to see these guys pitch for yourself, there are worse ways to spend $3.
Royals: Signed infielder Wilson Betemit to a minor league deal.
As I mentioned before, I've got a lot more on catchers later today, but here's a link to consider before then: Circling the Bases has a preview of the free agent market for backstops. With the exception of Bengie Molina, every catcher on the market is projected to make the same or less as what Jason Kendall made last season.
The Hardball Times has a look at the successes of the high, inside fastball. There's a lot of graphs, stats and considerations in there, but it seems like they're missing a bigger point: If a pitcher has the control to consistently throw a fastball over ANY corner of the strike zone, they're going to be successful.
I've heard others complain about this, and yesterday it happened to me: After checking the results on yesterday's Thinker, I blew an hour at Sporcle taking other quizzes. My favorites from the last 24 hours:
- Name all the members of the NCAA FBS. (I got 107)
- Name the conference of these D-I basketball teams. (I had somewhere in the mid-20's.)
- This one is Mental Floss, not Sporcle, but name the 16 teams to appear in the most Final Fours. (I had 11.)
Happy birthday today to Mark Kiefer, who made 44 appearances as a Brewer in the 90's and turns 41 today.
Oh, and further proof that the right writer can make you believe anything: Julie Scelfo of The New York Times romanticizes the art of staring into your neighbors' windows. (h/t Amy K. Nelson)
Drink up.
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29 comments
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Comments
Brent Brewer "Rumor"
I’m not sure how it can be a “rumor” when Brewer is making official visits to schools and is directly quoted in the scout.com story.
I’m guessing he changed his mind since he talked to the author. I highly doubt the Oklahoma State scout.com author made up the story.
by DWalsh on Nov 13, 2009 10:19 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
It's also possible he hasn't talked to his agent about it.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by KLSnow on Nov 13, 2009 11:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
His agent
had this to say over at brewerfan.net: (apparently does understand the ’ key)
How can I write or blog that this isnt true at all? I dont know, how about the fact I have talked to Brent since all this was published and discussed at length with him and his family what his plans are. At this point Id love to be taken more seriously than a scout.com writeup. Obviously he’s had some struggles with baseball but he is not going on any visits and this again is 100 percent untrue and nobody, not scout.com and not anyone here is a better source than I am. Thats how I can say that and blog about it.
by DWalsh on Nov 13, 2009 11:44 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Final Four teams
I got all but 1
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Nov 13, 2009 10:24 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
While I agree that too much is being read into Melvin's comment about Sheets ...
I wonder why Casey Close hasn’t put out a press release in the wake of ’Stache’s remark. A simple: “Ben continues to work diligently on his rehab, and I’ve already spoken to several teams who are interested in him for next season” and the thing blows over. Isn’t this one of the reasons players have agents — to stamp out little fires like this?
by Rubie Q on Nov 13, 2009 10:37 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Maybe Melvin's quote was out of context...
did he really mean no one? or did he mean no one in the Brewer organization?
The latter is far more likely than the former… unless he really doesn’t want to play in 2010.
by Mykenk on Nov 13, 2009 10:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It could be either one.
But, regardless, if you’re Sheets’ agent, don’t you put something out there?
by Rubie Q on Nov 13, 2009 10:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
FIP - ERA comments
It’s not just the difference that matters, but what their xFIP was…
(The article indicates it used Expected FIP, not FIP)
ERA xFIP DER
Randy Wolf: 3.23 4.28 .749
Doug Davis: 4.12 4.78 .709
Jon Garland(ARI): 4.29 4.82 .702
Jon Garland(LAN): 2.72 3.82 .713
John Lackey: 3.83 4.11 .701
(All stats courtesty The Hardball Times)
DER (Defensive Efficiency Ratio) is equivalent to ( 1 – BABIP against), so only Wolf looks a little lucky there, with everyone else in the BABIPa range of .299 to .287.
Based on xFIP alone, every one of these pitchers would have improved the Brewers rotation. Ranking them on these statistics, Lackey is best (no surprise), then Garland, Wolf, and lastly Davis. I put Garland ahead of Wolf based on DER.
Of course what matters is if DM gives them a contract more in line with their ERA or their xFIP.
by Yar Nivek on Nov 13, 2009 10:50 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
"every one of these pitchers would have improved the Brewers rotation"
Who wouldn’t have improved the Brewers rotation?
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Nov 13, 2009 11:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ruben Quevedo
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by KLSnow on Nov 13, 2009 11:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
But accurate.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 13, 2009 12:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Jeff Suppan
oh wait…
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
by Hyatt on Nov 13, 2009 11:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Although, to put it in perspective...
Looper had a 4.90 xFIP, making Doug Davis only a marginal improvement over Looper.
Suppan was at 5.22, with a DER of .686 (BABIPa .314), but historically he has had high BABIPa. Probably because he’s not that good. But he takes the ball every fifth day!
Also, Mike Burns had an FIP of 4.61, better than Davis in limited playing time.
So far from this exercise, all I’ve learned is that, contrary to prior beliefs, DM should NOT sign DD.
by Yar Nivek on Nov 13, 2009 12:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Does Ken Macha
Stay on as skipper if the Brewers don’t make the post-season and finish sub .500… or one or the other?
Goooooo-mez!
by Drew C on Nov 13, 2009 11:47 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Who knows..
Depends if Mark allows Doug to continue running the joint.
by SgtClueLs on Nov 13, 2009 11:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
as doug goes, so goes macha. Anything short of relevant september baseball should end Doug here.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
by Hyatt on Nov 13, 2009 11:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hard to dream the dream
When we have to count on Suppan to pitch well, Parra and Bush rebound and some mystery player to pitch instead of Looper.
I for one am prepared for the excuse of Loop had a bad knee to justify the signing tomorrow.
by SgtClueLs on Nov 13, 2009 12:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Psst!
You can set up the Gomez thing as a signature by clicking your username (or otherwise going to your profile) and hitting Edit Profile in the top right. That way you don’t have to type it every time.
Sign Corky Miller
by TheJay on Nov 13, 2009 12:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I liked the old way.
It was the gritty way to make a signature.
by Zorakathura on Nov 13, 2009 1:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Look at that.
It’s, like, 3% less irritating already.
by Rubie Q on Nov 13, 2009 12:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs






























