TheJay recently posted a list of players with similarly low OBP to Gomez and how their careers panned out.  I was also taking a look at how Gomez's numbers stacked up to another current player who had a comparable career so far both statistically and in terms of their scouting reports as prospects; the Mariners' Franklin Gutierrez (his .307 OBP in the first three seasons of his MLB career missed TheJay's cutoff, as did his 23-25 age).  Here's what I saw (please excuse the lack of formatting):

Gomez - Rookie (2004, age 18)    - 239 PA - .281 AVG - .324 OBP - .407 SLG - .184 BB/K
Gutierrez - Rookie (2001, age 18) - 258 PA - .269 AVG - .324 OBP - .389 SLG - .410 BB/K

Gomez - A (2005, age 19)    - 539 PA - .275 AVG - .331 OBP - .376 SLG - .364 BB/K
Gutierrez - A (2002, age 19) - 419 PA - .283 AVG - .345 OBP - .456 SLG - .348 BB/K

Gomez - AA (2006, age 20)   - 486 PA - .281 AVG - .350 OBP - .423 SLG - .280 BB/K
Gutierrez - AA (04-05, 21-22) - 724 PA - .278 AVG - .343 OBP - .440 SLG - .344 BB/K

Gomez - AAA (2007, age 21)   - 153 PA - .287 AVG - .366 OBP - .412 SLG - .650 BB/K
Gutierrez - AAA (06-07, 23-24) - 596 PA - .295 AVG - .376 OBP - .448 SLG - .548 BB/K

Gomez - MLB1 (2007, age 21)    - 139 PA - .232 AVG - .288 OBP - .304 SLG - .300 BB/K
Gutierrez - MLB1 (2006, age 23) - 141 PA - .272 AVG - .288 OBP - .360 SLG - .110 BB/K

Gomez - MLB2 (2008, age 22)    - 614 PA - .258 AVG - .296 OBP - .360 SLG - .180 BB/K
Gutierrez - MLB2 (2007, age 24) - 301 PA - .266 AVG - .318 OBP - .472 SLG - .270 BB/K

Gomez - MLB3 (2009, age 23)    - 349 PA - .229 AVG - .287 OBP - .337 SLG - .310 BB/K
Gutierrez - MLB3 (2008, age 25) - 440 PA - .248 AVG - .307 OBP - .383 SLG - .310 BB/K

They're quite similar players, really.  Gutierrez has an obvious edge in power, but by all accounts Gomez actually has a stronger build and more "raw power" (why he hasn't shown any of it is another question).  Gomez is also different from Gutierrez in that he's considerably faster and more highly-touted on the bases.  What I find most interesting:

1) Their OBP are extremely similar at every level.  Gutierrez only pulls more than ten or so points away when comparing their second MLB years - when he was the age Gomez will be going into next season.  I wasn't sure if it made more sense to compare their lines by age or by level, but in either case the similarities are apparent and show an improvement from Gutierrez in his age 24 season.

2) Their combined BB/K ratios over their first three years in the MLB are relatively similiar.  I didn't list them, but their K% are also quite similar with Gomez actually having an edge over Gutierrez.

3) The clear advantage Gutierrez has is in his power (as rather crudely measured here by SLG).  But if you go by age instead of year (which makes sense, since I think there's a pretty strong consensus that power develops as players get into their mid-later twenties) the large gap by level disappears.  Gutierrez put up a .360 SLG in the MLB at age 23, Gomez put up a .360 SLG at age 22 and dropped off a bit at age 23 with a .337 (when his whole offensive game suffered for not getting a chance to start every day).  At age 24 (Gomez's 2010) Gutierrez slugged .472 - though it's obviously unreasonable to expect that big of a jump from Gomez.

Why is this interesting? Maybe it's not, I just though I would compare Gomez to a fellow centerfielder with a similar play-type and scouting report.  Gutierrez is arguably a much better defender than even Gomez, and clearly has shown more power (18 HR last season).  But Gomez has room to grow defensively and has a huge edge in Gutierrez in SB-potential. 

It's also interesting to note, just for fun, the season Gutierrez had in 2009:  aided by an admittedly freak defensive season (29.1 UZR!) something we certainly shouldn't expect from Gomez (nor should it really be expected again from Gutierrez) - Gutierrez was by far the most valuable centerfielder in the major leagues, worth 5.9 WAR and $26.4 million.  Even if you drop his UZR to a more realistic 20 (what he put up in 2008, and maybe a very optimistic ceiling for Gomez's ability) he would have still been somewhere around tied with Matt Kemp for the most valuable CF in the game.

Am I saying we should expect such phenomenal numbers as Gutierrez posted in 2009 anytime soon from Gomez?  Not at all; he clearly still needs a lot of work on his plate discipline, on his ability to translate his supposed raw power into in-game results, and also on his baserunning to compensate for his lack of power. 

What I am saying, however, is that the legions of commentators (not necessarily on this site, but extending even to quite a few "professional analysts") who are writing Gomez off as a career defensive replacement, a poor player, or a failed prospect - and of the Hardy/Gomez trade as a laughable Twins coup in terms of value - can easily be proven wrong in the next few years.

I get the criticism of the trade I'm seeing here on BCB, and I'm not really sure it was a smart trade by Melvin myself, but Gomez is here now and I for one am quite excited to have such a promising young player on the team; even if the lack of a pitching return from Hardy is initially underwhelming.