Free Agent Starting Pitching: BCB Weighs In
by roguejim on Nov 28, 2009 8:51 AM CST
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It just occurred to me that the Winter Meetings are coming up fast, and we haven't told Doug Melvin which two free agent pitchers we wanted. (Frankly, that's probably how the Hardy/Gomez trade went down: we didn't specifically tell DM for whom Hardy should be traded, and he went rogue and made the trade himself.) Assuming we can't (and shouldn't!) get into a bidding war on the services of John Lackey, which two of the free agent pitchers listed below should we try to sign, and why? Be sure to consider salary when choosing.
(Note 1: I'm not including the likes of Mulder and Halama, as you can't sign them and assume they'll win a spot.)
(Note 2: I haven't seen much written about Kelvim Escobar, who hasn't had an ERA north of 4 since 2003. The Red Sox are asking about him, the Brewers should too.)
(Note 3: Shawn Hill is cheap, a sinkerballer, often injured, and one of the few ex-Expos out there not yet 30. A perfect flier for the Brewers.)
Here's the list:
- Aroldis Chapman, LHP who throws 100 MPH, albeit erratically
- Randy Wolf
- Rich Harden
- Erik Bedard
- John Smoltz
- Andy Pettitte
- Joel Pineiro
- Jarrod Washburn
- Ben Sheets
- Brad Penny
- Justin Duchscherer
- Pedro Martinez. Vote for Pedro!
- Doug Davis
- Jason Marquis
- Jon Garland
- Vicente Padilla
- Carl Pavano
- Braden Looper
- Randy Johnson
- Mike Hampton
- Hisanori Takahashi
- Paul Byrd
- Ugh...I'll opt for choosing only one free agent and trading Gamel for the other
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I haven't decided yet
But after living through the league-leader in home runs allowed, I’m a little leery of signing the leaders in walks allowed (Doug Davis) and earned runs allowed (Carl Pavano).
It’s also amazing how few durable starters there are. Randy Wolf is considered the epitome of healthy, as he was definitively un-healthy in the four seasons prior to 2008.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
1 of 3
Without spending much time on BR and without knowing salaries here are my top three that I would look at first…
Justa Douche
Bedard
Harden
by Saberilliterate on Nov 28, 2009 9:50 AM CST reply actions
I wanted to know why we hate Doug Davis so much
When he’s had an ERA under 4.50 six of the last seven seasons. Then I saw his WHIPs and BBs on his Baseball Reference page. Holy cow.
311 baserunners allowed last year, and only 103 scored. I want some of his luck.
I'm just asking for injuries here, but...
Harden
Wolf
Bedard
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
If you've got enough depth, you can afford some injury risk.
And if Halama, Capuano and Mulder are all potential replacements, then that’s probably enough depth.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by Kyle Lobner on Nov 28, 2009 11:28 AM CST up reply actions
Three guys who haven't pitched in the majors for a couple years?
I don’t think that’s depth – that’s more like hope.
don't forget, if we're adding 2 pitchers, that adds Suppan and Bush/Parra to the depth.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
How do you figure?
I’d assume right now, the first guy acquired replaces Looper, and the second one might replace one of those three guys.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
er yeah, i meant to group all three of those together.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Say no to buying high on Randy Wolf.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 28, 2009 5:51 PM CST up reply actions
Wolf should be the prime target
In my opinion, the search should start with Wolf so my three to go after are:
1) Wolf
2) Duchscherer
3) Harden
Harden scares me a bit because everyone knows there has been a structural problem in that shoulder for like 3-4 seasons and he’s just trying to ride it out and pitch till it snaps, but if it’s a short deal I think it’s worth it. Wolf needs to be the prime target because he’s durable and consistent and would be a nice stabilizer.
by Brewcityhoya13 on Nov 28, 2009 12:05 PM CST reply actions
The girlfirend asked what I was laughing at.
I had to tell her that she wouldn’t understand, and I’d have to explain wayy to much.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Joel
Pineiro would be good…..
Goooooo-mez!
by Drew C on Nov 28, 2009 1:58 PM CST via mobile reply actions
No more ex-Cards
who tank once they get here.
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Nov 28, 2009 2:01 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
John Smoltz
Why no trace of him while Paul Byrd gets a token name drop?
My top Three:
1. Rich Harden – Canadian. Put up better numbers than CC down the stretch in ’08 (outside of IP…)
2. John Smoltz – It would be a one year deal with a mutual option. ZGood veteran presence with Hoffman in the clubhouse
3. Ben Sheets – I know there has been much speculation on his disdain for the organization (and if this is truly so, then disregard), but he is undoubtedly the most talented pitcher on the free agent market (even moreso than Harden, who is undoubtedly more talented than John Lackey). Furthermore, I would love to see Milwaukee’s Golden Boy finally deliver on his infinite promise in the Beer Stripes (we better continue donning the ‘82s). And it would save cash because there has to be a few warehouses full of old Sheets jerseys that haven’t been shipped to Tanzania (cough IVERSON cough) yet.
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
Just an oversight on Smoltz
I’ll get around to fixing it. Thanks!
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
I don’t see why the Brewers wouldn’t go all in on the high-risk/high-reward “injury risk” pitchers. Even if one of them goes down, assuming Bush is offered arbitration we’ll still have the safety net of retaining 4/5 of last year’s (atrocious, though certainly underperforming) rotation. I would like to see:
1) Pavano
2) Sheets
Given his poor ERA and the fact that our main competition (Minnesota) already has too many starters to begin with, Pavano will probably be dirt-cheap like he was last season. I don’t see how the Brewers can pass up a guy who will make not far from $1.5-2 million and who had a 2009 season and 2010 projections significantly better than other free agents like Washburn.
That would also give the Brewers more than enough money to sign someone like Sheets, even if the Yankees and other big market teams are interested too. If there really is bad-blood between Sheets/Milwaukee, then I would sign one of the other similar pitchers in the order of: 1) Smoltz, 2) Bedard, 3) Duchscherer, 4) Harden.
I don’t know if they will, but it is certainly entirely feasible for them to make both those signings even within the rather limited payroll space. They could probably sign Pavano/Sheets and still have a few million to spend on other pieces still without increasing total payroll from 2009.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Secretly, I am Carlos Gomez*
Pitchers with good stuff
Brewers need to add a #2 and #3. Being forced to rely on Parra would be a mistake.
Harden, Penny and Duchscherer are at the top of my list for the Brewers. Harden and Penny have plus stuff and should be relatively affordable on shorter length deals. The Duch has had excellent results and would be a good fit as well. Adding all 3 would completely solidify the staff behind Yo and take the pressure of Parra and the rest of the holdovers from 2009.
Harden 2yrs/$18M
Penny 2/$15-16
Duch 1/2 + incentives
by Milwaukee's Gr8est on Nov 28, 2009 4:59 PM CST reply actions
Escobar is really interesting to me
I wonder how much he’ll cost this year. And whether his arm will just completely detach from his body.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 28, 2009 5:53 PM CST up reply actions
If you could guarantee he'd be healthy
I’d assume he’d be more sought after than Lackey
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
my take
I’d vote for the following
1) 1 injury risk: Sheets/Bedard/Harden in that order. Whichever will sign for 1 yr + incentives + 1 yr option. Sheets may be the safest bet of all SPs and I expect him to sign somewhere for big $$$. But if I’m wrong I’d gladly take him back. Bedard’s Canadian, ’nuff said.
2) John Smoltz. Just 2 years removed from his ace status, best competitor in the game, exactly the type of clubhouse presence you want around our young guns.
When the above options stop laughing at our lowball offers I’d go after Brad Penny.
just from listening to him talk in the playoffs last year
He could teach our young pitchers A LOT.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Great idea, RJ
I wish more of the regulars would have posted their top 3, especially, some of the guys who are the most critical of DM, like FTJ and Charlie.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
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