CHONE Projections for 2010

Best projection system out there. The link takes you to the Brewers, go back to the parent BaseballProjection.com link to see other team pages and the free agent page.

9 months ago Jordan M 25 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Interesting.

CHONE predicts that Carlos Gomez will have a better OBP next year than JJ Hardy. That would be pretty awesome.

by NoahJ on Nov 15, 2009 3:20 PM CST reply actions

Not if...

…there is a huge difference in slugging.

I would certainly hope my slap hitting CF would have a higher OBP than a guy who has never been a good OBP guy but is capable of hitting 25 home runs.

by badgermaniac on Nov 15, 2009 5:40 PM CST up reply actions

Yes

But Hardy has always been near league-average in OBP. If Gomez is league average in OBP, it would be a marvelous thing.

by NoahJ on Nov 15, 2009 6:17 PM CST up reply actions

Its been a while since I sifted through Sean's methodology

but…should the relatively optimistic OBP projection be taken with a grain of salt? Does he extrapolate the data from last season?

Just my quick takes:

Its somewhat amusing to me that he’s projecting Gerut’s R/150 to be 5th on the team, and he’ll likely be a bench player. He is certainly being optimistic about Gerut’s line.

Looks like a decent regression he’s predicting for McGehee, with Mat Gamel looking only marginally better.

I’d be just fine with Hart posting that line.

The starting offense (if LuCroy is indeed the starting catcher) looks rather bleak, with the exception of Fielder and Braun, of course.

I’ll bet Jon Knott doesn’t get 338 ABs.

Can’t wait for pitchers and fielders.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 15, 2009 5:27 PM CST reply actions

whoops

first line in body should have read:

but…should the relatively optimistic OBP projection for Rickie Weeks be taken with a grain of salt? Does he extrapolate the data from last season?

Sorry ’bout that.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 15, 2009 5:28 PM CST up reply actions

It's just a weighted average, regressed, with some adjustment for age and other peripheral stats

It’s not really extrapolated, if I get what you mean by that word in this situation.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Nov 15, 2009 6:59 PM CST up reply actions

Well, extrapolated

Don’t have a full season of data, so they take what he was at at the point he stopped playing and set it to “on pace” averages.

Similar, but not exactly to how ERA is an extrapolation.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 15, 2009 7:12 PM CST up reply actions

Isn't OBP already basically that?

I mean, if a player has a .350 in 50 games, extrapolated over 162 games it would still be .350, wouldn’t it?

by NoahJ on Nov 15, 2009 7:22 PM CST up reply actions

It's regressed towards the average

Also in response to Charlie Marlow below, but if he had a .350 OBP over 200 plate appearances it would add about more PAs of league average OBP (.333) until the point where it can be said to have safely stablized.

The funny thing about Weeks’s breakout year last year is that his OBP was .340. In his 5 seasons, that’s his second-lowest number (his rookie year he had a .333 OBP). The breakout was more that he slugged .100 points above his career average, hit .270, and played better defense. The bigger weight to last year would actually hurt the OBP projection. Weeks’s career OBP right now is .351 and he’s in his prime.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Nov 15, 2009 8:12 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah why'd I pick OBP anyway?

Ah well. Hopefully he can live up to those projections. I’d be happy with that.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 15, 2009 8:43 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah, that's actually not what is done in this situation

it’s all regressed towards the average. If you ever look at a Marcel projection, every player who has never played in the majors before is projected at average. The projection is done by weighting the previous three seasons, adjusting for age, and adding a bunch of exactly average plate appearances because baseball players always move back towards the average.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Nov 15, 2009 8:13 PM CST up reply actions

Got it

I knew there was something I was forgetting.

Thanks, Jordan.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 15, 2009 8:43 PM CST up reply actions

Oops, also

If I remember right, the year that immediately preceeds the current projection year (i.e. 2009, 2010) has a higher weight than do the two previous years (is it like 80, 60, 40 or something?). In any case, that puts a higher weight on the (arguably) ‘breakout’ season Weeks was having in 2009.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 15, 2009 7:14 PM CST up reply actions

Don't take the AB projections seriously at all

Obviously if you add up all the ABs, that’s more than the team can handle.

Also, you can consider the lines of non-major leaguers to be their projected MLE line.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Nov 15, 2009 6:58 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah I'm all good on the AB stuff

just couldn’t remember his methodology. I know its some combo of linear weights, but I wasn’t sure if he took exact data from Weeks’ 2009 or just extrapolated it out to a full season.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 15, 2009 7:19 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah I'm all good on the AB stuff

just couldn’t remember his methodology. I know its some combo of linear weights, but I wasn’t sure if he took exact data from Weeks’ 2009 or just extrapolated it out to a full season.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 15, 2009 7:19 PM CST up reply actions

I can't remember

do you remember his methodology?

by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 15, 2009 7:27 PM CST up reply actions

...A .700+ OPS for Gomez & Escobar?

I’ll take that. I’d echo Charlie’s sentiments above that these seem pretty optimistic.

Suppan, who has seen his ERA rise from 4.12 in his final year in St. Louis to 4.62 in 2007 and 4.96 last year, isn't an option in fantasy leagues - Rotoworld

by Adam P on Nov 15, 2009 5:30 PM CST reply actions

who is jon knott?

by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 15, 2009 5:58 PM CST reply actions 1 recs

The landlord on Three's Company?

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 15, 2009 6:53 PM CST up reply actions

I was wondering the same thing

"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC

by BrewHaHeather on Nov 15, 2009 6:59 PM CST up reply actions

Eh

Near as I can figure out, this is Jon Knott.

Ah, this too. Odd.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 15, 2009 7:17 PM CST up reply actions

a guy that hit 1 for 10 or so in AAA last year

and has 3 career “seasons” in the bigs with a -.2 overall WAR will be our 6th best player? ouch.

by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 15, 2009 7:34 PM CST up reply actions

He was signed at the end of the AAA season along with Tike Redman

Just to fill out the Nashville roster, I believe. He did pretty well in the Atlantic League last year.

Sign Corky Miller

by TheJay on Nov 15, 2009 8:19 PM CST up reply actions

Ooooh

Eyes bleed when I read that stat sheet.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 15, 2009 8:44 PM CST up reply actions

Comments For This Post Are Closed

Search

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Macha Rhapsody

by nullacct 12 days ago

20 comments | 26 recs

Recent FanPosts

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Cincinnati Red Reporter	79	60	.568	0	Lost 4
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	72	65	.525	6	Lost 2
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	66	73	.474	13	Won 2
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	65	74	.467	14	Won 2
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	60	80	.428	19.5	Lost 2
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	47	92	.338	32	Lost 1