Looking back at community projections: Shortstops
by KLSnow on Nov 9, 2009 2:00 PM CST
in Statistical Analysis
23 comments
Let's continue to work our way around the diamond with a look at another very disappointing position: shortstops.
Projections:
J.J. Hardy
Projected: .281/.347/.455
Actual: .229/.302/.357
Alcides Escobar
Projected: .263/.308/.359
Actual: .304/.333/.368
Craig Counsell
Projected: .231/.322/.332
Actual: .285/.357/.408
If you've just now noticed that J.J. Hardy had a disappointing season, I'm sorry. Hardy underachieved our expectations by 143 OPS points. possibly the single largest gap between expectations and reality on the 2009 Brewers.
Meanwhile, the sample size is small, but Alcides Escobar exceeded our expectations in all three slash lines, and cemented his status as the Opening Day shortstop for 2010.
Speaking of small sample sizes: There's probably nothing too this, but check out Craig Counsell's splits by defensive position in 2009:
| Pos. | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| as 2B | 206 | .266 | .322 | .408 | .739 |
| as 3B | 134 | .333 | .410 | ,470 | .881 |
| as SS | 94 | .253 | .290 | .333 | .624 |
| as PH | 25 | .313 | .542 | .375 | .917 |
Counsell had a career year in 2009, and his numbers were good at second, great at third and incredible (in a small sample) as a pinch hitter. Yet somehow he was terrible as a shortstop. I'm not sure if that's relevant or just a small sample size quirk, but I thought I'd share it and let you decide for yourself.
Playing Time
| Player | Projected % | Actual % | Diff |
| J.J. Hardy | 87.9% | 67.1% | -20.8% |
| Craig Counsell | 6.9% | 13.6% | +6.7% |
| Alcides Escobar | 5.3% | 19.3% | +14% |
Clearly, Hardy's underwhelming performance had something to do with him getting significantly less playing time, although his service time may also have had something to do with it. Escobar didn't play as much as many of us thought he should when Hardy was back in September, but still contributed nearly four times as often as we expected him to.
Again, when these projections were made Craig Counsell had yet to re-sign with the Crew. Many of us projected him to play anyway, but he likely would have gotten a larger share of the projection if we'd been sure he'd be back.
Overall:
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| Projected | .277 | .344 | .442 | .785 |
| Actual | .247 | .306 | .356 | .662 |
| Difference | -.030 | -.038 | -.086 | -.123 |
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Counsell
CC cooled off quite a bit in August/September. Was he playing more SS than the other positions during those months?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Nov 9, 2009 2:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
... and 10 in August
This counts games where he played multiple positions.
by Mykenk on Nov 9, 2009 2:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
We should try to trade Hardy
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Nov 9, 2009 5:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah he sucks, huh?
I don’t have a category for "washed-up guys who may or may not be dominant big-league closers sometime soon."
~Jeff Sackmann
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 9, 2009 7:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
At SS
Counsell exceeded expectations with the exception of OBP. So, what’s the complaint there? Yeah, he wasn’t Braun or Fielder, but he wasn’t as much of a black hole of suck that we expected coming off the bench.
by PagsBrewCrew on Nov 9, 2009 7:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'm not saying he was an exceptional disappointment, or even that the data is exceptionally relevant.
I just find it very interesting that Counsell was a productive major league hitter while playing two positions, but significantly worse at a third.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by KLSnow on Nov 9, 2009 9:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
My guess
Counsell gets a 2-year deal worth $6 million, with a club option for 2012.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Nov 9, 2009 8:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I can't see them giving him two years.
That’d be a mistake. I’m guessing one with a mutual option for a second.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by KLSnow on Nov 9, 2009 9:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Ummmm...no?
Both teams would have to agree that he should return for the option to be exercised.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by KLSnow on Nov 9, 2009 9:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Both sides, rather.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by KLSnow on Nov 9, 2009 9:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Can you really see the Brewers saying no to the ageless wonder?
Sign Corky Miller
by TheJay on Nov 9, 2009 9:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Really? Oh. Guess that's not how I thought they worked.
Thought Varitek’s option was a mutual option. So in his (Varitek’s) case, the team had an option and the player had an option, but there was no mutual option?
That’d make more sense for CC then.
by Mykenk on Nov 10, 2009 8:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think I read somewhere
For a mutual option, I think the team decides to exercise its option or not, and then the player decides if that amount is acceptable.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Nov 10, 2009 8:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
That's correct.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
by KLSnow on Nov 10, 2009 9:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
pretty much the same thing as a 1 year deal.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
by tcyoung on Nov 9, 2009 10:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You can't see a 2-year deal?
We gave Suppan 4 worth more than $41 million.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Nov 9, 2009 10:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
$6 million
Payable over 30 years.
Sign Corky Miller
by TheJay on Nov 9, 2009 9:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I like it.
With a clause that says when he physically can’t play anymore he just shifts over to manager.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. *Secretly, I am Carlos Gomez*
by SRB on Nov 9, 2009 11:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Need to add in incentives though
Like 1 million for 100 games started.
That way Macha will start him 100 times over every player to get him his money.
by SgtClueLs on Nov 10, 2009 1:40 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
Most people are worse as pinch-hitters, often because players disproportionately face good relievers in PH situations. So CC’s PH numbers are (relative to average) even better than they look.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Nov 10, 2009 8:21 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
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