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Low OBP + Young Player = What Kind of Career?

With all the talk about the newest Brewer's poor hitting, I thought it would be interesting to look at some players who once found themselves in a similar position.  Specifically, players in the last twenty years who had 1000+ plate appearances through their age-23 seasons and a very low on base percentage.  Below is the list of the bottom fifteen such players by OBP (fifteen was a convenient break-off point between guys at .305 and .310).  Below that is a table showing how each of those players' careers turned out after age 23.  I think there are some pretty interesting names involved.

 

CntPlayerPosTeamsFromToAgesPAABHHRBBSOSBCSBAOBPSLGOPS
1 Cesar Izturis SS TOR/LAD 2001 2003 21-23 1201 1131 278 4 41 124 25 13 .246 .270 .319 .590
2 Alex Gonzalez SS FLA 1998 2000 21-23 1096 1031 245 24 37 220 10 6 .238 .273 .376 .649
3 Sammy Sosa RF TEX/CHW/CHC 1989 1992 20-23 1411 1293 303 37 77
358 67 34
.234 .282 .380 .662
4 Yadier Molina C STL 2004 2006 21-23 1033 937 223 16 62 91 3 6 .238 .291 .342 .632
5 Omar Infante IF DET 2002 2005 20-23 1309 1202 296 26 77 232 27 11 .246 .291 .384 .676
6 Carlos Gomez CF NYM/MIN 2007 2009 21-23 1102 1017 250 12 55 241 59 21 .246 .292 .346 .638
7 Corey Patterson CF CHC 2000 2003 20-23 1167 1094 284 33 43 266 39 9 .260 .293 .419 .712
8 Jose Lopez 2B SEA 2004 2007 20-23 1637 1524 397 28 60 200 11 8 .260 .295 .379 .674
9 Juan Uribe SS COL 2001 2003 21-23 1244 1155 298 24 59 235 19 4 .258 .298 .408 .706
10 Andujar Cedeno SS HOU 1990 1993 20-23 1074 984 242 22 71 247 15 10 .246 .299 .380 .679
11 Cristian Guzman SS MIN 1999 2001 21-23 1673 1544 400 19 89 269 62 25 .259 .302 .386 .688
12 Jose Guillen RF PIT/TBD 1997 1999 21-23 1449 1359 359 31 58 245 5 7 .264 .303 .397 .700
13 Peter Bergeron CF MON 1999 2001 21-23 1063 938 217 8 95 192 21 20 .231 .305 .321 .626
14 Mike Caruso SS CHW 1998 1999 21-22 1119 1052 292 7 34 74 34 20 .278 .305 .343 .649
15 Alex Gonzalez SS TOR 1994 1996 21-23 1071 947 221 24 93 258 23 10 .233 .305 .385 .690

 

Once again, the table below is how each player's career turned out after age 23:

CntPlayerPosTeamsFromToAgesPAABHHRBBSOSBCSBAOBPSLGOPS
1 Cesar Izturis SS 5 Tms 2004 2009 24-29 2617 2421 643 10 146 218 73 34 .266 .311 .336 .647
2 Alex Gonzalez SS FLA/CIN/BOS 2001 2009 24-32 3680 3362 842 90 199 659 16 13 .250 .300 .401 .701
3 Sammy Sosa RF CHC/BAL/TEX 1993 2007 24-38 8485 7520 2105 572 852 1948 167 73 .280 .354 .560 .914
4 Yadier Molina C STL 2007 2009 24-26 1425 1278 373 19 116 111 10 6 .292 .353 .382 .735
5 Omar Infante IF DET/ATL 2006 2009 24-27 1000 910 262 11 64 146 9 4 .288 .335 .399 .734
6 Carlos Gomez CF MIL 2010 ? 24-? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
7 Corey Patterson CF 5 Tms 2004 2009 24-29 2591 2401 595 71 126 515 145 42 .248 .289 .397 .686
8 Jose Lopez 2B SEA 2008 2009 24-25 1340 1257 358 42 51 136 9 6 .285 .313 .453 .765
9 Juan Uribe SS CHW/SFG 2004 2009 24-29 2936 2681 687 103 160 513 19 31 .256 .299 .440 .739
10 Andujar Cedeno SS HOU/SDP/DET 1994 1996 24-26 1159 1067 243 25 72 241 11 7 .228 .285 .352 .637
11 Cristian Guzman SS MIN/WSN 2002 2009 24-31 3716 3473 962 41 156 451 59 41 .277 .309 .386 .696
12 Jose Guillen RF 8 Tms 2000 2009 24-33 4389 4005 1097 164 231 745 25 19 .274 .329 .457 .785
13 Peter Bergeron CF MON 2002 2004 24-26 193 165 32 0 24 60 10 4 .194 .296 .236 .533
14 Mike Caruso IF KCR 2002 2002 25 21 20 2 0 1 2 0 0 .100 .143 .100 .243
15 Alex Gonzalez SS 6 Tms 1997 2006 24-33 4457 4030 988 113 299 907 74 38 .245 .302 .393 .694

Obviously Sammy Sosa had by far the best career offensively.  Journeyman Jose Guillen has had the second-best career.  (Gee, I wonder how that happened.)  Yadier Molina is a budding star and Jose Lopez is beginning to realize his power potential.  Christian Guzman, Juan Uribe, and (each) Alex Gonzalez have had lengthy careers and aren't bad players, but they're hardly stars.  I'm not going to touch Cesar Izturis or Corey Patterson.

Andujar Cedeno is interesting because he actually peaked at age 23.  He hit well in 1993 and 1994, especially for a shortstop, but fell off a cliff following the players' strike. He was out of the majors by 27 and died in a car accident at age 31.  Mike Caruso was the guy the Giants hoped Brian Bocock could be.  He made the 1998 White Sox after spending 1997 in High A ball.  All he did was hit .306 with 22 steals in his rookie year.  He too suffered a sharp decline.  You might remember Peter Bergeron's name from his time with AAA Indianapolis in 2004.

In any event, it's certainly possible for a young player to overcome a poor start offensively and turn into a decent player.  Certainly good defenders get plenty of opportunities to do so.  The chances of such a player turning into a star?  Not very good.

I, for one, certainly wouldn't mind being surprised.

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Comments

Display:

Is that an exhaustive list?

He did start earlier, at 19 (which is a pretty huge two years), but I happened to be looking at Jose Reyes’ stats earlier today and he had a .303 OBP over his first three MLB seasons (almost 1300 PA) with a similiar BB/K ratio as Gomez.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Currently ordering my Carlos Gomez jersey*

by SRB on Nov 7, 2009 11:21 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

In any event

Adding one more success story hardly makes me optimistic.

Sign Corky Miller

by TheJay on Nov 8, 2009 8:48 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

"Obviously Sammy Sosa had the best career offensively."

So we let Carlos cork his bat and send him overseas for a couple of years so he can roid himself out of his mind!

Is it fair to conclude that Gomez was rushed to the majors and his offensive numbers might be lower as a result?

What begins in fear usually ends in folly.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 8, 2009 9:49 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yep.

But I’m kind of wondering if now we have him twice.

At least this Rickie Weeks is a plus defender while he tries to get his bat to come around.

What begins in fear usually ends in folly.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 8, 2009 11:51 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Plus defender?

Fielding percentages of .976, .975 and .964 over the past three seasons puts him near the bottom of all MLB second basemen. At best, he’s average.

by sjlee on Nov 10, 2009 4:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I believe "this"

was the indicator that he was referring to Gomez, not the actual player with the actual name “rickie weeks”

by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 10, 2009 6:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

yup

I had to read through it a few times to pick that up.

Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".

by tcyoung on Nov 10, 2009 10:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Okay, now that makes sense.

“this Rickie Weeks” = Gomez

by sjlee on Nov 11, 2009 4:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Corey Patterson fact

Patterson career best WAR: 4.9

Hardy career best WAR: 4.9

Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Currently ordering my Carlos Gomez jersey*

by SRB on Nov 8, 2009 5:43 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Really?

Come on…

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 8, 2009 7:12 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He's right.

Here’s the FanGraphs link.

I didn’t realize CoPat had a 33.8 UZR/150 year. That’s astounding.

by Rubie Q on Nov 8, 2009 7:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

No I was 'come on-ing'

at the ridiculously out of context facetious post.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2009 12:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

How is it out of context?

Corey Patterson had comparable total value for the four years (by age) that we have Gomez for (which, full disclosure, included an absolutely atrocious 2005; though that may have been aggravated by his previous knee injury and his getting treated like dirt and jerked around between MLB/AAA by the Cubs) as Hardy has had over the last four seasons of his career.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Currently ordering my Carlos Gomez jersey*

by SRB on Nov 9, 2009 12:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What, are you using WAR?

And you’re going to say that Corey Patterson = J.J. Hardy?

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2009 1:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Sure

Take the three best years from Patterson’s age 24-27 seasons, and the three best years from Hardy’s career (I’m excluding the aberration “down” years from both of them):

Patterson total WAR: 10.6
Hardy total WAR: 11.0

Just because Patterson started his career with a low OBP doesn’t mean he was destined to be a mediocre player. I’d say knee injuries and never again getting a consistent chance to start after his terrible experience with the Cubs organization hurt his career and his ability more than any inherent lack of potential.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Secretly, I am Carlos Gomez*

by SRB on Nov 9, 2009 1:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You realize you're comparing Corey Patterson to an elite defensive player at a defensive premium position?

And then, you’re going to discount that, of players at that position, only Hanley Ramirez has been consistently better offensively, right?

Why are you comparing Hardy and Patterson anyway? It was Gomez who the Brewers traded for. Context, after all.

I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."

~Jeff Sackmann

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2009 1:48 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Didn't he start around 120 games each year after leaving the Cubs?

And I really don’t know what you mean by him being jerked between MLB & AAA. Are you thinking of Felix Pie?

Sign Corky Miller

by TheJay on Nov 9, 2009 9:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

He got sent down to AAA by the Cubs in 2005 and when his replacement got injured they called up some scrub instead of him, causing a famous row between him and the club. And he was a starter in Baltimore after leaving Chicago, where he put up very respectable numbers.

Is it really relevant? You act as if Corey Patterson is a joke, but even if Gomez puts up Patterson-numbers it’s not a bad return for Hardy…

Patterson eventually lost all of his value because his defense fell off a cliff, not something I expect we have to worry about having Gomez for four years in his mid-twenties.

Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Secretly, I am Carlos Gomez*

by SRB on Nov 9, 2009 11:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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