Rumorville: Derek Lowe/Corey Hart

by roguejim on Nov 19, 2009 9:30 PM CST

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Braves are shopping Derek Lowe to any team who wants to give a 37-year-old $45 million over the next 3 years. One of the few teams mentioned is our beloved Brewers. Rosenthal insists the two teams were discussing a Lowe/Hart swap, though Mark Bowman, Adam McC's counterpart for the Braves, disagrees, saying the Braves don't care much for Hart's inability to take a walk, and the Brewers don't care much for Lowe's age and disappointing 2009.

I can't imagine trading for Lowe while still keeping Suppan. That's just crazy talk. However, I'd be happy to take on Lowe's contract if it means ridding ourselves of the Soup, even if it means two more seasons of paying an old guy a lot of money. Then again, I think Lowe just had an off-year last season: his four previous seasons produced ERAs under 4, including a sparkling 3.24/1.13 in 2008. And even though this quote from Rosenthal is like channeling a certain former Brewers manager, "Take away three poor starts [last season], and Lowe's ERA would have been 3.87."

It's interesting that Hart is in trade talks, in that we don't have an obvious replacement for him. I recall Jeff offering the idea of keeping Cameron and moving him to right field, plus it would free a spot for Gamel, were he to learn to play right field. Anyway, it's one thing to shop JJ, when you have his replacement knocking on the door. It's another to offer someone who doesn't have an obvious replacement. It reminds of when we were shopping TG Jr before acquiring Cameron.

Further bulletins as events warrant. Hat tip to MLBTR.

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Schafer, etc.

I made a comment the other day regarding the Brewers getting Jordan Schafer in a trade with the Braves. Though thinking about it more now, I don’t think that’s realistic, given that by 2011 they will probably have the youngest OF in the league and maybe one of the best as well. I was just looking for a way to replace Hart is a possible trade with ATL.

Would the Braves just be willing to dump Lowe’s $45mm for Suppan’s $14.5mm?

"I've had the time of my afterlife." --Patrick Swayze

by baumann on Nov 21, 2009 12:20 PM CST via mobile reply actions

If I were to guess

If we traded Hart, I bet we would find someone to platoon with Gerut, probably a guy who can hit lefties.

For the Braves, I guess it depends if they think they can milk anything out of Suppan. Right now, he’s worse than worthless: he’s actually had a negative WAR in each of the past two seasons. If they think that they can get Soup to pitch to Lowe’s level, then you’d have to think they’d consider it. However, I think they’re still high on Lowe’s ability, and expect him to rebound this season.

For the Brewers…well, I agree that Lowe is going to rebound, and would do a Suppan/Lowe swap. Suppan’s $14.5 million ($12.5 in 2009 plus a $2 million buyout) is already a sunk cost, and you’re getting nothing for it. (Actually, less than nothing; you’re costing yourself wins in games he plays in.) If you could trade him for Lowe, you’re essentially majorly upgrading your rotation for free this season, and paying Suppan money for a better pitcher for the next two seasons. (FWIW, his ground ball to fly ball percentage was way off last year, the lowest % since at least 2002. I don’t know if that’s an indicator of old-age suckiness or just a fluke, though. Bill James seems to think he’ll rebound to the tune of a 4.07 ERA.)

The risk, of course, is that if Lowe continues to regress to Suppan level, then DM looks like and idiot and is likely out of a job. Still, if you’re winning now, I think you’d do the deal, and not think twice.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 21, 2009 2:22 PM CST up reply actions

A Lowe Rebound

Even if Lowe rebounds next year, we’ll still be paying $43MM more than is owed to Suppan for a player that is pretty old.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 21, 2009 2:38 PM CST up reply actions

$43 mil?

I think he gets $15 mil/season for the next three seasons, so $45 million over the next three years. Soupcan will get $14.5 million, so Lowe will be getting $30.5 million more, I think.

I mean, he’s still old, and that’s still a lot of money. I guess, given the names being bandied about (Wellemeyer? Halama for the love of ol’ Pete?), I think he’s the most likely so far to be a viable, non-cringe-inducing starter.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 21, 2009 3:27 PM CST up reply actions

yeah, sorry i neglected to subtract suppan's 2010 salary.

you’re right, it’s $30.5 MM. A lot to pay a guy who will be 38 and 39 for those seasons.

I think it would be an intriguing trade. I wouldn’t write it off right away, but I’m not so sure we wouldn’t be better off just waiting for Suppan’s contract to expire on its own.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 21, 2009 4:03 PM CST up reply actions

No, that's true

and frankly, I’d be shocked if we get Lowe.

My biggest fear, and it’s a fear because I think it’s the most likely outcome, is that we clear a ton of salary, and then overspend for really mediocre pitchers.

I don’t think we’re going to be able to trade for a good pitcher (as seen by the Hardy trade, which, upon reflection, isn’t looking so bad at first blush). The only pitching we can trade for is probably, at best, a #3 guy who will give us a 4.4-4.5 ERA.

Assuming we don’t get Lackey, I don’t think we’re going to be able to get a plus FA pitcher. We’ll get a DD or Washburn kind of guy, where we’ll pay too much for mediocrity.

Not that DM had much of a choice, but this is a lousy time to enact a clear-salary-to-get-a-FA-pitcher policy, because there are so few good FA pitchers out there.

Frankly, I think Lowe is our best shot at a #2-type guy. If we’re going to overspend, I’d rather do so for whoever stands the best chance at a quality pitcher. If we can get rid of Soupcan too, so much the better.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 21, 2009 5:34 PM CST up reply actions

I'm still holding out hope that it's a time to clear salary to sign

2 of Bedard, Sheets, Duchsch, Harden… in that order.

Unfortunately, I think it will be only 1 of those guys and an overpay for Davis or Washburn. But that’s really not a horrible offseason play. Beats last year…
We’ll at least have quite a bit of depth.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 21, 2009 9:14 PM CST up reply actions

Peterson

The reason I think that we will even make a move for those guys is that Peterson is such an injury guru. I think that fact will give Melvin enough confidence to make a push for an injury risk. I just hope he doesn’t waste time getting jerked around by Lackey’s agent.

I really think that the Brewers will make a substantial, competitive offer, and Lackey’s agent will use as leverage to boost other offers.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 21, 2009 9:18 PM CST up reply actions

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