Low OBP + Young Player = What Kind of Career?
With all the talk about the newest Brewer's poor hitting, I thought it would be interesting to look at some players who once found themselves in a similar position. Specifically, players in the last twenty years who had 1000+ plate appearances through their age-23 seasons and a very low on base percentage. Below is the list of the bottom fifteen such players by OBP (fifteen was a convenient break-off point between guys at .305 and .310). Below that is a table showing how each of those players' careers turned out after age 23. I think there are some pretty interesting names involved.
| Cnt | Player | Pos | Teams | From | To | Ages | PA | AB | H | HR | BB | SO | SB | CS | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cesar Izturis | SS | TOR/LAD | 2001 | 2003 | 21-23 | 1201 | 1131 | 278 | 4 | 41 | 124 | 25 | 13 | .246 | .270 | .319 | .590 |
| 2 | Alex Gonzalez | SS | FLA | 1998 | 2000 | 21-23 | 1096 | 1031 | 245 | 24 | 37 | 220 | 10 | 6 | .238 | .273 | .376 | .649 |
| 3 | Sammy Sosa | RF | TEX/CHW/CHC | 1989 | 1992 | 20-23 | 1411 | 1293 | 303 | 37 | 77 |
358 | 67 | 34 |
.234 | .282 | .380 | .662 |
| 4 | Yadier Molina | C | STL | 2004 | 2006 | 21-23 | 1033 | 937 | 223 | 16 | 62 | 91 | 3 | 6 | .238 | .291 | .342 | .632 |
| 5 | Omar Infante | IF | DET | 2002 | 2005 | 20-23 | 1309 | 1202 | 296 | 26 | 77 | 232 | 27 | 11 | .246 | .291 | .384 | .676 |
| 6 | Carlos Gomez | CF | NYM/MIN | 2007 | 2009 | 21-23 | 1102 | 1017 | 250 | 12 | 55 | 241 | 59 | 21 | .246 | .292 | .346 | .638 |
| 7 | Corey Patterson | CF | CHC | 2000 | 2003 | 20-23 | 1167 | 1094 | 284 | 33 | 43 | 266 | 39 | 9 | .260 | .293 | .419 | .712 |
| 8 | Jose Lopez | 2B | SEA | 2004 | 2007 | 20-23 | 1637 | 1524 | 397 | 28 | 60 | 200 | 11 | 8 | .260 | .295 | .379 | .674 |
| 9 | Juan Uribe | SS | COL | 2001 | 2003 | 21-23 | 1244 | 1155 | 298 | 24 | 59 | 235 | 19 | 4 | .258 | .298 | .408 | .706 |
| 10 | Andujar Cedeno | SS | HOU | 1990 | 1993 | 20-23 | 1074 | 984 | 242 | 22 | 71 | 247 | 15 | 10 | .246 | .299 | .380 | .679 |
| 11 | Cristian Guzman | SS | MIN | 1999 | 2001 | 21-23 | 1673 | 1544 | 400 | 19 | 89 | 269 | 62 | 25 | .259 | .302 | .386 | .688 |
| 12 | Jose Guillen | RF | PIT/TBD | 1997 | 1999 | 21-23 | 1449 | 1359 | 359 | 31 | 58 | 245 | 5 | 7 | .264 | .303 | .397 | .700 |
| 13 | Peter Bergeron | CF | MON | 1999 | 2001 | 21-23 | 1063 | 938 | 217 | 8 | 95 | 192 | 21 | 20 | .231 | .305 | .321 | .626 |
| 14 | Mike Caruso | SS | CHW | 1998 | 1999 | 21-22 | 1119 | 1052 | 292 | 7 | 34 | 74 | 34 | 20 | .278 | .305 | .343 | .649 |
| 15 | Alex Gonzalez | SS | TOR | 1994 | 1996 | 21-23 | 1071 | 947 | 221 | 24 | 93 | 258 | 23 | 10 | .233 | .305 | .385 | .690 |
Once again, the table below is how each player's career turned out after age 23:
| Cnt | Player | Pos | Teams | From | To | Ages | PA | AB | H | HR | BB | SO | SB | CS | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cesar Izturis | SS | 5 Tms | 2004 | 2009 | 24-29 | 2617 | 2421 | 643 | 10 | 146 | 218 | 73 | 34 | .266 | .311 | .336 | .647 |
| 2 | Alex Gonzalez | SS | FLA/CIN/BOS | 2001 | 2009 | 24-32 | 3680 | 3362 | 842 | 90 | 199 | 659 | 16 | 13 | .250 | .300 | .401 | .701 |
| 3 | Sammy Sosa | RF | CHC/BAL/TEX | 1993 | 2007 | 24-38 | 8485 | 7520 | 2105 | 572 | 852 | 1948 | 167 | 73 | .280 | .354 | .560 | .914 |
| 4 | Yadier Molina | C | STL | 2007 | 2009 | 24-26 | 1425 | 1278 | 373 | 19 | 116 | 111 | 10 | 6 | .292 | .353 | .382 | .735 |
| 5 | Omar Infante | IF | DET/ATL | 2006 | 2009 | 24-27 | 1000 | 910 | 262 | 11 | 64 | 146 | 9 | 4 | .288 | .335 | .399 | .734 |
| 6 | Carlos Gomez | CF | MIL | 2010 | ? | 24-? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 7 | Corey Patterson | CF | 5 Tms | 2004 | 2009 | 24-29 | 2591 | 2401 | 595 | 71 | 126 | 515 | 145 | 42 | .248 | .289 | .397 | .686 |
| 8 | Jose Lopez | 2B | SEA | 2008 | 2009 | 24-25 | 1340 | 1257 | 358 | 42 | 51 | 136 | 9 | 6 | .285 | .313 | .453 | .765 |
| 9 | Juan Uribe | SS | CHW/SFG | 2004 | 2009 | 24-29 | 2936 | 2681 | 687 | 103 | 160 | 513 | 19 | 31 | .256 | .299 | .440 | .739 |
| 10 | Andujar Cedeno | SS | HOU/SDP/DET | 1994 | 1996 | 24-26 | 1159 | 1067 | 243 | 25 | 72 | 241 | 11 | 7 | .228 | .285 | .352 | .637 |
| 11 | Cristian Guzman | SS | MIN/WSN | 2002 | 2009 | 24-31 | 3716 | 3473 | 962 | 41 | 156 | 451 | 59 | 41 | .277 | .309 | .386 | .696 |
| 12 | Jose Guillen | RF | 8 Tms | 2000 | 2009 | 24-33 | 4389 | 4005 | 1097 | 164 | 231 | 745 | 25 | 19 | .274 | .329 | .457 | .785 |
| 13 | Peter Bergeron | CF | MON | 2002 | 2004 | 24-26 | 193 | 165 | 32 | 0 | 24 | 60 | 10 | 4 | .194 | .296 | .236 | .533 |
| 14 | Mike Caruso | IF | KCR | 2002 | 2002 | 25 | 21 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .100 | .143 | .100 | .243 |
| 15 | Alex Gonzalez | SS | 6 Tms | 1997 | 2006 | 24-33 | 4457 | 4030 | 988 | 113 | 299 | 907 | 74 | 38 | .245 | .302 | .393 | .694 |
Obviously Sammy Sosa had by far the best career offensively. Journeyman Jose Guillen has had the second-best career. (Gee, I wonder how that happened.) Yadier Molina is a budding star and Jose Lopez is beginning to realize his power potential. Christian Guzman, Juan Uribe, and (each) Alex Gonzalez have had lengthy careers and aren't bad players, but they're hardly stars. I'm not going to touch Cesar Izturis or Corey Patterson.
Andujar Cedeno is interesting because he actually peaked at age 23. He hit well in 1993 and 1994, especially for a shortstop, but fell off a cliff following the players' strike. He was out of the majors by 27 and died in a car accident at age 31. Mike Caruso was the guy the Giants hoped Brian Bocock could be. He made the 1998 White Sox after spending 1997 in High A ball. All he did was hit .306 with 22 steals in his rookie year. He too suffered a sharp decline. You might remember Peter Bergeron's name from his time with AAA Indianapolis in 2004.
In any event, it's certainly possible for a young player to overcome a poor start offensively and turn into a decent player. Certainly good defenders get plenty of opportunities to do so. The chances of such a player turning into a star? Not very good.
I, for one, certainly wouldn't mind being surprised.
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Comments
Is that an exhaustive list?
He did start earlier, at 19 (which is a pretty huge two years), but I happened to be looking at Jose Reyes’ stats earlier today and he had a .303 OBP over his first three MLB seasons (almost 1300 PA) with a similiar BB/K ratio as Gomez.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Currently ordering my Carlos Gomez jersey*
by SRB on Nov 7, 2009 11:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
It's players who through age 23 had 1000+ PA an OBP of .305 or below (since that was a convenient cutoff for 15 players)
Reyes broke out when he was 23.
Sign Corky Miller
by TheJay on Nov 8, 2009 8:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
In any event
Adding one more success story hardly makes me optimistic.
Sign Corky Miller
by TheJay on Nov 8, 2009 8:48 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
"Obviously Sammy Sosa had the best career offensively."
So we let Carlos cork his bat and send him overseas for a couple of years so he can roid himself out of his mind!
Is it fair to conclude that Gomez was rushed to the majors and his offensive numbers might be lower as a result?
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 8, 2009 9:49 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Yep.
But I’m kind of wondering if now we have him twice.
At least this Rickie Weeks is a plus defender while he tries to get his bat to come around.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 8, 2009 11:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Plus defender?
Fielding percentages of .976, .975 and .964 over the past three seasons puts him near the bottom of all MLB second basemen. At best, he’s average.
by sjlee on Nov 10, 2009 4:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I believe "this"
was the indicator that he was referring to Gomez, not the actual player with the actual name “rickie weeks”
by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 10, 2009 6:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, now that makes sense.
“this Rickie Weeks” = Gomez
by sjlee on Nov 11, 2009 4:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Corey Patterson fact
Patterson career best WAR: 4.9
Hardy career best WAR: 4.9
Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Currently ordering my Carlos Gomez jersey*
by SRB on Nov 8, 2009 5:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Really?
Come on…
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 8, 2009 7:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He's right.
Here’s the FanGraphs link.
I didn’t realize CoPat had a 33.8 UZR/150 year. That’s astounding.
by Rubie Q on Nov 8, 2009 7:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Should've kept him and traded Hardy for something else, I guess
Sign Corky Miller
by TheJay on Nov 8, 2009 7:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No I was 'come on-ing'
at the ridiculously out of context facetious post.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2009 12:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
How is it out of context?
Corey Patterson had comparable total value for the four years (by age) that we have Gomez for (which, full disclosure, included an absolutely atrocious 2005; though that may have been aggravated by his previous knee injury and his getting treated like dirt and jerked around between MLB/AAA by the Cubs) as Hardy has had over the last four seasons of his career.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Currently ordering my Carlos Gomez jersey*
by SRB on Nov 9, 2009 12:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
What, are you using WAR?
And you’re going to say that Corey Patterson = J.J. Hardy?
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2009 1:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
Take the three best years from Patterson’s age 24-27 seasons, and the three best years from Hardy’s career (I’m excluding the aberration “down” years from both of them):
Patterson total WAR: 10.6
Hardy total WAR: 11.0
Just because Patterson started his career with a low OBP doesn’t mean he was destined to be a mediocre player. I’d say knee injuries and never again getting a consistent chance to start after his terrible experience with the Cubs organization hurt his career and his ability more than any inherent lack of potential.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Secretly, I am Carlos Gomez*
by SRB on Nov 9, 2009 1:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You realize you're comparing Corey Patterson to an elite defensive player at a defensive premium position?
And then, you’re going to discount that, of players at that position, only Hanley Ramirez has been consistently better offensively, right?
Why are you comparing Hardy and Patterson anyway? It was Gomez who the Brewers traded for. Context, after all.
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2009 1:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't he start around 120 games each year after leaving the Cubs?
And I really don’t know what you mean by him being jerked between MLB & AAA. Are you thinking of Felix Pie?
Sign Corky Miller
by TheJay on Nov 9, 2009 9:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He got sent down to AAA by the Cubs in 2005 and when his replacement got injured they called up some scrub instead of him, causing a famous row between him and the club. And he was a starter in Baltimore after leaving Chicago, where he put up very respectable numbers.
Is it really relevant? You act as if Corey Patterson is a joke, but even if Gomez puts up Patterson-numbers it’s not a bad return for Hardy…
Patterson eventually lost all of his value because his defense fell off a cliff, not something I expect we have to worry about having Gomez for four years in his mid-twenties.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Secretly, I am Carlos Gomez*
by SRB on Nov 9, 2009 11:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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