Thursday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Dec 10, 2009 10:20 AM CST
in News
48 comments
Some things to read while remembering that "port" is "left."
Welcome to day one of the Randy Wolf era (FanShot). He'll make $29.5 million over the next three seasons, plus an option for 2010. Reaction to the deal has come from everywhere:
- Miller Park Drunk credits the Brewers for signing the best available free agent.
- Master Reid of Quevedo at the Buffet says it's a gamble the Brewers had to take at this point.
- Erik Manning of FanGraphs explains why this deal shouldn't be compared to the Jeff Suppan signing.
- Jordan also offered his thoughts on that topic, and reasonable expectations for Wolf.
- Adam McCalvy noted that Wolf's deal is the third richest for a pitcher in team history.
- Jorge Says No! says the Brewers are "going for it" in 2010.
- Babes Love Baseball thinks the Brewers overpaid for him.
- Aaron Gleeman says he'd rather have the deal Rich Harden signed with the Rangers.
- Wolf's contract inspired Rob Neyer to write a two parter on the economics of player salaries.
- Meanwhile, Diamond Leung has a quote from Wolf about the divorce situation with the McCourts that might have led to Wolf's departure from Los Angeles.
But, the Brewers weren't done there: They decided to burn a little extra money by overpaying for bullpen help. The result is a two-year, $7.5 million deal for LaTroy Hawkins (FanShot). The move ensures the Brewers will have at least three pitchers in their bullpen earning more than $3.5 million next season (Hoffman, Riske and now Hawkins), as well as two pitchers with closing experience, both of which are 37 or older. Two more links on Hawkins: one good, one bad.
- Aaron Gleeman notes that Hawkins has posted a 3.35 ERA over the last six seasons, in 379 innings.
- Brian McTaggart quoted Hawkins as being "very disappointed" about leaving Houston, which is pretty much exactly what you don't want to hear from a guy you just threw a lot of perfectly good money at.
Both signings and a few other topics came up in Doug Melvin's MLB Network interview last night, which Tristarscoop chronicled for us, in case you missed it.
Since then, Doug Melvin's had an interesting 12 hours or so. First, a valet lost the keys to his car. Then, after presumably getting a ride back to the meetings, Melvin raised his offer to Craig Counsell. Melvin seems confident a deal will get done, and if he's saying so, that means he's pretty sure. Counsell has also spoken to the Reds, but it doesn't sound like there's much happening there.
Meanwhile, what once looked like a sure thing still isn't done: Mark Mulder remains unsigned, and now the Royals are also showing interest in his services.(h/t MLB Trade Rumors)
The Brewers also filled one more spot on their 40 man roster, selecting Indians lefty Chuck Lofgren in the Rule 5 Draft (FanShot). In a later post, Baseball America called him one of the best stories taken. It sounds like he's had a rough couple of years, but he's a big, athletic lefty who throws hard (90-93), so he's exactly the kind of pitcher the Brewers should be seeking out to work with Rick Peterson.
Can't get enough Triple G? Batter's Box Interactive has some photos from a Gregg Zaun at bat in Toronto last season. Zaun was also the starting point for today's Thursday Thinker: stop back for that at noon.
You still have a few hours to cast your vote for a second baseman on our BCB All Decade Team. Voting for that position closes at 4 today. Prince Fielder officially became the first Brewer elected to the team yesterday. Voting for a shortstop opened yesterday and closes at 4 tomorrow. Voting at third base, perhaps the most depressing interesting choice on the team, will open at 4 today.
Around baseball:
Astros: Acquired reliever Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins for two minor leaguers and a PTBNL, and signed Brandon Lyon to a three year, $15 million deal.
Mariners: Signed Corey Patterson to a minor league deal. (FanShot) Also re-signed infielder Josh Wilson.
Mets: Re-negotiated their contract with Henry Blanco, due to concerns over the health of his shoulder.
Orioles: Acquired Kevin Millwood from the Rangers for reliever Chris Ray and a PTBNL.
Padres: Released pitcher Eulogio de la Cruz.
Rangers: Agreed to terms on a one year, $7.5 million deal with Rich Harden, with a club option for 2011 and acquired Mike Lowell from the Red Sox for catcher Max Ramirez.
Rays: Acquired Rafael Soriano from the Braves for reliever Jesse Chavez.
Red Sox: Acquired Boof Bonser from the Twins for a PTBNL or cash.
Royals: Released Mike Jacobs and pitcher John Bale
Tigers: Designated pitcher Freddy Dolsi and catcher Dusty Ryan for assignment.
Two former Brewers continue to search for work, and for once I'd rather have Jay Gibbons. Jason Kendall has received a two-year offer from the Royals, while Gibbons is drawing interest from the Dodgers.
While some players are looking for new teams. J.J. Hardy is busy making friends with his. He recently played in Harmon Killebrew's golf tournament, and the Hall of Famer had some nice things to say about him.
Easily the biggest trade at the meetings so far has been the three way deal involving the Tigers, Yankees and D-Backs. A lot of people are burying Arizona for giving up on Max Scherzer, but Patrick Sullivan of The Baseball Analysts and I agree: The Diamondbacks might come out ahead in this deal, trading a pitcher with an unsure future for two that might pitch in their rotation this season. Meanwhile, no one seems to mention that the Yankees traded two starters and a center fielder for one player.
Ever wonder what folks in minor league front offices do during the offseason? I don't know, but the Timber Rattlers' premiere episode of The Offseason would suggest they have some time on their hands.
With Jason Kendall gone, I guess we probably won't be talking about plunkings as much, and that's probably ok. With that said, Jeremy Greenhouse of The Baseball Analysts has a look at the probability of getting hit by a pitch, and what matchups and velocities make a batter most likely to get plunked.
It's been a pretty busy week at the Winter Meetings, and the flow of information has been dizzying at times. Just imagine how fast information would flow out if the internet was working.
Still looking for a gift for someone this holiday season? I might have a suggestion for you. Boys of Summer is a documentary chronicling Robert Cochrane and his father's summer long road trip to visit all 30 major league parks. The film is now available on DVD for the first time, with all proceeds going to the Michael J. Fox Foundation to help support research on Parkinson's Disease.
On this day in 1986, the Brewers sent Tim Crews and Tim Leary to the Dodgers for first baseman Greg Brock. Brock would go on to hit .261/.348/.387 over five seasons as a Brewer.
Happy birthday today to Doug Henry, who turns 46. Henry pitched the first four seasons of his major league career (1991-1994) as a Brewer, racking up 61 saves.
Drink up.
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Fun Link for the rest of you
Have you ever wanted the sentence you just typed to be sung back to you by words from famous songs?!? Me either!!! but there’s a site for that
enjoy
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
Nobody's mentioning that the Yankees traded 2 pitchers and a CF..
That’s because it doesn’t really effect the Yanks. They have enough elite pitching as it is, so they basically traded a young CF for a CF who is currently better. They can find replacement pitching elsewhere; those guys weren’t going to make the rotation. Next year, when Pettitte is gone, they’ll snatch up one of the big name guys, like Lee, Halladay, Beckett, Vazquez, or Webb
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
2 starters?
I don’t believe that Coke will ever be a starter and Kennedy is a pretty big question mark.
Evaluations of Austin Jackson are all over the map and his ceiling is probably what Granderson is now. They gave up a lot in quantity, but I"m not sure if they really gave up a lot of impact players.
Get a ife broseph
I didn't say starters...
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
agreed
i think that most people see “solid regular” as jackson’s upside at this point, not “all star”. of course, these things are fickle and maybe he can improve. but kennedy wasn’t ever going to be in the rotation mix, with the steady stream of FA and joba and phil ahead of him. to the yankees, these are spare parts.
as for AZ, you’d guess that they think something’s up with max’s delivery or that he’s as good as he’s going to get. but if that’s the case, they probably could’ve gotten more bids in on him. in fact, there’s a midwestern NL team that has a pitching need…
by Capt Science on Dec 10, 2009 11:20 AM CST up reply actions
Although,
he can likely hit lefties better than Grandy can right now.
by Braunstalker on Dec 10, 2009 11:22 AM CST up reply actions
unlike another new centerfielder
his stinking against lefties is offset by hitting righties…
lots of analyses on how right field in Yankee Stadium III might impact Granderson, too.
by Capt Science on Dec 10, 2009 11:29 AM CST up reply actions
would affect be the right word there instead of effect?
i need to know for personal reasons
"Cubs fans boo again – 99% of these people can’t see the plate." -Ueck
You're correct. Affect is the verb, effect is the noun.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
You're right,
but not for that reason. Effect can be a verb as well as a noun, but in this case, affect is right.
The Diamondbacks might come out ahead in this deal, trading a pitcher with an unsure future for two that might pitch in their rotation this season. Meanwhile, no one seems to mention that the Yankees traded two starters and a center fielder for one player.
If the winner of the trade was the one who got the most players, then I’d agree…. but that’s not how it works. Scherzer is already better than Jackson, younger, and cheaper.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Did you read the article?
Scherzer is younger and cheaper, but there’s also a growing suspicion he’ll have to be moved to the bullpen to stay healthy. If the D-Backs got two starting pitchers for a reliever, no matter how good he is, they win.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
I guess to be fair
They also sent Daniel Schlereth.
Although two starters for two bullpen arms I’d say D’Backs still win.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 10, 2009 4:31 PM CST up reply actions
Favorite Quote from Todays Collection comes from the Wolf Fangraph article
Unlike Suppan – whose repertoire consists of junk and a prayer
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
just more fodder for FDM
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
ouch...
Looking to buy: General Manager Deputy Badge
by Bush League All Star on Dec 10, 2009 11:44 AM CST up reply actions
Just A Note...
The Lowell deal isn’t done yet.
Also, I believe Wolf’s option is for 2013 ;)
Baseball prospectus
has a new article up on the Brewers’ moves. (subscription required)
the jist is:
Nearly all of the savings from the Hardy/Gomez trade are used up by the addition of Wolf and Hawkins…, but the pitching upgrade seems to far outweigh the reduction in offense incurred to pay for it… Combined with the 8.4 run loss associated with Gomez and Escobar, the net result of the trade and signings is about 40 runs, or a gain of four wins.
(caveat)
much of that analysis is based on last year’s numbers and the article goes on to say that wolf “smells like a career year” and there may have been better ways to do it. but i took it as generally supportive of DM’s moves.
by Capt Science on Dec 10, 2009 11:40 AM CST up reply actions
Hmmm
Yeah, just read that article. Very interesting stuff.
Krunk hypothesizes that it adds up to 2 more wins for the Brewers next year, which would make them 82-80 (probably not a playoff team).
He says that the players who would have been cheaper, and provided more help were Rich Harden, Jason Marquis and Jon Garland.
I think the big thing to be wary of with Wolf is the huge BABIP lift he had last year in addition to pitching in Dodger Stadium, if he inputs a correction there, maybe even drops that down to only 1 win. Heck if you take it further, what are the chances that Fielder and Braun repeat their offensive numbers, or that McGehee does?
Which brings me back to my original point from the beginning on this signing. If you are going to “improve” the team for next year (i.e. push for a playoff spot), your probably not going to get that with Wolf. And if Wolf is your best bet, then you probably dont have a good shot at that playoff spot. And then the best bet is to proceed with The Plan®, and make a Fielder move.
I dont think DM really knows how to work The Plan®. Hes under a lot of pressure to “win now” and appear to make strides in that area, and hes probably going to wind up losing his job because of it.
i don't disagree
i’m just trying to show a balanced view. a number of folks on this site are supportive of the moves. i don’t like them, but i think i am stuck on there being better moves out there. but at the end of the day, these aren’t bad moves and may even be good ones.
by Capt Science on Dec 10, 2009 12:47 PM CST up reply actions
The problem with "playing the games".
As little meaning as a pitcher’s win-loss record has, they have much more individual control over the team win-loss in their starts than most other players.
The Hardball Times did an interesting study a couple years ago, showing that ERA being held equal, an inconsistent pitcher (Sometimes shuts the opponent down, sometimes average, other times gets knocked around) wins a team more games than a consistent pitcher (3 runs per start, for example). But the simple fact is, you can’t use any statistics to accurately determine how many “wins” a pitcher is going to be worth to a team (see Sabathia, CC).
An additional factor is bullpen fatigue. If Wolf makes it through the 6th or 7th inning in most starts, then he could add wins on days he’s not pitching because our ’pen is able to go out there and secure the victory the day after he pitched.
It’s a tough one to call, but I like what someone said about the three year deal…screw 2012, we need to win in 2010 or 2011, and we’ll eat his salary in 2012 for the chance. Not that I should be surprised given DM’s tenuous hold on his job, but I’m excited that they actually seem to be going for it.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
I don’t think Marquis and Garland would have been cheaper. Marquis made almost $10M last season and will likely get a raise because he had a solid season. Garland will likely get a comparable contract to Wolf.
I doubt Garland will get three years
But he might get something close to what Wolf would have gotten if not for the Brewers – 2 years, $15-18.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Why even read Baseball Prospectus anymore if they're using last year's numbers for analysis?
That’s pathetic. I would be embarrassed to post that weak of an analysis here.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Arguable.
Certainly, there are a variety of projections available already.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
I have no problem with it
They have their own proprietary analysis that simply hasnt been performed yet this year.
If all things are equal, which I believe is stated in the article, intelligent people can make their own judgements about it.
So just use last years?
There are many better ways of projecting future performance than using last years numbers. At least use career averages. And this is BP, they invented a projection system. I expect better.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
embarassed?
it’s an illustrative point that is in the media. if you want to debate he merits of the analysis, that’s fine. if you want to call BP(2009) inferior to BP(a few years ago), that’s fine. but to say something shouldn’t be posted because it doesn’t use your specific approach or methodology is… i guess the nice way to put it is that it’s a very young viewpoint.
by Capt Science on Dec 10, 2009 5:38 PM CST up reply actions
Well I'm saying that it's bad analysis
If they’re dealing with specific run values, it’s just not practical at all to use last year’s numbers. I could get in to why but it’s been established many, many times already.
Side note: referring to my age while questioning my baseball knowledge is something I don’t take kindly to, surprisingly.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
To be fair
He didnt reference your age when talking about your baseball knowledge. He brought that up in the way that you debate. Its two separate issues.
If people have a problem with what I say that's fine, they can tell me
Keep age out of it. That’s it.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Here's a discouraging quote
from The Mustache:
Indianapolis – Brewers general manager Doug Melvin said this morning that he planned to meet in January with left-hander Mark Mulder about launching a comeback attempt in Milwaukee.
Mulder has barely pitched since 2006 because of ongoing arm problems and surgeries but worked in his rehab program this year with new Brewers pitching coach Rick Peterson. The Brewers think Mulder is worth taking a chance on as a low-risk acquisition. They’d offer him a minor-league deal with incentives to pitch in the majors and see what he has left.
This isn’t the “second starter” the Brewers are seeking before spring training. It’s merely an opportunity to maybe catch lightning in a bottle if Mulder gets back to form. Melvin met with his agent, Greg Clifton, here at the winter meetings to discuss Mulder, who would like to stay with Peterson.
Melvin said he and Peterson would probably visit Mulder in Arizona in January. In the meantime, the Brewers are examining Mulder’s medical records. Melvin said if he is satisfield with the medicals, he won’t ask Mulder to throw for the Brewers before signing him.
As for the possibility of adding another starter, Melvin said, "If we can, we’d like to. We might not be able to. We’re always looking to improve the club.
“We’re trying to keep flexibility to do things we can do. The worst thing you can do is lose flexibility.”
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
Wow, blockquote fail
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 10, 2009 4:33 PM CST up reply actions
Aaaand nevermind
It appears to be work-computer-IE-fail, rather than blockquote.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 10, 2009 4:33 PM CST up reply actions
Just a note...
Since the “no arbitration for anyone”, there haven’t been any Face-Palms. Buyer’s remorse for paying too much, yeah…but nothing face-palm worthy. It’s a rather pleasant surprise, except for the nagging feeling that the real face-palm is yet to come.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
I don't think we can afford a major face-palm
A face-palm-worthy move like signing Jarrod Washburn or Joel Pineiro are probably out of the budget now that Wolf has signed.
"A D+ Grade? That must have been a Wittardo grade"- @73_MC
by BrewHaHeather on Dec 10, 2009 9:47 PM CST up reply actions
Non-tendering Gerut and trading Corey Hart to the Mets, not for John Maine, but for Luis Castillo as 2B depth and speed
Then talking about needing a corner outfielder. Although that would be headdesk-worthy.
There is still the trading market...and Melvin's big mouth.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
57 | 46 | .553 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
St. Louis
|
56 | 46 | .549 | 0.5 | Lost 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
48 | 55 | .466 | 9 | Lost 2 |
|
Chicago
|
46 | 56 | .450 | 10.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
42 | 59 | .415 | 14 | Won 2 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
36 | 65 | .356 | 20 | Lost 1 |
(updated 7.30.2010 at 4:51 AM CDT)
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
