Free Agent Starting Pitching: BCB Weighs In

But after living through the league-leader in home runs allowed, I’m a little leery of signing the leaders in walks allowed (Doug Davis) and earned runs allowed (Carl Pavano).

It’s also amazing how few durable starters there are. Randy Wolf is considered the epitome of healthy, as he was definitively un-healthy in the four seasons prior to 2008.

Without spending much time on BR and without knowing salaries here are my top three that I would look at first…

Justa Douche
Bedard
Harden

When he’s had an ERA under 4.50 six of the last seven seasons. Then I saw his WHIPs and BBs on his Baseball Reference page. Holy cow.

311 baserunners allowed last year, and only 103 scored. I want some of his luck.

Harden
Wolf
Bedard

Guaranteed playoff spot

I don’t see why the Brewers wouldn’t go all in on the high-risk/high-reward “injury risk” pitchers. Even if one of them goes down, assuming Bush is offered arbitration we’ll still have the safety net of retaining 4/5 of last year’s (atrocious, though certainly underperforming) rotation. I would like to see:

1) Pavano
2) Sheets

Given his poor ERA and the fact that our main competition (Minnesota) already has too many starters to begin with, Pavano will probably be dirt-cheap like he was last season. I don’t see how the Brewers can pass up a guy who will make not far from $1.5-2 million and who had a 2009 season and 2010 projections significantly better than other free agents like Washburn.

That would also give the Brewers more than enough money to sign someone like Sheets, even if the Yankees and other big market teams are interested too. If there really is bad-blood between Sheets/Milwaukee, then I would sign one of the other similar pitchers in the order of: 1) Smoltz, 2) Bedard, 3) Duchscherer, 4) Harden.

I don’t know if they will, but it is certainly entirely feasible for them to make both those signings even within the rather limited payroll space. They could probably sign Pavano/Sheets and still have a few million to spend on other pieces still without increasing total payroll from 2009.

Bedard
Wolf
Duchsch

I also wouldn’t mind Sheets, but I’m a little hesitant that he’s not totally over his injury yet.

Brewers need to add a #2 and #3. Being forced to rely on Parra would be a mistake.

Harden, Penny and Duchscherer are at the top of my list for the Brewers. Harden and Penny have plus stuff and should be relatively affordable on shorter length deals. The Duch has had excellent results and would be a good fit as well. Adding all 3 would completely solidify the staff behind Yo and take the pressure of Parra and the rest of the holdovers from 2009.

Harden 2yrs/$18M
Penny 2/$15-16
Duch 1/2 + incentives

pavano, escobar, sheets

Bedard & The Duke

I’d vote for the following

1) 1 injury risk: Sheets/Bedard/Harden in that order. Whichever will sign for 1 yr + incentives + 1 yr option. Sheets may be the safest bet of all SPs and I expect him to sign somewhere for big $$$. But if I’m wrong I’d gladly take him back. Bedard’s Canadian, ’nuff said.
2) John Smoltz. Just 2 years removed from his ace status, best competitor in the game, exactly the type of clubhouse presence you want around our young guns.

When the above options stop laughing at our lowball offers I’d go after Brad Penny.

I wish more of the regulars would have posted their top 3, especially, some of the guys who are the most critical of DM, like FTJ and Charlie.