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Updated 2010 Brewers Roster/Salary Predictions



With the question-mark surrounding who the Brewers would get in return for JJ Hardy already settled, and with it looking as though your probable starting centerfielder for 2010 will be Carlos Gomez (love it or hate it - I happen to be a fan), I figured it's time for another look at the 2010 roster.  Feel free of correct my arbitration estimates (or other errors) - and I know there are a lot of these projected rosters out there, but it's the offseason; how else am I suppose to occupy my allocated baseball-time?

Aside from arbitration figures, I'm making a few assumptions:

1) Looper's option will not be exercised.  Aside from the fact that Looper kind of sucks, I'm also going off Melvin's earlier claim that he's looking to add two starters.  Gallardo/Suppan/Bush/Parra will all already be on the team next year, so I'm not sure how/why Looper would be brought back too.

2) I'm making the teary-eyed assumption that McClung will be off the team in 2010.  That's largely conjectural, but if I'm wrong it shouldn't have a huge effect on the total salary (I imagine he'd make $2,250,000 or so in arbitration)

3) Based on an interview with Doug Melvin earlier today (linked in a fanshot) I got the impression that Lucroy might be given a chance to make the team out of spring training.  I've extremely optimistically listed the two catchers on the 25-man as Rivera/Lucroy, but more realistically the Brewers probably need to add a starting catcher this offseason as well (NOT KENDALL, Doug).

(I've put ages at the start of spring training in parentheses)

C - Mike Rivera (33) [ARB: $750,000]
C - Jonathan Lucroy (23) [$400,000]
1B - Prince Fielder (25) [$11,000,000]
2B - Rickie Weeks (27) [ARB: $2,750,000]
SS - Alcides Escobar (23) [$400,000]
3B - Casey McGehee (27) [$400,000]
IF - Mat Gamel (24) [$400,000]
IF - ???
LF - Ryan Braun (26) [$1,300,000, rounded up]
CF - Carlos Gomez (24) [ARB: $1,000,000]
RF - Corey Hart (27) [ARB: $4,000,000]*
OF - Jody Gerut (32) [ARB: $2,000,000]

SP - Yovani Gallardo (23) [$400,000]
SP - Dave Bush (30) [ARB: $4,250,000]
SP - Manny Parra (27) [$400,000]
SP - ???
SP - ???
CL - Trevor Hoffman (42) [$7,500,000]
RHP - Jeff Suppan (35) [$12,750,000]
RHP - David Riske (33) [$4,500,000]
RHP - Todd Coffey (29) [ARB: $2,250,000]
RHP - Carlos Villanueva (26) [ARB: $2,000,000]
RHP - Mark DiFelice (33) [$400,000]
LHP - Mitch Stetter (29) [$400,000]
LHP - Chris Narveson (28) [$400,000]

X - David Weathers [$400,000]
X - Braden Looper [$1,000,000]*
X - Bill Hall [$7,150,000]

Projected Total Payroll: $68,200,000
(Rounded '09 Payroll): $80,200,000
Potential Free Agent $: $12,000,000

(* - Fixed based on comments)

That’s obviously a very rough estimate, but given the $12 million figure, the fact that the Brewers payroll has been steadily increasing the past few years (hopefully, even more so in a supposedly “win-now” year like 2010) and the fact that I was pretty generous with arbitration, I’d say it gives them between $12 and $17 million to spend on two starting pitchers, an infielder, probably a catcher, and maybe some relief help.

One thing that jumps out; that is an incredibly young team (especially if Lucroy somehow manages to win the starting job) with a heck of a lot of upside.  There are still a few major question marks, but I'm certainly excited already for the first pitch of 2010.

What do you all think?  Is that enough payroll flexibility to fill out the roster and field a division-winning team next year?  Do one of Gamel/McGehee need to start packing their bags?  Who should Melvin specifically target? 

I'd like to see him bring Sheets back, resign Counsell for the utility spot, bring in some high-upside reclamation projects (Mulder and Baek come to mind, I'm also partial to an under-the-radar return from Capuano), and look for a cheap veteran catcher to compete with the internal options (Chris Coste, maybe?)

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speculation

I was thinking about doin the math, but i was to lazy…. So thanks SRB
The first thing notice is that the brewers added 3 contracts last year lopez, vargas, and weathers. I couldnt find any info on how much they paid those three. My assumption is that the end of the year payroll was closer to 85 million.

I see counsell singing for 1 million and maybe them goin after 2 sp such as sheets, duchscherer, bedard, harden, Davis, or Washburn. This way gamel wont have to be traded! Im guessing sheets bedard or will sign for 2yrs 16 mil. Maybe Davis or Washburn will only cost 2yr 12mil. As of right now it is only speculation…

by buschoid on Nov 7, 2009 12:17 AM CST reply actions  

Arbs

I’d speculate Gomez will make around $1.5M.

Corey Hart will probably ask for $4.5 the Brewers will come in at $3.75, they’ll meet at $4.25.

I’ll check my old thread later today, and update its content. Unless you took numbers and etc. from it, in which case I guess I won’t have to.

Also regarding ‘win now’: as the kids say these days “lol”.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 7, 2009 9:04 AM CST reply actions  

I took the Gomez figure from a community prediction over at Twinkie Town, but I think you’re right it could go higher. Luckily defensive players seem to get screwed in the arbitration process, so I don’t think $1 million is necessarily too low though.

$4.5 million seems like a pretty high asking price from Hart, especially coming off a down season – though again, $3.5 million could still be too low.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Sign Sheets!*

by SRB on Nov 7, 2009 12:25 PM CST up reply actions  

It seems like all of baseball is viewing defense differently, of late.

Its like Jeff smacked all the GM’s over the head with defensive metrics and they all woke up. That’s (obviously) the basis of my thinking that he’ll get around the $1.5M-ish mark.

Yeah $4.5M looks high for Hart, but that’s what I think he’ll ask for, with the Brewers at $3.75. ’Stache and Co. have never gone to a hearing with a player, and typically they meet at the midpoint or slightly above. Although if Hart asks for less, the $4.25 is sort of moot.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 7, 2009 6:15 PM CST up reply actions  

i bet the arbitration officials

will be a bit behind the curve in defensive analysis.

"I've had the time of my afterlife." --Patrick Swayze

by baumann on Nov 9, 2009 11:45 AM CST up reply actions  

Doug Melvin has never gone to a hearing

I doubt he’ll start now.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2009 12:42 PM CST up reply actions  

I also had Hart at 4.5 MM

I think 4.0 might be a little more reasonable, but I was trying to be conservative, and offer higher estimates for most players, so I wasn’t grossly overestimating how much money would be available.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 7, 2009 12:46 PM CST reply actions  

Another question

None of us, SRB, Charlie Marlow, nor myself, had mentioned anything about the coaching staff. If Peterson was given an especially large contract, do you think that it could knock a million dollars off of the payroll?

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 7, 2009 12:50 PM CST reply actions  

Good call, I hadn't thought about that

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 7, 2009 6:16 PM CST up reply actions  

The one thing that really jumps out at me from the above figures

Is we are spending way too much of our payroll on relief pitching.

by Saltire on Nov 7, 2009 1:12 PM CST reply actions  

I agree...

What begins in fear usually ends in folly.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 7, 2009 4:44 PM CST up reply actions  

You KNOW I agree

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 7, 2009 6:16 PM CST up reply actions  

Isn't Looper's buyout $1MM, not $750k

Also, where did you find the Bill Hall figure?

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 7, 2009 1:22 PM CST reply actions  

I got both figures from Cot’s 2010 payroll obligations.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Sign Sheets!*

by SRB on Nov 7, 2009 1:29 PM CST up reply actions  

The Looper figure is out of date.

His buyout increased from $0.75MM to $1MM if he made 30 starts or pitched 180 Innings. He had 34 GS and 194.2 IP.

I had never seen anything about how much the Brewers owe Hall this year. I always kind of assumed the M’s bought out the rest of his contract from last year, and the Brewers are on the hook for this year. Hopefully the amount they’re paying goes to this year’s payroll.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 7, 2009 1:48 PM CST up reply actions  

here it is, from Cot's

acquired by Seattle in trade 8/19/09 after being DFA by Milwaukee 8/12/09 (Brewers to pay 2009 salary and as much as $7.15M of 2010 salary)

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 7, 2009 1:51 PM CST up reply actions  

Aha, thanks

I’ll change it in the original post and bump up Hart’s arbitration salary too, due to a consensus.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Currently ordering my #22 Carlos Gomez jersey*

by SRB on Nov 7, 2009 2:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Mildly Random:

What if Marky A and the Baseball Bunch realize that after 2011 there will likely be a ‘playoff hope drought’? What if, he says to his crew: “Hey, Brew Crew, we’re going to start the year at $90M”. Does Dougie try to sign John Lackey? Does the fact that Lackey started each of the last two seasons on the DL with arm injuries poke anyone else in the back of their brain?

To those questions, I’d assume:

Won’t happen.
No.
Yes.

But, a boy can dream.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 7, 2009 6:20 PM CST reply actions  

Would you like to expand on that?

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 8, 2009 3:46 PM CST up reply actions  

Guess not.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 8, 2009 5:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Crew will solve

the Catcher issue by acquiring Dave Ross in the Javier Vazquez deal.

"I've had the time of my afterlife." --Patrick Swayze

by baumann on Nov 9, 2009 11:48 AM CST reply actions  

Would I like to expand on that?

"I've had the time of my afterlife." --Patrick Swayze

by baumann on Nov 9, 2009 11:48 AM CST up reply actions  

awesome.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 9, 2009 12:23 PM CST up reply actions  

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