Monday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Nov 2, 2009 8:57 AM CST
in Milwaukee Brewers News
Email
PrintSo, with the World Series possibly one day away from being over, we're quickly closing in on hot stove season. Let's start today's rumor roundup with J.J. Hardy. Buster Olney thinks the Brewers could non-tender Hardy, but Al and I both agree that the concept is sheer lunacy. The logic behind it (as cited on MLB Trade Rumors) is beyond flawed:
Olney writes that the Red Sox inquired about Hardy at the deadline, but balked when the Brewers asked for excellent prospects in return. Olney wonders if this is a sign of things to come, and if no market for Hardy develops, would the Brewers be better off non-tendering the former All-Star?So let me get this straight: The Brewers turned down an offer from the Red Sox because it wasn't enough. If nothing else develops, instead of returning to the Red Sox and asking for the same offer, Olney thinks the Brewers could let Hardy walk for free? On what planet does that make sense?
Roguejim also has a look at Hardy's trade value, and MLB Trade Rumors has a look at other shortstops that could be available via trade.
Elsewhere on the (hypothetical) market, we have Mat Gamel. MLB Trade Rumors has him listed among third basemen who could be on the move this offseason. The Nashville Sounds' website has an article from Baseball America with Gamel's reaction to a tough season offensively.
Until Jarrod Washburn either becomes a Brewer or signs somewhere else, his name is most likely going to keep coming up. Keep Turning Up the Heat! has a look at Washburn's recent performance and would accept a one year deal for him, but also notes that the 2010 Brewers are probably in trouble if Washburn is their biggest acquisition.
Meanwhile, Mike Cameron's name continues to come up in connection to other teams: The Cub Reporter has a look at Cameron as a potential fit in Wrigley in 2010, but doesn't think the two sides are a match.
As they suggested they would, the Brewers have found another job in the organization for former interim pitching coach Chris Bosio. He'll serve as the team's advance scout next season (FanShot).
Jonathan Lucroy is off to a hot start in the AFL, as he hit his second home run on Friday. Tom H. also got a positive review from a scout who recently saw Lucroy play for Peoria. Lucroy is probably a candidate to represent the Brewers when rosters are announced later today for the Rising Stars Game, which will be played on Saturday and broadcast live on MLB Network.
For more on Lucroy, the rest of the Brewers in the AFL and Alcides Escobar's season debut weekend in Venezuela, be sure to check out today's Fall/Winter League Update.
Elsewhere in the minors, I may have committed a Twitter foul. Yesterday afternoon I made a joke about the somewhat unexciting nature of Eric Arnett's recent Twitter activity, and today his account has been removed. Hopefully I'm not responsible for that. Meanwhile, Seth McClung has a picture of his daughter's Halloween costume.
Yet again, we have less-than-encouraging news about the depth of prospects in the Brewer organization, at least defensively: Alex Pedicini of The Hardball Times has the top four minor leaguers at each position, ranked by Total Zone, and there's not a single Brewer prospect among the 28 players listed.
Around baseball:
Astros: Declined their option for 2010 on Doug Brocail, and re-signed Geoff Blum to a one year deal worth $1.5 million.
Giants: Re-signed Freddy Sanchez to a two year deal worth $12 million, and declined their 2010 option on Noah Lowry. They also removed pitchers Justin Miller and Kelvin Pichardo from the 40-man roster. Miller is expected to become a free agent.
Indians: Removed pitchers Mike Gosling and Scott Lewis and infielder Niuman Romero from their 40-man roster.
Did Robin Yount use a corked bat? A game used Robin Yount bat with cork in it is up for auction, leading to discussion regarding the possibility. There's also a strong possibility the bat was corked sometime after it left Yount's possession. I'm reluctant to believe Yount corked the bat, for a simple reason: If Yount knew the bat was corked, he most likely also knew that someone would be able to figure out it had been tampered with. Why, then, would he ever give that bat away? That's like giving your autograph on the back of a steroid prescription.
Could John Maine be a reclamation candidate for Rick Peterson in 2010? Amazin' Avenue suggests he's a candidate to be non-tendered, but concludes the Mets should bring him back.
Baseball Analysts has an interesting look at pitchers' velocity and how it changes as the season goes along, broken down by several demographics. Most of the data isn't exceptionally surprising, but the difference in pitch speed between April and the rest of the season is pretty striking. (h/t Beyond the Box Score)
I'll admit it: I'm having a hard time getting excited for or paying much attention to the World Series. I have yet to sit through an entire game, and I've fallen asleep before the end of both games 3 and 4. Yet somehow, I don't feel as bad now that I know that Jon Heyman caught writers playing Scrabble and solitaire on their computers during Game 3.
Among the five candidates (Lopes, Royster, Yost, Sveum and Macha), I think you can make a solid case that Jerry Royster was easily the worst Brewer manager of the 2000's, even among a pretty bad field of contenders. With that said, his stuff apparently works in Korea, where he has led the Lotte Giants to back-to-back postseason appearances and signed a $600,000 contract extension over the weekend.
If you're hanging around the site tomorrow afternoon, you may notice some minor changes in the site as part of the visual refresh of the SB Nation platform. The changes will be minor, but will also be step one in a project to improve the load time of sites, which should be good news for everyone.
On this day in 1974, the Brewers acquired Hank Aaron from Atlanta for outfielder Dave May and minor league pitcher Roger Alexander. Aaron would go on to hit .232/.326/.360 in his final two seasons as a Brewer, make the 1975 All Star team and hit 22 home runs.
Happy birthday today to:
- Taylor Green, 2009 Huntsville Star and current Brewer representative in the Arizona Fall League, who turns 23.
- 2007-09 Nashville Sound Lindsay Gulin, who turns 33.
- Paul Ridgon, who made 27 starts as a 2000-2001 Brewer after coming over from the Indians in the Bob Wickman-Richie Sexson deal, and turns 34.
- Paul Hartzell who appeared in four games for the '84 Brewers and turns 56.
Drink up.
41 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Buster Olney
The Brewers turned down an offer from the Red Sox because it wasn’t enough. If nothing else develops, instead of returning to the Red Sox and asking for the same offer, Olney thinks the Brewers could let Hardy walk for free? On what planet does that make sense?
I think that the point Olney is trying to discuss, is that, generally speaking, MLB is witnessing a weird phenomena where players are going to do better in Arbys than they are in the FA market — and I think Hardy is definitely one of those players. I think that there is no question that if the Brewers non-tendered Hardy, or put him on the FA market, he’d get paid substantially less than he would in Arbys.
A couple of points in defense of Olney.
1.) I think that JJ Hardy is going to get raise for 2010.
2.) Small Market teams should be avoiding giving players like Hardy a raise.
3.) Olney clearly says “if no market develops” — I think Olney is not at all advocating the Brewers letting JJ walk for free — however, if JJ has no market value, is it really smart to pay him more in 2010 than he made in 2009, especially with a suitable replacement in the wings?
4.) Olney said “The Red Sox Inquired” — which I take to mean, Epstein called Melvin, said, “What would it take to get Hardy”, and Melvin said “prospects” to which Epstein replied “pound sand Doug” — I don’t think the BoSox ever made a serious play for Hardy.
Ultimately — I think we will trade Hardy, I do think we will be underwhelmed by what he brings in return.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Nov 2, 2009 9:19 AM CST reply actions
Just wondering
Are we sure that Hardy would get paid more in 2010 than he did in 2009? How much does his performance in 2009 affect his 2010 arby amount, do you think?
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
It's rare for pre-free agency arbitration to lower salary (see Kevin Mench, 2007-2008)
I think Hardy will get a raise through arbitration to ~$5.5 million. I don’t think he would get substantially less than that as a FA. Just look at who else is out there at shortstop. If he rebounds at all, that’s a good deal.
Sign Corky Miller
I think he'd get a 1 year deal at about $8 million, actually, and it would be well worth it
Non-tendering him would be a huge mistake.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
They arent going to non tender him
Its all speculation.
But $8 mil for a declining player, even at 1 year is never going to happen.
"If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base." ~Dave Barry
And really that's a two-year deal at 8 + arbitration for 2011
Even if you don’t believe he’ll get $8 million, it’s hard to see him not getting close to his arb award given the other shortstops out there in FA.
Sign Corky Miller
I don't think Hardy will get 8M
I think he will get 5.5-6M in Arby —
But the question still remains, (assuming JJ has no trade value), why pay him $5.5-6M to sit behind Escobar — of course that makes no sense, so then you need to trade Escobar.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Nov 2, 2009 12:33 PM CST up reply actions
Why do you assume he has no trade value?
I too think the return in a Hardy trade will be somewhat disappointing, but some team(s) will be interested.
Sign Corky Miller
That's the pretense that Olney wrote the article under.
Olney — is not advocating (nor is anyone) non-tendering JJ Hardy, rather, he is saying with the way the current Arby works, it may make sense for teams to non-tender players like Hardy, if the market is not there for them — rather than give them raises to sit on the bench.
If DM can make a trade for Hardy, I think it is obvious that he should… If DM is unable to find a trade partner for Hardy — I think I’d rather non-tender him and spend the money on pitching, rather than blocking Escobar.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Nov 2, 2009 12:47 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, I figured that's what you were getting at after I posted
I just think when you’ve got a guy who would be one of the better players at his position available in FA if he is non-tendered, there’s going to be a market for him. Also, they could just cut Hardy in spring a la Claudio Vargas if there really is no demand for him and they don’t want him on the bench. It would cost them a million or so, but that’s not prohibitive.
Sign Corky Miller
Hmmm...
The only problem with Vargasing Hardy, is that it may prevent us from getting some pitching in the off-season if the $$$s are committed towards his salary.
At the end of the day, I don’t think the difference between non-tendering Hardy, or dumping him for some prospect is going to make any difference on 2010 — Improving our pitching is our #1 priority.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Nov 2, 2009 1:33 PM CST up reply actions
This is interesting
We’ve got some very differing opinions on Hardy’s trade value. There are probably some teams that would agree with FTJ, in that his value isn’t very high. There are probably some teams that would agree with some of the other people on here, that he could be worth a decent prize. However, I think most teams will fall in the middle, and the Brewers won’t be able to get a whole lot in return for him. If they package him with, say, Mat Gamel, though, it would become quite an interesting trade package.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Underwhelming
Is what I think JJ’s trade value is — I also am almost certain he has played his last game as a Brewer
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Nov 2, 2009 2:06 PM CST up reply actions
Keep in mind
He is a top 5 defensive shortstop at a defense-first position. In the major leagues, he has shown his 2007 and 2008 numbers are the norm and 2009 is the fluke year. And in that time period, only one other shortstop in all of baseball hit more HR than Hardy. And Ramirez plays significantly worse defense than Hardy.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 2, 2009 5:12 PM CST up reply actions
I don't know.
I think that in order to prove that 2009 was the fluke year, he needs to come back with a year closer to 2007 and 2008. It’s kind of like how you can’t say there was an economic depression until something like 10 years after it happened. You can’t factually say that 2009 was a fluke until at least a year or two down the road.
Eh...I don't think that analogy works
How about:
If you’re a top 5 performing salesman in your INDUSTRY for two years running, and then have a down year in the third, does that mean your boss automatically thinks of you as a bad salesman? Likely not, and on top of it, aren’t you going to do everything in your power to bust your ass and come out on top again in the 4th year?
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 2, 2009 5:44 PM CST up reply actions
Really the point is, that he's been a productive hitter in greater than half of his career PAs
1267 PAs between 2007 and 2008 and 2298 for his career in the major leagues.
Plus here are career lows achieved in 2009:
AVG, SLG, ISO, wOBA, OPS, LD%, HR/FB
And he had a career high in K%
To me, all of that adds up to a huge upward correction coming in 2010. And keep in mind as putrid as he was offensively last season…he was STILL a 1.4 WAR player.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 2, 2009 5:50 PM CST up reply actions
I don't disagree that he certainly still has good value.
However, on occasion a player that had performed well recently sometimes all of a sudden loses something and maybe doesn’t revert back to the form or promise he had shown. I am not saying that this is the case with Hardy, I am saying that it is certainly possible that 2009 might not have been just a fluke and his career path could trend closer to those numbers.
To me, all of that adds up to a huge upward correction coming in 2010
Why?
Furthermore, this is more the logic used by fantasy league GMs and not actual GMs.
JJ’s trade value will be determined in a large part by what happened, not by some sort of correction that may or may not happen.
I certainly can see some GM trying to “buy low” — and hope they can get good value for JJ, but that doesn’t bode well for the good returns department for the Brewers
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Nov 2, 2009 7:15 PM CST up reply actions
Why? Because that's how it works.
Quit being facetious.
You know as well as I that I wasn’t arguing “he’s got high trade value”, and the whole ‘fantasy GM comment’ is just you being an ass.
I think assuming he is going to bring some middling prospect and only that in trade is a big undervalue. I’ve also said that while I’d like to see a trade involving Michael Bowden and Hardy, that is an overvalue.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 2, 2009 7:27 PM CST up reply actions
Settle down dude.
How what works? A player has a bad 2009, so they are bound to have an upward corresponding correction in 2010?
the whole ‘fantasy GM comment’ is just you being an ass.
Fantastic. Seriously though, the stats you posted in the manner that you did, tend to be arguments frequently seen in fantasy publications, and are not things that a GM is going to use to open his purse strings a bit more.
I think assuming he is going to bring some middling prospect and only that in trade is a big undervalue
Fair enough, I hope you are right.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Nov 2, 2009 7:41 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
And I think assuming GMs don't employ stats people who look at those stats is a bit naive
At least we can agree that many folks’ prognostication on the terrible return Hardy ‘is going to’ net is off the mark.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 2, 2009 10:32 PM CST up reply actions
So this is unrelated to anything, but I can’t think of anywhere else to put it.
Is there a team highlight video for the 2008 season? I heard awhile back that they made a limited release one for the Brewers store, but I can’t find anywhere to buy it online.
As the weather continues to get colder (and the likelihood that we get 30 games with a Looper/Kendall battery in 2010 increase), I think I’m going to need a DVD of the playoff team, a lot of Johnny Walker, or both.
Steve
http://nohuddleoffense.blogspot.com
I got a coupon
at game three of the NLDS that I redeemed at the Brewers store at Miller Park after the New Year. Not sure if it went out for sale. It has an ok year in review and the entire last game of the season against the cubs with all the post-game interviews.
by thefreewheelin76 on Nov 2, 2009 11:06 AM CST up reply actions
There were two ways that I knew of to get that dvd
-The voucher mentioned above, or
-If you bought $100 worth of merch at the fanzone, you got the dvd for free. I think that was for aliited time only though.
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Nov 2, 2009 11:10 AM CST up reply actions
there definitely is one
My son got one when we went to the Brewers rummage sale at Miller Park, Dec. 08.
Hardy
I kike how one down year suddenly makes a player “declining”. It will have very slightly made a difference in his trade value, only as other teams interested are going to use the down year as mark to try for a better trade on their end. He still will bring something decent. Many teams are willing to trade for a SS of his caliber, and there is no sign that next year will so aweful for him.
by Mr. McGehee on Nov 2, 2009 12:58 PM CST via mobile reply actions
*Like, not going for a jewish slur. Mobile keypad fail.
by Mr. McGehee on Nov 2, 2009 12:59 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Just throwing this out there for discussion
Assuming 2009 was an aberration for Hardy (which I think most of us do, as do those discussing his trade value) – why is it the automatic decision to trade him and keep Escobar? Obviously he’s younger and under team control longer, but if Escobar’s main value lies in his defense, and Hardy is already one of the best defensive shortstops in the league (with a much better offensive ceiling to boot), why not trade Escobar for pitching and resign Hardy to a long-term deal?
I’m genuinely asking because I don’t know; how decent does Escobar need to be offensively to be a 4.5-5.0 WAR player like Hardy was pre-2009? Or is it just age/contract related.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I've wondered the same thing
But the only way I can see us trading S-key is if a Felix Hernandez-type player came along.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Absolutely just age/contract related
The Brewers just can’t afford to give up cost-controlled players like Escobar.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
That depends on their goal
If they can net a certifiable ace pitcher that could put the team over the top before all of the other young, cost controlled players walk in 2011, isn’t it worth it?
Or is everyone OK with just…you know…trying real hard to get to the playoffs every year?
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 2, 2009 5:15 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Last question
http://www.brewcrewball.com/2009/2/18/762229/alcides-escobar-and-the-ca
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
And I would think that Hardy will outperform Escobar overall in 2009
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Suit up!
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
Hardy is only a better power hitter than Escobar. Alcides has better defensive range and is just strait up quicker. He will have a better avg but power numbers won’’t be there.
by Mr. McGehee on Nov 3, 2009 7:41 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.8.2012 at 12:59 PM CST)
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Does Billy Beane’s contract extension signal an optimistic dawn for Oakland fans?
- Ask Alex: Will Alex Avila be an All-Star again?
- Create-a-Caption: Matt Cain’s great pair of golf pants
- Kim Kardashian, Kris Humphries autographed ball being auctioned by Twins
- George Brett lawsuit claims his company falsely advertises ion necklaces’ health benefits
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
