Let's Sign Mike Cameron Anyway

by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 7, 2009 12:14 PM CST in Transactions

We've got Carlos Gomez now. I haven't looked really closely at his numbers, but my first take is that it's a fair deal. The Twins get a somewhat better player for 2010 in J.J. Hardy, but we get someone who is cheaper, fills a hole, and might improve while still under team control.

But...reasonable people can disagree, and evaluating the Hardy-Gomez deal isn't my point. [Jordan just published some interesting thoughts on the deal. Even though I've rudely buried his post, go read what he has to say.]

Instead, I'd like to suggest that, against the sudden, unanimous conventional wisdom, we still re-sign Mike Cameron. (I haven't read through all the comment threads yet, so I apologize if I'm repeating somebody else's idea.)

Here are some things to consider:

1. Cameron is undervalued. (Yes, I know I'm opening up another can of worms here.) He's an elite defender, he has aged well, and he may be willing to come back to Milwaukee at a discount. If we can sign him for less than or equal to what we paid last year, we've got a deal. A much better deal than we'd get spending an equivalent amount on pitching.

2. Cameron or Gomez can play right field. The Mariners have shown the value of having elite defenders in more than one outfield spot. Cameron has played corners in his career. Center field prowess translates pretty reliably to corner outfield prowess. For those of you with a statistical bent: The positional adjustment would change, but a +10 CF would probably be +15 or so in right, so it would come close to evening out.

3. Outfield defense is important. Suppan is a fly ball pitcher. Looper is a fly ball pitcher. (Though most of his fly balls are out of reach.) If we sign Washburn, there's another one. If we're shopping for mid-rotation guys, fly ball pitchers aren't necessarily bad--IF we have an elite defensive outfield. It would make Doug Melvin's job easier, actually: Ground ball pitchers are generally more valuable than fly ball pitchers since teams stick Adam Dunn and Manny Ramirez in the outfield. (And other reasons, but I don't want to digress.) So having the freedom to sign fly ball guys would give Doug some flexibility.

4. Corey Hart is getting expensive, and he is not necessarily very good. Unlike with Hardy, I don't have a ton of faith Corey Hart being a valuable part of a contender. Yet, his name reliably comes up in trade rumors. Maybe Hart + Gamel will get us that starting pitcher. It's tough to gauge this from the outside, but I get the impression that we could receive fair value in a Hart trade.

5. Worst case scenario, we've added Gomez as a fourth OF. Maybe we can't trade Hart, but payroll hasn't really gone up. Then, depending on how the season goes, we can flip Cameron or (more probably) Hart to a team that develops a need. The outfield would be crowded, and it would prevent a Gamel move to right field, but too much talent isn't a bad thing, and I don't get the impression Gamel is shagging fly balls this offseason anyway.

Like most of my offseason proposals, I don't think this is what Doug is going to do. But I think it's what he should do.

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Comments

There's a lot of if's and dependents in this scenario.

Kind of like the way we went into the year last year:

If Gallado can become an ace.
If the staff can stay healthy.
If we can make a trade at midseason.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 7, 2009 12:22 PM CST reply actions

sure

but there’s a lot of if’s in not bringing Cam back, too — IF gomez can hit enough to justify playing every day; IF doug can find a starting pitcher who isn’t just another Looper; IF Hart stops trending toward mediocrity…

… any offseason plan for a mid-market 80-win team without a stacked farm system is going to look like this.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 7, 2009 12:26 PM CST up reply actions

The if's are more unrealistic this time around.

I see it very unlikley that Cameron would take less than $8MM as a hometown discount.

Although, It’s really not a bad idea if we can trade Hart.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 7, 2009 12:56 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah, I'd bring Cameron back

Though I defended the Hoffman deal at the time, it’s pretty foolish to pay him and let Cameron walk. If Bowden was on the table, I would’ve loved to do that deal and sign Cameron to play center. But I’d certainly be on board with this.

One issue— Cameron has to be willing to play right. I know he moved for Beltran, but I’m not sure he would take a Brewers offer to play right over another team’s offer to play center.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Nov 7, 2009 12:36 PM CST reply actions

Gomez could play right, too...

I wouldn’t make that decision myself, but I don’t think the difference would be huge. Especially since, either way, you figure the CF would shade a bit more towards left with a RF who can cover so much ground.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 7, 2009 12:44 PM CST up reply actions

Braun/Gamel

Maybe Cameron could play left center and Gomez could play right center. We could play a full time shift in the IF with Braun moving up as a second 3B. If the ball comes to him he could flip it over to the first 3B to make the throw for him.

by Ender on Nov 7, 2009 2:20 PM CST up reply actions

Interesting idea!

I hadn’t considered trading Hart, but it does make quite a bit of sense if the Brewers can get Cameron relatively cheap. Assuming similiar salaries for post-arbitration Hart and the incoming pitcher, I guess the calculus would be [Cameron + Trade Pitcher] vs. [Hart + $10 million pitcher] (to oversimplifying things).

I know there was some speculation of a Hart to Atlanta trade a while ago, and I don’t think the Braves have any good 3B options behind Old-Man Chipper. Would Hart/Gamel/+ be enough to even land the terminally-undervalued Vazquez? That would be a coup. Come to think of it, if the Brewers can pull off trading Hart/Gamel for Vazquez, I’d be OK even with Gerut starting in RF.

And given their range, maybe Gomez and Cameron can patrol RF-CF and CF-LF and Braun can take a nap out by the foul line.

(Sadly, I think Melvin has already confirmed Cameron will be leaving, and thus this won’t happen)

Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Sign Sheets!*

by SRB on Nov 7, 2009 12:37 PM CST reply actions

I don't think it would take Hart and Gamel for Vazquez

He only has one year left on his deal. I wouldn’t do that. I think they’re looking to move him, too. I’d certainly call if I was Doug.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Nov 7, 2009 12:43 PM CST up reply actions

Doug doesn't make many calls

We know that now.

"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC

by BrewHaHeather on Nov 7, 2009 12:45 PM CST up reply actions

Re: Vazquez

Sort of getting off topic now, but I wonder if the Brewers could pull something off involving just Hart or McGehee. Braves are looking for outfield and 2B, and I would give up one or both of those players in a flash even for just one year of a guy who was a 6.6 WAR pitcher last season.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Sign Sheets!*

by SRB on Nov 7, 2009 1:26 PM CST up reply actions

It'll take more than Hart and McGehee to get Javy

First off, I like Corey Hart, but he’s really not that great of a player. His UZR is pretty bad and his WAR was only 0.7. His production has also declined ever since his strong 2007 season. I like him cause he always plays the game hard, but I always feel like people overrate him a little bit.

McGehee had a fine rookie season, but he’s already 27. Chipper is gonna man 3B for at least a year and I don’t see how we would trade Javy for a backup 3B.

We don’t really need a 2B either. Unless it’s a Chase Utley type player, the Braves are set with Martin Prado. He did a fantastic job taking over 2B for Kelly Johnson.

If Vazquez is gonna be traded, i would have to think he would be paired with a prospect or two for Prince Fielder. I like Mike Cameron, but besides him, I don’t see too many other posibilites of the Braves and Brew Crew matching up in a trade…Unless you’d like to send us Ryan Braun. :)

"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"

by Scott Coleman on Nov 8, 2009 12:37 AM CST up reply actions

Maybe

1 year of a player might not get you as much as you think. We thought we’d get a lot more than Gomez for JJ Hardy.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 8, 2009 12:38 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah, but 1 year of one of the best pitchers in the NL gets you quite a bit. JJ Hardy wasn’t exactly coming off a career year.

"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"

by Scott Coleman on Nov 8, 2009 2:32 PM CST up reply actions

Interesting...

… yet improbable.

I think Cameron will have enough suitors, that being “cheap” or giving a “hometown discount” will not come into play.

I really feel the same way about Cameron as I do Hoffman — in that if DM’s plan for pitching is Doug Davis + Washburn, then spending money on Cameron and Hoffman is probably wasteful.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Nov 7, 2009 12:49 PM CST reply actions

very nice argument, though

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Nov 7, 2009 12:50 PM CST up reply actions

I would be all for bringing Cameron back

That would be one amazing outfield (except for, you know, left field). But it won’t happen. Cam is undervalued, but there are still plenty of teams who would have outbid the Brewers if they didn’t sign Gomez and tried to bing him back.

"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC

by BrewHaHeather on Nov 7, 2009 12:51 PM CST reply actions

You may be right

Obviously, if the Cubs offer $36MM over 3 years or something, we’d instantly be out of it.

More nuanced, my point is that the Gomez acquisition shouldn’t affect how hard we chase after Cam. If we were willing to pay $7MM or $8MM or $10MM or whatever, he’s worth just as much now as he was on Thursday.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 7, 2009 1:15 PM CST up reply actions

I think this is a great point

I am hoping that we are getting rid of Cam, for pitching, and certainly not Gomez.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Nov 7, 2009 1:23 PM CST up reply actions

You are dead to me Jeff

Moving on ready look forward not backwards The 2009 season is over it never happen as far as I am concerned so lets boldly look forward to the 2010 season

by WSB Chris on Nov 7, 2009 2:19 PM CST reply actions

hahaha

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 7, 2009 3:24 PM CST up reply actions

lol

should have seen that coming

dickie_thon: Third baseman Bill Hall / Watches the third strike go by / Gamel grabs his glove

by GoGregGo on Nov 7, 2009 4:25 PM CST up reply actions

In the first draft

I had a shout-out to you, but it kind of killed the flow.

Don’t worry, no one ever takes my advice. We’ll have forgotten all about Cam in a few months.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 9, 2009 9:45 AM CST up reply actions

I just want to say

The 2 players involved switched leagues. There is a real possibility that JJ stays where he is or gets worse, and Gomez puts up better numbers than before.

I’m not sayin’, but I’m just sayin’.

Be cool, and relax. Take a breath, take ten paces back.

The coolest motherfunker on the planet.

by Dikembe Meiztombo on Nov 7, 2009 4:32 PM CST reply actions

So what you're saying is...

Gomez projects for a .310 obp, instead of .300?

That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.

by Kyle Lobner on Nov 7, 2009 4:36 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Not to mention the major league numbers people are using to justifying Gomez being an offensive black hole are all from before his 24th birthday.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Currently ordering my #22 Carlos Gomez jersey*

by SRB on Nov 7, 2009 5:16 PM CST up reply actions

OBP

If Gomez can combine his .258 AVG from 2008 with his improved BB rate from 2009 he would put up an OBP of .319. Most of the bad AVG in 2009 was just BABIP so it is very plausible.

If you make a rather large assumption that he improves a little and the easier league helps him I could see a .330 OBP. That is the optimistic view of course but it is plausible.

by Ender on Nov 7, 2009 5:00 PM CST reply actions

Gomez already tried the National League and failed with the Mets. Why would he miraculously turn it around overnight? Hardy has a proven track record with one bad year at the plate. The Brewers are a weaker team today than they were last week. Good job Doug Melvin, and that.

by tannerboyle on Nov 7, 2009 6:06 PM CST reply actions

"Tried the NL..."

He played 58 games at the ripe old age of 21, after a 36 game stint in AAA.

Yeah, he surely failed in the NL.

by cwolf20 on Nov 7, 2009 6:27 PM CST reply actions

I hope

That Gomez is the every day CF. He didnt have awful luck last year, nor horribly great luck the year before, but his defense is close to 2 WAR a year value.

I think that Macha helped the Brewers learn the value of patience at the plate last year and if that can be given to Gomez as well, he winds up being a 3 WAR player. For what he will be paid and his age, thats a great contribution.

The only downside that I can see with him on this team is that his value offensively comes almost exclusively from a part of the game that Macha despises. He is a tremendous bunter and his speed is great for stealing bases.

Speaking of this $15 mil the Brewers will be saving this year with Hardy gone and Cameron as well, maybe there is a pitcher currently under contract that the Brewers make a trade for giving up little in exchange for the other teams salary dump. Like a guy like Javier Vazquez, or Carlos Zambrano, or Brandon Webb (if healthy), any one of those guys can slip into the ace or #2 spot in the rotation.

by backtocali on Nov 7, 2009 7:55 PM CST reply actions

I don't think the Cubs would trade within the division,

and especially not Zambrano (although they did sign Milton Bradley, so you never know). And I believe the Dbacks already picked up Webb’s option for next year, but I could be wrong.

"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC

by BrewHaHeather on Nov 7, 2009 10:04 PM CST up reply actions

Big Z and Webb

The Dbacks are in awful shape financially, they could still trade Webb even though they picked up his option. And from what a lot of media sources have said the past couple of years, Pinella is starting to tire with Zambrano’s work ethic and behavior, the new owners might not want to put up with him for very long. He may have a no trade clause though, not sure.

by backtocali on Nov 7, 2009 10:08 PM CST up reply actions

Pass on Big Z

08:$15M, 09:$17.75M, 10:$17.875M, 11:$17.875M, 12:$18M, 13:$19.25M vesting player option
full no-trade clause

by Getting Yosted on Nov 8, 2009 12:18 PM CST up reply actions

He is a tremendous bunter

He had five bunt hits last year in 349 plate appearances.

(And, before you say it: yes, I know he had 30 in ‘08. I’m just sayin’: he wasn’t a very good bunter last year.)

by Rubie Q on Nov 8, 2009 8:05 PM CST up reply actions

Cameron to the Braves?

We have pitching…lots of it. I don’t know how we’d match up tho.

"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"

by Scott Coleman on Nov 8, 2009 12:22 AM CST reply actions

Why'd they trade for him when they can just sign him as an FA?

by Mykenk on Nov 8, 2009 12:57 AM CST up reply actions

just kidding

i’ll be quite now. shit lol long day yesterday.

"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"

by Scott Coleman on Nov 8, 2009 11:58 AM CST up reply actions

*quiet

"Are you tryin to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?"

by Scott Coleman on Nov 8, 2009 2:55 PM CST up reply actions

"Elite defender"

Not sure about that… at least not anymore. I think he’s still above-average, but not what I would consider “elite”.

by sjlee on Nov 10, 2009 4:27 PM CST reply actions

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Cincinnati Red Reporter	27	20	.574	0	Won 2
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