Rumorville: John Smoltz, Carl Pavano

by roguejim on Nov 22, 2009 1:47 PM CST Comment 16 comments

Via MLBTR, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has a lot to say about some of baseball's more popular free agents:

3. Carl Pavano, RHP, free agent - According to agent Tom O’Connell, the action on Pavano right now is "very solid.’’ While Pavano may have to wait until John Lackey gets situated, teams in need of a No. 3 type starter may not wait. The Twins and Brewers are very interested.

4. John Smoltz, RHP, free agent - He apparently is very excited about what he’ll be able to do with a full offseason and spring training. Now the question is, on whose staff does he end up? The Cardinals still want him, but don’t rule out the pitching-hungry Brewers.

Carl Pavano has not been good since 2004, and only once since then has he topped 126 innings. Smoltz only pitched 78 innings last season and 28 the season before. 40 of those innings in Boston were pretty forgettable, but he pitched well enough in St. Louis to make him a worthwhile case study for our new pitching coach.

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Nick Cafardo

Never met a Brewers “rumor” he didn’t like.

by TheJay on Nov 22, 2009 2:31 PM CST reply actions

technically

neither has Roguejim, but that’s a good thing

by Donald Driver on Nov 22, 2009 4:13 PM CST up reply actions

I'd object

but I was thinking the same thing. Covering Brewers rumors the way Brewers rumors fear!

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 22, 2009 4:20 PM CST up reply actions

Huzzah!

The mayor of Rumorville rules with an iron fist.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Nov 22, 2009 5:37 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

you at least take pleasure in the ridiculous

by morineko on Nov 22, 2009 6:48 PM CST up reply actions

I would take either of those guys

Pavano was actually quite good last season, and because of his overinflated ERA he’ll still be incredibly cheap. Bill James projects him at 200 IP and a 4.23 FIP.

Smoltz is obviously a durability risk, but aside from his time in Boston when has he not been excellent? If he settles for another short-term contract (maybe incentives-laden) at somewhere less than $7 million/year, that’s another great bargain.

These are the type of starters the Brewers should be aggressively targeting, not Washburn/Lowe (or Lackey, for that matter)

Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Secretly, I am Carlos Gomez*

by SRB on Nov 22, 2009 5:26 PM CST reply actions

Lackey

I’m starting to think that a lot of the big market teams will stay away from John Lackey, and wait until next offseason to try for Lee/Halladay/Webb. It’s possible that he could fall to a team like us, so I’m not ready to rule it out yet.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 22, 2009 6:03 PM CST up reply actions

Pavano mystifies me

How do you have a 4.00 FIP and a 5.10 ERA? And projecting Pavano to pitch 200 innings? He hasn’t reached that many since 2004. (OK, so he had 199 last year. Still….)

Then again, the Rambling one also thinks he’s a very solid pitcher, so maybe I’m just missing something.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 22, 2009 6:47 PM CST up reply actions

It's very possible to have one year of random variation

His FIP and tRA both suggested he should have a low 4 ERA last year. I’d project him for about 4.2 to 4.4, and 150 innings. He’d be a very worthwhile pickup, and would probably come cheap because a lot of GMs can’t look past ERA.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Nov 22, 2009 9:26 PM CST up reply actions

I wouldn't want any more than, say, $4M committed to him

even with incentives.

But he’ll almost certainly outperform Suppan next year.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 22, 2009 10:18 PM CST up reply actions

you have a 4.00 FIP and a 5.10 ERA by

posting an above average (read: unlucky) BABIP and below average LOB% while not walking anyone and having a decent K%. that’s the simple version of course, but i think it’s pretty telling that Pavano was underrated in 2009.

to boot, look at the defenses behind Pavano in 2009. guys like Orlando Cabrera, Luis Valbuena, Jhonny Peralta, Brendan Harris, Casilla, Cuddyer, Delmon Young, Ben Francisco, Asdrubal Cabrera: all pretty bad fielders.

not saying that would change w/ the Brewers, but it can’t be any worse.

"I've had the time of my afterlife." --Patrick Swayze

by baumann on Nov 23, 2009 10:08 AM CST up reply actions

I wouldnt touch him

He gets hit, alot. Luck or not, when a pitch to contact type of guy like Pavano, who has unspectacular stuff, throws the ball theres a very good chance its going to be hit. And those hits are eventually going to fall into play as basehits.

The only thing that makes him seem relatively worthwhile is that he throws strikes. put him in front of a mediocre defense and you are looking for trouble. Granted, he did play for two of the worst defenses last year, its just too risky for the Brewers. He would be a Suppan clone. This team needs some swing and miss type pitchers, not more contact guys.

by backtocali on Nov 25, 2009 9:18 AM CST up reply actions

We're never going to get swing-and-miss type pitchers

Because, frankly, strikeout pitchers without control problems are always going to be too expensive to retain for a club like ours.

But if we can get some swing-and-hit-a-ground-ball type pitchers, we’ll do just fine.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Nov 25, 2009 10:55 AM CST up reply actions

Like Jeff Suppan?

by backtocali on Nov 25, 2009 11:05 AM CST up reply actions

Huh?

1.41 career GB/FB? I wouldn’t say he’s a groundball pitcher.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 25, 2009 7:39 PM CST up reply actions

Pavano's SwStrk% was 8.7

Suppan was 5.7
Looper was 6.5
Bush was 7.1

For reference:
Parra was 8.6
Gallardo was 9.2

Sabathia was 11
Pavano was hittable last year. That doesn’t necessarilly mean that Pavano is hittable.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Nov 25, 2009 3:29 PM CST up reply actions

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