Looking back at community projections: Second basemen

by Kyle Lobner on Nov 6, 2009 2:00 PM CST in Statistical Analysis Comment 0 comments

Ok, after a day off for The Thinker, let's jump back into this with a look at second basemen:

Take a moment to think, once again, about what happened at second base for the Brewers, and the somewhat miraculous results. Early in the season, Rickie Weeks went down for the year and the Brewers were left with turmoil at the top of the order and at second base. Six players played second at one point or another for the Brewers, yet somehow the position was one of the team's most productive.

Projections:

Rickie Weeks
Projected: .257/.362/.425
Actual: .272/.340/.517

Craig Counsell
Projected: .231/.322/.332
Actual: .285/.357/.408

Casey McGehee
Projected: ..279/.334/.393
Actual: .301/.360/.499

TheJay, while refusing to predict exactly who would end up playing in Weeks' place, nearly nailed a 2009 prediction for Weeks, saying: "Hey, someone has to figure he’ll both bash up his wrist again and hit about what he’s done so far in his career." Wekks was ahead of his career numbers at the time, but sure enough, a wrist injury ended his season significantly early.

Craig Counsell's playing time projection at this and the other infield positions will probably seem low, but keep in mind, Counsell wasn't actually re-signed for 2009 yet when we made these projections.

Finally, there's probably not a single player at any position we missed on more than Casey McGehee. Back in January, we collectively projected him to get roughly two and a half percent of the plate appearances at second base, and didn't project him to play third at all.

Playing time:

Player	Projected %	Actual %	Diff
Rickie Weeks	80.2%	21.2%	-59%
Jason Bourgeois	6.1%	0%	-6.1%
Hernan Iribarren	5.6%	.4%	-5.2%
Alcides Escobar	2.7%	0%	-2.7%
Casey McGehee	2.7%	12.1%	+9.4%
Craig Counsell	2.2%	27.1%	+24.9%
Bill Hall	.5%	0%	-.5%
Felipe Lopez	0%	38.6%	+38.6%
Frank Catalanotto	0%	.5%	+.5%

Wow, look at that mess. I didn't even know how to sort this table to appropriately display the chaos. And yet somehow, it worked.

At this point in January, Jason Bourgeois had just wrapped up a long hitting streak in Mexico, and if you had told me the Brewers would use six second basemen in 2009 and he wouldn't be one of them, I would have been shocked. In a world where Craig Counsell had yet to re-sign, Bourgeois projected to be Weeks' top backup. Instead, he spent most of the season patrolling the outfield in Nashville.

Overall: